Goldman Sachs has once more revised upward its outlook for oil prices, pointing to sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and a heightened structural risk profile in global supply as the principal reasons behind a more bullish stance.
The bank is now working from an assumption that transit through the Strait of Hormuz will operate at roughly 5% of normal volumes for a period of six weeks, followed by a one-month, gradual recovery. Goldman says that this prolonged interruption, combined with the fact that global production and spare capacity are heavily concentrated, will alter market dynamics and support higher prices.
Daan Struyven, who leads Goldman research on oil markets, framed the shift as an adjustment to risk perceptions. He said that "a recognition of the risks from the high concentration of production and spare capacity is likely to lead to structurally higher strategic stockpiling and long-dated prices."
In the near term the bank expects the price trajectory to move upward while uncertainty persists. Struyven said that "Prices are likely to trend higher… until the market gains confidence that a lengthy disruption is unlikely," and he added that a "growing risk premium" would be required to restrain demand and provide insurance against possible shortages.
Reflecting those dynamics, Goldman now forecasts Brent crude to average $110 per barrel in March-April, a meaningful increase from its prior projection of $98 and a marked step up from 2025 levels. The firm also raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $85 from $77 and sees West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $79. Goldman said these adjustments reflect both a deeper drawdown in commercial inventories and a repricing of effective spare capacity as markets incorporate heightened risk.
The most recent set of revisions follows an earlier March 11 update in which Goldman lifted its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent and WTI forecasts to $71 and $67 per barrel, respectively, from $66 and $62.
Looking further out, Goldman projects Brent will average $80 in 2027 but cautions that upside risks are material. In scenarios where flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely restricted for an extended period, the bank said that "daily Brent prices would likely exceed their 2008 record."
Goldman also outlined a "severely adverse scenario" in which a sustained loss of Middle East supply prompts an initial spike in Brent before prices settle around $115 by late 2026. The bank emphasized that even less extreme outcomes could leave prices elevated for an extended period as markets reprice risk and adjust inventories and capacity assumptions.
Overall, Goldman argues that the combination of prolonged transit disruptions, concentrated spare capacity and lower inventories will push both near-term and longer-dated crude prices higher than previously expected, with a larger risk premium required to balance the market.
Market context limitations: The bank's revised outlook is driven by its stated assumptions about Hormuz flows, inventory draws and spare capacity repricing. Where the situation evolves differently from those assumptions, outcomes may vary.