Germany’s public coffers collected more in taxes in 2025 than in the prior year, but the increase did not meet the expectations set out by the country’s council of tax experts, according to the finance ministry’s monthly report released on Thursday.
Total tax revenue across federal and state governments for 2025 amounted to 901.8 billion euros, representing a 4.7% rise compared with 2024. The council of tax experts had projected a slightly larger increase, expecting receipts to reach 903.7 billion euros - an anticipated gain of 5.0%.
The ministry’s figures show that tax inflows in December alone were 115.5 billion euros, up 2.0% from the same month a year earlier. That monthly result forms part of the overall annual outcome that fell short of the experts’ forecast by 1.9 billion euros.
Alongside the revenue data, the finance ministry highlighted changes to the country’s economic outlook. Germany - Europe’s largest economy - has reduced its growth projections for both the current year and the following year. The ministry attributed the downward revisions to heightened uncertainty around global trade and to the observation that certain economic and fiscal policy measures have not taken effect as quickly as previously assumed.
Those two factors - external trade uncertainty and a slower-than-expected policy transmission - were specifically cited as the reasons for trimming growth expectations. The ministry’s report does not add further numerical detail on the revised growth forecasts in this release, but underscores the connection between weaker-than-expected revenue gains and the broader economic environment described above.
The report presents a clear picture: tax revenue rose in absolute and percentage terms compared with 2024, yet the pace of the increase was modestly below the council of experts’ projection, and December’s monthly growth was positive but limited. The ministry links the revenue and economic outlook developments to external trade risks and the timing of policy effects.
Key points
- Total 2025 tax revenue: 901.8 billion euros, up 4.7% from 2024.
- Council of tax experts had forecast 903.7 billion euros, an expected 5.0% increase.
- December tax receipts: 115.5 billion euros, a 2.0% year-on-year rise.
Sectors impacted
- Public finance and budget planning, given the divergence from expected revenues.
- Broader markets and economic outlook, in light of the lowered growth forecasts.
Risks and uncertainties
- Heightened uncertainty over global trade, which the ministry cites as a reason for downgraded growth projections - this can affect trade-exposed sectors.
- The delayed impact of economic and fiscal policy measures, noted by the ministry as a factor for slower-than-expected improvements in activity and revenues.
- Potential for continued shortfalls versus expert forecasts if underlying economic conditions or policy transmission remain weak.