Fundecitrus on Friday released its initial forecast for the 2026/27 orange harvest in Brazil's principal producing regions, estimating a 12.9% decline from the previous season to 255.20 million 40.8-kg boxes. The projection covers the orange-producing areas of São Paulo and Minas Gerais.
Brazil is the world's largest exporter of orange juice, and the Fundecitrus forecast attributes the anticipated fall in output to a combination of factors. According to the research group, natural biennial production cycles, climate conditions and the spread of greening disease are driving the weaker outlook in the coming season.
Fundecitrus data indicate that greening disease now impacts 47.6% of orange trees across the citrus belt. The group said the disease reduces orchard productivity and is a major factor behind lower expected yields.
The forecast explains that output will decline primarily because trees are expected to produce fewer fruits and to experience greater premature fruit drop. Those negative effects are projected to more than offset two positive factors noted by Fundecitrus: an increase in average fruit weight and a higher productivity level in some trees.
This first official estimate for the harvest outlines the balance of forces the industry faces in 2026/27: gains in fruit size and productivity in parts of the belt will not be sufficient to counteract the combined impacts of biennial production dynamics, adverse climate influences and a significant incidence of greening disease.
Fundecitrus' figures and the explanation of drivers provide the sector with an early signal of a notably smaller crop in the key São Paulo and Minas Gerais production zones for the coming season.