Fitch Ratings expects Poland's fiscal shortfall to remain close to 7% of gross domestic product in 2026, mirroring the level recorded last year. Milan Trajkovic, Fitch's lead analyst on Poland, made the projection on Wednesday, underscoring a protracted period of elevated deficits before a slow reduction begins.
Trajkovic said: "When it comes to Poland, we are seeing fiscal deficits of around 7% last year and in 2026 as well." The agency anticipates that the deficit will ease gradually after that point - to roughly 6.5% or 6.3% in 2027 - and will slip to just below 6% in 2028.
Fitch's outlook also points to a rising debt burden. The analyst expects Poland's general government debt to reach 70% of GDP in 2027. Reflecting concern about the trajectory, Trajkovic noted that "for the first time, we do not see Polish general government debt stabilising in the medium term."
That absence of stabilization, the agency warns, opens the door to a potential sovereign rating downgrade. Fitch identifies three pathways through which such a downgrade could occur: a lack of additional fiscal consolidation measures, a slowdown in economic growth, or a sharp rise in the cost of servicing public debt.
On monetary policy, Fitch sees limited scope for further reductions in interest rates. The agency's baseline expects only a single 25 basis point cut in 2026 and one more 25 basis point cut in 2027, indicating modest easing compared with previous periods of policy adjustment.
Taken together, Fitch's projections sketch a picture of narrowly constrained policy options for Poland. Elevated deficits and increasing public debt coexist with only limited room for monetary loosening, while the agency highlights concrete scenarios that could worsen fiscal metrics and prompt rating action.
Readouts and outlook
- Fitch expects a prolonged period of fiscal deficits near 7% of GDP in 2026, with a gradual decline to just under 6% by 2028.
- General government debt is forecast to reach 70% of GDP in 2027, and the agency does not see debt stabilising in the medium term.
- Monetary easing is expected to be limited: one 25 basis point cut in 2026 and another in 2027.