A recent survey from the European Travel Commission shows a changing composition of tourists visiting Europe, with travellers from China and India expected to cushion a slowdown in arrivals from the United States.
The commission projects international arrivals to the continent will climb 6.2% overall. Within that forecast, arrivals from China are expected to increase by 28% compared with 2025, while visitors from India are forecast to rise by 9%. By contrast, traveller numbers originating in the Americas are seen growing by only 4.2%.
An earlier study by the same industry group highlighted a weaker intent among Americans to travel to Europe in 2026 compared with 2025. That trend was attributed in the study to worsening economic concerns and geopolitical instability, factors cited as reasons for lower travel intent among core American travellers.
Data from aviation intelligence platform Cirium provide further context on shifting booking patterns. Cirium reported that, between October 7 and the end of January, bookings from Europe to the United States fell 14.2% year-on-year, while bookings from the United States to Europe declined 7.3% over the same period.
Despite the moderation in demand from American travellers, the survey shows continued strength in long-haul travel and in spending per visitor. Travel spending in Europe is set to have risen by 9.7% in 2025, according to the European Travel Commission.
That spending pattern is echoed in reports from major European carriers. Airlines such as Lufthansa and Air France-KLM have reported a steady rise in bookings for premium cabins, while economy class bookings for transatlantic travel have fallen. The contrast between premium and economy demand suggests tourists still choosing Europe are skewing toward higher-value, experience-focused trips.
"Europe continues to stand out as a reliable destination, well-positioned to respond to evolving demand for more flexible travel and experience-led journeys," said Miguel Sanz, head of the European Travel Commission, in a statement.
The outlook for carriers and travel-related businesses will be watched closely in coming months. Air France-KLM is scheduled to report full-year results for 2025 on Thursday, a milestone that market observers often use to gauge where demand and revenue mix are heading for long-haul operations.
Overall, the survey paints a picture of growth that is geographically uneven but maintains upward momentum for the European travel sector. Strong rebounds from China and India appear set to offset softer growth from the Americas, while rising per-visitor spending and a tilt toward premium travel help sustain revenues for airlines and destination economies.