Euro-area households reduced some of their inflation forecasts in January, according to the European Central Bank's latest monthly Consumer Expectations Survey, while expectations for income growth picked up slightly.
The survey, which covered 19,000 adults across 11 euro zone countries, found that consumers' view of inflation over the next 12 months fell to 2.6% in January from 2.8% in December. Expectations for price growth five years out also eased, dropping to 2.3% from 2.4%. Forecasts for inflation three years ahead remained unchanged at 2.6%.
These revised expectations come against a backdrop in which euro zone inflation has hovered close to the European Central Bank's 2% objective for much of 2025 and slipped below that threshold in the most recent month. The survey noted that inflation is likely to stay at comparatively low levels through the current year, reflecting declines in energy prices and the continued availability of relatively cheap imports, especially from China.
With headline inflation largely under control, the ECB has not put policy shifts on the table in recent months. The survey summary also reported that some policymakers are increasingly concerned that inflation could be too low in future years rather than posing an upside risk.
Alongside softer inflation expectations, household outlooks for income growth rose modestly: respondents raised their one-year income growth expectation to 1.2% from 1.1%. At the same time, consumers left their expectations for economic growth unchanged, a sign that households still expect the currency bloc to show resilience.
The survey commentary linked the relatively stronger near-term economic performance to firms adapting to sudden policy shifts abroad, noting that overall growth has outperformed expectations in recent quarters as companies adjust to volatility brought about by the quickly shifting nature of the Trump administration's tariff regime in the United States.
Key takeaways
- Short-term consumer inflation expectations eased to 2.6% from 2.8%.
- Five-year inflation expectations fell to 2.3% from 2.4%; three-year expectations held at 2.6%.
- Income growth expectations edged up to 1.2% from 1.1%; economic growth expectations were unchanged.
Survey scope: 19,000 adults across 11 euro zone countries, surveyed in January.