Global economic growth is forecast to be 3.0% in 2026, matching the projection made a year earlier, according to a quarterly poll of economists. The unchanged consensus comes amid abrupt changes in how the United States trades with other countries and treats long-standing partners - developments that have injected considerable uncertainty into business planning.
Although the headline forecast has held steady, a wide range of views converging on the same number at a time of geopolitical and trade upheaval has raised concerns among some forecasters that risks may be building beneath the surface. Many respondents said they expect the consequences of the U.S. tariffs announced last year to continue unfolding, and they noted the added uncertainty of a pending Supreme Court decision on the tariffs' legality.
Poll scope and recent revisions
The poll covered 220 economists worldwide. In recent months a majority of those economists revised their 2026 growth forecasts upward, reflecting a mix of stronger-than-expected activity and reassessments of downside risks. The poll was conducted from January 6 to January 28.
Among the risks highlighted by respondents, "further geopolitical shocks" was named the principal downside threat at a moment when most central banks are done or nearly done cutting interest rates. A sharp correction in frothy global equity markets - which reached record highs again during the polling window - ranked as the second-largest risk cited by economists.
How growth drivers and headwinds are balancing out
Some forecasters point to a trio of AI-related forces as important upside contributors that have helped offset headwinds such as trade fragmentation, demographic pressures and high government debt. Continued strong U.S. investment in artificial intelligence, together with a short-term boost from expected tax rebates, are seen as factors that could further lift U.S. growth even as questions remain about the labour market's strength.
"Upside surprises to global growth are very welcome given all the geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties over the past year, but this is not a global economy that is firing on all cylinders," wrote economists at HSBC. "Many of the upside surprises to growth have been delivered by three AI-related driving forces which are offsetting headwinds from trade fragmentation, weakening demographics and high government debt."
Impact of U.S. tariff policy and market reaction
Last April, a major change in U.S. trade policy - the imposition of large tariffs on many economies including close allies, and an erratic use of tariffs as a negotiating tool - created sharp dislocations. Asset prices fell, prompting forecasters in April to cut their near-term views; 2025 growth forecasts were revised down to 2.7% and 2.8% for the current year at that time. Those downward adjustments were notable in their size and prompted warnings that recession risks were rising.
Since then, however, as transatlantic ties have weakened and new alignments have emerged while countries seek to diversify trade in response to U.S. tariffs, median forecasts have been revised back up. The poll shows the median forecast for 2025 has been raised to 3.2%, and 2026 is again at 3.0%. A like-for-like analysis in the poll found that 80% of economists upgraded their 2026 global growth forecasts in the last three months.
Some forecasters described this recalibration as an admission that the immediate adjustments to tariffs and trade shifts were smoother than earlier expected. Nathan Sheets, global chief economist at Citi, summarized the shift in tone by saying the adjustment was smoother than anticipated and that forecasters were re-evaluating their stances rather than persistently downgrading.
Country-level projections
- United States - The U.S. economy is now expected to expand by an average of 2.3% in 2026, up from 1.8% in October and 2.0% a year earlier.
- Euro zone - Forecasts for the euro area have remained unusually steady, with 2026 growth pencilled in at 1.2%, a touch above the 1.1% expectation in October but effectively unchanged from the projection a year ago.
- China - Economic growth in China is forecast at 4.5% for 2026, up from 4.2% a year earlier.
- India - The poll recorded an upward revision in India driven by unexpectedly strong recent growth data, contributing to broader upward adjustments across many economies.
Across 50 economies covered by the poll, median 2026 growth forecasts rose for 28 economies, were unchanged for 10, and were downgraded for 12 compared with the October poll.
Outlook and lingering uncertainties
Forecasters stress that while headline growth estimates have recovered from the trough of last spring, a number of important uncertainties remain. The full economic impact of large U.S. tariffs is still unfolding, and the Supreme Court decision on their legality could add fresh volatility. The potential for further geopolitical shocks remains the principal downside risk cited by economists, and elevated equity valuations create the possibility of a sharp market correction.
In this environment economists say producing numerical forecasts has become more difficult as policy shifts ripple through trade networks and investor sentiment. The broad conclusion from the poll is that global growth this time next year is expected to be similar to what forecasters predicted a year ago, but that steadiness masks a complex and uncertain backdrop that could alter the trajectory if new shocks emerge.