Chilean economists surveyed by the Central Bank expect the central bank to hold its benchmark interest rate at 4.50% at the upcoming policy meeting, according to the institution's monthly poll.
The panel's year-end projection for 2026 is unchanged, with the policy rate seen at 4.50% at the end of that year. Respondents on average expect the rate to remain at 4.50% for 11 months before easing to 4.25% in 23 months.
Market participants polled in the survey also provided currency and growth projections. The Chilean peso is forecast to trade at 870 CLP per USD in 11 months, with a slight strengthening to 860 CLP per USD expected in 23 months.
Economic growth estimates were left intact in the survey. Gross domestic product is projected to expand 2.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, reflecting a steady outlook among the economists queried.
On inflation, the survey shows economists expect consumer prices to rise 0.4% month-over-month in May. The year-end inflation outlook for 2026 remains at 4.3%. The projection for 2027 was nudged up to 3.1%, from 3.0% in the previous survey.
The survey results provide a snapshot of professional expectations for key macro indicators - interest rates, exchange rates, growth and inflation - over the near and medium term. They indicate an anticipation of a stable monetary stance in the near term and gradual easing of the policy rate after roughly a year at current levels.
Contextual notes
- The rate path implied by respondents suggests no immediate tightening or loosening at the next meeting, with a gradual decline targeted in the second year of the forecast horizon.
- Currency forecasts point to a modest appreciation of the peso between the one-year and two-year marks assessed by the economists.
- Inflation forecasts show a small upward revision for 2027 while leaving the 2026 year-end estimate unchanged.
These survey results are a compilation of the expectations reported by the economists who participated in the Central Bank's monthly poll. They reflect the views captured at the time of the survey and are subject to revision in future publications.