An analysis published in the European Central Bank's Economic Bulletin concludes that the lion's share of the financial burden from recent U.S. tariffs falls on domestic importers and U.S. consumers, with exporters absorbing only a small portion of higher tariff-related costs. The study frames the tariff changes as both a direct cost shift and a drag on trade volumes, which in turn delivers a negative shock to exporters.
The ECB article notes that the U.S. introduced a broad set of tariffs on most trading partners last year. That policy change generated debate among economists over who would ultimately shoulder the costs, after the Trump administration said exporters would be the ones to pay. According to the bulletin, however, that has not been the observed outcome.
"Exporters to the United States are absorbing only a small fraction of higher tariff-related costs," the ECB write-up states. "Their costs are falling mostly on domestic importers and consumers." The study finds that the U.S. consumer currently bears about one-third of the tariff-related cost. It adds that this consumer share could climb to more than half over the longer term as U.S. firms run out of ability to absorb additional costs.
Using that trajectory, the ECB estimates that in the longer term U.S. firms would absorb roughly 40% of higher tariff costs, with the remaining burden shifting to importers and consumers. The bulletin emphasizes the dynamic nature of cost absorption as firms' margins and pricing power evolve in response to sustained tariff pressure.
The analysis also highlights an important transmission channel beyond price incidence: trade volumes. The ECB warns that European exporters are not exempt from adverse effects because import volumes respond materially to higher duties. For product categories that continue to be traded under tariffs, the paper reports that a 10% rise in duties is associated with a 4.3% fall in import volumes.
That estimated elasticity of import demand implies a notable contraction in trade flows when duties increase, compounding the direct cost shifts and creating headwinds for exporters who face reduced overseas demand. The bulletin therefore portrays tariffs as producing both immediate distributional effects across consumers, importers and firms, and secondary volume-driven shocks to exporters.
Clear summary
The ECB's Economic Bulletin finds U.S. consumers and domestic importers absorb most tariff costs now, with consumers paying about one-third today and potentially more than half over time; exporters take a small share, and a 10% rise in duties correlates with a 4.3% fall in import volumes for affected product categories.
Key points
- U.S. consumers currently pay about one-third of tariff-related costs; this share could exceed 50% over time as firms' capacity to absorb costs wanes - sectors affected: consumer spending, retail.
- Domestic importers carry a large portion of the tariff burden alongside consumers - sectors affected: importers, wholesale, logistics.
- A 10% increase in duties is estimated to reduce import volumes by 4.3% in product categories still traded under tariffs, creating negative demand effects for exporters - sectors affected: export-oriented manufacturing and trade.
Risks and uncertainties
- Shifting of costs to consumers risks reducing household real purchasing power and could depress consumer-facing sectors such as retail and services.
- Declines in import volumes may lead to weaker external demand for exporters, especially in European export sectors that sell into the U.S. market.
- There is uncertainty about how long U.S. firms can continue to absorb tariff-related costs; if their capacity to do so falls, the consumer share of the burden may rise further, affecting consumption-driven parts of the economy.