Economy January 29, 2026

Dollar Set for Second Weekly Drop as Geopolitical Strains Weigh on Demand

Tariff threats tied to Cuba and reports of potential strikes on Iran push investors away from the greenback amid modest domestic support from a Senate deal and steady Fed policy

By Ajmal Hussain
Dollar Set for Second Weekly Drop as Geopolitical Strains Weigh on Demand

The U.S. dollar looked headed for a second consecutive weekly decline as new tariff threats related to Cuba and rising tensions across multiple geopolitical fronts eroded demand for U.S. assets. Reports that the White House is considering strikes on Iran spurred an oil price jump and put additional pressure on the dollar index. Domestic developments - including a Senate agreement to avoid a partial government shutdown and the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady - offered limited support. Tokyo core inflation slowed but remained at the Bank of Japan's target, and major currencies and cryptocurrencies posted small moves against the dollar.

Key Points

  • Geopolitical developments - including a U.S. executive order threatening tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba and reports of contemplated strikes on Iran - have reduced demand for the U.S. dollar, pressuring the currency across markets; impacted sectors include foreign exchange markets and the energy sector.
  • Domestic U.S. developments provided limited support: a Senate deal to avoid a partial government shutdown and the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates steady after Chair Jerome Powell described the economy as solid; impacts are felt in currency markets and investor risk sentiment.
  • Major currencies and digital assets saw modest moves: the dollar index fell into a weekly decline despite a small intraday gain to 96.35; the euro, sterling, yen, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar all weakened slightly, while bitcoin and ether posted minor declines.

Global political tensions and policy signals combined on Friday to keep the U.S. dollar on course for a second weekly decline. New tariff threats tied to countries supplying oil to Cuba were among recent moves that have added to strains already affecting investor appetite for the greenback.

The White House said President Donald Trump signed an executive order that would impose tariffs on nations that provide oil to Cuba. That action arrived alongside recent geopolitical pressures involving Iran, Venezuela, Greenland and Europe, all of which have contributed to a softer tone for U.S. assets.

Heightened concern over possible military action also hit markets. Reports that President Trump is weighing strikes against Iran - including options that would target security forces and leaders - prompted a noticeable rise in oil prices and further weighed on the dollar index (DXY). Trump described naval forces in the region as an "armada" sailing to Iran, according to sources cited in reports.

Still, Washington delivered a modest positive signal on the domestic front when negotiators in the Senate reached a deal that would avert a partial government shutdown. Investors also parsed the Federal Reserve's recent decision to leave interest rates unchanged, a move that briefly supported the greenback after central bank chair Jerome Powell characterized the economy as solid and said risks to inflation and employment had diminished.

Market reaction was mixed during the session. The dollar index - which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies - rose 0.2% to 96.35 on the day, narrowing its weekly decline to 1.1%.

Currency pairs showed small shifts. The euro slipped 0.2% to $1.194, while sterling declined 0.1% to $1.3791. The Japanese yen eased 0.17% to 153.39 per dollar. Earlier in the week the dollar had hit a four-year low after President Trump appeared to be dismissive of the currency's weakness, though it recovered some ground following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's remark that Washington maintains a strong-dollar policy.

Mantas Vanagas, a senior economist at Westpac Group, observed in a note that the DXY "continued its downward trend, as Trump’s threats of military action in Iran added further pressure." The greenback had ended last week with its largest weekly fall since last April, a decline that analysts linked in part to market concerns over U.S. policy toward Greenland.

The dollar's retreat has provided some relief to the battered Japanese currency. The yen traded largely in a 152 to 154 per dollar range for most of the week, driven in part by discussion of rate checks from both the U.S. and Japan - a step often viewed as a possible precursor to currency intervention.

Economic data from Japan showed core consumer prices in Tokyo rose 2.0% in January from a year earlier, according to Friday's release. That was a slowdown from the previous month but matched the central bank's target.

Elsewhere in foreign exchange, the Australian dollar weakened 0.2% against the greenback to $0.7033 and the New Zealand dollar fell 0.2% to $0.6066.

Cryptocurrencies moved slightly lower. Bitcoin slipped 0.1% to $84,309.27, and ether edged down 0.3% to $2,808.19.


Overall, a combination of fresh tariff-related policy, heightened military risk perceptions and mixed domestic signals left the dollar softer over the week, even as pockets of support emerged from steady Fed policy and averted fiscal disruption in Washington.

Risks

  • Escalation of military action or further threats related to Iran could push oil prices higher and deepen downward pressure on the dollar, affecting energy and foreign exchange markets.
  • Implementation of tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba could add to geopolitical and trade tensions, with potential knock-on effects for commodity and currency markets.
  • Uncertainty around U.S. policy signals and past concerns - such as those linked to Greenland - may continue to stoke volatility in global asset markets, particularly for the greenback and currencies tied to intervention talk, like the yen.

More from Economy

House Prepares Vote to End Brief Partial Shutdown, Final Ballot Expected Tuesday Feb 2, 2026 France’s 2026 Budget Clears Parliament After Concessions, Targets 5% Deficit Feb 2, 2026 Cboe Holds Early Talks to Bring Binary Options Back to Retail Traders Feb 2, 2026 Administration to Build $12 Billion Critical Minerals Reserve to Shield U.S. Manufacturing Feb 2, 2026 Investors Pile Into Gold and Miner ETFs in January as Safety Demand Rises Feb 2, 2026