The Czech National Bank's policy board could consider a modest easing of interest rates at its meeting next week, Vice‑Governor Jan Frait said in an interview on Monday. While domestic data point toward a need for tighter monetary settings, Frait identified external pressures as the decisive topic for the upcoming deliberations.
"In my view the external forces are exactly what the meeting will be and should be about... it is a very, very strong set of factors," he said, underscoring his view that global monetary developments will shape the CNB's conversation.
The CNB last lowered its main repo rate to 3.50% in May 2025, a move that halved the rate from its prior level before the bank paused further adjustments. Earlier guidance from the board had suggested the next step might be higher rates, but in December the board revised its assessment of upside risks to achieving the CNB's 2% inflation target from "inflationary" to "neutral."
Frait cautioned that several domestic considerations point in the opposite direction of easing. He highlighted the local recovery, a tight labour market, ongoing wage growth and a looser fiscal stance as factors that support keeping policy rates elevated. "Labour market and wage developments were truly an argument for maintaining relatively higher interest rates," he said.
Balancing these domestic pressures against international trends, Frait indicated the bank expects rates to be largely stable over the year or to fall by, at most, 50 basis points. The CNB's policy meeting on February 5 will include fresh economic forecasts to accompany any decision on rates.
Frait also stressed the value of pre‑emptive policy action but did not reveal how he would cast his vote at the meeting.
Summary
The CNB board may discuss a small easing at its February 5 policy meeting as Vice‑Governor Jan Frait places emphasis on external developments that could prompt large central banks to cut rates. Domestic indicators such as labour market tightness and wage growth favour higher rates, and the CNB's most recent rate cut to 3.50% occurred in May 2025. The board's assessment of inflationary risks moved to "neutral" in December, and Frait signalled that policy could remain broadly unchanged this year or be eased by up to 50 basis points.
Key points
- The CNB last cut its main repo rate to 3.50% in May 2025.
- External global factors are likely to drive the discussion at the February 5 meeting.
- Domestic recovery, tight labour market and wage growth argue for keeping rates higher.
Risks and uncertainties
- External monetary developments could push large central banks to cut rates, creating pressure on the CNB to consider easing - relevant for fixed income and banking sectors.
- Domestic labour market tightness and wage pressures increase the risk that loosening policy could undermine inflation objectives - relevant for consumer-facing industries and wage-sensitive sectors.
- The board's revised assessment from "inflationary" to "neutral" reflects uncertainty about inflation dynamics and complicates rate-path expectations for markets.