SINGAPORE, March 25 - Currency markets moved with restrained momentum in early Asian trade on Wednesday as investors processed contradictory accounts about U.S. efforts to resolve the conflict with Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that progress was being made in talks with Tehran, but Iran denied that direct negotiations had occurred, leaving markets cautious.
The euro inched up 0.1% to $1.1619 while most other major currency pairs showed little net change. The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.3428, and the New Zealand dollar was flat at $0.5834.
Volatility in foreign exchange was modest compared with sharper moves elsewhere. Equity futures rallied and crude oil prices plunged after Trump said on Tuesday the U.S. was making progress toward negotiating an end to the war. Commenting on market reaction to repetitive headlines about diplomatic developments, Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd in Melbourne, said: "For those reacting to every breaking headline around dialogue between the U.S. and its allies and Iran, including speculation of high-level talks and temporary ceasefire proposals, an element of fatigue is now firmly setting in."
Against the yen, the U.S. dollar held steady at 158.645 yen following publication of minutes from the Bank of Japan’s January policy meeting. The minutes showed that many BOJ board members saw the need to keep raising interest rates, though they did not commit to a specific pace for future increases.
The Australian dollar initially slipped as much as 0.2% to $0.6983 before recovering to trade flat after February inflation data was released. The report showed a 3.7% rise in inflation prior to the start of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, a slightly slower pace than some analysts had expected.
Market expectations for U.S. monetary policy were shifting despite a prevailing view that rates would remain unchanged this year. Fed funds futures pointed to a 30.2% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, up sharply from 8.2% a day earlier, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
On the Fed's stance, Governor Michael Barr said on Tuesday that the central bank may need to keep interest rates steady "for some time" before cutting policy rates, citing inflation that remains above the Fed’s 2% target and the risks arising from the conflict in the Middle East.
Bond markets steadied after a volatile spell, with the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury down 5 basis points at 4.338%. Analysts at Westpac noted that higher oil prices had contributed to expectations of increased inflationary pressure and the prospect of tighter monetary policy.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six currencies, eased 0.1% to 99.126. In digital assets, bitcoin rose 1.2% to $70,910.16 while ether gained 0.8% to $2,164.74.
The mix of muted currency moves, shifting Fed-policy odds and renewed sensitivity to geopolitical headlines left traders appearing cautious as they balanced incoming economic data with uncertain diplomatic signals.
About the reporting
The coverage reflects market movements, central bank commentary and recent macroeconomic releases reported during early Asian trading hours. Where available, market-implied probabilities and specific price levels have been cited to convey investor positioning.