Finance chiefs at U.S. companies reported a brighter view of the near-term economy during the first months of the year, according to a quarterly survey conducted by the Federal Reserve banks of Atlanta and Richmond together with the Duke University Fuqua School of Business. The poll of 473 chief financial officers found that most firms expected revenue and employment to rise in the coming 12 months, alongside continued pressure to raise prices.
The survey was carried out between February 17 and March 5 and was gathered largely before the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and the subsequent strikes that pushed oil above $100 a barrel and created disruptions to shipping and travel in the Middle East. The timing of the fieldwork means the published results do not show a clear split in sentiment between respondents who answered before or after U.S. airstrikes began on February 28.
Tariffs and trade policy remained the single biggest concern among those polled, though the proportion of CFOs naming these issues has declined from nearly 40% in mid-2025 to just over 20% in the latest survey. The earlier peak coincided with aggressive proposals for import taxes that were later reduced or struck down.
Other prominent worries included labor quality and availability, cited by 17% of respondents, and the sales outlook, cited by 15% of respondents. Despite these headwinds, the overall tone of the survey was constructive leading into 2026. "Business expectations for both demand and hiring in 2026 held up," said Sonya Ravindranath Waddell, vice president and economist with the Richmond Fed, in commentary released with the survey. "Most firms expected demand to increase in the next 12 months and reported continued hiring ... Very few firms expected declining demand or a need to lay off workers."
Measured medians from the survey showed respondents anticipating a 5% rise in their firms' revenue for the year, a 1.6% increase in employment, and a 3% rise in prices, with unit costs expected to climb by the same 3%.
Summary
The quarterly Fed bank survey of 473 CFOs found improving business expectations through early 2026, with projected revenue growth, modest hiring and anticipated price and unit-cost increases. Concerns over tariffs and trade policy remained prominent but less widespread than in mid-2025; labor availability and sales prospects were additional areas of focus. The survey period largely preceded the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East that increased oil prices and disrupted regional transport routes.
Key points
- Survey sample: 473 chief financial officers polled by the Federal Reserve banks of Atlanta and Richmond with Duke University Fuqua School of Business.
- Expectations: Median respondents forecast 5% revenue growth, 1.6% employment growth, and 3% increases in both prices and unit costs for the year.
- Primary concerns: Tariffs and trade policy (just over 20%), labor quality and availability (17%), and sales outlook (15%).
Risks and uncertainties
- Geopolitical escalation: The outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and related strikes raised oil prices above $100 a barrel and disrupted shipping and travel in the Middle East - a risk to energy and transport-exposed sectors.
- Trade policy shifts: Although concern over tariffs eased from mid-2025 levels, changes to tariffs and trade rules remain a source of uncertainty for firms dependent on imports and global supply chains.
- Labor market constraints: Ongoing issues with labor quality and availability could affect sectors that rely on skilled and frontline workers.