Analysts polled expect Colombia's economy to have slowed in the first quarter of the year, with a median estimate pointing to 2.2% growth for January through March. That rate would mark a decline from the 2.6% expansion recorded in the same period a year earlier, according to the poll of 15 analysts.
The poll's median forecast of 2.2% sits slightly above the central bank technical team's more recent projection of 2.1% - a figure that itself was revised downward this week from a previously published forecast of 3.2%.
Sector picture and near-term outlook
Respondents signaled a mixed sectoral performance in the quarter. Agriculture, oil and mining production are expected to be at their weakest in more than ten years, while construction is anticipated to register only modest expansion. Those assessments come from Camilo Perez, director of economic studies at Banco de Bogota, who outlined the uneven performance across sectors identified in the poll.
Conversely, consumption is expected to have produced relatively strong results in the quarter. Public sector employment was also noted as a factor that helped offset weakness in the most troubled areas of the economy, according to the same assessment.
Medium-term forecasts revised down
The survey also captured softer expectations for medium-term growth. Forecasts for 2026 were trimmed to a median of 2.5% from 2.8% in the prior poll, while the projection for 2027 declined to 2.3% from 2.8% previously.
Those downgrades reflect the poll respondents' view that several key production sectors will remain under pressure beyond the immediate quarter, even as consumption and public employment provide partial support to headline growth.
Data calendar
Colombia's national statistics agency will release official first-quarter GDP figures on May 15, at which point the preliminary picture sketched by the poll can be confirmed or adjusted.
Until that release, the poll results provide the clearest consolidated snapshot of analyst expectations: modest headline growth in Q1, persistent softness in commodity-related and construction activity, and a degree of resilience coming from domestic demand and public payrolls.