Economy March 31, 2026

CFTC Enforcement to Target Insider Trading in Prediction Markets and Energy Market Manipulation

New enforcement chief signals focused policing on event contracts, spoofing and anti-money-laundering breaches

By Hana Yamamoto
CFTC Enforcement to Target Insider Trading in Prediction Markets and Energy Market Manipulation

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission will prioritize enforcement against potential insider trading in prediction markets and manipulative conduct in energy markets, the agency's new enforcement director said in his first public remarks since taking the post. The CFTC will also concentrate on spoofing and willful violations of anti-money-laundering laws, and will increase incentives for cooperation in investigations.

Key Points

  • CFTC will prioritize enforcement actions on insider trading in prediction markets and manipulation in energy markets, along with spoofing and deliberate anti-money-laundering breaches.
  • The agency holds that event contracts are swaps, not gaming instruments, and therefore subject to insider trading law.
  • The CFTC will expand incentives for full cooperation in investigations; firms or individuals that fully cooperate and remediate may face reduced penalties.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it will concentrate its enforcement resources on a short list of market misconduct issues, specifically naming insider trading in prediction markets and manipulation in energy markets as priorities, the agency's new enforcement director said on Tuesday.

David Miller, speaking publicly for the first time since joining the CFTC earlier this month, said the agency's enforcement agenda will also include market abuse such as spoofing and deliberate breaches of laws intended to prevent money laundering.

Miller pointed to heightened attention on trades executed just ahead of major policy announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump during his second term. Such trades have drawn scrutiny from observers after they reportedly generated sizable profits for unidentified traders. "We are aware of the speculation about insider trading," Miller said. "We are watching."

The remarks come amid ongoing legal disputes between the CFTC and state regulators over which authorities have jurisdiction over event contracts. Those contracts permit wagers on "yes" or "no" outcomes for specific events, and have become a focal point for scrutiny as trading activity in these markets grows.

On the regulatory classification of those contracts, Miller was explicit: "Our position is that event contracts are not gaming. The event contracts at issue are swaps. Insider trading law applies," he said.

While laying out the agency's core priority areas, Miller reiterated that the era of so-called regulation by enforcement is over - a reference to criticism of the prior administration's approach. He said the CFTC plans to enhance the incentives available to companies and individuals who fully cooperate with the agency's investigations.

Under the policy Miller described, parties that provide robust cooperation and take remediation steps would face lower penalties. Those benefits would apply even in cases where a confidential government investigation was already underway. "Cooperation in our view is binary: you9re either in or you9re out," Miller said. "That means robust, full cooperation."


The CFTC's stated enforcement focus spans several market areas that intersect with broader financial and commodity markets. By prioritizing both emerging venues for event contracts and traditional commodity markets such as energy, the agency is signaling attention to disruptive trading patterns and to legal clarity around product classification.

As the CFTC implements these priorities, market participants in derivatives, energy trading, and nascent prediction markets should expect intensified scrutiny and a clear message that cooperation can meaningfully affect enforcement outcomes.

Risks

  • Uncertainty over regulatory jurisdiction for event contracts could prolong legal disputes and affect participants in prediction markets and derivatives trading - impacting financial market participants and trading platforms.
  • Heightened scrutiny of energy market trading raises the risk of increased enforcement actions for firms active in energy commodities - affecting energy traders and commodity-focused funds.
  • Aggressive enforcement and binary cooperation expectations may increase compliance costs and legal exposure for firms under investigation across derivatives and commodity sectors.

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