Economy March 27, 2026

Canada's 2025/26 Ten-Month Budget Shortfall Rises to C$31.21 Billion

Spending outpaces revenue as program expenses climb and mixed interest-rate effects alter public debt charges

By Jordan Park
Canada's 2025/26 Ten-Month Budget Shortfall Rises to C$31.21 Billion

Canada reported a C$31.21 billion budget deficit through the first ten months of the 2025/26 fiscal year as government outlays grew faster than receipts. Program spending rose modestly, while public debt charges edged lower overall due to reduced rates on short-term instruments but were partly offset by higher effective rates on a larger stock of marketable bonds. Year-to-date revenues increased driven by customs duties and tax receipts.

Key Points

  • The budget deficit through the first ten months of fiscal 2025/26 widened to C$31.21 billion from C$26.85 billion a year earlier - sectors impacted include public finance and sovereign debt markets.
  • Program expenses increased by 2.6%, with rises across all major spending categories - relevant to government services and public-sector contractors.
  • Year-to-date revenues grew by 1.6%, driven by higher customs import duties and increased corporate and personal income tax receipts - affecting trade-related revenues and tax-dependent fiscal flows.

On March 27, the finance ministry reported that Canada ran a C$31.21 billion budget deficit over the first ten months of the 2025/26 fiscal year, reflecting an increase in the shortfall compared with C$26.85 billion recorded in the same period a year earlier.

The ministry attributed the larger deficit to government expenditures rising faster than revenues. Program expenses were up 2.6%, with increases recorded across all major categories of spending.

Public debt charges showed a small overall decline of 0.3%. The ministry said this reduction reflected the impact of lower interest rates on treasury bills and other short-term instruments. That effect was partly offset by higher average effective interest rates on an increased stock of marketable bonds, leaving the net change in debt servicing costs marginally negative.

On the revenue side, year-to-date receipts rose 1.6%. The growth in revenues was concentrated in higher income from customs import duties together with increased corporate and personal income tax revenues, according to the ministry's statement.

Looking at the monthly flow, January produced a deficit of C$5.07 billion, slightly smaller than the C$5.13 billion shortfall posted in January 2025. The finance ministry presented these figures as part of its routine fiscal reporting for the current fiscal year. (Exchange rate used: $1 = 1.3855 Canadian dollars.)


Contextual note - The reported figures combine movements in program spending, debt servicing costs and revenues to produce the overall year-to-date deficit. Within those components, short-term interest-rate movements and shifts in the stock of marketable bonds had offsetting effects on public debt charges, while customs duties and tax collections were the primary contributors to revenue growth.

This account reflects the information made available by the finance ministry regarding the first ten months of fiscal 2025/26 and the comparative monthly result for January.

Risks

  • Public debt charges may shift if interest rates on different instruments move unevenly - this uncertainty affects sovereign borrowing costs and fixed-income markets.
  • A continuation of faster spending growth relative to revenue could widen the fiscal shortfall further - this presents a risk to fiscal consolidation efforts and government balance-sheet metrics.
  • Revenue growth concentrated in customs duties and tax collections creates vulnerability if those receipts slow - trade activity, corporate profits and household incomes are potential channels of risk.

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