Economy January 29, 2026

Brazilian Bank Credit Expands 10.2% in 2025, Outpacing Central Bank Forecast

Household borrowing surges after government credit stimulus even as central bank holds interest rates at 15%

By Derek Hwang
Brazilian Bank Credit Expands 10.2% in 2025, Outpacing Central Bank Forecast

Official figures show total bank lending in Brazil climbed 10.2% in 2025, surpassing the central bank's December projection. The stronger-than-expected gain was led by household credit, supported by recently announced government measures to broaden payroll-deductible loans and extend subsidized home purchase programs to middle-income families. The central bank has maintained a tight monetary stance, keeping its benchmark rate at 15% to pursue a 3% inflation target.

Key Points

  • Total bank lending in Brazil rose 10.2% in 2025, above the central bank's December forecast of 9.4%.
  • Household credit led the expansion, increasing 11.6% in 2025, driven in part by government measures to expand payroll-deductible loans and subsidized home purchase programs for middle-income families.
  • Corporate lending grew 8.1% in 2025, roughly matching the central bank's 8.0% estimate; total credit reached 7.1 trillion reais ($1.37 trillion) after a 1.8% increase in December.

Brazil's outstanding bank credit rose 10.2% in 2025, official data released on Tuesday indicate, outpacing the central bank's forecast and reflecting a notable pickup in consumer borrowing following government credit-support policies.

The administration of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva introduced a package of measures in 2025 designed to enlarge access to payroll-deductible loans for private sector employees and to widen subsidized mortgage programs to include middle-income households. Those steps coincided with household lending accelerating by 11.6% during the year, above the central bank's December estimate of 10.4%.

Corporate credit also grew, expanding by 8.1% in 2025, roughly matching the central bank's 8.0% projection. Overall, total credit outstanding in Brazil increased by 1.8% in December alone from the previous month, bringing the stock of loans to 7.1 trillion reais ($1.37 trillion) at year-end.

The central bank has maintained an exceptionally tight monetary policy stance to guide inflation toward its 3% target, leaving the benchmark interest rate at 15% - the highest level in nearly two decades - since July of the prior year. Despite those high borrowing costs, policymakers had estimated in December that total loans would finish the year with a more modest 9.4% expansion, down from 11.5% in 2024.

Credit quality indicators showed small moves in December. A broad default measure for consumer and business loans that excludes earmarked credit rose slightly to 5.4% from 5.3% the month before. At the same time, lending spreads tightened a little, narrowing to 33.6 percentage points from 33.8 points in November.

These figures reflect a mix of policy-driven demand for household credit and cautious corporate borrowing in an environment of sustained high interest rates. The exchange rate used in the data release was $1 = 5.1998 reais.


Context and market implications

The faster-than-expected expansion in bank lending suggests that government credit initiatives played a meaningful role in supporting consumer borrowing, while corporate lending remained broadly in line with expectations. The central bank's continued emphasis on tight policy settings to achieve its inflation target remains a key influence on cost of credit and credit market dynamics.

Risks

  • Persistently high benchmark interest rates at 15% could continue to constrain corporate investment and borrowing, affecting the corporate loan market.
  • A modest rise in default ratios - from 5.3% to 5.4% - signals potential pressure on credit quality for consumer and business loans.
  • Narrowing lending spreads may compress bank margins, which could influence lending behavior and profitability in the banking sector.

More from Economy

House Prepares Vote to End Brief Partial Shutdown, Final Ballot Expected Tuesday Feb 2, 2026 France’s 2026 Budget Clears Parliament After Concessions, Targets 5% Deficit Feb 2, 2026 Cboe Holds Early Talks to Bring Binary Options Back to Retail Traders Feb 2, 2026 Administration to Build $12 Billion Critical Minerals Reserve to Shield U.S. Manufacturing Feb 2, 2026 Investors Pile Into Gold and Miner ETFs in January as Safety Demand Rises Feb 2, 2026