SINGAPORE, Feb 2 - Aviation industry leaders addressed growth headwinds and the fallout from geopolitical tensions on the eve of Asia's largest air show, while reaffirming commitments to emissions reductions.
At the Changi Aviation Summit, the head of the International Air Transport Association warned that supply chain problems are inflicting persistent harm on global airlines and are likely to continue. "This disruption continues to have a major impact," IATA Director General Willie Walsh said, speaking to industry officials and regulators ahead of the air show.
Walsh said the sector is also adapting to geopolitical shifts that have altered traditional flows of air freight, pointing specifically to U.S. import tariffs as a destabilizing factor. "I think the impact of geopolitical change was much more obvious on the air cargo side of the business than on the passenger side," he added.
Officials cited recent cargo data showing a slight contraction in shipments on one major corridor last year, with air cargo between Asia and North America slipping 0.8% - the first such decline in some time. By contrast, volumes between Europe and Asia expanded by 10.3% over the same period, illustrating uneven regional patterns in freight movement.
Despite those freight headwinds, the Asia-Pacific region remains the fastest-growing market for air travel, led by China and India. Passenger traffic growth of 7.3% is projected for 2026, underscoring strong demand for services in the region.
Toshiyuki Onuma, president of the governing council of the International Civil Aviation Organization, the United Nations' aviation body, warned that the industry’s current systems will be inadequate if growth continues unchecked. "A system built for 4 billion passengers cannot support three times that number without transformation," he said, urging coordinated action to address capacity and infrastructure constraints.
Leaders reiterated their environmental commitments alongside concerns about supply chains and geopolitics, but emphasized that significant changes to systems and coordination across stakeholders will be necessary if projected demand materializes.
Key points:
- Persistent supply chain disruptions are significantly affecting global airlines and are expected to continue impacting operations and logistics.
- Geopolitical shifts, including U.S. import tariffs, have disproportionately affected air cargo flows, with Asia-North America freight down 0.8% while Europe-Asia volumes rose 10.3% last year.
- Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing passenger market, with China and India driving demand and passenger traffic growth of 7.3% projected for 2026.
Risks and uncertainties:
- Ongoing supply chain disruptions could continue to strain airlines' operations and freight logistics, impacting airline revenues and schedules.
- Geopolitical developments and trade measures may further alter air cargo routes and volumes, creating volatility for freight forwarders and cargo carriers.
- Existing aviation infrastructure and systems may be insufficient if passenger numbers approach projected levels, raising capacity and investment risks for airports and carriers.