Summary: A poll conducted by the Asahi newspaper shows Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is likely to secure a substantially larger share of seats in the lower house in next week’s election, potentially delivering what the survey describes as a landslide. According to the Asahi’s findings, the LDP would comfortably surpass the 233-seat threshold needed for a majority in the 465-seat lower chamber, increasing from its present 198 seats.
Election math and coalition: The Asahi poll projects that, when combined with its coalition partner the Japan Innovation Party, also known as Ishin, the ruling alliance could approach roughly 300 seats in total. Such a result would broaden the governing bloc’s margin in the lower house from a slim advantage to a more commanding position.
Political consequences: A strong performance on Sunday would be expected to cement Takaichi’s hold on her party and furnish her with a political mandate to pursue expansionary fiscal policy. The poll note links that potential policy direction to market and fiscal concerns, saying it could heighten scrutiny of Japan’s public finances and exert upward pressure on bond yields.
Opposition outlook: The Asahi’s survey finds the largest opposition group, the Centrist Reform Alliance, is struggling in the vote and may see its presence significantly reduced - possibly losing half of its current 167 seats.
Legislative balance: At present, the ruling coalition holds only a slender majority in the powerful lower house, while remaining in the minority in the upper house. The poll suggests the upcoming lower house result could change the balance in the lower chamber in the government’s favor, though it does not address the upper house configuration.
Market implications: The Asahi poll frames the likely outcome as more than a political reshuffle - it signals a mandate that could enable the government to adopt expansionary fiscal measures. Those measures are explicitly linked in the survey to increased concern about Japan’s finances and a prospect of higher government bond yields.
Conclusion: The Asahi newspaper’s poll portrays a scenario in which the LDP and its coalition partner considerably strengthen their lower house standing. The survey highlights both the immediate political consolidation that would follow and the attendant fiscal and bond-market considerations policymakers and investors would be watching.