The advent of so‑called agentic artificial intelligence is expected to change how consumers shop online in Europe, according to a new Morgan Stanley report, which predicts more seamless purchasing journeys and higher gross merchandise value, or GMV. At the same time, the investment bank says the longer‑term consequences for structural margins are uncertain.
Analysts writing in the report highlight a potential shift in acquisition economics as AI agents begin to handle product discovery. That change could make paid traffic relatively more expensive compared with organic reach, the note says, creating incentives for merchants to take their advertising activity off platform and potentially eroding profitability for incumbent marketplace operators.
Logistics gains prominence as a tangible defensive asset
In response to these evolving dynamics, Morgan Stanley has adjusted how it values e‑commerce marketplaces, applying logistics peers as the relevant comparator. The firm now benchmarks marketplace valuations against logistics companies trading at about 13x price to earnings on 2027 estimates, rather than using pure technology multiples.
The shift in valuation philosophy reflects the bank's view that physical delivery infrastructure represents an underappreciated moat that can protect platforms from some forms of AI disruption. In this framework, control of last‑mile capabilities and warehousing becomes a tangible backbone underpinning long‑term resilience.
How specific firms fare under the new lens
Morgan Stanley named Allegro (WA:ALEP) a Top Pick, arguing that the company's diversified logistics network should help offset possible margin pressure stemming from agentic AI. While acknowledging a recent share sell‑off the bank considers overdone, Morgan Stanley sees a price target of PLN 38.00, implying approximately 38% upside from current levels.
By contrast, Kaspi.kz AO (NASDAQ:KSPI) faces a more mixed outlook. Morgan Stanley trimmed net income forecasts for 2026 through 2028 by up to 5% after re‑rating its marketplace business to align with logistics multiples, reflecting a less favourable view of the marketplace segment under the new valuation approach.
AI players pivot away from in‑app checkout, creating mixed outcomes
The report also notes strategic changes among major AI operators, citing a move away from direct in‑app checkout toward sending traffic to merchant websites. That development eases the immediate threat of platforms being bypassed entirely by AI interfaces, but does not eliminate the tension between capturing user intent and preserving high‑margin advertising revenue. Morgan Stanley characterizes this tension as an ongoing source of volatility for the sector.
Zalando SE (ETR:ZALG) is highlighted as a name supported more by company actions than by broad market tailwinds. The bank lifted adjusted EPS projections for 2026 and 2027 by 4 to 5 percent, driven mainly by a share buyback program and small estimate updates rather than macroeconomic improvements.
As agentic AI capabilities and established retail models begin to converge, Morgan Stanley's report concludes that the platforms most able to leverage physical logistics assets may be better positioned to navigate the transition to an agent‑led shopping environment. The report stops short of a definitive claim on long‑run margin outcomes, noting the structural picture remains unclear.