Vista Gold Q3 2025 Earnings Call - New Feasibility Study Unlocks Major Value with Lower Capital Costs and Strong Gold Price Leverage
Summary
Vista Gold reports a pivotal Q3 2025 with a fresh feasibility study that reshapes the Mount Todd Gold Project as a smaller, leaner 15,000 ton per day operation, slashing initial capital costs from over $1 billion to $425 million. The new study prioritizes higher ore grades and outlines a 30-year mine life with robust economics—featuring a 27.8% IRR at a conservative $2,500 gold price, and near $2.2 billion NPV at $3,300 per ounce, nearly 10 times the current share price. The company ended the quarter with $13.7 million in cash, no debt, and maintains strong operational discipline, including four years without a lost-time accident. Vista remains open to various development options, including standalone execution or joint ventures to optimize shareholder value, while in active dialogue with indigenous stakeholders and the market amid surging gold prices exceeding $4,100 per ounce.
Key Takeaways
- Vista Gold completed a new feasibility study for the Mount Todd Gold Project focusing on a 15,000 ton per day operation with significantly reduced initial capital costs of $425 million versus prior >$1 billion estimates.
- The study emphasizes higher ore grades over scale, achieving stable gold production over a projected 30-year mine life with operating practices aligned to Australian standards to mitigate development risks.
- At a gold price of $2,500 per ounce, the project delivers a net present value (NPV) of $1.1 billion (5% discount) and internal rate of return (IRR) of 27.8%, with a payback period under 3 years.
- Using a conservative $3,300 gold price, NPV nearly doubles to $2.2 billion, IRR rises to 44.7%, and payback shortens to 1.7 years, illustrating high leverage to rising gold prices.
- Mount Todd’s all-in sustaining cost is estimated at $1,500 per ounce, projecting free cash flow around $300 million annually at a $3,500 gold price scenario.
- Vista’s share price has surged approximately 210% year to date amid gold price strength and market receptivity to the feasibility study, with a current market cap of about $220 million.
- The company ended Q3 2025 with $13.7 million cash on hand, no debt, and limited net cash decline through tax recovery related to prior project sales and controlled expenditures.
- Vista is advancing permit modifications to align with the new project scale and continuing technical studies to support detailed engineering decisions.
- The company remains flexible on development pathways: advancing standalone, joint venture partnerships, or corporate transactions—each with distinct trade-offs balancing dilution, control, and financing costs.
- Ongoing engagement with the Jawoyn Association Aboriginal Corporation remains constructive, with strong indigenous stakeholder support for project progression.
- Vista underscores its commitment to health and safety, achieving four years without a lost-time accident and pursuing high ESG standards throughout project development.
- Management views current market volatility as an opportunity, urging investors to consider Vista’s undervaluation and the rich upside potential inherent in the Mount Todd project’s robust economics and strategic positioning.
Full Transcript
Sylvie, Conference Call Operator: Good day. Ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Vista Gold’s third quarter 2025 financial results and Corporate Update conference call. At this time, all participants are in the listen only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. At that time, participants are asked to press Star one to register for a question. For assistance during the call, please press Star 0 on your desktop phone. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. Today is Thursday, November 13, 2025. It is now my pleasure to introduce Pamela Solly, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Pamela.
Pamela Solly, Vice President of Investor Relations, Vista Gold: Thank you, Sylvie, and good day everyone. Thank you for joining the Vista Gold third quarter 2025 financial results and Corporate Update conference call. I’m Pamela Solly, Vice President of Investor Relations. On the call today is Fred Earnest, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Doug Tobler, Chief Financial Officer. On November 12, 2025, Vista reported its operating and financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. Copies of the news release and quarterly report on Form 10Q are available on our website at www.vistagold.com. During the course of this call and the question and answer session, we will be making forward-looking statements. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results, performance, or achievements of Vista to be materially different from results, performance, or achievements expressed or implied by such statements.
Please refer to our most recently filed Form 10Q for details of risks and other important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in our forward looking statements and the cautionary note regarding estimates of mineral resources and mineral reserves. I will now turn the call over to Fred Earnest.
Fred Earnest, President and Chief Executive Officer, Vista Gold: Thank you Pam and thank you everyone for joining us on the call today. During the third quarter we achieved a significant milestone with the completion of a new feasibility study for the Mount Todd Gold Project. The results of the study were announced on July 29, 2025 and this new study represents a fresh vision for the project as a 15,000 ton per day operation, one that prioritizes lower initial capital costs and higher ore grades. The study underscores our commitment to see Mount Todd developed as an Australian project. I’ll talk more on that later in the call. As we continue to evaluate strategic options for developing Mount Todd. We have started modifications to existing permits to align them with the new 15,000 ton per day project and initiated technical work in preparation of a decision to commence detailed engineering.
I’m pleased to report that we ended the quarter with a solid cash position, which Doug will discuss shortly. Additionally, we have now achieved four years without a lost time accident at the site. We are committed to prioritizing the efficient use of our cash and creating long-term value for our shareholders through disciplined execution of our strategy for the Mount Todd Gold Project. I will discuss some of these topics in greater detail later in the call, but I will now turn the time over to Doug Tobler for a review of our financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025.
Doug Tobler, Chief Financial Officer, Vista Gold: Thank you, Fred, and I’ll begin today’s discussion with a summary of our results of operations for the three and the nine month periods ended September 30, 2025 compared to these same periods for 2024. For additional details, our full financial statements and our MDA are included in our Form 10Q that was filed earlier. For the three month periods ended September 30, 2025 and 2024, we reported net losses of $723,000 and $1,638,000 respectively. The most significant reason for the decline in our net loss in the current period was our recognition of other income upon recovery of $1,257,000 for taxes that were paid in connection with the 2020 sale of the Los Reyes Gold Project in Mexico. Minor offsets to these incomes resulted from slightly higher Mount Todd exploration and evaluation costs and administrative costs.
Now, for the nine month periods ended September 30, 2025 and 2024, we reported a net loss of $5,787,000 for the 2025 period and net income of $12,922,000 for the 2024 period. The change between the 2025 and the 2024 periods resulted mostly from two gains recognized during the 2024 nine month period. First, we recognized a $16.9 million gain on the grant of a royalty interest to Wheaton Precious Metals and secondly, we had an $802,000 gain on sale of a portion of our used mill equipment. Partially offsetting the change that resulted from these two 2024 gains was the $1,257,000 Mexico tax recovery that I mentioned previously. Turning to our financial position, we continue to maintain a strong cash position with $13.7 million on hand at September 30, 2025. This compares to the $16.9 million cash on hand at December 31, 2024.
We were successful in limiting our net decline in cash during this nine month period because of the Mexico tax recovery and selected use of our ATM program. Also, we continue to have no debt. Looking forward, we expect our recurring costs and other expenses to remain largely in line with our expectations. For the 12 month period following September 30, 2025, the company estimates net recurring costs will approximate $7.4 million plus an additional $2 million related to ongoing and currently planned work at Mount Todd. Thank you. That concludes my remarks, Fred. I’ll turn it back to you now.
Fred Earnest, President and Chief Executive Officer, Vista Gold: Thank you, Doug. Let me first talk about the feasibility study. As I mentioned earlier, during the quarter we completed a new feasibility study for Mount Todd that presents a fresh vision for the project. As a 15,000 ton per day operation, the study significantly decreased the initial capital costs from over $1 billion to $425 million, prioritized grade over tons, delivered stable gold production over a 30 year mine life, and incorporated design and operating practices commonly used in Australian gold operations to reduce development and operation risks. The new feasibility study marks a significant shift in the strategy for Mount Todd, demonstrating the potential for near term development of a smaller, lower capital cost project than those previously evaluated.
At the feasibility study gold price of $2,500 an ounce, the net present value at a 5% discount rate is estimated to be $1.1 billion US with an internal rate of return of 27.8% and a payback period of 2.7 years. At a still conservative gold price of $3,300 per ounce, the net present value on an after tax basis at a 5% discount rate is estimated to be $2.2 billion with an internal rate of return of 44.7% and a payback period of 1.7 years. Obviously, these economics demonstrate very strong leverage to the price of gold. For additional information on the feasibility study results, please refer to Vista’s news release dated July 29, 2025 and the feasibility study presentation, both of which can be found on our company website.
Switching over to permits as we’ve discussed in the past, we have all of the major permits for the previously evaluated 50,000 ton per day operation. As all will appreciate with the design changes, with the rising gold price, there are some differences and in order to align the new 15,000 ton per day operation with those permits, modifications to some of those permits are necessary. The work commenced during the third quarter and is ongoing. Switching to technical studies, we are completing technical work in advance of the decision to commence detailed engineering. The primary objective of these programs is to characterize material properties and attributes to support early stage engineering and equipment selection decisions. During the third quarter, we maintained our focus on safety, environmental stewardship, and stakeholder interests. The Mount Todd team passed the very significant milestone of four years with no lost time accidents.
We’re very pleased with this achievement. We remain committed to our health and safety programs and are focused on extending this achievement. Site personnel continued to successfully manage Mount Todd. Environmental initiatives and management continued its proactive engagement with the Jawoyn Association Aboriginal Corporation and other key stakeholders. Looking ahead, we believe Mount Todd holds tremendous intrinsic value and represents an exceptional investment opportunity at conservative long term gold prices. With an all-in sustaining cost of $1,500 per ounce and a very conservative gold price of $3,500 an ounce, the Mount Todd Gold Project will generate approximately $300 million US of free cash flow annually. Looking at this from another perspective, at a $2,500 gold price, the study net asset value per share is $8.41 per share and at a $3,300 gold price, the study net asset value per share is $17.14 per share.
That’s nearly 10 times our current share price. I think these numbers support our belief there’s a tremendous opportunity here and a tremendous opportunity to acquire Vista shares and see a significant increase on your returns. We’re very pleased with our share performance to date, which reflects not only the rise in the gold price but also the market strong support of the new Mount Todd 15,000 ton per day feasibility study. Vista shares have increased or approximately 210% year to date. With our market cap at approximately $220 million, we anticipate sustained strength in the gold price will continue to positively influence Vista’s share price performance. Today, with much higher gold prices and growing investor interest, Mount Todd is positioned as one of the most attractive development stage projects in the gold sector.
Its strong project economics, favorable jurisdiction, permitting status and existing infrastructure make it well suited for near term development. We are confident that this is the right market in which to advance Mount Todd. In conclusion, Vista is committed to seeing Mount Todd developed in compliance with the highest mining and ESG standards and will work diligently toward that goal. For more information about Vista Gold and the Mount Todd project, I refer you to our corporate presentation which can be found on our website at www.vistagold.com. We believe that Vista Gold represents an exceptional investment opportunity and that current prices represent a tremendous opportunity to establish a position or increase one’s holdings in Vista Gold. This concludes my formal remarks and we will now respond to any questions from participants on the call.
Sylvie, Conference Call Operator: Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you do have any questions, please press STAR followed by one on your touchtone phone. You will then hear a prompt that your hand has been raised, and should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press STAR followed by two. If you’re using a speakerphone, you will need to lift the handset first.
Pamela Solly, Vice President of Investor Relations, Vista Gold: Before pressing any keys.
Sylvie, Conference Call Operator: Please go ahead and press star one now. If you have any questions, your first question will be from Heiko Wainwright. Please go ahead.
Fred Earnest, President and Chief Executive Officer, Vista Gold: Hey, Fred.
Heiko Wainwright, Analyst: Hello, team. Sorry for the background noise. I’m traveling as you can probably hear.
Doug Tobler, Chief Financial Officer, Vista Gold: You can hear me, okay?
Fred Earnest, President and Chief Executive Officer, Vista Gold: Hi, Heiko. Great to have you on the call. Good morning from Australia.
Heiko Wainwright, Analyst: Very nice.
Fred Earnest, President and Chief Executive Officer, Vista Gold: Hey.
Heiko Wainwright, Analyst: In our view, the project’s one of the largest benefactors of the current metal pricing environment that we’re in. This was the start of this call. We were at $4,150 an ounce, which is nuts. It’s probably even better in Australia. Probably. It is even better in Australian dollar terms. You’re only using $2,500 an ounce in your feasibility study.
Fred Earnest, President and Chief Executive Officer, Vista Gold: Can you just give a bit more?
Heiko Wainwright, Analyst: Color on the change at current prices due to the study and how much that has been reflected in investor and potential partner interests? It seems like things are firing on all cylinders. Just add a bit of color on what you’re seeing from the other sides of negotiating tables.
Fred Earnest, President and Chief Executive Officer, Vista Gold: Eiko, in just general terms, obviously at a $4,150 gold price, project economics are substantially better than the numbers that we discussed on the call. That just speaks to the tremendous leverage that we enjoy in the project and the leverage to the price of gold. Obviously, these gold prices are driving a lot of dynamics in the market. Since announcing the feasibility study results, we have signed additional confidentiality agreements. We continue to see interest in the project, and we continue to move forward on all of the options that we have available to us. We’ve not shut off any avenues for advancing Mount Todd and in fact, continue to be open to any of the options that we’ve laid out previously, ranging.
Doug Tobler, Chief Financial Officer, Vista Gold: From.
Fred Earnest, President and Chief Executive Officer, Vista Gold: An opportunity or decision to advance Mount Todd as a standalone project to forming a joint venture to develop it with an appropriate partner, or even considering an appropriately valued corporate transaction. Fair enough.
Heiko Wainwright, Analyst: Same question, but different and with a very different change. You’ve always had very good relations with the Jawoyn. I mean, any details how Dave reacted to the latest feasibility study that came out? Did they provide any input, any commentary after it came? I mean, I know you guys are talking very much on the regular.
Fred Earnest, President and Chief Executive Officer, Vista Gold: Yeah, I’ve been in Australia several times since announcing the feasibility study results and had meetings with representatives of Jawoyn leadership as well as their board of Directors. The Jawoyn continue to be very supportive of the Mount Todd project and very hopeful that it will go forward in a timely manner. I think, as most people know, that we have a contractual relationship with the Jawoyn. We have a couple of royalty agreements, and they stand to benefit economically from the development of the project, and they are supportive of the project and keen to see it move forward. Perfect. I’ll get back in queue.
Heiko Wainwright, Analyst: Sorry for the background noise again.
Fred Earnest, President and Chief Executive Officer, Vista Gold: Okay, thanks, Heiko.
Sylvie, Conference Call Operator: Once again, ladies and gentlemen, please press star 1 if you do have any questions. Next we will hear from Mike Schultz and Buster. Please go ahead, Mike.
Mike Schultz, Analyst: Hey, Fred, can you hear me?
Fred Earnest, President and Chief Executive Officer, Vista Gold: We hear you loud and clear, Mike.
Mike Schultz, Analyst: Okay, great. A couple questions. One is, can you shed light on, like, the number of confidentiality agreements that have been entered into since you announced kind of the recent feasibility study? Not exact number.
Doug Tobler, Chief Financial Officer, Vista Gold: Ballpark.
Fred Earnest, President and Chief Executive Officer, Vista Gold: Yeah. Mike, we don’t disclose how many confidentiality agreements we’ve signed or who they’re with. That’s just a matter of corporate practice. We have signed a number of new confidentiality agreements, and we continue to see new interest in the project.
Mike Schultz, Analyst: Okay, and then the second question is just I know that you’ve kind of come with the new feasibility study. You’ve opened the door some to, you know, potentially developing it on your own on Vista, developing it as a standalone. What are the trade offs there? Because, like, I guess if you enter into a partnership agreement, you’re giving something up versus if you do it a standalone, you’re having to pay finance costs.
Doug Tobler, Chief Financial Officer, Vista Gold: What are the.
Mike Schultz, Analyst: What are the benefits of a partner versus just going ahead and deciding to do it as a stand alone?
Fred Earnest, President and Chief Executive Officer, Vista Gold: That’s a very astute question, Mike. There are some very significant trade offs between either of those two execution strategies. Certainly bringing in a joint venture partner, the advantages would be reduced dilution. There would not be a need to issue near the number of shares of equity participation. I suppose you could say that dilution would happen in a different way. As you pointed out, you would be giving up part of the project to bring in a joint venture partner. Ideally, I do not think we would do a deal if we were not satisfied with this condition, but a joint venture partner would bring to the table a project development team and experience and reputation in developing gold projects that we hope the market would recognize and reward. That would be a benefit.
Obviously, the biggest trade off there is that you’re giving away part of the project, likely 50% or more, to bring in that joint venture partner. On the other hand, developing it on a standalone basis preserves 100% ownership for the Vista shareholders. It involves Vista building a team to advance the project and carefully and selectively putting together that team of people. Sometimes that takes time. Obviously, there are some advantages there economically in that we retain 100% ownership. There are different ways to finance this that could be some that are more attractive and more advantageous for shareholders than others. Doug, you want to chime in with any other thoughts on this question?
Doug Tobler, Chief Financial Officer, Vista Gold: Yes. I mean, I think you’ve hit the big points. It’s around on a joint venture opportunity, obviously you’d be looking for a premium to what our current share price is, if that’s the driver for the valuation. But keeping it yourself, you have the whole thing to work with. You do have to take on, most commonly you take on debt and you have larger dilutions, but having 100% of it is very helpful. I think one key point to make, which you brought up, Mike, is this option of looking to build Mount Todd on our own is really a valid option at this point in time, which we haven’t had previously when we were a large project and needed to rely on finding a partner. It definitely opens many more doors.
Mike Schultz, Analyst: Okay, that’s y’all’s answer is very helpful. I just, as an investor, you know, as soon as something definitive is announced, and I think a lot of things could happen, and I know you guys are evaluating that, but you know, from an investor.
Doug Tobler, Chief Financial Officer, Vista Gold: Standpoint, you’re just kind of waiting for.
Mike Schultz, Analyst: Something to be announced and knowing that you can do it on a standalone does give you the option to do it if the partnerships do not seem favorable. Again, thanks for answering the question for me.
Sylvie, Conference Call Operator: Absolutely. Thank you. At this time, Mr. Earnest, we have no other questions. Please proceed.
Fred Earnest, President and Chief Executive Officer, Vista Gold: All right, thank you, Sylvie, and thanks to all of you who have been on the call today. Obviously, we’re very excited about where the project is headed and the results of the feasibility study. I’d like to go back to a point that I made just in closing, and that is we’ve seen a lot of volatility in the gold price in the last month and we’ve seen our share price move up, move down. I come back to the two concepts. The one is, what is the free cash flow that the project will generate? And again, using some very conservative numbers, we know that our all-in sustaining cost as estimated in the study will be just a little under $1,500 an ounce over the life of the project. To make the math easy, just using a $3,500 gold price.
That’s $2,000 of margin on 150,000 ounces of gold per year. That results in free cash flow, $300 million a year. This is a very robust project. I think that that number alone should attract people’s interest. Looking at it from a different perspective, and that is looking at the study net asset value, and again, using these conservative gold prices that are published along with the feasibility study, first at $2,500, which results in a steady NAV per share of $8.41. Comparing that to the $3,300 gold price study NAV per share, which is $17.14, again, I point out that that latter number, it’s still a very conservative gold price, is 10 times our current share price. I think both of these numbers speak to the fact that Vista is considerably undervalued, that there’s tremendous upside opportunity here.
While the gold price is moving up and down, and I know that that causes some people a little bit of concern and anxiety, I would suggest that this is a tremendous opportunity and a good time to be considering an investment in Vista Gold. We’re doing the things that we feel are important to lay the groundwork for that future decision. As far as how we develop the project, we continue to be very cautious and careful and prudent in the way that we manage the cash that we have. We think that we’re on the path to unlock significant value for shareholders. I’m excited about the opportunities that lie before us. I invite you to seriously consider and evaluate whether this is the right time for you to make an investment in Vista Gold.
If you already own shares of the company, I invite you to consider whether this is a time to increase your holding. We’re in a very dynamic gold market. I think that we’re still in the very early stages of a bull market and that we will continue to see gold price increase. That will be a contributing factor to all of the work that we’re doing at the company to drive the share price higher and to create value for shareholders. With that, I thank you for your time today and wish you all a very pleasant day and thank you for participating in this quarterly conference update call.
Sylvie, Conference Call Operator: Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude your conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending. At this time, we do ask that you please disconnect your lines.