StubHub Q1 2026 Earnings Call - Margin Expansion and Open Distribution Push Drive Profitability
Summary
StubHub delivered a strong first quarter in 2026, with GMS growing 7% to $2.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin expanding 400 basis points to 16%. The company is capitalizing on its market leadership and scale to improve operating efficiency, with sales and marketing costs falling to 50% of revenue. Management reiterated its full-year outlook for GMS of $9.9 billion to $10.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $400 million to $420 million, citing a healthy event calendar and strong international growth in Latin America and Asia Pacific.
Beyond financials, StubHub is pivoting to a product-led Open Distribution strategy, launching an AI-powered self-serve tool called Distribution Manager to help rights holders list tickets directly on the platform. The company also integrated with primary ticketing providers and AI chatbots like Anthropic’s Claude, signaling a broader push to meet consumers where they are. Management dismissed concerns about macro headwinds and concert cancellations, emphasizing the sector’s resilience and noting that Q2 is tracking well. Deleveraging continues, with net leverage down to 4x trailing adjusted EBITDA after over $1 billion in debt repayments over the past year.
Key Takeaways
- GMS grew 7% year-over-year to $2.2 billion, driven by North American resale growth, market share leadership, and international expansion.
- Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 400 basis points to 16%, reflecting normalized revenue conversion, improved gross margins, and marketing efficiency.
- Sales and marketing expense fell to 50% of revenue, a 500 basis point improvement year-over-year, as the company leverages scale.
- International growth outpaced North America, with notable performance in Latin America and Asia Pacific.
- StubHub launched Distribution Manager, an AI-powered self-serve tool allowing artists, teams, and venues to list and manage tickets directly on the platform.
- The company integrated with primary ticketing providers, enabling rights holders to list tickets on StubHub through existing workflows.
- Advertising is in the testing phase, with a focus on sponsored listings and auction mechanics that enhance rather than disrupt the user experience.
- StubHub partnered with Anthropic’s Claude and previously with OpenAI’s ChatGPT to integrate event discovery into AI chat interfaces.
- Management reiterated full-year 2026 guidance: GMS of $9.9 billion to $10.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $400 million to $420 million.
- Net leverage decreased to 4x trailing adjusted EBITDA, with over $1 billion in debt repaid over the past 12 months and no maturities until 2030.
- The company dismissed concerns about macro slowdowns and concert cancellations, citing the sector’s historical resilience and strong Q2 tracking.
- Fully diluted shares stand at approximately 399 million, with expected dilution in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range for the rest of 2026.
Full Transcript
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners4: Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to StubHub’s first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker’s remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during that time, simply press star, then the number 1 on your telephone keypad. Please note that this conference call is being recorded today, May 13th, 2026. I will now turn the call over to Jonathan Schaffer, SVP, Investor Relations with StubHub.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners0: Thank you. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us to discuss StubHub’s first quarter 2026 results. For reference, our first quarter earnings release and presentation are available under the Quarterly Results section of our investor relations website at investors.stubhub.com. Before we begin, please note that today’s call will include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the company’s current expectations and are not guarantees of future performance. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from what we expect. Although the company believes the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, it can make no assurance related to its expectations. We refer you to our recent SEC filings for a more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact our future operating results and financial condition.
We will also refer to non-GAAP measures on today’s call. Unless otherwise noted, our profitability and EBITDA discussions today refer to non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA. A reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is contained in today’s earnings release available on our investor relations site. All financial comparisons, unless noted otherwise, are based on the prior year period. Joining me today are Eric Baker, our Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, and Connie James, our Chief Financial Officer. They will provide opening remarks and then take questions. With that, I’ll turn it over to Eric. Eric, you may begin.
Eric Baker, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, StubHub: Thanks, Jonathan, and welcome everyone joining us today. We’re off to a positive start in 2026 with solid top-line growth and increased profitability. GMS increased 7% to $2.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 16%. We also generated healthy cash flow, which enabled us to further deleverage and strengthen our balance sheet. As a result, we are reiterating our full year outlook for GMS and adjusted EBITDA. On our year-end call in March, we outlined our three key priorities for StubHub in 2026, growth in our core resale marketplace, increased profitability, and advancement of longer term distribution opportunities. The quarter demonstrated our team’s execution against all three of these objectives. Starting with growth in our core resale marketplace, we are leveraging our leadership position and scale to drive performance both in North America and globally.
The live events and secondary ticketing markets remain healthy with strong consumer demand and a robust 2026 event calendar. In addition to favorable market dynamics, our resale business is also benefiting from advantages resulting from our increased scale. In 2025, we invested in our competitive position, increasing liquidity and selection, and building the infrastructure to support continuous improvement to the customer experience. In 2026, we are realizing the returns on these investments in the form of superior market leadership and even greater operating advantages. We believe our leading position, combined with the inherent flywheels of our marketplace model, allow us to improve customer acquisition economics while growing the business. Of course, our market leadership is a direct result of our relentless focus on the consumer experience. StubHub’s mission has always been to make it easier for fans to access live entertainment.
Our resale marketplace allows fans to buy and sell tickets with choice, convenience, and trust. We deliver a differentiated experience to consumers based on our scale advantages. Fans choose StubHub because we offer broad selection, trusted transactions, and a simple user experience. Sellers depend on StubHub for aggregated demand at global scale. Our technology and data connect both sides of the marketplace more effectively over time. That is what makes our consumer experience unique and creates durable competitive advantages. All of this adds up to what we believe is the most recognized brand in the resale market for live events. In the first quarter, we made progress in expanding the supply side of our marketplace beyond individual and professional sellers to enterprise scale sellers, including content rights holders such as professional sports teams, artists, venues, and other event organizers.
We believe it is clear the market is heading in the direction of non-exclusive Open Distribution. The ticketing ecosystem, including consumers, stands to gain from greater optionality and competition. Fans want more access and choice, and content rights holders want to fill more seats by offering inventory through more channels. Much like airlines selling tickets across platforms, the goal for content rights holders is to sell more tickets at more efficient prices and maximize the fan experience and value of each event through event optimization. It appears the regulatory environment is also recognizing the value of non-exclusive Open Distribution. A recent proposal to settle an antitrust suit in the live event space included non-exclusive Open Distribution, reinforcing the importance of giving content rights holders and consumers greater choice in how tickets are distributed, discovered, and purchased.
On our last call, we discussed our shift from a business development-led approach to a more product-led self-serve platform strategy. Our goal is to enable broader adoption of Open Distribution across rights holders by creating a seamless experience to list, manage, and distribute tickets through our marketplace. In the first quarter, we announced two new developments that illustrate how we can use technology to access this market. The first is Distribution Manager, an AI-powered self-serve tool that allows artists, teams, and venues to list and manage tickets directly through StubHub. The product is designed to remove friction for rights holders and does not require a technical team or complex integration. A partner can use a simple prompt to identify ticket types, set pricing and sales parameters, and list inventory directly on StubHub.
Because the tool sits on top of more than 25 years of StubHub marketplace data, it can also provide real-time pricing and demand signals to content rights holders before tickets go live. This is an early iteration of the tooling we plan to continue developing for enterprise-scale content. It is designed to make distribution simpler, more flexible, and more effective for rights holders while increasing access and selection for fans. We are also establishing direct connections with primary ticketing platforms. By integrating directly with StubHub, primary ticketing or access control providers can work alongside our marketplace to improve outcomes for rights holders and fans. Today, event organizers often list tickets exclusively through their primary sales channel with systems that were not designed to synchronize inventory across channels, making it difficult to expand distribution without added complexity. Open Distribution, formerly known as Direct Issuance, changes that.
By integrating directly with the ticketing platforms organizers already use, we can give rights holders access to StubHub’s global demand without requiring them to change systems, disrupt their existing workflows, or enter new distribution contracts. For example, in the first quarter, we announced an integration with a primary ticketing company that tickets rights holders like Stanford University Athletics, among others. Through a direct connection between the primary system and StubHub’s marketplace, organizers can choose to list tickets on StubHub within their existing dashboard. Integrations like this enable all of the primary’s clients to activate StubHub as an additional distribution channel through a simple workflow. We also continue to develop advertising, which represents an exciting opportunity to realize additional potential of our leading marketplace platform. StubHub sits at the intersection of high intent consumer demand and live event discovery.
Over time, we believe that creates opportunities to help partners reach fans in highly relevant ways while improving the overall experience on our platform. We are in the testing phase with advertising, and our focus remains on building it thoughtfully and in a way that is consistent with our broader consumer-first approach. In April, we announced an integration with Anthropic’s Claude that lets fans discover and browse live events. Claude users can access StubHub’s global catalog of live events with up-to-the-minute price and seat level availability. The partnership builds on StubHub’s ChatGPT integration announced at the end of last year. We view AI through two lenses: the opportunity to transform the end user product and the ability to transform productivity internally through greater and faster innovation with higher efficiency.
We have several AI initiatives underway related to post-purchase support, customer experience enhancement, product development, and expanded insights, just to name a few. In conclusion, we are off to a positive start to 2026 with solid 1st quarter results that position us to achieve our financial outlook for the year. Our core resale marketplace continues to grow while increasing profitability. We are generating strong cash flow and strengthening the balance sheet. We are continuing to invest in technology and distribution opportunities that we believe will expand our reach over time. We remain focused on executing in pursuit of our vision to build the global destination for consumers to access live entertainment. With that, I’ll turn it over to Connie to discuss our financial results and outlook in more detail.
Connie James, Chief Financial Officer, StubHub: Thank you, Eric. Good afternoon, everyone. Before turning to our first quarter results, I want to briefly reiterate the financial framework aligned to our strategic objectives that Eric discussed. Durable GMS growth, meaningful margin expansion, and continued strength in free cash flow generation. Our results in the quarter demonstrate progress in each of these areas. Beginning with GMS, our marketplace grew approximately 7% to $2.2 billion in the first quarter, reflecting contributions from all three drivers of our growth strategy: North American resale growth, continued market share leadership, and international growth. The market share gains achieved in 2025 now provide a foundation for margin expansion as we leverage the scale, network effects, and efficiency of our marketplace. International growth outpaced North America with noteworthy performance in Latin America and Asia Pacific, reflecting the continued strength of our global platform.
As expected, our reported GMS for the first quarter reflects the comparability impact from the all-in pricing implementation introduced in May last year. We will fully lap that comparability period in the second quarter. Before discussing our income statement in detail, a reminder that my remarks will be on an adjusted basis, excluding stock-based compensation and non-recurring items. Full reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures are available in our earnings release. Turning to the income statement. Revenue increased 12% year-over-year to $446 million, outpacing GMS growth in the quarter. This reflects the normalization of GMS to revenue conversion as we lap our market share investments in 2025. Now that we have moved beyond that investment period, we expect conversion to return to more typical historical levels, approaching 20% for the full year.
Gross margin was 85%, expanding approximately 100 basis points year-over-year and consistent with our mid-80% operating framework. The improvement reflects stronger unit economics driven by increased efficiency in customer acquisition and servicing, as well as lower inventory costs. Sales and marketing expense was approximately 50% of revenue, representing a 500 basis point improvement year-over-year, reflecting increased efficiency at scale. Operations and support costs were approximately 3% of revenue, consistent with our expectations. G&A expense increased by approximately 170 basis points as a percentage of revenue, primarily driven by elevated professional fees and front-loading of payroll taxes associated with higher stock-based compensation following our IPO. We expect G&A to decrease as a percentage of revenue over the remainder of the year as the business continues to scale.
Adjusted EBITDA was $72.1 million, a margin of 16%, which expanded over 400 basis points year-over-year. The margin expansion reflects both underlying business growth and improved operating efficiency. More specifically, this improvement was driven by the combined impact of normalized revenue conversion, strong gross margins, and increased marketing efficiency. Each of these dynamics contributed in the quarter, resulting in the operating leverage outlined in our 2026 framework. Net income for the first quarter was $48 million. I would note that net income includes the effects of stock-based compensation, non-recurring items, foreign exchange and derivative gains, interest income and expense, and taxes, each of which can introduce variability relative to our adjusted results. We believe adjusted EBITDA helps to highlight trends in our operating results by excluding these items, and the reconciliation to net income is available in our earnings release.
Beyond the income statement, our cash flow performance reflects the advantages of our marketplace model. As a scaled asset-light business with gross margins above 80% and favorable working capital dynamics, we generate strong and durable operating cash flow. This is further supported by a significantly reduced interest cost burden following the repayment of over $900 million in debt in 2025. During the quarter, capital expenditures were approximately 2% of revenue, and we generated approximately $11 million of interest income. We also continue to benefit from approximately $1.2 billion of NOLs, which provide meaningful cash tax protection in the medium term. Because our business is inherently seasonal and individual quarters can reflect meaningful timing-related swings in working capital, we believe trailing twelve-month free cash flow is the most appropriate lens through which to evaluate our cash generation.
We generated approximately $298 million of free cash flow on a trailing twelve-month basis, representing 116% conversion of adjusted EBITDA. This includes approximately $189 million of net benefit from net inflows of buyer receipts and seller payments, as well as approximately $125 million of interest costs. Excluding these items, underlying free cash flow was approximately $234 million, representing 91% conversion of our trailing twelve-month adjusted EBITDA. Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with approximately $1.5 billion of cash and cash equivalents or $508 million net of seller obligations.
Net leverage improved to approximately 4 times trailing adjusted EBITDA at quarter end, down from 4.5 times at year-end 2025, reflecting both earnings growth and continued strength in cash generation. Our financial position provides meaningful flexibility to execute against our capital allocation priorities. We remain focused on organic investment, continued deleveraging, and disciplined dilution management while maintaining the flexibility to pursue opportunities that enhance shareholder value. Subsequent to quarter end, we repaid $100 million of our U.S. dollar term loan, further demonstrating our commitment to deleveraging and our ability to deploy free cash flow towards debt reduction. This brings total debt repayment over the last 12 months to more than $1 billion. As a result, our total outstanding debt is approximately $1.4 billion with no maturities until March 2030.
Related to our capital structure, during the first quarter, $314 million of preferred equity, including our Series M, N, and O shares, converted into approximately 16 million shares of Class A common stock, resulting in 374 million common shares outstanding at quarter end. In May, we granted approximately 13 million RSUs under our employee incentive plan. Equity is an important component of compensation for our employees and reinforces an ownership mentality. At the same time, we are focused on dilution management. As you can see in the share count summary in our investor presentation posted to our investor relations website today, we had approximately 399 million fully diluted shares as of March 31st, excluding performance-based RSUs and options.
Based on that fully diluted share count, we expect dilution to be in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range for the remainder of 2026, excluding performance-based RSUs and options. As of today, we believe the majority of the RSU awards for 2026 have already been granted. Turning to our full-year 2026 outlook, our first quarter performance is consistent with the framework we outlined at the beginning of the year and supports our confidence in the trajectory of the business. We are reiterating our full-year outlook for GMS and adjusted EBITDA. GMS of $9.9 billion-$10.1 billion or year-over-year growth in the range of 8%-10% and adjusted EBITDA of $400 million-$420 million.
We guide on an annual basis given the inherent seasonality of live events, which can vary quarter to quarter. We expect the first and second-half contribution to full-year GMS to remain broadly consistent with 2025. In closing, our first quarter results are consistent with the framework we outlined at the beginning of the year. We remain focused on executing against these priorities, driving sustainable GMS growth, expanding margins through operating discipline, and generating strong free cash flow, and we look forward to reporting our progress throughout the year. With that, we will open the call for questions. Operator.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners4: At this time, if you would like to ask a question, press star, then the number 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, simply press star 1 again. We will pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Eric Sheridan, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Thanks so much for taking the question. Maybe a two-parter if I can. In terms of what you’re calling out in terms of leveraging the market share gains from last year in terms of this year’s operating performance. Can you talk to us a little bit about where we are in terms of baseball innings, in terms of seeing that in the financials today and what the scope is for that leverage to play out as scale is built through the year? The second part of the question would be if you were to build that sort of scale in the leverage, and it would be at or above maybe your guided range for adjusted EBITDA as the year goes on, how do you think about investing some of those gains back into the business or outperforming philosophically adjusted EBITDA as a guide? Thanks so much.
Eric Baker, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, StubHub: Great to hear from you, Eric. Thanks so much for the question. Appreciate that. Before handing over to Connie on some of the financial details, will say, I think, as you know, look, we had set out and we said to take our leadership position and use that to continue to grow while we would inflect our margins, and we’re glad to report that that is indeed what is happening. It’s very exciting, and we continue to grow and build on our leadership position. Obviously, that’s the whole underlying basis that as you do that, you should get more operating leverage over time, which we’ve talked about before and we’re very excited about. With that, I’ll hand it over to Connie.
Connie James, Chief Financial Officer, StubHub: Thanks, Eric, and appreciate you, Eric, dialing in today. I think there’s a couple elements to your question, 1, operating leverage, and then perhaps how do we think about phasing for the remainder of the year. I’ll take those in 2 parts here. To your point, and as Eric mentioned, you know, our whole intent this year was delivering on what we said we were going to do, which is top line growth and expanding margins. We know that the scale that we got to this year off the back of the investments from the prior year positioned us well, and that’s exactly why you are seeing that operating leverage.
In terms of how we see this playing out in regards to phasing over the year, I’d point you to 2025 as a good guide for top line GMS as you think about H1 versus H2 split. In relation to profitability, as you can appreciate, as the business scales throughout the year because of the fundamentals in relation to our business model, you’re naturally going to get incremental operating leverage as the business grows. I’d expect there to be slightly more profitability flowing through towards the second half.
Eric Sheridan, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Great. Thank you.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners4: Your next question comes from the line of Doug Anmuth with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Doug Anmuth, Analyst, J.P. Morgan: Thanks for taking the questions. Can you talk more about the drivers of increased marketing efficiency and, Eric, just kinda your view on industry growth and degree of share gains for StubHub? On Open Distribution, where do you stand on kind of self-serve and AI-enabled platform build-out? If you could kinda give us some sense of pipeline around potential partners. Thank you.
Eric Baker, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, StubHub: Sure. Doug, thank you for the question. Appreciate it. A couple of different things to hit on here. Again, I’ll touch on some and then let Connie give some more color. I think in terms of growth and efficiency, which really hits on being able to grow the business while inflecting margins and sort of how that works. Again, I think, you know, fundamentally, as we’ve always said, when you have the leadership position in a marketplace business, this is what happens. You get more liquidity, you get more data, you have a better situation in terms of how you can manage your sellers. All that goodness sort of flows through in that way. I think that should, you know, that would continue, we believe, in any marketplace business and as we’ve pointed out.
I think in terms of growth, we think of growth, or I do certainly as we’ve talked about on an annual and multi-year basis as we think about it. Look, the great thing is being in the live events industry is a great place to be. Having done this for, you know, 25 years, the industry has grown and grown. People love live events. They love attending live events. They’re passionate about it. There are more and more events going on. The geographic scope of these events increases all the time, going all over the world. That is a wonderful driver of underlying growth. Again, if you’re the largest player in the market, we feel there’s tremendous opportunity that we continue to build on our leadership position.
In terms of the second part of your question, I think on Open Distribution, we’re obviously very excited about that. We’ve talked about it. I think there’s been a lot about I think many people have seen that it’s best for the consumer. There have been a number of developments where it’s been cited that basically, if you have more competition, more outlets, it’s a better thing. Anything that’s good for the fan is good for us. In terms of specifically how we’re developing that initiative. As you point out, last time, Doug, we said we’re really trying to focus on getting that into a place where you can productize it and make it turnkey and not business development oriented. That’s the focus for this year.
We’ve made a couple recent announcements, and I think to highlight that, one is around what we call our StubHub Distribution Manager, which is basically using AI to power a self-service tool that allows artists and teams and venues to list and manage tickets directly through StubHub. That is something that we’ve announced, and it’s beginning to percolate out there. These primary integrations. We also believe that when people are signed up with whoever their access control company may be, we wanna make it very seamless for them to land with that platform and do what they wanna do. We’ve had some exciting things, I think, also have been talked about, be it Stanford University Athletics and others. We’re excited about where all that is going.
We think that’s the way of the world, but again, we’re really focused on building out the product this year. I’ll pause there. I don’t know, Connie, if you have anything to add.
Connie James, Chief Financial Officer, StubHub: I just echo what you mentioned, Eric, which is, you know, the great news is we’re now the clear market leader. There’s a really healthy backdrop in relation to the live events calendar ahead of us. All of that allows us to continue to drive efficiency and while growing the business. We’re really well-positioned.
Doug Anmuth, Analyst, J.P. Morgan: Thank you both.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners4: Your next question comes from the line of Mark Mahaney with Evercore. Please go ahead.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners3: Okay. I’ll ask about, please, advertising and then a little bit more on international. I know you mentioned advertising as one of the newer growth initiatives. Sounds like you’re still in testing phase. Any more color than that? Any more advertisers that you brought onto the network we should expect materiality to begin in 2027? Any more color on that. International seemed like an area of strength, and you mentioned Asia Pac and LATAM. What drove it? Was it more activity with your current rights holders that you work with, or were you able to bring in more rights holders? Just a little bit more color on that international growth. Thank you very much.
Eric Baker, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, StubHub: Sure. Thank you, Mark. I appreciate the question and I’ll give you some responses to that. In advertising, again, I just wanna reiterate, as we said before, this remains a very exciting opportunity for us. We’ve seen this in other marketplaces, particularly we talked about sponsored listings, how that can be a win both for the seller of the ticket and if done the right way for the consumer on the website. As we’ve said, what we’re really trying to do is get this right this year so that we make sure that it works, we can scale it correctly so it becomes this wonderful self-serve platform.
In terms of, maybe giving some sense of, what are, what are the types of things we’re testing, what does that actually mean, I would point to things such as how do you optimize the auction mechanics and sort of get that right? How do we really think about the way we wanna price it? How do we think about how we not only don’t impact conversion rates, but maybe even improve them for the user? How do we make it really additive for the user experience? These are all important things ’cause that’s the number one thing is to make it work for the user. We remain committed this year, as we’ve said, to getting that right and, you know, we’ll comment on when it becomes material down the line as we said.
The second thing you asked about is international. We’re obviously very excited as you’re right, we’ve said about international, this is a global business. It’s great to have a global platform. I think what are the types of things that drive that? I think you may have noted or noticed there are many tours that are going international. There’s a lot of excitement about Latin America and Asia for many people in the market for how that content goes. I know my beloved Los Angeles Rams, I think are gonna open the NFL season in Australia this year. We’re seeing just more and more events go through internationally. Again, when you have a leadership position and a global platform, you know, all that, those benefits can accrue. We’re very excited about it.
That would be my commentary on those. Again, I don’t know, Connie, if you have anything to add.
Connie James, Chief Financial Officer, StubHub: Yeah, I’d just also say, you know, internally, we’re continuing to make sure that we have the right talent and focus on building out the international business. As Eric mentioned, we have an amazing marketplace with a legacy that’s really rooted in the international jurisdictions. Again, more live events are happening and, you know, the great news is, given our clear market leading position internationally as well, you know, there’s huge opportunity for us.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners3: Okay, thanks. Hey, Eric, I think that first game is against the 49ers. That may be a tough start, but the rest of the season should be fine.
Eric Baker, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, StubHub: Listen, Mark, we support anyone who wants to attend, even if they’re misguided on their fan support, but I appreciate it.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners3: Thanks.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners4: Your next question comes from the line of Justin Post with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners1: Great, thank you. Connie, I wanted to ask about your first half, second half phasing. It would seem the second half would be larger this year just due to the impact of all-in pricing last year and the comps, and just would love to hear your thoughts there. Second question, the World Cup, just love to hear your thoughts on how impactful that could be and how you think about your share in that market this year. Thank you.
Connie James, Chief Financial Officer, StubHub: Thanks Justin for the question. I think in regards to the phasing, you’re absolutely right. We look at the shape of our business, obviously mirroring what we see in the broader market. What we know to be true is as we sit here today, live events are gonna scale throughout the year. We’ve got obviously the World Cup coming across, mid-June to mid-July, and then you’ve got the typical seasonality with concerts building across the summer, and then you’ve got all four sports leagues towards the end of the year. Naturally the business will scale closer towards the second half. Again, I kind of point you towards what we would expect in terms of 25 in relation to a shape which was again, a bit more back half weighted.
In relation to World Cup, again, really excited about the opportunity that’s coming our way here. What I would say is that consistent what we’ve discussed before, we believe that to be a tier 1 event, again, more meaningfully in relation to Q2 and Q3 following the event matchup. The good news is, you know, we’re excited to have an outsized portion of that share, just given the benefits that we have of being the scaled leader.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners1: Great. Thank you.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners4: Your next question comes from the line of John Blackledge with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners2: Hey there, it’s Logan Wally on for John. Thanks for the questions. Maybe first, on your POS system, could you update us on progress there with ReachPro, and how should we think about its ability to drive more volume on the platform and maybe also how your share looks there versus the largest competitor? On the regulatory front, could you update us on regulatory developments in the U.K., specifically as they relate to potential price cap proposals? Thank you.
Eric Baker, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, StubHub: Sure. Thank you. Thank you for the questions. Appreciate it. I think, you asked about our POS system, ReachPro, and then had some questions about the U.K. In terms of POS system, everything has been progressing the way I think we articulated before, that we continue to grow our share, bring people on board. I believe what we’ve said is that we will be the leader in that over the medium term. That is nothing to change that sentiment. That’s been going well.
Obviously, as we’ve also said before, by becoming that operating system for a number of sellers and even giving them a much better experience than what they’ve had historically, that helps people sell more tickets, and it helps them sell more tickets on StubHub, we believe, as they have that data advantage. We’re excited about that. That continues. In terms of your question about, I think, the U.K. and price caps, I think we’ve always said, you know, we’re always in a very good environment for 20-plus years. People sell tickets. They love resale. Occasionally, there are jurisdictions that make noises about looking into price caps and somewhat, that has been basically few and far between. When it’s happened, it hasn’t really worked.
By that I mean it’s ended up hurting consumers in those places where it reduces access to events, increases black market prices and fraud. In fact, our studies have shown over 4 times the amount of fraud in those types of markets. Secondly, it’s become increasingly impractical to enforce as difficult as it’s been, as there’s dynamic pricing in the primary market and the concept of face value goes away. All that is a long way of just couching it that that’s why we haven’t seen this spread, and we don’t see that as something that makes a ton of sense.
That being said, I’ll come back to your point about the U.K., what’s important is that we, of course, wanna make sure we’re educating regulators and educating legislators about why, while it may be well-intended in their mind, it doesn’t work and shouldn’t be pursued. That’s what we do, and we find people to be very receptive to that. As they learn more, they realize it doesn’t make a ton of sense and certainly is worth even considering further or maybe not moving forward. What we’ve seen with the U.K., I think today they gave the King’s Speech and there was no price cap legislation that was in the King’s Speech.
I think as we’ve mentioned before, even if there had been, which there was not, this would have kicked off a multi-year process that may or may not have resulted in something as they’re educated. In this case, that’s pushed even further down the road to the next King’s Speech. We think it’s a further, if it happens at all. I think it’s just further evidence of the fact that these types of policies, while maybe well-meaning by some, just aren’t really good for consumers, and therefore don’t gain much traction.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners2: Great. Thanks, Eric.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners4: Your next question comes from the line of Brian Pitz with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Brian Pitz, Analyst, BMO Capital Markets: Thanks for the questions. Maybe two broader ones. First, unlike last year and this year, we’ve already seen roughly a dozen concert tours already canceled. What do you think is really driving this, you know, outside of maybe some of the unexpected health issues? We are seeing some buzz around consumer concerns on higher ticket prices. Love to get your thoughts on that. The macro has changed noticeably since we last spoke two months ago. Have you observed, you know, any indication that fans may be trading down to lower priced seats or re-reducing the frequency of event attendance? Any thoughts there would be helpful. Thank you.
Eric Baker, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, StubHub: Yeah. No, thank you for the questions. Really appreciate it, Brian. I think, on the first thing I think you’re asking something about canceled events. Again, I’ll kick it over to Connie, but we haven’t seen any of that in any way that’s on our radar. Connie can tell you about that.
Connie James, Chief Financial Officer, StubHub: Yeah. That’s exactly right. Again, we just ran the flash financials yesterday. There’s no spike. Q2 continues to progress really well.
Eric Baker, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, StubHub: That, that’s not anything that we’ve seen. In terms of your second question is, I think, related to sort of how do you think about is there any slowdown with a recession or gas prices going up and all those types of things. I think, again, the quick answer is no. We haven’t seen any impact on that. I think what’s important, though, to contextualize for everybody, and I’ve mentioned this before, is that having done this for, you know, 26 years now, it’s always been an extremely resilient sector. It’s grown through everything, say, COVID, and the economy goes up, geopolitics go up and down. Why is that? I think it’s because a couple reasons.
One is there’s tremendous passion in the fans. They love live events. If you’re a Green Bay Packers fan or a music fan, you’re gonna go to that concert. That’s not the first thing you’re gonna cut or think about. It’s closer to a necessity than you may think. The second thing is we have various price points we always have across the board. Nothing’s really changed with that. The steady state is, you know, half of all tickets on StubHub trade at less than $100. That’s always sort of been the case. You know, we really see it as fans are passionate about live events. It’s always been something that’s grown through thick and thin.
From where we sit today, that continues to occur, and we see no reason why it won’t continue happening.
Brian Pitz, Analyst, BMO Capital Markets: Great. Thank you very much.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners4: Your next question comes from the line of Shweta Khajuria with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners6: Okay. Thank you for taking my questions. I have 2 follow-up on some of the prior questions. 1 is what you just addressed, which is on macro. Could you please comment on something like this when we saw a, you know, in prior history at StubHub and when there was inflationary pressure and mix shift in wallet spend towards perhaps necessities, how StubHub actually did in terms of demand trends? That’s question number 1. 2 is a follow-up on the World Cup impact. It is a Tier 1 event. Is it fair to assume the impact sort of comparable to, you know, I guess Taylor Swift type sort of contribution to your financials? Thank you
Eric Baker, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, StubHub: Thank you, Shweta. Thank you for the questions. I can talk about the macro, and I’m sure Connie can reiterate some of the stuff on the World Cup. I think on the macro, as I said, again, we’ll reiterate the reasons that consumers are resilient. In terms of to your question, why cite that as sort of lived experience. You go all the way back to when we started. We went through 9/11. Of course, the company was very small at that point, but the first tickets were sold in the summer of 2000. Right after 9/11, it wasn’t gangbusters.
We lived through the great financial crisis, which I can’t, I guess I can’t comment exactly on inflation, whatnot, but it was not a very happy time for lots of consumers. Continued to go through that. we’ve seen obviously, I think, recently in 2022 to 2023, where inflation had spiked, relatively speaking, again, the company and live events continue to grow. certainly through our lived experience in many cycles, at least through 26 years, that has always proven to been be the case. Again, short COVID, that’s what’s happened. that’s what gives me that confidence and that lived experience on it. any more about the World Cup, Connie can comment on.
Connie James, Chief Financial Officer, StubHub: Yeah, I’m happy to add a little bit more color on that. Shweta, as we went through our process of evaluating the opportunity from the World Cup, again, we included this as a tier 1. To be crystal clear, it is not comparable to Taylor Swift. She is a 1 of 1. What I would also just highlight, and Eric mentioned this earlier, is that 1 of the benefits of our marketplace is that it’s just very diverse. We have a number of various segments, geographies that we benefit from, and so we’re not single-threaded on any specific event in order to achieve our outlook. In fact, you know, as we sit here today, Q2’s tracking well. You would have seen that we reiterated the guide.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners6: Okay. Thank you very much.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners4: Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Boone with Citizens. Please go ahead.
Andrew Boone, Analyst, Citizens: Thanks so much for taking my questions. I wanted to ask a little bit about the potential of the antitrust settlement that you mentioned earlier. Can you give us a idea of the spectrum of either operational or financial outcomes that may become available depending on kind of which way this swings, whether something more favorable is really important to you guys, or whether this doesn’t really materially move the needle. Then I wanted to ask about your just adoption of AI chatbots. Can you guys help us understand what that looks like in the future? Understood it’s small today, but what’s kind of the bigger picture vision as you guys start to integrate with AI chatbots? Thank you so much.
Eric Baker, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, StubHub: Sure. Thank you for the question, Andrew. I guess the first is around the Live Nation stuff with the DOJ and the second around AI chatbots. I think on the first, I’ll just give you the straight quick answer is everything that we’re talking about here today, and all of our guidance, projections, dreams, and everything we want to do, is not hinged on any outcome from the DOJ or Ticketmaster in any direction. That’s that. I think the only thing, you know, what I would reiterate is, look, anything that pushes more towards Open Distribution, and is better for consumers, meaning more selection, more ease of multiple channels, non-exclusively, everything that we’ve talked about, that’s always positive. It’s great to see that that’s what’s been talked about.
Again, it remains to be seen what does or doesn’t get implemented. Again, that’s all, you know, upside, if you will, potentially. In terms of your question on chatbots, I think you may be talking about or alluding to some of the stuff we’ve done with AIs. We’ve done some interesting integrations with ChatGPT and with Claude. As we sit here today, the way I would think about it is we wanna be wherever consumers are gonna be in the future through any channel and every channel. As we sit here today, we don’t see any changes in consumer behavior. The Google channel is just as powerful as ever through traditional search. We know we wanna be ahead of the curve on anything that may or may not develop.
As we think about it, we wanna make it so that the experience is as easy and seamless to meet consumers where they are. We think that’s part of sort of using our data and distribution to provide the best experience for consumers and also for the content right holders when they do Open Distribution, so they know they’re going through every channel and every way to reach everyone. That’s our thought process there.
Andrew Boone, Analyst, Citizens: Great. Thank you.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners4: Your next question comes from the line of Jed Kelly with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Eric Baker, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, StubHub: Hey, great. Thanks for taking my question. Just getting back to the concerts and the Open Distribution, is that more of a conversation with the promoters and if you’re able to reach a couple promoters that can scale relatively quickly, or is it with the venues? Just as a follow-up, how should we think about fee caps in individual states in the U.S.? Thanks. Sure. Okay. I think two questions there. The first on sort of the Open Distribution, Jed. Again, this is really the concept is that anyone who has a ticket to sell should use our data and distribution in a non-exclusive way to reach consumers and do well. That can be anybody who’s sort of issuing a ticket.
Sometimes on the side, it could be a venue, it could be a promoter, it could be the artist themselves. We’re sort of indifferent to that. It should work for anybody depending on how they’ve decided to control distribution of the tickets. That’s, that’s how we sort of think about that. Again, as I’ve emphasized before, it’s really about just making the product so simple and so seamless, whether it’s through just linking it up to us or integrating whatever their primary is, that it’s just a no-brainer that you’re gonna wanna reach more consumers on a non-exclusive basis. That’s, it’s a little bit of how we think about that.
Then again, I think you’re talking about, I’ve already addressed sort of the price caps and why we think that really doesn’t work well for consumers. It’s not consumer friendly, and we don’t see that going. I think if you’re talking about fees, I guess what I would say again, it’s sort of similar to sort of the types of economics that don’t make a lot of sense. I think what I would point to is really what the states have been after is the transparency, which was the all-in pricing. A lot of what we’ve seen is that when it comes to fees, the key thing is making it very clear that consumers know what they’re paying and making very clear that it’s all in upfront.
That’s why we spend time actually lobbying for all-in pricing, and we think that any development like that that’s good for a consumer, and makes people compete based on what’s good for the consumer will be good for StubHub.
Jed Kelly, Analyst, Oppenheimer: Thank you.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners4: Your next question comes from the line of Cameron Mansson-Perrone with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Cameron Mansson-Perrone, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Thanks. Good afternoon. A follow-up on the Claude and OpenAI partnerships. I’m just curious if you could provide some color on the level of activity that you’re seeing move through those channels so far. Obviously, it’s a little early for Claude, but maybe for OpenAI. How you see those integrations with those platforms or with similar platforms evolving over time. Thanks.
Eric Baker, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, StubHub: Great. Thank you for the question, Cameron. Appreciate it. Again, what I would say is that, you know, our whole point of view is we wanna be where consumers are, where they may be in the future, and we wanna meet them and have them be able to meet with us through multiple touch points and the best product experience. Clearly everything happening with AI and how it can be applied, including through some of these platforms, is an important thing to be on the cutting edge of, and sort of that’s what we’ve done and integrated with. Those are not material things right now, but again, we’re always thinking to the future and these things can be exciting, and we see it even as complementary channels to the strong channels that we haven’t seen any impact on today.
That’s, you know, we just think more and more that our advantage of being the scale player and the leader in the marketplace with the best product and the best technology and the best data and distribution should advantage us to work through any and all distribution channels and any and all technological developments as long as we’re there. That’s why it’s important that we’re on the front foot working with folks like Claude, Anthropic and ChatGPT.
Cameron Mansson-Perrone, Analyst, Morgan Stanley: Helpful. Thanks.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners4: Your next question comes from the line of Jason Bazinet with Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Jason Bazinet, Analyst, Citigroup: This is a question on sales and marketing. You guys noted that the sales and marketing expenses were 50% of revenues down from 55% of a year ago. If I go back 2 years, it was 46% of revenues. If I go back 3 years, it was 37% of revenues. What’s going on? Why is it sort of up over the long term? What is the right sales and marketing intensity for this business?
Connie James, Chief Financial Officer, StubHub: Yeah, I’m happy to take that one. If you step back and you really think about the course of the history and the journey that we’ve been on in StubHub, I think that there’s a clear understanding of what we’ve been trying to do. Over the course of, you know, both 2024 and 2025, there was a period of investment. What we know to be true is that being the clear market leader in a marketplace environment creates a tremendous amount of scale. As you look at those various investments, what I can tell you, they’ve been very deliberate to drive specific outcomes in which we’re really pleased with the ultimate result.
As we sit here in 2026, we’ve been very clear about what our financial framework is for this year now that we’ve reached that level of scale being the clear market leader, which is our ability to not only drive top-line growth, but also expand margins, and that’s exactly what you’re seeing show up in Q1. 7% top-line growth, 400 basis point improvement on the bottom line, and as I mentioned, we would expect further improvement as you look through the course of the year.
Jason Bazinet, Analyst, Citigroup: Thank you.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners4: Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Sigdahl with Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Please go ahead.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners5: Hey, good afternoon, Eric, Connie. Take rate was up over 100 basis points both year-over-year and sequentially. Curious what the main drivers of that were and if that level is sustainable going forward?
Connie James, Chief Financial Officer, StubHub: Yeah, happy to take that, good to be with you today, Ryan. Again, it was really an intentional outcome of the strategy that we set forth this year. If you rewind back to 2025, as I mentioned, it was really a period of investment in order to accrete market share. We’re really pleased again with our outcome now being the clear market leader. What you’re seeing is a more normalized level of this GMS to revenue conversion. What I’d say looking forward is that we expect that to continue to return to what I’ll call more typical historical levels, think approaching 20% as a blended rate for the full year. Simply, this is just a change in our strategy again as we really focus on driving the top line, expanding margins, all which is again, the benefit of reaching scale.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners5: Great. Thank you.
Connie James, Chief Financial Officer, StubHub: Thanks.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners4: Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Ross with LightShed Partners. Please go ahead.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners: Hi. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess a couple of follow-ups to prior questions. First, on the Live Nation settlement, one thing we noticed is that while the settlement allows venues to sell tickets through other platforms, it stipulates those sales can only be through other primary ticketing marketplaces. If that gets implemented, does that change your Open Distribution or Direct Issuance strategy, maybe give you desire to get into real, like, traditional access control primary ticketing? Then on the price caps, Ontario recently went to price caps, and Toronto’s a pretty big city, so maybe a decent case study there. I know it’s early, but can you just kind of tell us what you’ve seen?
Eric Baker, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, StubHub: Sure. Brandon, thank you for the questions. Appreciate it. I think in terms of the Live Nation stuff and sort of as we’d say, what we’ve observed is basically everything’s about opening up distribution, allowing it to open up. In terms of the specifics and the things that they may try to negotiate and how they want to define it, we’ll see where it all shakes out. I think it’s very clear, at least to me, when you look at it, that it’s really about more competition for consumers and creating an open distribution thing. Again, as I said, whatever happens, if nothing happens there, nothing changes with our conviction of everything we’re doing, but it certainly seems like, at least the indications are it’ll be better than the status quo or status quo ante.
Then in terms of, as you mentioned, again, we’ve addressed the price cap stuff. There’s always been jurisdictions over the years that have looked at doing this stuff, and they roll it out and, you know, obviously then there becomes a lot of details in terms of how that works, if it works, and oftentimes they get rolled back. Again, at this point in time, there’s nothing that’s materially impacting our business. So, we’ll see how everything plays out.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners: Thank you.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners4: Your final question comes from the line of Lloyd Walmsley with Mizuho Securities. Please go ahead.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners7: Thank you. This is Wei calling for Lloyd. Congrats on the solid results first. I have two quick questions. Number 1, I think it’s been almost half a year since you recalibrated your market share, marketplace take rate. Things seems to be doing well, but can you help give us an update on vendor reception and also maybe the industry competitive dynamics you have observed so far? Secondly, I was wondering if you could comment on the monthly GMS growth trend in the quarter and then in the month of April. Curious how much the outsize of tax return this year was helping. Thank you.
Eric Baker, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, StubHub: Thank you for the questions. Appreciate it. I’ll give it to Connie on some of it. I think he had some financials. One thing I think, if I take the question, is basically saying, wow, you’ve been able to grow while increasing your margins and inflecting margins. How is that possible to do? I think, again, as a leader and a leading marketplace, we’re able to provide the best possible service, the best possible liquidity, the best possible data, and distribution for everyone and a great experience for consumers.
I think the performance sort of speaks that, again, as we’ve talked about and as we’ve said, we’re able to grow while inflecting margins through these various levers, and we expect that to continue along the lines we discussed. With that, I’ll hand it over to Connie maybe briefly as we wrap up about I think the question was about how are things looking as we move forward in this quarter.
Connie James, Chief Financial Officer, StubHub: Yeah. I’m happy to take that. You know, the good news is, as we sit here today, you know, the second quarter is shaping up in line with our expectations, hence why we reiterated our guide for the full year. We look forward to giving you more of an update. Again, we don’t look at things on a monthly basis, but rather, again, we’re really focused on how the full year shapes up. The good news is we have all of the building blocks intact. North American growth, international growth, clear market leadership, and importantly, all in the backdrop of a healthy live events calendar. We look forward to sharing more as the year progresses.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners7: Great. Thank you.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners4: That concludes our question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Eric Baker for closing remarks.
Eric Baker, Founder, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, StubHub: Thanks again, everyone, for joining us today. We’re executing well against our business and financial objectives, and our focus remains on growing our top line, expanding our margins, and continuing to pursue initiatives to broaden our reach. We look forward to continuing to update you on the progress in the months to come. Have a great night.
Brandon Ross, Analyst, LightShed Partners4: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.