Spire Global Q1 2026 Earnings Call - Revenue and EBITDA Beat, 76% of 2026 Guidance Contracted, and Catalysts Moving into Back Half

Conference Call Moderator: Good evening, and welcome to the Spire Global First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. It’s now my pleasure to turn the call over to Benjamin Hackman, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Benjamin Hackman, Head of Investor Relations, Spire Global: Thank you. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining Spire’s First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Our earnings press release and related SEC filings are posted on the company’s investor relations website, and a replay of today’s call will be made available. With me today are Theresa Condor, CEO, and Alison Engel, CFO. Our commentary today will include non-GAAP items. Reconciliations between our GAAP and non-GAAP results, as well as our guidance, can be found in our earnings press release, which can be found on our IR website. Some of our comments today contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions. In particular, our expectations around our future results of operations and financial condition are uncertain and subject to change. Should any of these expectations fail to materialize, or should our assumptions prove to be incorrect, actual company results SEC filings. With that, Theresa.

Theresa Condor, Chief Executive Officer, Spire Global: Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Q1 confirmed the shape of the year we described to you in March and added forward visibility on top of it. The print came in above the high end of our guidance on both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Core revenue ex maritime grew 13% year-over-year. Our 50% full year growth guidance is unchanged. We described 2026 as second half-weighted, sequentially building with the catalysts that bridge Q1 to the back half as specific, named, and actively in motion. The risks that remain are primarily delivery risks, and delivery is what we do. Before I take you through Q1, there are two structural facts to highlight. We have launched more than 240 satellites across more than 40 campaigns, and we have reserved launch capacity through 2028.

Across the satellite services peer group, growth is increasingly being throttled by access to launch. We are not in that constraint. Reserved launch capacity is not something a new entrant can replicate quickly. It directly underwrites our ability to scale RFGL collection capacity, deploy additional weather payloads, and meet commercial space services obligations on our own schedule rather than the industry’s. We have operational scaled transatlantic manufacturing with production facilities in the U.S. Yarmouth’s become more central to defense procurement. Our recent Munich opening was attended by local political and military leadership who toured the clean room and saw the scope of our local capabilities firsthand. Reserved launch through 2028 and dual continent manufacturing are the moats. Everything I describe in the next 7 minutes compounds against them.

Across both the public market and private capital and being who can deliver at scale with verified on-orbit performance and with sovereign-ready manufacturing. That set of requirements narrows the field considerably. The first quarter demonstrated that the platform we described on the Q4 call is now translating into measurable progress. We deployed 19 satellites across two launches, which expanded our RFGL collection capacity by six new satellite pairings. We demonstrated single satellite geolocation for S-band and X-band signals, frequencies critical for defense missions, and a capability that has traditionally required multiple coordinated satellites. This expands what we can do at lower constellation cost and broadens our addressable defense market. We were awarded five new RFGL orders from U.S. customers and signed three new international RFGL customers. RFGL is no longer a technical milestone. It is converting into revenue.

In weather, our new Hyperspectral Microwave Sounder achieved first light with the demonstrator and is now delivering data to our end user customer. On-orbit observations are meeting and in many cases exceeding our technical targets. We are incorporating this data stream into ongoing discussions with NOAA and allied meteorological agencies. In commercial, two patterns across our book are now consistent enough to call them structural. First, new commercial contract duration has lengthened, with some wins moving into multi-year subscriptions. Second, the character of customer engagement is changing. Q1 saw existing commercial customers expanding their use of our data into new workflows and new business units rather than holding flat at their initial use case. The commercial base is becoming stickier and more compounding. Our integration with Amadeus, supporting their service to more than 400 airlines globally, is a Q1 example of that pattern.

Our AI S2S model demonstrated 14.2% outperformance of the leading global sub-seasonal weather benchmark at the critical 3-6 week range. Measured using the standard skill score methodology against a multi-month verification window, giving energy trading desks a differentiated edge on hedging decisions. The post Q1 catalysts that should be on every investor’s radar are concrete and dated. The first is NOAA. We have multiple in-year proposals being submitted this month for microwave sounding, supported by the verified high quality of HyMS on-orbit data. Across the NOAA portfolio, we are actively bidding more than $150 million of 2026 opportunities, with more than half an active proposal as of this month. The $8 billion NOAA IDIQ covers 7 data types, 4 of which Spire can deliver with infrastructure already on orbit. That distinction matters.

Most commercial weather data providers can deliver 1 or 2. In Europe, Germany is moving forward procurement efforts around RF intelligence into the back half of the year. European defense budgets are rising at a pace not seen in decades. EUR 381 billion spent in 2025 on a target of EUR 800 billion annually within 5 years, a 16% CAGR. Germany alone budgeted EUR 108 billion for 2026, more than double its level of 5 years ago. Our dual continent footprint is the differentiator in these conversations. The structure of these opportunities is consistent. Pilot, then data subscription, then full constellation deployment. Additional RFGL collection capacity continues to come online from the Q1 launches, with full operational status reached through Q2 and Q3. This is the path between Q1’s revenue print and the back half acceleration.

Beyond the near-term catalyst, the substance of our 2026 guidance is in execution today. Our existing NOAA radio occultation contract, the $11.2 million one-year award from last year, is in full execution, and we expect uplift on that program at greater scope this year. Our European radio occultation contract, our space services contracts, our RFGL deals, and our recently expanded commercial agreements are in delivery mode through the year. Initial revenue from microwave sounder data sales begins in 2026. On the contracted base specifically, approximately 76% of our 2026 revenue guidance is under contract today. Beyond that hard contracted layer, we have additional visibility from sole source procurements where Spire is the expected awardee. Programs where the procurement structure, the customer relationship, and the technical fit make us the named provider.

The sole source visibility is a meaningful additional layer of confidence in our range on top of the contracted base. I have 3 observations on the multi-year setup. The microwave sounder market opportunity is significant. NOAA itself has stated that more than 90% of National Weather Service model accuracy depends on satellite data, with microwave sounders being a foundational input. The legacy government microwave sounding satellites cost $ billions per generation to procure. NOAA has been explicit about its intent to buy more commercial data rather than build another generation of bespoke government systems. Apply commercial radio occultation pricing precedents to that demand picture, and a $ multi-billion TAM over the next decade is not aggressive. Our HyMS instrument captures more frequency bands than traditional sounders and offers atmospheric depth that government systems do not currently provide. The international defense pipeline structure is multi-step and multi-year.

Pilots converting to data subscriptions converting to constellation deployments. The pilots we have signed in 2025 and 2026 are the leading indicator for the data programs that follow them in 2027 and 2028. The commercial book compounds. As customers embed our data directly into operational workflows, whether decision-making, risk management, aviation, energy trading, our services become core to their business. Every new use case adds revenue on top of an installed base that doesn’t easily go away. We continue to make targeted technology investments. We signed an agreement with the European Space Agency with contributions from the UK Space Agency and the Italian Space Agency. As constellations scale across the industry, autonomous fleet management becomes an increasingly valuable capability and one we are positioned to provide. There are 3 things to take from this call.

First, the year’s revenue base is now substantially in execution, not in pipeline. The majority of our 2026 guidance is under contract today, with additional visibility from sole source procurements layered on top. The work between here and the high end of our $75 million-$85 million range is execution. Second, the catalysts that decide the back half are not abstract. They are specific, named, and in motion. NOAA in-year proposals on microwave sounding now being submitted. European RF intelligence procurement progressing into the back half and RFGL collection capacity reaching full operational status through Q2 and Q3. Third, the operating leverage you have been hearing about for several quarters is about to become visible in the gross margin line. It will accelerate from there. Between now and our next call, the milestones investors should watch are concrete.

NOAA proposal decisions on the in-year submissions, RFGL contract conversions, and continued capacity expansion across our RFGL collection footprint. We will keep you updated as those events occur. Ali, over to you.

Alison Engel, Chief Financial Officer, Spire Global: Thank you, Theresa. Theresa gave us a clear view of the demand environment. Let’s discuss the numbers. As a reminder, unless otherwise noted, I’ll be discussing non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations between our GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures are included in our press release. GAAP revenue for the first quarter was $15.8 million, which came in above the high end of our guidance range. Without the $1.9 million of maritime revenue, core revenue grew 13% year-over-year, the primary driver was civil government weather data purchases. Non-GAAP gross margin was 44%, an improvement of 5 points over the prior year. 60%-70% long-term gross margin target is unchanged. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $10.2 million, also above the high end of our guidance range, driven by stronger revenue and disciplined cost management.

We used $26.2 million, legal and professional fees. These fees are expected to decline throughout 2026. Spire remains debt-free. We exited the first quarter with approximately $50 million in cash and marketable securities. On April 10th, we closed a private placement which added $65.5 million in net proceeds to our balance sheet. Our cash balance gives us ample runway to execute against our growth plans. We expect our current cash position to fund us through adjusted EBITDA breakeven and beyond. The capital raise was in response, in part, to a discrete window of strong inbound demand from institutional investors. It allows us to accelerate growth into 2027 and beyond as demand continues to build, particularly across defense and intelligence and weather data procurement. We are maintaining our full year 2026 guidance for revenue, non-GAAP operating loss and adjusted EBITDA.

Revenue remains expected in the range of $75 million-$85 million, representing over 50% year-over-year growth on an ex maritime basis at the midpoint. Full year adjusted EBITDA guidance is unchanged at -$26 million to -$20.7 million, and full-year non-GAAP operating loss guidance is unchanged at -$37.8 million to -$32.6 million. Full year non-GAAP loss per share is expected between -$0.93 and -$0.79 per share on approximately 37.9 million shares. Spire is changing how we communicate guidance going forward. Starting this quarter, we’re going to give annual guidance rather than quarterly guidance. This change is driven by the current nature of our business. Large government and enterprise contracts close on customer timelines, not on 90-day calendar quarters.

Quarterly estimates imply a precision we can’t reliably deliver in any given quarter, and they create noise that really isn’t a signal. Our internal forecasting and visibility into the year are the same as they’ve always been. What’s changing is the format. On the path to profitability, three things are no longer variables. Our cost base is increasingly fixed. Satellites are on orbit, the ground infrastructure is built, transatlantic manufacturing is operational, and engineering teams are in place. Within reasonable bounds, our operating expenses over the next several quarters are reasonably predictable. Reserved launch capacity through 2028 means deployment running 27 revenues. Every incremental dollar of revenue against our current cost base converts at higher margins. We continue to target adjusted EBITDA breakeven in the fourth quarter of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027 timeframe, followed by positive operating cash flow sometime in 2027.

Every pipeline conversion accelerates our cash flow goals. The platform we described on our fourth quarter call is now visibly producing. The trajectory we described has continued and the financial model is performing as expected. With that, let’s open it up for questions.

Conference Call Moderator: Thank you. We’ll now be conducting a question and answer session. If you’d like to be placed into question queue, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you’d like to remove yourself from the queue. 1 moment please while we pull for questions. Our first question is coming from Erik Rasmussen from Stifel. Your line is now live.

Erik Rasmussen, Analyst, Stifel: Thanks for taking the questions. On the RFGL, that sounds like you made a lot of progress. You had 5 new in- U.S. and 3 international customers orders. It sounds like, are you generating revenue today? Maybe just how big of an opportunity are you tracking, whether it’s this year or, you know, in the coming years?

Theresa Condor, Chief Executive Officer, Spire Global: Yeah. I’ll say, yes, we are generating RFGL revenue today. We continue to build out the pipeline of that. I think as you know, we don’t give exact pipeline numbers. What I can say is that we’ve been increasing what we do, both in the U.S. and in Europe. The NRO has continued to add to the contract that we have with them, we continue to go through the process of pilot into data subscription, into talking about sovereign constellations, particularly on the European side of things. I’m super excited about what is happening on the RFGL side right now. With the geopolitical situation just continues to reinforce that, both in the U.S. and around the world, there’s a great demand for this type of capability.

Very few, you know, very few companies that can actually meet that demand, both on the U.S. side and on the non-U.S. side.

Erik Rasmussen, Analyst, Stifel: Great. Maybe just, Alison Engel, for you, just to shift. Should we think about the changes to annual guidance as primarily driven by, you know, deal timing becoming less linear across the quarters than rather any change in underlying visibility of demand? As you make that shift, what metrics should we focus on, you know, throughout the year to track the progress against that?

Alison Engel, Chief Financial Officer, Spire Global: Um, I think that-

Erik Rasmussen, Analyst, Stifel: Your annual outlook.

Alison Engel, Chief Financial Officer, Spire Global: You know, hey, Erik. Good to talk to you. Yeah, I think the change in the guidance is really just based on what we’re seeing in the business and where we wanna spend our time, which is focused. Really ups and downs are more of a distraction. I’d focus on our annual guidance, which we are reaffirming from our last call and how we are performing against those expectations during the year.

Erik Rasmussen, Analyst, Stifel: Great. Maybe just my last one. You opened up the satellite manufacturing facility in Munich. It sounds like you’d be able to produce 100 satellites. Are you at that point yet? When will you be at that capacity? Then maybe was this intentional in relation to the EURIALO project? Maybe just comment on how that maybe positions yourselves to potentially win and, you know, execute if you do go on to the next phase.

Theresa Condor, Chief Executive Officer, Spire Global: Yeah. The manufacturing facility is open in Munich. I think you probably saw some of the announcements about it. We had a really successful kind of opening and visitor session that happened earlier today in the European time zone. We have really 300-400 satellite capacity across those facilities when we talk about Boulder, we talk about Munich, and we talk about, of course, what we can still continue to do in Glasgow. The EURIALO satellites are the first ones that are being integrated out of that Munich facility. Certainly those are the ones that get it kicked off and started, give us the ability to continue to do European specific sovereign capabilities.

It’s, you know, I think it’s pretty exciting that we have those capabilities on both sides of the Atlantic and is really a competitive differentiator for us.

Erik Rasmussen, Analyst, Stifel: Great. Thanks.

Theresa Condor, Chief Executive Officer, Spire Global: Thanks, Erik.

Conference Call Moderator: Thank you. Our next question is coming from Jeff Van Rhee from Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Your line is now live.

Jeff Van Rhee, Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group: Great. Thanks for taking the questions. A couple for me, Theresa, on the help scope back to the prior question. Can you help scope a deal, you know, kind of what you’re seeing in terms of, maybe the timeline of a deal in the pipeline when it shows up, how long you think it-

Theresa Condor, Chief Executive Officer, Spire Global: Yeah. You know, every single deal is different, right? It’s really hard to talk about what is going to be the average. I will say things do move faster in the U.S. On the RFGL side, those can move very quickly within a matter of weeks. This is what is so exciting about RFGL capability because a lot of it is driven about real operational capabilities that are needed given events that are happening around the world. On the European side, it is slower, there’s no doubt. The timeline from going to pilot into data subscription is really very much dependent on the country, on their procurement mechanisms and their timelines of things.

Jeff Van Rhee, Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group: On the NOAA front, I mean, obviously the IDIQ and the budget intentions there look to just be absolutely massive. Congrats on the quick early light on the Hyperspectral Microwave Sounder. Just curious. You commented a bit on the data. Could you just expand a little bit more on that, in terms of are you far enough into that? Have you got a broad enough data set to give you the conviction that the data quality relative to NOAA needs is there or better at this point?

Theresa Condor, Chief Executive Officer, Spire Global: The short answer is yes. We’re delivering that data right now. I believe, in fact, we are getting paid for that data, and we expect to continue to have procurement around that data set from that satellite that is in orbit today. I think I will add the opportunities with NOAA. We talked about some of that pipeline. I mentioned over $150 million of stuff that is in year between the various data types, RO as well as, you know, multiple related to microwave sounding. I can’t, you know, under or emphasize enough how different this is from where NOAA was in prior years. Like, it’s really pretty exciting, all the stuff that is being worked on right now.

The team is pretty hectic, I have to say, responding to all these.

Jeff Van Rhee, Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group: Yeah. It’s great to see the move to commercial really playing out in scale. Maybe one last. Just curious if you could comment on the broader space services pipeline. You had a nice signing a little while back with Deloitte eight-figure deal. You were just commenting on the Munich capacity coming online. Obviously, you’ve got capacity, proven ability to launch. Just curious what that’s doing to your space services pipeline and how it’s evolving.

Theresa Condor, Chief Executive Officer, Spire Global: I think a lot of the space services pipeline is really focused on what we’re able to do on the government side. That’s going to be government. That’s also going to be, you know, I would say commercial companies that ultimately are serving the government market, right? ’Cause that’s where all the budgets are. What everyone cares about is the ability to rapidly deploy things and rapidly deploy new things as we go forward and the geopolitical situation continues to change. That’s exactly where Spire shines and why it’s important that we have that manufacturing capacity already deployed. We already know how to build those satellites at scale.

I’m pretty excited about the space services pipeline there as well and what the team has done as work over the past year in getting us ready for scaling.

Jeff Van Rhee, Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group: Yeah. Great. I’ll add maybe one last, if I could, out and get down to a more manageable baseline.

Alison Engel, Chief Financial Officer, Spire Global: I think it’s kind of probably back half of the year should decline more significantly than the first half of the year, Jeff. That’s probably the most I can say about that.

Jeff Van Rhee, Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group: Okay. I’ll leave it there. Thanks so much.

Alison Engel, Chief Financial Officer, Spire Global: Thank you.

Theresa Condor, Chief Executive Officer, Spire Global: Thanks, Jeff.

Conference Call Moderator: Thank you. Next question today is coming from Austin Moeller from Canaccord Genuity.

Austin Moeller, Analyst, Canaccord Genuity: Hi. Good afternoon, Theresa and Ali. My first question on the $8 billion NOAA ProTech IDIQ, what modalities of data are being sought? I think there’s eight mentioned. How are the funds from that $8 billion dispersed between the different modalities like microwave, reflectometry, occultation, sea height, ice, et cetera?

Theresa Condor, Chief Executive Officer, Spire Global: Yeah. Yeah. It’s, it’s actually 7 data types. I think I’ve misspoken in a few places and said 8 right when it, when it first came out. It’s 7, 4 of which we are able to do. The, the IDIQ is being responded to right now by industry, right? It’s going to be something where multiple companies are, you know, are tied into it, and then NOAA will issue task orders over the next, I think it’s 5 years related to that IDIQ. You know, multiple companies are going to get orders under that. NOAA likes to have, you know, at least 2 parties getting data orders in all the different types that they do. You can’t really give a number, and it’s not really a zero-sum game around that IDIQ.

I mean, I think $8 billion is a huge number and just gives you a sense of how serious NOAA is about this. What I can tell you is that NOAA is very focused on radio occultation and microwave being the two most important ones that they wanna get going from a procurement perspective. They continue to talk to us about the reflectometry and the ocean surface winds as also the next one that they have as a priority. You know, of course, this will continue to evolve over the years, but I think gives you a good indication of, you know, some of their top priorities or areas where we, you know, we have a very strong offering to give.

Austin Moeller, Analyst, Canaccord Genuity: Okay. Are you able to give an update on where we’re at on EURIALO satellite production and I guess what the European Space Agency and the European Union’s current thinking is now that the ministerial budget is in place?

Theresa Condor, Chief Executive Officer, Spire Global: Yeah. The team has been working and building stuff on those satellites, and they start doing integration in the Munich facility, I think it’s later this month, in fact. I mean, their work is happening on that and ongoing. The EURIALO program was given additional budget coming out of the ministerial, you know, how this continues to evolve is an ongoing discussion between all the various parties. European Space Agency is involved. The DLR, the German Space Agency is involved, right? All of our different consortium partners are involved and of course, you know, continued interest and priority through the European Union. It’s an ongoing process, I would say.

Austin Moeller, Analyst, Canaccord Genuity: Sounds very exciting. I’ll pass it back there. Thank you.

Theresa Condor, Chief Executive Officer, Spire Global: Thanks, Austin.

Conference Call Moderator: Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Chris Quilty from Quilty Space. Your line is now live.

Chris Quilty, Analyst, Quilty Space: Thanks, Theresa. Just wanted to follow up on the NOAA opportunities and exciting pipeline there. How should we think about that in terms of, you know, capital contribution? In other words, you know, as you branch out into different sensors, does that require, you know, different classes of satellites or, you know, different orbital inclinations? You know, are there any of these where, you know, there might be a large contribution? With the contracting, are you seeing opportunities for government NRE?

Theresa Condor, Chief Executive Officer, Spire Global: In terms of capacity, we have a lot of capacity on orbit, and I would say enough capacity on orbit for radio occultation for what we would do with reflectometry. Of course, we just mentioned already the first satellite even has relevant capacity from a microwave perspective. As we would go forward, more microwave sounding satellites is where this would become relevant as part of our ongoing, you know, replenishment and deployment across the constellation. The HyMS satellite, you may be aware, is already fitting within the normal form factor that we do. You may also recall that the development of that HyMS payload and satellite was actually something that was supported through a customer contract in the first place.

That’s actually a great example of some government-funded NRE that turns into then, capacity and capability that we can then deploy and sell as a data service. I think it’s a fantastic example of that.

Chris Quilty, Analyst, Quilty Space: Gotcha. I guess my question was, you know, as you add capabilities, you know, whether it’s, you know, different phenomenologies on the weather side or RFGL and, you know, do you get to the point where you have to build individual fleets of satellites, or do you think the form factor you’re working from, you still have bandwidth to be able to add multiple technologies onto the same platform?

Theresa Condor, Chief Executive Officer, Spire Global: Yeah. I mean, our platform already supports the TEC, the RO, the R, now the microwave sounding. I don’t want this to be something where we’re going and building brand-new big things, spending tons of NRE that is outside of our wheelhouse. I think we have a great technology platform base that we’ve shown we can deploy in a cost-effective way, and we have tons of opportunity with NOAA, you know, and more broadly from that to be able to use the platform that we have. Of course, we continue to deploy new technology. We talked about, you know, the anomaly detection in the comments that we shared earlier. We continue to do R&D on that.

This is like scalable business rather than trying to do NRE all over the place.

Chris Quilty, Analyst, Quilty Space: Great. Speaking of new technologies, congrats on the mini crosslinks. Is that a product that you expect to both proliferate, you know, across your constellation as a standard, and is it something that you would sell on a merchant basis?

Theresa Condor, Chief Executive Officer, Spire Global: It’s definitely something that we look at as enabling technology that just makes our constellation and our platform better. You know, I suppose that’s an open question whether it’s something that we would also make available more broadly in the industry. You know, right now I’m focused on making sure we take it from the final demonstration R&D phases into something that is deployed across our network.

Chris Quilty, Analyst, Quilty Space: All right. Great. Good luck with that.

Theresa Condor, Chief Executive Officer, Spire Global: Thank you.

Conference Call Moderator: Thank you. We’ve reached the end of our question and answer session. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today’s teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.