Sylvamo Q1 2026 Earnings Call - Operational Reliability Issues and Tariff Strategy Shift Drive Transition Year
Summary
Sylvamo reported a difficult first quarter in 2026, with adjusted EBITDA falling to $29 million from $125 million in the prior quarter. The decline was driven by $9 million in operational reliability issues across its mills in Europe and Brazil, unfavorable volume and mix, and rising input costs. The company is navigating a transition year marked by the termination of the Riverdale supply agreement and a major outage at its Eastover mill, which will impact free cash flow in the short term. Management emphasized that 2026 is a year of two halves, with costs and transition pressures concentrated in the first half, while improved pricing and margin recovery are expected to drive performance in the second half.
On the strategic front, Sylvamo is executing a significant lean transformation to improve operational efficiency and cost leadership, starting in Latin America and rolling out globally. The company also adjusted its import strategy in response to shifting U.S. tariffs, redirecting product from Brazil to the U.S. market and reducing reliance on European imports. Management reaffirmed its long-term goal of generating over $300 million in annual free cash flow within three to five years, supported by the Eastover mill investments and margin normalization, particularly in Europe. Despite near-term headwinds, Sylvamo maintains a strong balance sheet and a conservative capital allocation approach, deferring share buybacks to preserve liquidity through the transition.
Key Takeaways
- Adjusted EBITDA fell to $29 million in Q1 2026, down from $125 million in Q4 2025, driven by $9 million in operational reliability issues and unfavorable volume and mix.
- Operational reliability problems across mills in Europe and Brazil caused $9 million in additional manufacturing costs, with fixes expected throughout the year, including a major repair at Nymölla in Q4.
- Sylvamo implemented price increases across all regions: 5-8% in North America, 5-7% in Latin America, and 4-8% in Europe, with most realization expected in Q2 and Q3.
- The company adjusted its import strategy in response to U.S. tariffs, shifting product from Brazil to the U.S. and reducing European imports, improving its full-year footprint transition impact by $20 million to a $65 million negative impact.
- Input and transportation costs are expected to rise by $15 million in Q2 due to energy, chemicals, and freight pressures linked to geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East conflict.
- Sylvamo is launching a company-wide lean transformation to drive operational excellence, cost leadership, and customer centricity, starting in Latin America and rolling out to North America and Europe over three years.
- The company is executing significant investments at its Eastover mill, including a paper machine optimization and new sheeter, with the bulk of work scheduled for a 45-day outage in Q4 2026.
- Management reaffirmed its long-term goal of generating over $300 million in annual free cash flow and achieving a 15% return on invested capital within three to five years, supported by Eastover investments and margin normalization.
- Sylvamo refinanced its 2027 debt, extending maturities to 2032 and its receivables facility to 2029, maintaining financial flexibility to navigate the transition year.
- The company is taking a conservative approach to capital allocation in 2026, deferring share buybacks to preserve liquidity and maintain a strong balance sheet amid operational and geopolitical uncertainties.
Full Transcript
Samantha, Conference Call Operator: Good morning. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Sylvamo’s 1st quarter 2026 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After today’s prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Hans Bjorkman, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, the floor is yours.
Hans Bjorkman, Vice President, Investor Relations, Sylvamo Corporation: Thanks, Samantha. Good morning, thank you for joining our first quarter 2026 earnings call. Our speakers this morning are John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, and Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Slides 2 and 3 contain important information, including certain legal disclaimers. For example, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. We will also present certain non-U.S. GAAP financial information. Reconciliations of those figures to U.S. GAAP financial measures are available in the appendix. Our website also contains copies of the earnings release as well as today’s presentation. With that, I’d like to turn the call over to John.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Thank you, Hans, and good morning, everyone. I’m glad that you’re joining our call. I’m on slide 4. Today, I’d like to begin with a few important macro developments that have occurred since our 4th quarter call in February, which have led us to change our operating strategy to achieve our plans this year. The U.S. Supreme Court invalidated the IEEPA tariffs, and the U.S. government responded to this by placing 10% tariffs on all trading partners. Europe had previously been at 15%, while Brazil was at 50%. This change benefits Sylvamo, and late in the 1st quarter, we began to bring product into the U.S. from our Brazilian operations while ramping down imports from our European operations. The Middle East conflict has resulted in higher energy, logistics, and input costs.
Across our regions, we are looking to reduce costs and taking commercial actions to help offset these impacts. Let’s move to slide 5. Our first quarter highlights include implementing the previously communicated uncoated freesheet price increases to our customers across all our regions. We had a difficult first quarter operationally. Reliability issues, particularly in Europe and Brazil, negatively impacted us by almost $9 million relative to the fourth quarter, and we expect some additional costs in the second quarter. The root cause of these issues have been identified and fixed or will be corrected, and the annual outages will be taking this quarter. The one exception is at our Nymölla mill, where an issue with a debarking drum will not be corrected until the fourth quarter.
We took an important step in achieving our vision by launching our lean transformation journey in our Latin American business, along with our Mogi Guaçu mill. I was in Brazil last week and was very encouraged by the energy and commitment the teams have in learning and executing the lean transformation. Lastly, yesterday, we completed the refinancing of our 2027 debt to extend our maturity profile, which sustains flexibility and maintains our strong financial position. Let’s move to the next slide. Slide 6 shows our first quarter key financial metrics.
As a reminder from our last call, 2026 is a transition year as we work through some short-term capacity constraints due to the termination of the Riverdale supply agreement at the end of April and the extended outage at Eastover later this year as we execute our strategic investments there. Our first quarter results came in as expected, except for the operational issues I mentioned. We built inventory which resulted in lower sales volume. We also incurred the incremental cost due to sourcing and converting. We earned an adjusted EBITDA of $29 million with a margin of 4%. Adjusted operating earnings were negative $0.53 per share. As anticipated, free cash flow was impacted by lower earnings, the unfavorable impacts of our inventory build, and the timing of payments.
Keep in mind that our free cash flow is heavily weighted to the second half of the year. In the last few years, we generated the vast majority of our free cash flow in the second half, and we expect to do so again this year. Now I’ll turn it over to Don to review our performance in more detail.
Hans Bjorkman, Vice President, Investor Relations, Sylvamo Corporation: Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Slide 7 contains our first quarter earnings bridge versus the fourth quarter. As John mentioned, the quarter played out largely as we expected, with the exception of operations and other costs, which I’ll cover shortly. In the first quarter, we earned $29 million of adjusted EBITDA compared to $125 million in the prior quarter. Price and mix were unfavorable by $13 million. Overall mix was $17 million unfavorable, which more than offset the price improvements we saw in the quarter. About half of the mix was due to seasonably weaker mix in Latin America, which is normal for Q1, and the other half was driven by unfavorable North American customer and sourcing mix.
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: On the favorable side, paper prices improved in North America and Latin America as Q1 increases were implemented. Paper prices in Europe bottomed out in the quarter and previously communicated price increases are expected to realize in Q2. Volume decreased by $36 million due to normal Latin American seasonality and the anticipated inventory build in North America as we prepare for the end of the Riverdale Mill supply agreement and the extended Eastover Mill outage in the fourth quarter. Operations and other costs were unfavorable by $29 million, with about half due to non-repeat of favorable fourth quarter items from year-end LIFO accounting in North America and green energy in Europe. The other half was related to $9 million in manufacturing cost across our regions that John described earlier, as well as $3 million in FX. Planned maintenance outage costs were flat.
Input and transportation costs were unfavorable by $18 million, primarily due to energy in North America, highly impacted by a one-time charge of $10 million from International Paper’s Riverdale Mill due to the exceptionally high natural gas cost from the winter storm. Let’s move to slide 8. European industry supply and demand remains challenging. Pulp prices improved throughout the first quarter, and we are realizing the previously communicated paper price increases in April. We have communicated a second paper price increase effective in May and expect the realization to occur through the second and third quarters. In Latin America, we move from the seasonally strongest demand in the fourth quarter to the seasonally weakest first quarter, but now expect demand to increase each quarter throughout the year. This should positively impact our volume and geographic mix as the year progresses.
We are realizing the previously communicated paper price increases to our customers in Brazil and to our export customers across other Latin American countries, as well as the Middle East and Africa region, and should continue to see additional realization throughout the second quarter. In North America, industry supply and demand dynamics have improved as 7% of annual uncoated freesheet industry supply was removed with the Riverdale Mill conversion. After peaking in June of last year, imports into North America have declined significantly throughout the second half of last year and into the first quarter. We also began realizing the previously communicated paper price increases to our customers and expect to see additional realization through the second quarter. We expect the Middle East conflict to continue pressuring costs across our regions as we go through the year.
We are already seeing increases in energy, chemicals, diesel, and ocean freight in the second quarter. Let’s move to slide 9. As John mentioned earlier, the changes in U.S. tariffs had led us to bring in product from our Brazil operations while ramping down imports from our Europe operations. Last quarter, we provided you with an estimate of the adjusted EBITDA impacts of the North American footprint transition, which we indicated was about $85 million negative for the full year. Assuming that tariffs remain at the current levels, we now estimate total full year impact to be around $65 million negative, which is $20 million improvement from our prior estimate and will be realized mostly in the second half. This improvement is the result of the mix improvement by redirecting our Brazil imports from the Middle East and Africa to the U.S.
We will stay close to the situation and be prepared to go back to our prior plans should the tariffs increase in the second half. Let’s move to slide 10. Our capital allocation philosophy remains unchanged. We will deploy every dollar with the goal of improving. Let me go back. Excuse me. We’re on slide 10. This slide is to remind everyone of our planned maintenance outage schedule for the full year by region and by quarter. We will have an increase of $20 million in the second quarter versus the first quarter as we have more outages in Latin America. 2026 is also different than past few years, where we have more than 80% of the total cost in the first half. This year, we have more than 50% of the total cost in the fourth quarter as we complete the investments in Eastover.
Now, let’s move to slide 11. Our capital allocation philosophy remains unchanged. We will deploy every dollar with the goal of improving our competitive position and delivering the best possible shareholder returns over time. We plan to maintain a strong financial position, reinvest in our business, and return cash to shareholders. The refinancing of our long-term debt allows us to navigate this uncertain environment without changing our thoughtful long-term approach to capital allocation. With a strong financial position, we can navigate the geopolitical and economic challenges and focus on improving customer experience, continue reinvesting in low risk, high return projects, as well as execute through the end of the Riverdale supply and the Eastover Mill outage later this year. These investments and improvements will help to grow earnings and cash flow in the future. Let’s move to slide 12. Yesterday, we refinanced 2027 debt to extend our maturity profile.
We refinanced our Term Loan F that matured in 2027 with a new term loan F3 that matures in 2032. We also extended our accounts receivable securitization facility out to 2029. Here on slide 12, you can see the before and the after picture of our maturity profile. This move provides flexibility and allows us to maintain our focus on taking care of our customers and improving our business while we navigate these external challenges. Further details are in the appendix and will be included in our 10-Q that will be filed later today. I’ll now turn the call back to John.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Thank you, Don. I’ll pick back up on slide 13. Last quarter, I shared our vision that Sylvamo will be legendary. Legendary for the way we relentlessly pursue and achieve world-class outputs in all that we do. Consistently performing at world-class levels will create substantial lasting value for our employees, customers, and shareowners, and will enable us to be the employer, supplier, and investment of choice. Let’s move to slide 14. As we strive to achieve world-class standards in the areas that define our success, we are establishing an employee-driven continuous improvement culture by transforming the company to a lean-driven mindset. By incorporating a lean mindset and best practices into our everyday efforts across all functions, we expect significant improvement in the following areas. Customer centricity.
Lean transformation will help to enable a new standard of customer experience and loyalty, where we strive to be truly outstanding. This is critical to our strategies. Operational excellence Lean transformation will also help to enable best-in-class levels of efficiency, reliability, and performance in our mills and supply chains, ensuring that our operations consistently deliver to the highest standards. Cost leadership, the impact that Lean transformation will have on our customer centricity and operational excellence to combine to enable us to attain industry-leading cost effectiveness through an employee-driven continuous improvement culture, strengthening our competitive position and ensuring sustainable results. Let’s go to slide 15. Lean is a long-term, company-wide strategic transformation, not a short-term change program. Over the next 3 years, our objective is to embed continuous improvement into how we run the business. Performance improvement becomes systematic and self-sustaining.
Our lean transformation is focused on maximizing customer value by eliminating waste, improving performance, and engaging every employee, starting with a structured hands-on rollout supported by expert partners. We kicked off our efforts in our Latin American business and have value stream mapping underway at our Mogi Guaçu mill to identify waste and unlock cost savings across end-to-end processes. We will also be conducting Kaizen improvement events, driving employee engagement, and building a culture of continuous improvement from the ground up. Later this month, we’ll kick off our lean efforts in our North America business and across our corporate functions at our world headquarters. We’ll then roll out lean at our Ticonderoga mill later in the second quarter. We’ll continue expanding across all regions, businesses, and locations, targeting efficiency improvements and margin gains.
Let’s go to slide 16, where I’ll provide an update on our investments at our Eastover Mill. Our high-return strategic investments at our Eastover Mill are on track and making solid progress. The paper machine optimization project will add 60,000 tons of uncoated freesheet, reduce costs, and improve our mix and efficiency. This project is on schedule with the bulk of the work to be completed in the fourth quarter during a 45-day plan maintenance outage. The brand-new state-of-the-art sheeter is also on schedule and will start to be installed in the third quarter and will be ramping up in the fourth quarter. The woodyard modernization project is on track. The hardwood line is operating as of May 1, and we’re already seeing significantly improved chip quality and expect to see better yield going forward.
We plan to start up the softwood operation in the first quarter of 2027. These are high-return projects that will generate incremental earnings and cash flow for the long term. I’ll conclude my remarks on slide 17. As I stated in my CEO letter to shareowners earlier this year, 2025 and 2026 will be low points in our free cash flow generation as we weather the cyclical industry downturns, particularly in Europe, and complete these investments at our Eastover Mill. We are focused on long-term value creation by making disciplined, data-driven decisions that position the company for sustainable success and strengthen Sylvamo for decades to come.
We will generate strong and sustainable results by diligently executing our flagship growth strategy, adhering to our disciplined capital allocation principles, becoming more customer-centric, institutionalizing lean continuous improvement in principles, and digitally transforming our business operations. As industry conditions turn our capital spending normalized, the benefits from our investments begin to materialize with the potential to generate annually greater than $300 million of free cash flow and greater than 15% returns on invested capital. With that, I’ll turn it back over to Hans. Hans?
Hans Bjorkman, Vice President, Investor Relations, Sylvamo Corporation: Thanks, John, and thank you, Don. Okay, Samantha, we’re ready for questions.
Samantha, Conference Call Operator: We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Your first question comes from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America Securities. George, your line is open. Please go ahead.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: Hi. Thanks very much, everybody. Appreciate the detail. I’ll ask a couple of questions and come back into queue, but I do have a bunch to go through. I guess, first of all, John, the company talks about operational excellence, being legendary in terms of service and the like, and I recognize you’re still early in that journey. That said, what was going on with operations reliability in that $9 million number that you called out, particularly in Latam? As I recall, and correct me if I’m wrong, I thought Latam was expected to be better operationally, or at least not as much of an issue as Europe in this quarter. That’s question number 1. Question number 2, you called out or pointed to some mixed factors in North America in the first quarter. What was behind that?
Related to price, not expecting you to talk about future price increases, forward-looking or whatever, but for the pricing that is in the markets right now in the publications, if we hold that, what price benefit do you get in 2Q versus 1Q sequentially or for the year? Thank you.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Yeah. George, thank you. Thank you for joining and calling your questions. I anticipated the questions on the reliability issues. Yes, I mean, I guess key to our performance if we’re gonna delight the customer, increase customer loyalty, reliability and operational efficiencies is critical that. You know, that’s why we’re implementing the lean process, but also we are strengthening and have been focusing on mill reliability process and systems. You know, the biggest focus we’ve got there is ensuring that we’re investing to maintain the equipment and also we’re putting in the right processes and also training and development of our workforce. Those are all critical aspects to being, you know, world-class in that performance, and we’re clearly not there. I mean, this is what this indicates.
The issues that we’ve had is we’ve got work to do, around our reliability. You know, like, as it pertains to the particular items we had, both Mogi and Luiz Antônio had issues in the power plant and also in the digesters that needed to be fixed actually in the annual outage. Mogi is right now down, going through its annual outage. The issues that we had in the first quarter, we actually continued to see that in the first month of this quarter, and now we’re planning on fixing that. Luiz Antônio’s outage is not until June, so we are continuing to struggle some there with, you know, with that mill and its performance. That’s driving our increased operating costs, use of chemicals and whatnot. That’s impacting us.
You know, if you look at Europe, the biggest issue we had was Saillat. There was a turbine generator that’s operated by a third party that tripped. You know, the issues we had in Europe also occurred in area when it was a cold winter and probably the worst timing we could have. This issue knocked the Saillat mill offline for a couple of days until we could get back up and running. Then Nymölla, we also had boiler issues at the beginning of the year. Then as I mentioned, I think in the prepared remarks that we have two debarking drums in Nymölla, but one of the debarking drums due to mechanical failure is offline.
It won’t be, we won’t be able to fix that until the fourth quarter this year. Your second question?
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: I guess just before we go there.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Oh, go ahead.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: so you described what happened. I guess my question would be following up why. Why did the issues come up at Mogi and Luiz Antônio? Why didn’t you necessarily, not you, but your, the team, sort of determine what was happening and prevent it from occurring? The same thing in Nymölla, especially with the boiler and the debarking.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: The terms of the why would be different for each of these, whether it’s, you know, mechanical failure or an operating area. You know, we do a detailed root cause failure analysis on any of these significant events, and those have been done here. We put a lot of effort into ensuring that we correct and also communicate what we’ve learned across those failures. In all those cases, you know, except for the one in Saillat, because that was out of our control, that was a third-party operator area. Every one points to, you know, an area where we’ve got to either improve our reliability processes systems, identifying those areas that could that could fail, and making sure that we’re taking corrective actions before that occurs.
Training, and improving the quality of our workforce so that the right operating decisions are made, and that’s all what we’re working on, George.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: Okay. Appreciate that.
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: John, I can take this.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: Pricing and mix. Thanks, John.
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Yeah, George.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: Thanks, Don.
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: This is Don. I’ll take that mix question. George, Q1, a couple of big things in mix in Q1. In Latin America, it’s seasonally weaker for us. What’s happened typically is there’s less domestic Brazil volume, which is our most profitable, and more export as a percentage of the mix. We expect that. It’s normal for the quarter. In Brazil, what typically happens is it gets stronger as the year goes on, all the way through the fourth quarter. In North America, it’s a little different situation. As we prepare for the Riverdale and Eastover, you know, the Eastover outage later in the year and the Riverdale supply agreement going away, we are, you know, we’re using third-party sheeting. We’re buying some volume from third parties, buying paper.
We’re doing this so that we have the inventory to serve our customers and really preserve our customers, as we ramp up Eastover later in the year. It’s a cost that shows up in mix because the margins on that, either externally sourced or converted paper, is a bit lower. Those are the two main reasons. We cited this as the North American piece as a one-time in our February call that we wouldn’t expect to have next year.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: Okay
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: ramp up Eastover and the sheeting operations in Sumter.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: Okay.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: And to-
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: impact?
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Okay, yeah. George, make sure I understand, your third question was around the pricing, the pricing realization.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: Yeah.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Yeah.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: hold at where the publications are right now, what would it mean for benefit, if any, price-wise, 2Q versus 1Q or rest of year versus 1Q? However you want to discuss it.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Okay.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: Thank you.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Sure, George. You know, we announced increase across all the regions. I think it’s best if we just go around the regions and talk about what we saw and what we’re in the process of realizing from what we’ve announced to our customers. In North America, we communicated a price increase of 5%-8% range to our customers. We’re realizing that increase within that range. We start to see that in March, and it’s going to go through the bulk of it. We’ll see that in the second quarter coming through. In Brazil, we announced a 5% increase on cut-size for January, and we realized about two-thirds of that in the first quarter.
In the other LatAm markets, we communicated about a 7% increase for Q1. We realized about one-third of that in the first quarter, and that’s about all we’re gonna get from that one. We did announce a second increase of 7% to customers for the second quarter. We’ll start to realize that in May. In Middle East and Africa, we export this from both, mostly from Brazil, but also some from our European operations. We implemented a 4% increase in the first quarter. We realized that in the first quarter. We’re implementing a second increase for the second quarter, which we should start realizing in May. In Europe, we communicated a 4% increase to our customers in the first quarter.
In Europe, we actually saw prices go down in the first part, January, and then we started to see, realize this 4% increase. We’ll get about half of it through April. That’s probably about all we’re gonna get from that first increase. However, we communicated a second increase of 8%, effective in May, and we expect to start realizing that in the second quarter.
Samantha, Conference Call Operator: Your next-
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: Okay. You’d rather not give us a dollar number for 2Q versus 1Q at this juncture, given all of that?
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: That’s right. Yep.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: Okay. Thank you.
Samantha, Conference Call Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Matthew McKellar with RBC Capital Markets. Matthew, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Matthew McKellar, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. A couple just on cost. Could you speak to the input and transportation cost pressures you’re seeing? Compared to where you were at the start of the year, what does that incremental headwind look like on an unmitigated basis, and what amounts do you expect to be able to mitigate in some way? Just circling back on Nymölla debarker, what’s the ongoing cost impact there? You can address that in Q4. Is that just a cost issue, or are there constraints on production as well? Thank you.
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Hey, thank you, Matt. This is Don. I’ll take those questions. Relative to costs and input and transportation, the cost in Q1 was relatively small, but as we look forward, and for Q2 in particular, we think it’ll be about $15 million. That’s across things like chemicals, energy and distribution. It’s split fairly evenly across our region. Roughly $5 million per region. For Nymölla, this debarking drum issue occurred in March. We’re incurring about $1 million-$2 million a quarter of additional cost. The plan is to do the repair in September. The fourth quarter we should see improved costs. Really what we’re doing is we have no impact to production as we’re sourcing external chips, and that’s the incremental cost.
Matthew McKellar, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Okay. Thanks. Maybe this is a follow-up there. The $15 million you called out, is that essentially the sequential impact that we should expect quarter-on-quarter? Would you describe, I guess, the run rate cost impact any differently, based on current costs? Thank you.
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: It would be roughly that amount sequentially in Q2, yes.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Matt, these are costs that are due to the, you know, the Iran war situation, obviously. How that plays out, you know, going forward, it’s, you know, anybody’s guess. That’s what we see, at least essentially for the second quarter.
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Yeah. Matt, we had less than $2 million, $1 million to $2 million of what we would call war-related inflation in Q1. It’s $15 million versus $1 million, call it. Roughly incremental. $14 million.
Matthew McKellar, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Okay. Okay, fair enough. One more from me, and I’ll jump back in the queue. Pretty high-level question. You’ve talked about, you know, having the potential to generate $300 million of annual free cash flow. When we think about your investments and expansion at Eastover, investment in LatAm fiber supply, lean transformation, and now prices inflecting in all regions, particularly maybe in North America, where conditions seem quite tight, what else still needs to change in the markets or at Sylvamo specifically to drive you to that $300 million level in 2027, at least on a run rate basis, particularly as we strip out some of the remaining $15 million or so of Eastover spend? I think you said, trickles into next year and maybe any ramp-up of your investments as well. Thanks.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Matthew, I think you captured most of the big items. Certainly the Eastover investments and what we’re doing there. The better mix in Latin America from, you know, shifting exports from via to U.S. Improving mid-cycle margins, particularly in Europe, but also down in Brazil and the O- in the OLA markets, the other LatAm markets, improvement there. Lower cost and improved productivity, which we’re gonna be driving through the lean transformations, the work that we’re doing increasing reliability, and workforce planning and training. Lower wood costs, particularly in Europe, and that’s really driven by Nymölla because we’re seeing those decreases right now, coming through.
We’ve talked about it, but we’ll provide probably more detail around what we’re doing with digital transformation as it pertains really to our mill system as well as on the commercial area. We haven’t really explained a lot of that, but we intend to do that, you know, future earnings calls. Capital spending will normalize. You know, this is after the investment at Eastover, you know, we’ll see capital spending come back to normal level.
Matthew McKellar, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Okay. I mean, is it fair to say it’s kind of continued execution of some of the programs within your control and then markets getting a little better in other LatAm and European kind of regions?
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: That’s right. Yes, I think that’s correct.
Matthew McKellar, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Okay. Thanks. I’ll turn it back. I’ll get in the queue. Thank you.
Samantha, Conference Call Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Harriman with Sidoti. Daniel, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Daniel Harriman, Analyst, Sidoti: Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to follow up on Matt’s last question. I think the $300 million cash flow target for 2027 came out prior to these price increases across all three of your regions. Just wanted to get a sense from you of where you see the stock’s valuation right now and other uses of that cash. I know there hasn’t been any share repurchases in the past two quarters. Not sure if that has to do with a leverage ratio you wanna get to prior to getting back into the market. Also, around tariff sensitivity. Based on the 10% tariff that’s in place through July 2024, just curious how you’re thinking about the second half if that tariff structure changes either way or gets worse.
Would you go back to importing from Europe, or are you exploring other opportunities as well? Thanks a lot.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Daniel, look, let me talk about the your the 300. If you remember even from my CEO letter and we based on that was expectations that we expected that the markets and margins, particularly in Europe, would normalize. It wasn’t sustainable with where the margins are in Europe and also in the other LatAm markets. That was built into some of that, you know, when we think about the 300 achieving the $300 million of cash flow.
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: I would add to that, Daniel, that a large portion of the path to this $300 is Eastover. We pointed out in our previous earnings call in February the one-times that we’re experiencing. We’ll also see the benefits of additional volume from Eastover, which is our lowest cost mill. A large portion of the $300 will be Eastover operating after the speed up in the new sheeter. That’s a significant portion of the $300. Relative to, we never said 2027. I think this $300 is a goal for us in the future, as John stated in his CEO letter.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Yeah, within 3-5 years.
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Within 3 to 5 years, yeah. Relative to the stock, you know, where we see the stock value and, you know, if I step back and think about our cash situation for the year and our capital allocation strategy philosophy. You know, we look at 2026, we’ve got big commitments both in Eastover. You know, prior year we returned last year 350% of our free cash flow to share owners. We’re managing cash levels, you know, as we focus on executing the Eastover footprint transition. We’re making big strategic investments at Eastover. We wanna make sure we have a strong balance sheet through 2026.
I think our philosophy around share buybacks is the same, and it’s that if we believe it’s our intrinsic value, the share is trading less than our intrinsic value, then we will do buybacks. I think 2026, we’re being prudent to manage through a very uncertain year with tariff changes, with economic changes and the Middle East conflict impacts as well. I think we gotta navigate 2026.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Daniel, let’s be clear then. Yeah, we believe that our share price right now doesn’t reflect the intrinsic value of the company. We believe it’s undervalued. We’re taking a very conservative approach to cash, you know, just because of the issues. You know, not the issues, but the fact that, you know, we’re in this transition period, so there’s big use of cash in the first half of this year. We’ve got a war and uncertainty, so we’re taking a conservative approach with our balance sheet. We’re deferring more to that than we are to, you know, taking opportunities to buy back our shares.
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: I think to your last question, Daniel, you know, today, relative to the tariffs. Today, the paper products from Brazil are subject to a 10% tariff under the Section 122, and it’s consistent with the tariff applied to other countries. As of today, that expires late in July 24th. We expect the administration will apply new tariffs on Brazil before that expiration of the Section 122 tariff. It’s difficult to predict what level the Brazil tariffs will be set. There was a Trump and Lula meeting yesterday, and the preliminary feedback is positive, but it still doesn’t give an indication. I think that the way we’re thinking about this is we have flexibility. At the 10% level, it makes a lot of sense for us, and we’ll continue to do that.
If it goes to a different rate, we’ll have to reconsider what we’re doing for the balance of the year after July.
Daniel Harriman, Analyst, Sidoti: All right. Thanks again, guys. I’ll get back in queue.
Samantha, Conference Call Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Michael Roxland with Truist Securities. Michael, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Nicolo Buccioni, Analyst, Truist Securities: Yeah. Hi, guys. This is Nicolo Buccioni from Michael Roxland. Thanks for taking the questions. Just, first off, you know, on Europe, I think you’ve mentioned in the past that business has been more of a bet on the future. I’m just wondering how do you see the path to improving earnings there, your thoughts on the business, especially as your peers in the area are either contracting or reorganizing given the weaker supply-demand dynamics? When is that slated to be in the kind of lean transformation process?
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Thank you for your question. Can you repeat your second one? I’m not sure, but what was your second question?
Nicolo Buccioni, Analyst, Truist Securities: Yeah. The, you know, when does that fall and the lean transformation process that you’re already doing in Latin America and are gonna start doing in North America into Q?
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Let me address the first question about the Europe question. Yeah, it’s a bet on the future because we believe that, you know, over time, the industry will continue to consolidate and become more hospitable to earning, you know, both cost of capital returns in Europe as it does consolidate as the market declines. That, of course, isn’t right now the case. It’s a market that it’s very fractured and margins are low. What we are focusing on and what we control, and it’s really specific to each of our two of our facilities. In Acaiá, we’ve been focusing on significantly reducing fixed costs and also improving our mix of products.
shifting more out of commodity cut-size into more the value-added roll business, which has higher margins, and also into other type of grades there, and we’re executing that, and that is going actually better than planned in terms of the mix improvement. At our Nymölla mill, it’s about reducing our wood costs. When we purchased that mill, there was an agreement that the wood was gonna be supplied from a joint venture, Södra, and we have moved away from that, taking control of our own sourcing of our own wood. We’ve seen wood costs has come down, and we’re expecting that to continue to move. We’re also increasing the yield and working on, you know, consuming less wood. We’ve also exported in cheaper wood from the local sources.
Putting a lot of efforts into reducing our wood costs there and also improving our operational efficiencies at our Nymölla mill. We believe that these moves with the increasing pricing and margins there will improve the business going forward. I think your second question was around the lean transformation. Where we started, this is, we expect the lean transformation to be a 3-year process, but we expect to get, you know, immediate and significant results in the areas that we start to implement that. You know, we started at the Mogi Guaçu mill here just recently. We’ve already got target improvements of in certain areas that it’s, you know, around almost a 50% improvement in certain areas.
As I shared with you in the presentation, we’re rolling that out here and gonna be in North America at the corporate areas. We’ll be going back to Brazil, and then, you know, next year, early next year, we’ll be in Europe as well as at the Eastover mill. I’m not sure if that answers your question, but on the lean transformation.
Nicolo Buccioni, Analyst, Truist Securities: Yeah, no, that’s helpful. Thank you. I appreciate it. I just had two additional follow-ons. One is on the mix issue in North America in the first quarter, given that’s related to the, kind of the Eastover, 4Q downtime and the Riverdale conversion, should that change quarter to quarter, like Q1 to Q2? I apologize if I missed that earlier. The second one is if you can comment, how your relationship is with your large shareholder.
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Yeah, Nicola, I will take the first question relative to the mix. We do expect that to continue into Q2. What we’re doing is we’re making sure we have the inventory to enable us to serve customers as we get through, as the Riverdale supply agreement goes away. As I said, the Eastover speed up in sheeter installation in Q4. We’re preparing to get through that big outage, which is 45 days at Eastover. We’ll build more inventory in Q2. It’ll look similar.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Then I think your second question was around our largest shareholder. I’m happy to take that. Actually, in the first quarter, I did meet with them. I’ll share with you that they expressed to us they continue to support our strategy and have confidence in the management change. They were very supportive of my CEO letter. They thought we were, you know, spot on in terms of what we’re focusing on. The long-term value creation targets of greater than $300 million of free cash flow and a 15% return on invested capital. Yeah, I would characterize the relationship with Atlas as very positive, and they continue to be very supportive of our strategy. In fact, we continue to meet on almost a quarterly basis.
I expect to meet this quarter, where we continue to get their feedback, guidance and, you know, on the company, and we do appreciate their feedback.
Nicolo Buccioni, Analyst, Truist Securities: Got it. Thank you very much. I’ll turn it over.
Samantha, Conference Call Operator: As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. Our next question comes from George Staphos with Bank of America Securities. George, your line is open. Please go ahead.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: Hey, thanks very much. Hi, guys. A few follow-ons. First of all, Eastover, are you still on track for $50 million? Should we expect that in 2027? How is that going in terms of the value generation from that?
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Yeah. George, thanks for asking the question on Eastover. Yeah, everything is on track as we present. Everything is moving on schedule within the budget that we planned from the capital spending. We’re expecting installation, you know, in the fourth quarter. As we said, the sheeter is actually gonna be landing here shortly, and we’ll start to install that and start to ramp up in the training of the crew and getting that ready to operate by the time the Eastover is ramped up. You know, we do have a ramp-up schedule. The $50 million, we still are 100% behind that number. You won’t see the full 50 in the first year because there will be a ramp-up period.
We’ll see a significant portion of that in 2027.
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: George.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: $30 million, $40 million, you know, would that be significant as you see it, John? Sorry about that, Don.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Yes. Yeah, that’s probably roughly right.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: That’s fine. Yeah. Okay.
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Just to add to that, George, the reminder of the one-times go away. You have the ramp-up of the benefits, and then the one-time costs go away. Eastover improvement next year is significant.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: Okay.
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: The one-times that we refer to in here.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: question. Yes. The, that, the 85, which is now 65, if.
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Yes
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: correctly refraining. Okay, great. Reminding. Okay, perfect. Second question. With lean programs, right? My time covering this sector, usually you put in lean programs when things are relatively smooth, right? It’s continuous improvement. At, you know, at Sylvamo right now, I know you’re working on this, but you’ve got a lot of individual fires you’re trying to put out. You’ve got the digester and power issues in South America. You’ve got debarking issues. You’re trying to bring up Eastover. Why are you putting in a lean program now? Wouldn’t it be better to wait-
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Well, that’s a good, you know.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: when everything is established, and then you can do continuous improvement on a baseline?
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: George, I think the way that we think about it is that, first of all, we’re gonna have reliability issues. We wanna minimize that as much as we can. We believe that right now, where we are with our operations and our facilities, we certainly can fully implement the lean management system going forward. We have a very engaged, highly engaged crew and team. We believe there’s a lot more opportunity to really tap into the talent of those teams. That’s what lean does because it’s an employee-driven continuous improvement. When I talk about being legendary in pursuing world-class excellence, we need every employee to be able to help us do that.
That’s why we’re implementing the lean is it’s the best mechanism, we think, from a cultural perspective, to really tap into the talents. We do have a very talented team. I think that’s one of our strengths.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: Yeah.
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Um-
Yeah, John, no doubt about that.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: We would think it’s a myth, George.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: So-
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: would be a myth for us not to tap into it now, to wait, and, you know, and generally, we believe that, you know, we’re not in a crisis mode, right? It’s, We have the issues that hit us really hard in the first quarter, but it’s not a systemic issue that we would wanna wait to implement our lean journey.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: Okay. Appreciate that. What incremental benefit should we get out of lean? You’ve had other cost reduction programs. What do you get next year incremental from lean to the bottom line at Sylvamo, and what do you think you get on an ongoing basis?
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Well, we think that we could achieve probably double the improvement rate that we have been achieving, but that’s when we fully implement it, we’re looking at 3 to 5 years. As we ramp it up, we think we can double the improvement rate. Which, you know, George, we need to do. I mean, what we’ve been faced with is, it’s not just us, but across the industry and across the industrial sectors.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: Yep
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Is increased rates of inflation and cost that’s making, you know, the previous rates of improvements is not at the levels that it needs to be to sustain margins.
George Staphos, Analyst, Bank of America Securities: John, I appreciate that, and we applaud that you’re taking care of the house, no matter the environment. I was just trying to get a sense of, you know, what’s behind the program, what benefit? I know you said you’re gonna get 2x the improvement, but what does that mean in terms of dollars? My last question on this round, I appreciate your taking all these questions. Does it get to a point when Europe just becomes, I don’t know how to say it, but too much of a drag relative to the performance you’re seeing elsewhere in your operations, and you need to think even more significantly about its place in the portfolio. How much benefit from lean dollar-wise, and when does Europe become too big of a drag?
Thank you, guys. Good luck in the quarter.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: George, from a dollar-wise to your question on the lean, you know, we really haven’t really talked about and publicly disclosed what our improvement levels are from a year-over-year and what our targets are. I’m hesitant to do that going forward. In terms of Europe, you know, I think you know, Yeah, we always, and we have to, we continuously evaluate our whole portfolio as part of our capital allocation strategy and philosophy. When we look at it is I think I talked about in the last call and also we’re looking at all options. We have to. We’re looking at can we operate differently? How fast can we accelerate the improvements? Are there things that we can do differently?
you know, I think the question you raise is, you know, something we will always, you know, we gotta continue to do, and that’s, you know, look at the portfolio and does it make sense and is it the right to be in Europe? ultimately, you know, we wanna drive value for our shareholders. I can tell you right now as we sit today, we believe that we have the right strategy that we’re pursuing in Europe, and we think we’ve got the right leadership team. We’re committed to our customers there, which we have very strong customers and relationships with. we, you know, our strategy right now is to continue to improve the performance of that business.
Samantha, Conference Call Operator: Your next question.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Thank you.
Samantha, Conference Call Operator: comes from the line of Matthew McKellar with RBC Capital Markets. Matthew, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Matthew McKellar, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Hi. Thanks. Just one follow-up, please. With how tariffs have evolved and assuming, I guess, they don’t change in magnitude from here, so whatever happens after Section 122 looks something like the 10% level, would you expect to continue to supply some amount of Latin American paper in the North American market even after the Eastover expansion ramps up? Maybe just relatedly, what’s your sense of how imports into the U.S. might be evolving more broadly just at an industry level with tariffs resetting lower? Thank you.
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Matthew, I’ll take the first part of your question relative to the Brazil imports. If the tariffs are in the right range for us, and 10% is, it works, we’ll continue to import from Brazil into North America. It’s part of the supply plan even after the Eastover speed up. It’ll be part of the plan. It makes more sense for us if you think about low margins of Brazil exporting into Middle East and Africa versus bringing it to North America. We have a pretty wide range on what makes sense from a tariff standpoint. We’ll continue to import.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Matthew, Did you ask, what is the import situation in North America, what’s the trend? Was that your second question?
Matthew McKellar, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Yes. That’s right.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Okay.
Matthew McKellar, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Just at an industry level and post, the IEEPA tariffs coming off. Thanks.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Okay. Yeah, we did see imports increase in the beginning part of the year, I think up to around 16% of demand, but we’ve seen a steady decrease of imports coming into North America, and they’re, you know, it’s roughly dropped down to the lower end of what’s, you know, been typical, the lower end of the range, around 10% of total demand. Some of that is driven because of the tariffs. The other is, you know, some of it is impacted by the Iran war. It’s increasing freight costs, but also, you know, there was a mill that exported to the U.S. from that area that’s not operating as a result of the war.
Matthew McKellar, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Okay. Even over the past month or so, there doesn’t seem to be any kind of inflection in import activity that you’re aware of, despite, I guess, those tariffs moving lower, and you’d kind of attribute that to the war in Iran and maybe transportation costs downstream of that?
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: That’s right. That’s right. We’ve actually seen imports continue to decrease, and we expect that to happen. There’s a mill also in Finland that was exporting not a lot of volume, I think 30,000 tons annually to the U.S., and that mill has been indefinitely idled as of November last year. There’s some little bit things like that that also have decreased the imports.
Matthew McKellar, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Okay. Thanks very much. I’ll throw it back.
Samantha, Conference Call Operator: We have reached the end of our Q&A session. Thank you. I’ll now turn the call back over to Hans Bjorkman for closing comments.
Hans Bjorkman, Vice President, Investor Relations, Sylvamo Corporation: All right. I’ll let John do a quick wrap up here, and then we’ll let you get on to the rest of your day.
John Sims, Chief Executive Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Yeah. Thanks, Hans. Again, thank you for joining the call. You know, as I said, 2025 and 2026 will be low points in our free cash flow generation as 2026 is a transition year for us. It’ll also be a year of two halves. You know, in the first half, we’ll be impacted by the transition costs plus input costs, while the second half should see improved pricing and margins and mix improvements across all our regions. This will be a year where we’re executing our most significant investments in our Eastover Mill that will drive a lot of value in the years to come. We have launched our lean transformation and are focusing on exceeding our customers’ expectations and driving improvement across our operations.
You know, we are focused on long-term value creation that will generate strong and sustainable results by executing our flagship growth strategy and disciplined capital allocations. As I said, you know, as industry conditions turn, our capital spending normalizes and the benefits for our investments begin to materialize, and we believe we have the potential to generate greater than $300 million of free cash flow and greater than 15% return on invested capital. Again, thank you for joining, and I hope everybody has a good day. Bye.
Don Devlin, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Sylvamo Corporation: Thank you.
Samantha, Conference Call Operator: Thank you for participating in Sylvamo’s first quarter 2026 earnings call. You may now disconnect.