Riskified Q4 2025 Earnings Call - First GAAP-profitable quarter, record revenue and a shift to gross profit-led growth

Operator: Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Riskified fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker’s presentation, there’ll be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you’ll need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your speaker today, Chett Mandel, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Chett Mandel, Head of Investor Relations, Riskified: Good morning. Thank you for joining us today. My name is Chett Mandel, Riskified’s Head of Investor Relations. We released our results and are hosting today’s call to discuss Riskified’s financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025. Our earnings materials, including a replay of today’s webcast, will be available on our investor relations website at ir.riskified.com. Participating on today’s call, Eido Gal, Riskified’s Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, and Aglika Dotcheva, Riskified’s Chief Financial Officer. Certain statements made on the call today will be forward-looking statements related to, without limitation, our operating performance, business and financial goals, outlook as to revenues, gross profit margin, Adjusted EBITDA profitability, Adjusted EBITDA margins, and expectations as to positive cash flows, which reflect management’s best judgment based on currently available information and are not guarantees of future performance.

We intend all forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements reflect our expectations as of the date of this call, and except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to revise this information as a result of new developments that may occur after the time of this call. These forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties, and other factors, some of which are beyond our control that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. You should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statement. Please refer to our annual report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31st, 2024, and subsequent reports we file or furnish with the SEC for more information on the specific factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations.

Additionally, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures and key performance indicators on the call. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are available in our earnings release issued earlier today, and also furnished with the SEC on Form 6-K and in the appendix of our investor relations presentation, all of which are posted on our investor relations website. I will now turn the call over to Eido.

Eido Gal, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Riskified: Thanks, Chett. Hello, everyone. We ended the year strong. This momentum positions us for continued success in 2026. Our fourth quarter non-GAAP gross profit of $57.3 million represented strong year-over-year growth of 16%. Our Adjusted EBITDA of $17.7 million translated to a margin of 18%, demonstrating the scale and strength of the business. This quarterly amount alone exceeded our full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $17.2 million in 2024. Our fourth quarter revenues of nearly $100 million were a record since inception and contributed to our first-ever quarter of GAAP profitability. These results are the culmination of consistent high-quality execution across the year. In 2025, both annual dollar retention, or ADR, and net dollar retention, or NDR, improved year-over-year.

ADR reached approximately 100%, up from 96%, and NDR significantly improved to 105% from 96% in 2024. Our go-to-market team had another successful year, with particularly strong results in the fourth quarter of 2025. During the quarter, we won the highest quarterly amount of new business since our IPO, which represented approximately 55% of the total new business won for the year and was driven by high competitive win rates of over 75%. This year, we won and onboarded several leaders across industries and geographies, including Aerolíneas Star Perú, Abound, Adastria, Ace Hardware, Banxa, CASM, David’s Bridal, NetEase, Nintendo, Temu, Tripadvisor, and NexTool. In addition, merchants such as Iberia Airlines, Meta, Fast Retailing, Viva Aerobus, Vivid Seats, and Zappos were all upsold in 2025 after landing on the platform over the past few years.

We believe this demonstrates the power in ROI that our platform delivers to our merchants once onboarded onto the Riskified network. We have processed approximately $750 billion in GMV and have over 1 billion unique customer interactions in our network since inception. I believe that this data moat has created a structural competitive advantage and that we are well-positioned to capture even more of the large opportunity in front of us. We are focusing our efforts on deepening our geographic presence and growing faster in our newer verticals while identifying additional verticals to penetrate for continued market share gains. From a geographic standpoint, our non-U.S. regions collectively grew 22% year-over-year, driving faster, more diversified growth. Notably, APAC and LATAM were key regions of outperformance.

We plan to expand further in these regions by developing localized products and features to boost pipeline generation. We have scaled our presence in the payments and money transfer category, as evidenced by 66% growth in 2024 and 90% growth in 2025. Based on the current pipeline and the annualization of new business won in 2025 in this vertical, I expect another strong year of activity in 2026. As we capture more data and payment types leading to more refined models and bespoke features targeted to this vertical, I believe we are positioned to continue penetrating the significant white space. According to recent industry studies, there was a 27% year-over-year increase in fraud losses related to online transactions. The total losses attributed to fraud are expected to more than double over the next 5 years, well outpacing the expected growth of e-commerce.

In addition, over two-thirds of U.S. companies experienced an increase in AI-related fraud attempts in 2025. We are witnessing escalating complexity of fraud schemes, which now target every touch point across the customer journey from account creation and stored value credentials, all the way through the return, customer service, and dispute portals. Every part of the transaction process is at risk. Fraud risk varies across payment types, including ACH, credit cards, digital wallets, crypto and stable coins, agentic checkout, and other methods. We need to be prepared to support and manage risk across the full payment landscape. We are leveraging the capabilities of our AI ecosystem that has been continuously advanced for over a decade. This increase in fraud has further elevated Riskified’s role, solidifying our positioning as a key partner for our merchants.

I believe that the combination of a more pronounced and complicated fraud landscape, enhanced platform features and functionality, and a deliberate effort to expand the top of our deal funnel has contributed to an increase in our new business lead generation of approximately 50% year-over-year. In line with our expectations at the beginning of the year, I am pleased that we generated nearly $10 million in aggregate annual revenues from Policy Protect, Account Secure, and Dispute Resolve in 2025, and we plan to continue to grow our revenues outside of our core fraud services in 2026. As we have expanded our offering, the benefits of having a robust platform are becoming even more pronounced. First, we saw an approximately 50% increase in the number of merchants who are now using more than one product during the year. This multi-product approach has made us stickier.

Second, each transaction processed across our suite of products strengthens our flywheel by expanding the breadth and depth of our datasets. This integrated dataset compounds across the network, enhancing our identity engine and enabling us to develop dynamic components that can be utilized across the platform. Third, these cross-platform synergies lead to better performance for our merchants. This strong performance with differentiated capabilities allowed us to regularly outperform our competition. Fourth, merchants utilizing more than one product generally leads to higher contribution profit for those merchants. This is part of the reason why in 2026, we are focused on driving gross profit growth versus optimizing primarily for revenue growth. As Sagie will discuss shortly, we expect non-GAAP gross profit growth to accelerate to double digits at the midpoint in 2026, demonstrating the continued leverage in our model. Now on to a very topical theme, artificial intelligence.

Allow me to discuss how we are observing AI impacting the market, and how Riskified’s product platform and internal operations are positioned for success in this environment. There are two main dynamics that we are seeing. First is the increased utilization of agentic commerce through general purpose LLMs, but still primarily only for discovery purposes and not checkout. The second is the rise of merchant native LLMs, which are advanced agents within a merchant’s ecosystem designed to handle the full shopping journey, from answering queries to completing the purchase, closing the loop completely within their ecosystem. Both flows present unique transaction risks that our platform aims to solve. In the first agentic flow, when customers do use general purpose LLMs for checkout, we have seen instances where fraudsters utilize AI to throw agentic traffic off script by generating synthetic IDs to bypass LLM verification.

Our internal estimates indicate that approximately 30%-40% of essential model features are lost when consumers transact through general purpose LLMs, increasing risk and escalating the prevalence of fraud like this. To combat this, we strive to help merchants by providing clear visibility into agentic traffic and emerging fraud MOs that they don’t otherwise have on their own, proactively adjusting models based on low signal environments, segmenting order flows, and rapidly developing features to identify emerging agentic fraud MOs. In the second flow, merchants are building out their AI shopping assistants to offer deep personalization and loyalty programs based on customer preferences. Riskified provides a critical risk intelligence layer that helps make these transactions both smart and secure. This is especially critical when those interactions have financial implications.

An example of this is providing merchant native AI agents with real-time risk signals while they are in the conversation with customers to offer instant refund or exchange decisions based on that individual customer’s risk and eligibility. Because Riskified analyzes the complete purchase history of the end customer across an expansive global network of e-commerce brands, including exact product lists, SKUs, and cross-merchant behaviors, we can provide highly differentiated data that merchants cannot otherwise access on their own. We are able to provide a decision platform for their agents to make important and accurate financial decisions. We are excited about the continuous expansion and enhancement of our agentic commerce offering. Merchants are actively preparing and ready to support agentic commerce across its various forms and flows.

Our ability to not only service the dynamic needs of an evolving market, but also to innovate in real time, is generating an increase in merchant dialogue. I believe that this strategic engagement is a driver for our future business pipeline and growth. Internally, we continue to adopt AI to automate and scale complex business workflows across departments. This is intended to help drive operational efficiency and productivity, lower costs, improve response times, and enhance service delivery. For our engineering teams, AI has become a force multiplier. Our developers have moved from basic coding assistance to agentic systems that span the entire development life cycle, from discovery and requirements assessment to automated root cause analysis for production alerts. By using agentic flows for code review and observability, we are reducing technical debt while increasing release velocity. The impact on productivity is measurable.

Between Q2 and Q4 of 2025, many of our engineers saw more than 2x increase in tickets completed. This enables us to focus on developing new product enhancements and features, and to test, train, and deploy them more efficiently, strengthening our relationships with the hundreds of enterprise merchants in our network. We are seeing similar functional leverage across the other business units. In finance and analytics, we have moved several initiatives into production to automate processes that reduce human error and manual labor. The go-to-market team has found success utilizing LLMs to drive merchant inbounds and high intent queries. We’ve also developed agents that automate time-consuming cost benefit analysis of merchant prospecting, minimizing manual work to drive quicker and more accurate outreach.

While we are getting leverage from general purpose LLMs in our own business, I don’t believe that those same LLMs pose a true threat to our decision engine. In our view, LLMs lack calibration in the precise probability intervals required for fraud engines. Additionally, LLMs are optimized for text and image, while traditional AI fraud models like ours are much better at analyzing structured data inputs. The data we collect includes browsing behavior, account activity, checkout data, and post-fulfillment signals for every transactions. Our models learn from over 5 billion historical, non-public merchant network transactions that have been labeled and tagged. With this data, we create, update, and continuously deploy features to be used by our models that solve the increasing complexities of fraud. To that end, as we announced yesterday, we have recently developed features to address this problem.

Within our Policy Protect Decision Studio, merchants are able to identify and apply business rules to manage the risk of order volume coming from their native AI shopping agents. This control will allow merchants to confidently deploy their branded conversational AI agents without exposing themselves to programmatic refund claim abuse, reseller arbitrage, or promotional abuse. We also expanded our AI agent identity signals, allowing a merchant’s AI shopping agent to directly query Riskified’s Identity Graph to retrieve associated risk indicators and resolve an identity programmatically. The breadth and sophistication of our platform allows us to train, test, and deploy merchant or payment-specific models. We also use this platform to retrain models with updated data, new features, and segment calibrations to protect from emerging fraud patterns across our network. All this helps us drive optimized merchant performance, which at the end of the day, is the key driver of merchant satisfaction.

Our ability to rapidly adapt in the face of a shifting landscape does more than just protect our merchants. I believe it serves as the foundation for our sustained financial strength and disciplined execution. Over the past two years, we have repurchased shares representing approximately two-thirds of our current enterprise value. Based on our current expectations of improved free cash flow of approximately $40 million in 2026, we anticipate generating a free cash flow yield of approximately 10% relative to our current enterprise value. Looking ahead, I believe that our momentum remains strong. As a reflection of our confidence in Riskified’s long-term trajectory, I am pleased to announce that our board has authorized an additional $75 million share repurchase program.

This decision reflects our conviction in the fundamentals of the business, supported by strong free cash flow, a debt-free balance sheet, and a disciplined capital allocation strategy that we believe will prove beneficial for our shareholders. I want to thank our team again for their focus and strong execution against our 2025 financial plan. Our results reflected the top of our revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges. We enter 2026 in a position to accelerate our performance even further. Now, over to Agie.

Aglika Dotcheva, Chief Financial Officer, Riskified: Thank you, Idan, team, and everyone for joining today’s call. Unless otherwise noted, this discussion will reference non-GAAP financial measures. We have provided a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures in our earnings release. We achieved fourth quarter revenue of $99.3 million and full year revenue of $344.6 million, up 6% and 5% year-over-year respectively. While we don’t plan on reporting our billings going forward, our fourth quarter billings of $103.3 million grew 9% year-over-year. Our fourth quarter GMV of $46.7 billion was the highest quarter of volume reviewed in our history and represented growth of 18% as compared to the prior year period. For the full year of 2025, our GMV grew by 10% to $155.1 billion.

During the fourth quarter, revenue growth was partially driven by strong performance in our travel subvertical, reflecting continued momentum from the third quarter. These gains were partially offset by softness in our tickets and live events subvertical, which declined year-over-year, primarily due to tougher second half comparable periods versus 2024’s record levels of activity and larger live events. Overall, the total tickets and travel vertical was slightly positive in the period. Our money transfer and payments category grew 75% year-over-year, driven by new business wins and upsell activity. Our fashion, cosmetics, and luxury vertical grew 8% year-over-year. This was primarily driven by new business and upsell activity and 11% growth during the Black Friday through Cyber Monday period.

This growth was partially offset by continued same-store sale pressure in our high-end and sneaker subverticals, similar to the first nine months of the year. That being said, for the second quarter in a row, we did see year-over-year improvements in some of our largest merchants in this category. Lastly, I’m encouraged that we reverted to a year-over-year growth in the home category as we have now fully lapped the dynamic that impacted the first nine months of 2025. For the year, our money transfer and payments, fashion and luxury, tickets and travel categories were the largest contributors to our annual revenue growth. The combination of these verticals represented nearly 80% of total billings and are each expected to drive continuous growth in 2026.

For the full year, revenue in the United States declined 6% year-over-year, primarily as a result of the contraction in our home category. Encouragingly, we continue to grow across all of our non-US regions with accelerated year-over-year growth as compared to 2024. During 2025, APAC grew approximately 53% year-over-year, while other Americas, which represents Canada and Latin America, grew approximately 13% year-over-year, primarily driven by the momentum in new business and upsell activity with particular strength in the travel subvertical. EMEA grew approximately 18% year-over-year with the strongest performance concentrated in our money transfer and payments, tickets and travel, and fashion and luxury verticals, supported by both new business and upsell momentum.

Our revenue derived from merchants headquartered outside of the U.S. was 46% in 2025, up from 39% in 2024. We believe that our continued international growth reflects ongoing progress in capturing global market share. During the fourth quarter, we achieved record quarterly gross profit of $57.3 million, up 16% from the prior year, and $180.3 million for the full year, representing a year-over-year growth of 4%. The full year gross profit growth of 4% was driven by meaningful improvements in our core machine learning models with great performance in our money transfer and payments category and within our 2024 cohort, which delivered the most pronounced year-over-year improvement across cohorts. Our increased revenue from new products further contributed to our growth.

This improvement was partially offset by the ramping of merchants in newer geographies, such as Latin America and weaker performance in our 2022 cohort, which while still maturing, has yet to reach the performance levels of the broader portfolio. As a reminder, I encourage you to continue analyzing our gross profit on an annual basis, given individual quarters can vary due to the various factors, including the ramping of new merchants and the risk profiles of transactions approved. As it relates to 2026 for the full year, we’re targeting non-GAAP gross profit growth of 7%-12%, with each quarter at or near 10% growth at the midpoint. In addition, we estimate that each quarter in 2026 will approximate the same percentage of the total as they did in 2025. Moving to our operating expenses.

We continue to manage the business in a focused and disciplined manner. Total operating expenses were $39.6 million of the fourth quarter and $153.6 million for the full year, representing a decline of 2% from 2024. Our operating expenses as a percentage of revenue declined from 48% in 2024 to 45% in 2025, reflecting leverage in the business model. We ended 2025 with 670 global employees, a decline of 3% from the prior year.

This was achieved through the increased utilization of artificial intelligence tools to maximize output and increase efficiency, and by strategically reducing headcount in areas that were less critical to our product development and growth strategy. Despite this nominal decline, we ended the year with an increase in our development capacity, which we believe is critical to advancing platform innovation, outperforming our competition, and improving product accuracy and customer service to deepen our merchant relationships. In 2026, we anticipate quarterly expenses to approximate $41 million-$42 million per quarter in the first half of the year, and $42 million-$43 million per quarter in the second half. The primary driver of the increase from 2025 relates to FX headwinds, mainly from the appreciation of the Israeli shekel compared to the US dollar. The FX headwind is approximately 400 basis points to our annual adjusted EBITDA margin.

On a constant currency basis, we anticipate relatively flat expenses year-over-year as we continue to manage the business in a disciplined manner. We achieved Adjusted EBITDA of $70.7 million in the fourth quarter, the highest quarterly amount in our history, which translates to an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 18%. We believe that this quarter’s results demonstrate that the business is positioned for continued Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion and can achieve scaled performance like this over time. For the full year, our Adjusted EBITDA was $26.7 million, representing a year-over-year increase of over 55%. On a GAAP basis, we achieved net profit of $5.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, as compared with -$4.1 million in the prior year. I’m encouraged about the progress that we have made on achieving profitability on both a GAAP and Adjusted EBITDA basis.

Moving to the balance sheet. We ended the year with approximately $298 million of cash deposits and investments and continue to carry zero debt. In addition, we continue to maintain a healthy cash flow model. In the fourth quarter, we achieved free cash flows of $10.7 million and $33.1 million for the full year. Looking ahead, I’m encouraged that we expect our free cash flow to increase at least 20% and be approximately $40 million in 2026. During 2025, we repurchased approximately 22 million shares for a total price of $105.9 million, which contributed to a reduction of 8% in shares outstanding.

Since the inception of our buyback program in the fourth quarter of 2023, we have repurchased approximately 52 million shares for a total price of $259.5 million, which helped contribute to a 17% reduction in shares outstanding over that time period. As I mentioned, I’m excited to announce that our board of directors has authorized up to an additional $75 million of share repurchases, subject to the satisfaction of Israeli regulatory requirements. When combined with amounts that remain available under our existing share repurchase authorization, our total outstanding authorization is approximately $84 million. We believe that our strong balance sheet and liquidity position are strategic assets that provide us with the flexibility to navigate a range of operating environments. We intend to remain disciplined and thoughtful in how we deploy capital to create long-term shareholder value.

On the topic of share-based compensation and earnings per share. Share-based compensation expense of $51.6 million declined from $57.8 million in the prior year. As a % of revenue, this amount decreased by approximately 300 basis points from 2024 levels. This was on top of a decline of 700 basis points over the prior two years. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect absolute share-based compensation dollars and as a % of revenue to continue declining due to the gradual roll-off expense associated with large grants made in 2021 and 2022 as the awards fully vest throughout 2026. Our total absolute share-based compensation dollars should approximate $40 million for the year. We expect our free cash flow generation to approximate our share-based compensation in the year.

Our annual non-GAAP diluted net profit per share of $0.20 represents an increase of 18% in 2025. Turning to our outlook. As we look forward to 2026, we currently anticipate revenue of between $372 million and $384 million, representing growth of 8%-11% within $378 million or 10% to the midpoint. Consistent with past years, we anticipate that our growth will continue to be driven primarily by new business activity, and at the midpoint of our guidance, we’re forecasting a similar net dollar retention rate as in 2025. We currently expect all of the quarters in 2026 to reflect a similar percentage of the total revenue as they did in 2025, and growth to accelerate sequentially with each quarter throughout the year.

The behavior of the microenvironments, our success in retaining our merchants, and the level of upsell activity relative to new logo wins all may impact our net dollar retention rates and ultimately determine where we fall within our revenue range. We feel confident about the new business activity levels, which is supported by a robust pipeline of new opportunities. Historically, the timing of when new merchants go live during the year can be difficult to predict and may have an impact on our calendar year revenues. As always, we will continue to monitor the performance and health of our merchants, consumer spending and the broader e-commerce landscape and the impact on our results. Let me discuss our Adjusted EBITDA outlook. We currently expect Adjusted EBITDA to be between $26 million and $34 million, or $30 million to the midpoint, representing a margin of 8%.

This is inclusive of an approximate 400 basis point FX headwind to our adjusted EBITDA margin. Overall, I’m encouraged by our AI advantage, market position, and I’m confident that we can continue to execute on the elements within our operational control. We remain focused on identifying and executing on the many opportunities for long-term growth and our ability to deliver value to our shareholders. Operator, we’re ready to take the first question, please.

Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or a comment at this time, please press star one one on your telephone. If your question has been answered or you wish to remove yourself from the queue, please press star one one again. We’ll pause for a moment while we compile our Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Terry Tillman with Truist Securities. Your line is open.

Terry Tillman, Analyst, Truist Securities: Yeah, thanks for taking my questions, and congrats, Ido, Auggie, and Chet. The first question, and hopefully you can bear with me because it’s so topical around agentic commerce. It’s a multi-parter, and then I’ll have a follow-up question. As it relates to agentic, I appreciate kinda how you talked about two types of kind of agentic use cases. I’m curious if you can quantify any early GMV from those two different scenarios. Also, what would the monetization or take rate look like in transactions in that type of flow? How many merchants are you actually actively working with that are just trying this out at this point? I had a follow-up.

Eido Gal, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Riskified: Sure. Hey, Terry. I’ll take that. Maybe taking a step back, right? We feel we’re in a great position to talk to over 50 publicly traded companies and really understand what their agentic commerce strategy is. The way they’re laying it out to us is pretty clearly there are two main flows. The first flow, what we call the merchant-native AI agents, where they continue to own the relationship with the customer, and I think they have a lot of, shows a lot of promise in their mind, right? Here you would have an AI agent on their website that can support the entire life cycle from discovery to checkout to returns and customer support interactions. This entire experience is happening in their website.

If they’re a luxury fashion merchant, you know, they can have the right type of images and product descriptions and kinda flows and recommendations. If they’re an OTA, they can have the right type of filters that are appropriate for, you know, kinda traveling and routing. I think they’re putting a lot of emphasis on that area. What we’re seeing there is, you know, because LLMs are really... It’s easy to challenge them and get them to move off script and make financial decisions that you did not intend them to make. We’re serving really as this guard lane or intelligence layer that they’re querying in real time to understand, "Hey, should I approve this transaction?

What type of refund should I provide to this customer?" We’re just really leveraging the entire network that we already have, making it even more unique, the value that we’re providing them there. That’s kind of the merchant-native AI agent. The second flow is more kinda that general purpose LLM, where it can either act as a good referral or do the purchasing on behalf of the consumer. There, to be clear, we’re seeing predominantly referrals. You know, actually seeing agent traffic and purchasing, is still extremely low and limited. From a take rate perspective on the general purpose LLMs, we are seeing higher-risk traffic there right now.

Again, even if it’s very small, whenever you have some of these newer flows, fraud tends to come in because there’s more limited data, there’s lack of experience, there’s less guardrails and controls in most cases. I think on average, the take rate there will probably be higher right now. Over time, that might, you know, kinda shift. To just a more general question around traffic, I think merchants are in a stage where they’re trying to prepare and make sure that they’re ready for the changes, and put their best foot forward. You know, the traffic is probably not there yet.

Terry Tillman, Analyst, Truist Securities: That is very helpful. Thank you so much for that. I guess just to follow up, maybe for Auggie, it’s helpful when you go through the different segments that you’re serving and the growth rates. Money transfer and payments, it was another exceptional year of growth as you’re onboarding strategic accounts, and they’re growing. I’m curious, though, do you see that outsized type growth continuing in your guide for 2026 on money transfer and payments versus the other end markets? Thank you.

Aglika Dotcheva, Chief Financial Officer, Riskified: Hi, Terry. Money transfer and payments was an amazing category for us this year. The growth was really strong. Kind of looking into 2026, we have a number of opportunities in the pipeline. I expect the category to continue to grow, but probably just to normalize in terms of, like, the total amount of growth.

Terry Tillman, Analyst, Truist Securities: All right. Thank you.

Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Ryan Tomasello with KBW. Your line is open.

Ryan Tomasello, Analyst, KBW: Thanks, everyone. Eido, just following up on the agentic commerce topic. Can you talk about how you think about the potential for rising adoption there to either structurally reduce or increase the level of fraud in the system, you know, over the long run, notwithstanding kind of early days here? Then just your thoughts on the potential second order impacts. You know, there’s a lot of talk on, you know, agentic agents, agentic AI agents utilizing alternative payments rails like stable coins, you know, just how you view that also impacting, you know, the structure of the system here. Thanks.

Eido Gal, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Riskified: Ryan, sure. Look, I think what we’re seeing is that in order to, you know, be good at online commerce and payments specifically, you need to be doing a lot of things well. Right now, something that’s added is agentic, you know, kind of commerce, and you can add crypto and stable coins. If, you know, historically you would need to be able to manage credit cards and credit card acceptance, you now need to be able to support ACH and digital wallets and crypto and stable coins and agentic checkout. With agentic, we’re talking about a few different flows. You know, you don’t just need to think about the, you know, just the checkout. You also need to think about account creation and account login, and you probably have some stored value in the account that people can transfer in and out.

You obviously have the checkout experience, but you also have all these various post-checkout flows, returns, refunds, you know, leveraging different discount codes and abusing that. You have the entire chargeback process, which is different between credit cards and ACH. It’s not called a chargeback there, it’s insufficient funds. You have issues around, you know, scams that are popping up. I think we’re seeing an increase in complexity, and I would just tie in the agentic checkout into that overall increase in complexity. We’re seeing an overall increase in losses within the merchant ecosystem. I think that as merchants are trying to, you know, solve these different use cases and these various fraud patterns, it just becomes more complicated more quickly.

I think that’s, you know, kind of a net benefit to Riskified as we see this more complex environment increasing in the years ahead. On a bit more targeted and specifically on agentic, like we just mentioned, we do see an increase in fraud right now in agentic channels, specifically when you have general purpose LLMs. It could be a combination because it’s newer and fraud, you know, tends to shift to that area and there’s less, you know, control and saving there. Hard to say how that would kind of behave in kind of the quarters and years ahead as it gains more traction. As of now, it’s probably, you know, kind of net incremental to general take rates.

Ryan Tomasello, Analyst, KBW: Great. Appreciate that. You know, just an update if you can provide on the mid-market expansion strategy, how that plays into your 2026 growth and just broader investment plans in that category. Thanks.

Eido Gal, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Riskified: Yeah. I think one of the unique things about Riskified targeting the enterprises is that we’re able to really customize to a high level the modeling and the performance for each individual merchant. As we’ve been getting much better at completely automating the entire life cycle of doing that, I think that’s gonna present opportunities to kind of continue and refine this model in more of a downmarket and referral strategy. That’s not something that’s expected within our guide for the year. You know, the more we can accelerate that would be upside to current guidance.

Ryan Tomasello, Analyst, KBW: Great. Thanks for taking the questions.

Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Will Nance with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Chett Mandel, Head of Investor Relations, Riskified0: Hey, thanks for taking the question. First of all, hope all the teammates in Israel are home and safe. I wanted to ask also on the agentic, it’s kinda topic of the day. I was wondering if you could just speak to status on integrating into some of the latest agentic protocols, whether, you know, that’s kind of, you know, ICP at Stripe, UCP Google and any of the other relevant ones. I know a big part of the model is kinda taking all the different signals from the user behavior in those channels. Just maybe wondering if you could speak to that and, you know, maybe shed a little bit more light on kinda like the value of the data that might come through those protocols in detecting fraud vectors.

Eido Gal, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Riskified: Yeah. I think, by the way, thank you for mentioning kind of the team in Israel. We appreciate that. I think the issue right now that the market is seeing is, to your point, there are a wide number of multiple protocols. You know, some of them, I think it’s clear that they’re already outdated, and in the months, maybe quarters ahead, there will be new protocols that are probably even kinda more updated than that. Obviously internally, we’re doing everything we can to support everyone in that ecosystem, whether it’s, you know, kinda, AI Agent Approve, AWS Marketplace, Google’s, you know, A to A protocol, just general RESTful APIs. We do see ourselves requiring to have that full spectrum to make sure we cover everything. Unfortunately, we do anticipate a somewhat continued fragmented, you know, approach here.

you know, I think it’s still early to say if there’s anyone who’s gonna be a clear winner in that area. there’ll probably need to be some, you know, kind of optimization between the various protocols.

Chett Mandel, Head of Investor Relations, Riskified0: Got it. That makes sense. Maybe just one for Aggie. The FX headwind on the margin is helpful quantifying that. Could you just remind us of the it sounds like it’s the FX exposure in the cloth space that we should be thinking out there, Shekel and otherwise. I was wondering if you could just kinda update us on major currency weightings as we try to fine-tune the model. Thank you.

Aglika Dotcheva, Chief Financial Officer, Riskified: Yeah, I will. I mean, first of all, I’m so excited about the quarter, the guide, kind of the returning back to double-digit growth. If I think about the FX headwinds, we kind of spelled it out as approximately 400 basis points or $14 million to Adjusted EBITDA. It’s frustrating. I mean, over the years, we kind of focused, and we kind of ran on a flat expense base for a period of time. This FX headwind is really obscuring some of the progress. The truth is that the underlying business momentum is strong, and we’ll continue to focus on optimizing, we’ll continue to focus on growth, and I’m just excited about 2026.

Chett Mandel, Head of Investor Relations, Riskified0: Yep, got it. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Cristopher Kennedy with William Blair. Your line is open.

Christopher Kennedy, Analyst, William Blair: Great. Thanks for all the details and for taking the question. I’ll just echo Will’s comment regarding Israel. The revenues from newer products, you know, Policy Protect, Account Secure, doubled in 2025. Can you talk about kind of the opportunity for that set of products in 2026?

Eido Gal, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Riskified: Sure. Maybe just to refer back to kinda Ryan’s question where we said, hey, we’re seeing an increase in complexity of forms of fraud. We’re seeing it across different channels like ACH, digital wallets, crypto stable coins, agentic checkout, and we’re seeing it happen in different parts of the, you know, kinda shopping experience. Not just checkout, but also account creation and abuse of policy rules and things around dispute management. All this to say, I think it’s leading to an environment where there’s kinda more demand and more value and just basically more necessity for merchants to leverage the wider product platform.

If I think about the revenue that we anticipate from policy, Account Secure, Dispute Resolve, some of the non-guaranteed payment flows that we now work with merchants on, anywhere from $15 million-$20 million in 2026, I think is a good range at this point.

Christopher Kennedy, Analyst, William Blair: Great. Thanks for that. Just one for Aggie. If you think about the 2024 cohort, the CTB ratio really improved. Can you give us a little bit more color on what drove that improvement there?

Aglika Dotcheva, Chief Financial Officer, Riskified: Yeah, of course. I’m very excited about some of the improvements of this cohort. We saw already the result of that in Q4. There’s kinda some merchants there that are specifically about the money transfer and payments category. We were able to kind of do significantly better there. It’s kind of evident in the cohort. I think it’s like a great base for some of the merchants that are in the pipeline there and just continuing to kind of optimize incoming merchants as well.

Christopher Kennedy, Analyst, William Blair: Great. Thanks for taking the questions.

Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Timothy Chiodo with UBS. Your line is open.

Timothy Chiodo, Analyst, UBS: Great. Thanks a lot for taking the question. This one we’ve brought this up in the past, but I thought it would be a good one just to check in on to see if anything’s different in the agentic channel. My guess is it’s the same. The question is really the services that you’re providing to merchants, do you consider them and/or see them operating in addition to value-added services coming from the card networks or instead of value-added services coming from the card networks?

Eido Gal, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Riskified: Tim. Sorry, could you rephrase our services in addition to the services from the card networks?

Timothy Chiodo, Analyst, UBS: Sure. If a merchant is working with Riskified, are they using Riskified in addition to some of the fraud-related value-added services coming from the card networks, or are they using Riskified?

Eido Gal, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Riskified: Okay.

Timothy Chiodo, Analyst, UBS: some of the fraud tools that are coming from the card networks?

Eido Gal, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Riskified: Okay. Thank you for clarifying. Look, I think there’s no direct comparable in the stack of the card service providers right now to the spectrum of Riskified. One of them has more, you know, data-related features, I think their Mastercard acquired Ekata. Visa probably has a Visa Secure. Those are, you know, kind of what we consider data features. One of them has a more older generation scoring tool that we don’t really view as competitive. No one has a policy product. Definitely no one has, you know, kind of what we would consider a modern machine learning type solution for fraud prevention. I think the dispute product also, there’s nothing comparable. On the account side, there’s nothing comparable.

If you think about support for ACH, crypto stable coin, you know, kind of the fiat conversion and account storage, there’s nothing comparable. On agentic checkout, there’s definitely nothing, you know, that we’ve seen comparable to some of the releases we’ve recently made. So I think overall it’s, you know, on the Venn diagram, it’s pretty distinct and different. There could be different services that they provide, you know, maybe more towards financial institutions, anything around tokenization and rails for really secure. That’s less in our wheelhouse. But hopefully that gives kind of a good mapping of what we do that they don’t do.

Timothy Chiodo, Analyst, UBS: Excellent. That’s a great answer. Thank you so much. My follow-up is around you were talking around some of the other forms of payment, whether it be account to account, stablecoin, basically alternative payment methods in general. I know that it’s early, but in your experience and with your position in the industry, do you have any reason to believe that the card mix within the agentic channel would be any different than the card mix is in traditional e-commerce? So whatever you believe that the mix is to be in traditional e-commerce, do you think through the agentic channel that it would be roughly the same, maybe the card mix is a little lower, or maybe the card mix is a little higher? And what would be the reason that would lead you to believe the answer to the question?

Eido Gal, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Riskified: Yeah. Thank you. I think that’s a great question, obviously a lot of debate on that. I think there are specific industries and probably payments, remittance, you know, kinda brokerages, which would probably see an increase over time on whether, you know, it’s kinda stable coins, cryptos, or also direct ACH connections, just because, you know, exchange fees, FX rates, everything that we know. I think there probably is the potential for more to migrate. You know, maybe with long-term subscriptions as things like ACH and others become easier, maybe merchants would have an easier time transferring some customers for, you know, kind of various discounts to that area. Overall, by and large, in most categories, I would not anticipate a shift.

I think that overall consumer preference for cards, for rewards continues to be incredibly high, and I think merchants adapt to that. I don’t see that changing based on kinda, you know, the LLM channel or merchant native AI agents. I think merchants already have the ability, you know, to capture with extremely low interchange fees, debit cards. I think when you think about things like, you know, reward cards, the customer gets so much value from that, they have a clear preference. I think, you know, large merchants also have the ability to issue their own reward cards and take a meaningful portion of that interchange fee, and usually through agreements with, you know, kinda networks or the issuers also take some of, you know, kind of the potential float or value of kinda installments or late payments there.

From an ecosystem perspective, I think, you know, cards are still around to stay in most categories, but there’s probably a few specific areas where we’ll see an increased adoption in alternative payments. I don’t see a clear difference between kinda general purpose LLMs or merchant native AI that would make them specifically work on, you know, kinda stable coins or anything else relative to the existing rails.

Timothy Chiodo, Analyst, UBS: Thank you so much. Really do appreciate that.

Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Reginald Smith with JP Morgan. Your line is open.

Reginald Smith, Analyst, JP Morgan: Yes, congrats on the quarter and achieving GAAP profitability. I guess I got another question about agentic as well. I, you know, I get and I appreciate that there’s not a lot of transaction flow coming from, I guess, third-party LLMs today, it’s early days. Definitely get that. I’m thinking about someone asked earlier about, you know, like, how pricing may work there. I’m curious just, like, how that would roll out in general. And specifically, like, would merchants need separate contracts for agentic, or would it just be rolled into their standard, you know, e-commerce that occurs on their website? And then, you know, kind of beyond that, as you think about, you know, this new surface and these new potential risks, like, how are you...

Does that give you any pause at all, or concern around, like, what early losses could be like and what kinda differentiates you there, given that you won’t have, like, a, you know, a 13-year head start or, you know, back-testing history that you have on the traditional commerce side? Just curious, like, how you’re thinking about that, and, like, practically how this could actually roll out, to your customers and yeah.

Eido Gal, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Riskified: Sure. Thanks, Reggie. That’s a great question. I think it’s there are two ways this can go. One is with a client that’s on various submission plans and not giving everything right now to Riskified, and usually they would proactively come and say, "Hey, we’re opening up this agentic channel," or, "We’re seeing some initial, you know, kinda traffic," or maybe we’re even reaching out to them. They say, you know, "We would want you to manage this, definitely ’cause, you know, we’re not prepared to do that." We’ve seen some of the larger clients that we work with approach us proactively with that. We’re also in contact, you know, directly with some of our other merchants. The pricing there, it’s just, you know, slightly more flexible pricing to start.

I think merchants are very open to having a higher price initially, both because they understand there’s an increased fraud in this day 1, also because the absolute dollar amounts are still so small. It’s, you know, it’s less of an issue, obviously we would kinda better negotiate mutually the fees once we understand the actual risk profile and the volume there. That’s 1 instance. The other one is merchants that, you know, already exist and are providing all their volume to Riskified. Yes, it continues to be the case that we would just see this traffic, and, you know, based on the risk profile there, if there’s a significant increase. We might need to have a discussion with the merchant what that means from a commercial perspective.

As I think about, you know, how do we anticipate some of this fraud, you know, on the one hand, you’re right to say that it’s still early stage and a single merchant might only see, you know, a single transaction. By that same token, you know, we’re seeing it across the network of some of the largest merchants, and we’re seeing some of the newer fraud MOs happen. If you think about our system overall, what’s unique and great about our system is that we’re able to see fraud MOs in real time in one place and then adapt features or create new segments and deploy that relatively quickly to other parts in the model.

Even though this is something that’s, you know, kinda newer, our system really is adapt at, you know, learning new fraud rings, new fraud MOs, and, you know, pushing updates to the rest of the system based on that. It’s what we’ve done as we’ve expanded into LATAM, into, you know, kind of other APAC regions. You can continue to see that. I think Agi mentioned on, you know, some of the CPB cohorts, some of that continued quick improvements there. Adyen, you know, behaves the same, right? There’s like new fraud trends. You need to stop it leaving there and then solve it for the rest of the portfolio.

Reginald Smith, Analyst, JP Morgan: Got it. Okay. If I could ask one quick one on kinda FX. I appreciate that you guys are paid in dollars, but I was curious, is there any FX benefit to GMV growth next year, or is that in U.S. dollars as well? Like, FX is not my strong suit, so anything you could share there would be helpful. Thank you.

Aglika Dotcheva, Chief Financial Officer, Riskified: Hi, Reggie. I’ll take this one. Specifically, the way I kind of view the FX, the fluctuations over the years have been able that we were able to absorb. Specifically this year, where I see the FX impact and kind of isolated it, in this 400 basis points effect on Adjusted EBITDA is around the strengthening of the Israeli currency, the shekel versus the US dollar. Since half of our expenses approximately are in Israel, it’s impacting it more materially. That’s the main kind of FX impact that I talked about and that it’s worth mentioning. Without this, as I mentioned, on a constant currency basis, our expenses would have been flat year-over-year.

Reginald Smith, Analyst, JP Morgan: Yeah. I guess just to put a finer point on it, will there be a FX tailwind to revenue from the dollar just being weaker in general? Clearly you’ve isolated the expense side, but I’m just curious, like is there anything we should think about, you know, at the revenue line?

Aglika Dotcheva, Chief Financial Officer, Riskified: On the revenue line, it’s probably much minor. I would imagine it’s, if anything, probably from the euro, but that’ll be probably less than half a %. It’s something that we’ve already incorporated in projections as kind of like we’re basing our projections on what we see today.

Reginald Smith, Analyst, JP Morgan: Okay. No, that’s fine. Thank you so much.

Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Clark Wright with D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Clark Wright, Analyst, D.A. Davidson: Thank you. Agi, at the beginning, or I believe this actually might have been Eido, you spoke about the fact that your strategy is more oriented going forward on gross profit growth versus revenue growth. What does that mean from a go-to-market perspective and your risk tolerance for specific product categories?

Eido Gal, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Riskified: Yeah. Thanks for that question. Look, we’ve seen internally, I mean, we’ve always focused as a management team on gross profit, gross profit dollars, gross profit dollar growth. It’s probably been more of a focus recently over the past few quarters and will be over the next few quarters just because we’re seeing more demand and more bundling strategies for the, you know, kinda wider product portfolio. Overall, you know, there’s a different margin profile within those products.

For us, it’s clear we really wanna focus on the gross profit dollars and that growth. From a sales perspective, you know, anything from how they target accounts to how we think about commission structures is more oriented in this direction now.

Clark Wright, Analyst, D.A. Davidson: Awesome. Appreciate that. Just on another topic that was already discussed partially earlier, but just wanted to understand the penetration rate on the non-chargeback guarantee products and the assumptions that you have for the 2026 guide. You referenced the $15 million-$20 million, but what does that mean in terms of the overall customer base and their willingness to accept or to adopt these offerings?

Eido Gal, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Riskified: Yeah. I think we, I think we shared on the script that we were seeing good progress of.

Aglika Dotcheva, Chief Financial Officer, Riskified: Around 50%.

Eido Gal, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Riskified: Around 50% kind of increase in adoption. We haven’t really spelled it out by the specific product or what’s dual product or what’s triple product. We’ll think about the best way to represent that to make it easier for investors to follow. Right now, we think that, you know, kind of revenue is probably the best proxy for that. Like we mentioned, went from, you know, I think it was really, you know, low single-digit millions to $10 million, and we think we can continue to grow that to $15 million-$20 million this year.

Clark Wright, Analyst, D.A. Davidson: Got it. Thank you.

Operator: I’m not showing any further questions at this time. I’d like to turn the call back over to Eido for any further remarks.

Eido Gal, Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer, Riskified: Thank you. Just before I conclude, I wanna send my support to our team members in Israel and their families. Thank everyone for their hard work. Just thank you everyone for joining today’s call. I look forward to continuing to update you on our progress throughout the year.

Operator: Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today’s presentation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.