NextNav Q4 2025 Earnings Call - FCC Draft NPRM Sent to OMB, Company Sees Direct Path to Report and Order
Summary
NextNav used its Q4 call to put the FCC process front and center. Management confirmed a draft notice of proposed rulemaking on positioning, navigation, and timing technologies has been sent to the White House OMB and said NextNav expects a direct path from that NPRM to a Report and Order, while acknowledging timing remains outside the company’s control. The team also highlighted commercialization steps: an experimental license to operate what it calls the world’s first 5G-powered PNT network, an expanded commercial licensing deal in Japan with MetCom, and governance and liquidity moves to support multi-year execution.
The picture is part technical progress and part policy sprint. NextNav is selling a terrestrial complement and backup to GPS, leaning on national security urgency and recent global jamming incidents to make the case. Financially the company says it has runway, roughly $152 million in cash and short-term investments, and potential warrant proceeds in 2026, but Q4 featured a $48 million non-cash loss tied to warrant and derivative revaluation that pushed the net loss to about $68 million for the quarter.
Key Takeaways
- FCC process update: FCC has formally sent a draft NPRM on PNT technologies to the White House OMB, and NextNav says it expects the NPRM to progress to a Report and Order, though timing is out of the company’s control.
- NextNav claims a unique role: management says NextNav provides a one-of-one combination of wide-scale positioning, timing, and 3D geolocation that fits into a system-of-systems approach to back up GPS.
- Experimental 5G PNT testing: NextNav is operating an experimental license for what it calls the world’s first 5G-powered PNT network in a defined geographic area; company stresses this testing is for early commercialization and separate from the FCC NPRM process.
- MetCom partnership expanded: NextNav licensed technology to Japan’s MetCom to power terrestrial timing services in major Japanese metros, a validation of international commercial demand and 3GPP standards-based scalability.
- 10+5 channel testing: Company data and testing are focused on a 10 downlink by 5 uplink MHz configuration, which NextNav says improves PNT accuracy and aligns with how 5G positioning works.
- GPS vulnerability narrative: Management emphasized GPS weaknesses including indoor gaps, jamming and spoofing, citing the low cost of consumer jammers and recent GPS/communications disruptions in the Middle East to underscore urgency.
- No taxpayer funding claim: NextNav stated its solution can be commercially viable and deployed without taxpayer funding, positioning it as a market-based backup/complement to GPS.
- Governance moves: Lisa Hook, former CEO of Neustar, was named lead independent director; CEO Mariam Sorond joined the CTIA Board, signaling deeper industry and policy engagement.
- Liquidity and runway: Q4 cash and short-term investments were approximately $152 million; company says it has significant runway and deliberate capital management plans.
- Potential warrant proceeds: NextNav has a large set of warrants expiring in 2026 that could generate over $200 million in additional capital depending on stock price performance.
- Q4 non-cash charges: The company recorded roughly $48 million in losses tied to changes in the fair value of derivative and warrant liabilities, contributing to a Q4 net loss of about $68 million.
- Spectrum and assets: Management highlighted valuable spectrum holdings and continued development of field testing as strategic assets underpinning commercialization.
- Regulatory process caveat: While management is confident in the FCC’s direction, they acknowledged the inter-agency review (NTIA, IRAC, OMB/OIRA) is ongoing and the final NPRM content has not been disclosed to the company.
- Commercial vs. regulatory separation: NextNav repeatedly separated its experimental/commercial testing from the FCC rulemaking, saying testing is intended to drive early commercial rollouts irrespective of the regulatory timetable.
- Message discipline: Management framed progress as both national security necessity and commercial opportunity, leaning on policy momentum under current administration and FCC leadership while warning the timing is uncertain.
Full Transcript
Jared, Investor Relations / Call Moderator, NextNav: Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to NextNav’s fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Participating on today’s call are Mariam Sorond, NextNav’s Chief Executive Officer, and Tim Gray, NextNav’s Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, let me remind everyone that this call will include certain statements that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements may be identified by use of the words may, anticipate, believe, expect, intend, should, could, and similar expressions. Such forward-looking statements, which may relate to NextNav’s forecast of future results, future prospects, developments, and business strategies are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and assumptions, many of which are outside NextNav’s control and could cause actual results to differ.
In particular, such forward-looking statements include the achievement of certain FCC-related milestones and FCC approvals, NextNav’s projections, plans, objectives and expectations, and NextNav’s future business strategies and competitive position. These statements are based on management’s current expectations and beliefs, as well as a number of assumptions concerning future events. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance upon the forward-looking statements which speak only as of the date made, and NextNav undertakes no commitment to update or revise the forward-looking statements except as required by law. For additional information regarding risks and uncertainties, please refer to the risk factors and other disclosures contained in the company’s filings with the SEC. Following prepared remarks, the company will host an operator-led question and answer session. In addition, a replay of our discussion will be posted to the company’s investor relations website. I’d now like to turn the call over to Ms. Sorond.
Please go ahead, Mariam.
Mariam Sorond, Chief Executive Officer, NextNav: Thank you, Jared. Good afternoon, and thank you all for joining us today. I’ll begin with an important update on our FCC process. Earlier this month, the FCC formally sent a draft notice of proposed rulemaking or NPRM focused on PNT technologies and solutions to the White House OMB. This is a critical step in the process, and I am confident in the NPRM advancing to Report and Order. This development underscores the FCC’s focus on addressing the national security urgency of identifying resilient backups and complements to GPS. It reflects an incredible milestone achieved in rapid time and extraordinary momentum under this administration. While I am thrilled, it does not come as a surprise as this progress is consistent with the confidence I have expressed over the prior quarters regarding the FCC’s direction.
The NextNav team has worked tirelessly alongside a highly engaged FCC, and we are extremely proud of where we stand today. It marks significant validation of NextNav’s solution to a critical national security priority at a time of heightened global risk as adversaries continue to invest in their own terrestrial PNT capabilities. The US must meet the moment. The inter-agency review of the NPRM is now progressing as expected. While we do not yet know its specific contents, we do know that NPRMs can take many forms, and based on the strength and completeness of the existing record, we remain confident in a direct path to a Report and Order. NextNav plays an important role in a system of systems framework that combines multiple terrestrial and space-based capabilities to build redundancy and resiliency across America’s critical infrastructure.
A redundancy that exists today for our adversaries, including Russia and China, but not for the United States. NextNav’s proposed solution is a one of one within this system of systems framework, requiring capabilities that only NextNav can provide. A unique combination of wide-scale positioning, timing, and 3D geolocation services which are commercially viable and we believe can be made available during the current administration. Moreover, our solution is future-proof and does not require taxpayer funding. The anticipated NPRM is supported by a well-developed and complete record. Though as we have stated on prior earnings calls, the exact timing of the process remains outside of our control. We applaud the administration and Chairman Carr for their actionable leadership on this issue and look forward to continue to work constructively with the FCC and key stakeholders as the process moves forward.
As the national conversation around resilience and critical infrastructure is expanding, NextNav is increasingly contributing to the highest levels of industry and policy leadership. To that end, I am pleased to have joined the CTIA Board of Directors and participated in my first board meeting alongside a dynamic group of leaders. I look forward to advancing the association’s mission and helping expand the capabilities of 5G networks in ways that strengthen America’s national security infrastructure to ensure our industry remains the gold standard for innovation, public safety, and national security globally. Furthermore, NextNav continues to advance dialogue across both regulatory and industry audiences through participation in recent events, including Mobile World Congress 2026 in Barcelona and the 2026 Milken Institute South Florida Dialogues. Discussions at these forums highlighted several key themes.
First, there was clear recognition that multiple public and private sector organizations are working towards PNT capabilities with PNT increasingly viewed as the killer application for 5G and 6G. One that could be among the most valuable transformative uses of these networks. Second, it was clear that strengthening resiliency and vulnerable systems is essential both for deterrence and for regaining U.S. leadership in critical technologies. It was top of mind in discussions that GPS has clear vulnerabilities, including indoor coverage gaps, jamming, and spoofing. It takes as little as a $200 jammer purchased online to disrupt signals, let alone the capabilities of an adversary. Recent developments in the Middle East conflict, including widespread GPS and communications jamming, highlight how quickly these disruptions can escalate and destabilize critical systems.
That’s why a ground component is essential, and NextNav has the largest footprint capable of delivering a unique combination of positioning, timing, and 3D geolocation capabilities. Independent of our work with the FCC, NextNav continues to advance its technology and commercialization efforts. First, we are very proud to have begun operating the world’s first 5G-powered PNT network, marking an important step towards commercialization. While the FCC granted NextNav an experimental license to begin this testing in a defined geographic location, I will reiterate that the testing itself is for early commercialization purposes and is independent of the FCC’s NPRM process. Next, we announced an expanded partnership with Japan’s MetCom. We believe this partnership is a compelling validation of demand for resilient terrestrial 5G-based 3D PNT solutions and represents a potentially significant commercial opportunity beyond the U.S. market.
Under the agreement, MetCom has licensed our technology to power new terrestrial timing services in major Japanese metropolitan areas, highlighting both the strength of the deal and the international scalability of our platform, particularly given our 3GPP standards-based approach, which makes technology partnerships outside the U.S. especially attractive. It is essential to support our allies in a complex geopolitical landscape. As a public company, strengthening our governance is important as we advance a terrestrial market-based backup and complement to GPS. With that, we are pleased to welcome Lisa Hook as our board’s new lead independent director. She brings decades of public company board experience at the intersection of technology, telecommunications, and national security. Her experience as CEO of Neustar, a publicly traded global information services company, leading it through years of complex technology and policy, make her an ideal thought partner as we execute on our mission.
With that, I will turn things over to Tim for a review of our financials. Tim?
Tim Gray, Chief Financial Officer, NextNav: Thank you, Mariam, and good afternoon, everyone. Based on the actions taken in 2025 to enhance the company’s liquidity, NextNav continues to hold a position of financial strength and strategic advantage with a strong cash position, valuable spectrum assets, and the continued development of field testing of our resilient proven technology. On liquidity, we finished the fourth quarter with approximately $152 million in cash equivalents, and short-term investments. We will continue to manage our use of capital as we advance our ambitious goals, taking a deliberate approach to liquidity and commercialization. In addition, we have a significant number of warrants expiring in 2026 that have the potential to deliver over $200 million in additional capital depending on stock price performance. Let me be very clear that we believe we have significant runway and funding for multiple years.
For our fourth quarter, a financial item of note. As a reminder, the gains or losses related to our outstanding private warrants and derivative liability fluctuate based on movements in our stock price. While last quarter we had gains, this quarter we’re reporting losses. In the fourth quarter, we recognized losses of approximately $48 million associated with the change in the fair value of the derivative and warrants liability. The impacts of these non-cash losses resulted in our net loss for the quarter of roughly $68 million. These charges are a result of the funding the company took on earlier in 2025, which has put the company on very solid footing. With that, I’ll turn the call over to the operator for questions. Operator?
Operator: At this time, if you would like to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, simply press star one again. We kindly ask that you limit your questions to one and one follow-up for today’s call. We will pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Mike Crawford with B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.
Mike Crawford, Analyst, B. Riley Securities: Thank you. Yes, we were pleased to see that the FCC sent this promoting the development of PNT technologies to the OMB on March second, but have you seen the contents of what was actually sent? Do we know if that’s any different from what has been contemplated previously?
Mariam Sorond, Chief Executive Officer, NextNav: Hi, Mike. Thanks for the question. The NPRM has been drafted, and it is in the inter-agency review process. We have not seen the contents, and that is part of the process. Contents will be available. The draft review will be available once it finalizes its inter-agency process with the NTIA, IRAC, and OMB, OIRA.
Mike Crawford, Analyst, B. Riley Securities: Okay. Thank you, Mariam. Then the data that you’ve been collecting shows that you get more precise PNT when you have a 10 by 5 channel and so do you think that is something that’s what we’re likely gonna see when we get an NPRM and eventually Report and Order?
Mariam Sorond, Chief Executive Officer, NextNav: Well, definitely we’ve been testing, and we’re testing towards a 10+5 capability, and that’s part of our commercialization effort, and it’s also just basically how 5G networks operate with respect to positioning. It becomes more accurate with the downlink being 10 megahertz. We’ve made those studies over at the FCC, and we remain confident that we’re gonna move forward with this FCC, working with them to make sure that we meet the backup and complement requirements of GPS.
Mike Crawford, Analyst, B. Riley Securities: Thanks. Well, we hope we see that in April or May. Thank you.
Mariam Sorond, Chief Executive Officer, NextNav: Thank you.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of David Joyce with Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead.
David Joyce, Analyst, Seaport Research Partners: Thank you. Could you please provide any interesting learnings so far with your MetCom relationship and perhaps connect that with how that might help with accelerating commercialization in the U.S.?
Mariam Sorond, Chief Executive Officer, NextNav: Hi, David, and thanks for the question. I think there’s definitely an international opportunity. MetCom is part of that for us, and we’re super excited about the partnership that we’ve had with them and this new development with respect to what they’re doing in Japan. I think this is a solution that, as we have said, can be taken global, and it does have an international opportunity. What we’re facing today with a lot of the GPS or GNSS in general, jamming and spoofing issues, is a global problem. We will share the results of whatever MetCom does when they publicize it with the market. Right now, this is a great step advancing that partnership and relationship with us.
David Joyce, Analyst, Seaport Research Partners: Thank you very much.
Mariam Sorond, Chief Executive Officer, NextNav: Sure. Thank you.
Operator: That concludes our question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Mariam Sorond for closing remarks.
Mariam Sorond, Chief Executive Officer, NextNav: In closing, NextNav remains highly optimistic about the path ahead toward an FCC vote on an NPRM in the near term, with clear line of sight to a Report and Order. We look forward to continued engagement with the FCC and key stakeholders. We are very proud of the progress we’re making to deliver a resilient, future-proof terrestrial complement and backup to GPS, strengthening U.S. economic and national security at a critical moment in time. Thank you all.
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.