Grand Canyon Education Q1 2026 Earnings Call - Enrollment Surges as AI Reshapes Lead Generation
Summary
Grand Canyon Education delivered a strong first quarter of 2026, with online enrollment growth accelerating to 8.8% and hybrid enrollment jumping 20.3% after adjusting for closed sites. The company is navigating a structural shift in higher education marketing as AI-driven search behavior shrinks traditional web lead conversion, but GCE’s direct partnerships with over 5,500 employers now account for 30% of new starts, providing a resilient, purpose-driven enrollment pipeline. Management emphasized that flexibility, speed, and AI integration are the new competitive moats in education, with GCE deploying dozens of AI tools across its academic and operational infrastructure to drive efficiency and student outcomes.
Financially, service revenue grew 6.7% to $308.8 million, and adjusted non-GAAP EPS beat consensus at $2.86. Operating margin expanded to 30.9% driven by a revenue beat and disciplined expense management. The company is recommitting to aggressive share buybacks, with $189.7 million remaining under authorization, while signaling that hybrid growth will moderate as locations approach capacity. GCE’s strategic pivot toward workforce-aligned programs, licensure-focused pathways, and a new Honors College on its Phoenix campus underscores a broader bet that institutions which scale quickly and align with employer needs will win the next decade of higher education.
Key Takeaways
- Online enrollment growth reached 8.8% in Q1 2026, significantly exceeding long-term objectives and reflecting strong demand for flexible, career-aligned degree programs.
- Hybrid enrollment surged 20.3% after excluding closed and teach-out sites, driven by the expansion of accelerated BSN pathways and new graduate nursing offerings with partners.
- AI is actively reshaping student acquisition as traditional web leads shrink; GCE now sources 30% of new starts through direct employer partnerships, creating a more predictable and higher-retention pipeline.
- Service revenue grew 6.7% year-over-year to $308.8 million, supported by enrollment gains and contract modifications that improved margin structure by reducing faculty cost pass-throughs.
- Adjusted non-GAAP EPS of $2.86 beat consensus by $0.08, with operating margin expanding to 30.9% on a revenue beat and disciplined expense management.
- Management expects hybrid growth to moderate in 2026 as 14 locations approach capacity, signaling a shift from rapid site expansion to profitability optimization at existing campuses.
- GCU’s traditional ground campus enrollment dipped slightly in Q1 but fall 2026 registrations are ahead of prior year, bolstered by a new Honors College and targeted marketing shifts toward social and employer channels.
- The company is investing heavily in AI across 375 academic programs and operational functions, aiming to improve student outcomes, reduce cost per start, and scale licensure-focused programs like nursing and education.
- Share repurchases totaled $120.4 million in Q1, with $189.7 million remaining under authorization, as management continues to view the stock as undervalued relative to free cash flow yield and enterprise value metrics.
- Full-year 2026 guidance was reaffirmed with slight adjustments to interest income and share count, while the effective tax rate is expected to rise to 24.4% due to expanded state tax exposure from new hybrid locations outside Arizona.
Full Transcript
Conference Moderator, Moderator: Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Q1 2026 Grand Canyon Education Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker’s presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Sarah Collins, General Counsel. Please go ahead.
Sarah Collins, General Counsel, Grand Canyon Education: Joining me on today’s call is our Chairman and CEO, Brian Mueller, and our CFO, Dan Bachus. Please note that many of our comments today will contain forward-looking statements that involve risk and uncertainties. Various factors could cause our actual results to be materially different from any future results expressed or implied by such statements. These factors are discussed in our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and current reports on Form 8-K. We undertake no obligation to provide updates with regard to the forward-looking statements made during this call. We recommend that all investors review these reports thoroughly before taking a financial position in GCE. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Brian.
Brian Mueller, Chairman and CEO, Grand Canyon Education: Good afternoon, and thank you for joining Grand Canyon Education’s first quarter 2026 conference call. GCE had another strong quarter, producing online enrollment growth of 8.8% and hybrid growth, excluding the closed sites and those that are in teach out of 20.3%. Grand Canyon Education, Grand Canyon University, and now 19 additional partners have produced remarkably consistent positive results over the last 17 plus years in spite of significant change in the macro environments of education and the workplace. Most significantly, GCU has gone from the brink of bankruptcy to now being the largest private university in America. In addition to over 110,000 students studying online, GCU now has 25,000 students in an on-campus environment and has more students living in university-owned housing on its campus than any university in the country.
Recently, GCE and its partners have built 47 hybrid campuses throughout the country to address severe shortages in the healthcare fields. More recently, GCE has assisted GCU in building a workforce development center to produce professionals in the rapidly growing construction and manufacturing fields where there are also severe shortages. The growth and success that has taken place is because GCE and its partners have built a model that is extremely flexible, is able to respond with great speed, and it has used advanced technologies to produce tremendous scale. The current dissatisfaction with higher education is because faculty governance models are very inflexible, move very slowly, and can’t scale to meet demands. Excellence in higher education is gonna be defined in very different terms going forward. There’s a lot of talk about how AI will produce winners and losers by industry types.
The real discussion should be about winners and losers within industries. Higher education as an industry will continue to exist. Institutions that are flexible, fast, and that can scale will be able to use AI to flourish to even greater levels in the next 10 years. Higher education will be more important than ever if it can educate the next generation of workers to use AI in 3 important ways. One, to use AI to produce products to increase levels of human productivity. Two, to quickly allow workers whose jobs have been eliminated to re-career. 3, to educate a generation of workers for jobs that don’t exist today but will exist in the future. It’s important that universities don’t just teach AI, but are able to model it in the way it runs its business.
GCE and GCU has dozens of AI products and products in development across 10 colleges, over 375 academic programs, emphases, and certificates, and across every operational area. Students are learning with increasing levels of excellence and efficiency. Scores currently produced by GCU students in exit and licensure exams in the areas of healthcare, education, accounting, et cetera, are reaching all-time highs while scaling to huge numbers. This is especially important for GCU since it has rapidly expanded into academic areas requiring licensure. Programmatic areas like nursing, education, social work, counseling, et cetera, will benefit from AI implementation, but employment in those areas will always require formal higher education, the completion of degrees, and licensure. Project work produced by business, engineering, and technology students are at increasing levels of sophistication. GCU’s Innovation Center is producing new student businesses that are thriving.
To succeed in the future, universities must produce these real-world opportunities for students, they must graduate in less time for less money and for lower debt levels. Our AI products are making curriculum more targeted, faculty more effective and efficient, allowing operators to produce greater levels of student support. I believe AI will make our current advantages even greater, which makes me even more confident we will continue to meet or exceed our long-term objectives. With that, I would like to review the first quarter results. First, the online campus at Grand Canyon University. New starts were up in the high single digits in the first quarter of 2026, which was slightly above our expectations, total enrollment growth was 8.8%, which significantly exceeds GCU’s long-term objectives.
In the past, I have highlighted four reasons for the growth. They include continuing to roll out 20-plus new programs on an annual basis, working with over 5,500 employers directly to address workforce shortages, strong retention levels, and holding the line on tuition to maintain GCU’s competitive pricing position. Working with over 5,500 employers directly to address workforce shortages puts us in a very strong position with regard to online enrollment growth. We are now getting approximately 30% of our new starts by directly working with employers. The lead generation environment is definitely being impacted by the increasing numbers of people using artificial intelligence rather than an organization’s website to gather information that they will use to make important purchases and life decisions.
Our ability to respond to those changes is greater than the competition because of our unique ability to generate a high percentage of our students without using the typical lead generation strategies. The students we are generating by working directly with employers tend to be very purpose-driven and have high retention and graduation rates. Our marketing team continues to roll out AI strategies to showcase the strong brands and outcomes of our partners. We believe in the long term, this will be very positive for us. Second, the GCU ground campus for traditional students. Total traditional campus enrollments were down slightly year-over-year in the spring of 2026 as expected.
Spring total enrollments have historically been less than fall enrollments as spring new enrollments is a small percentage of overall traditional campus new enrollments, as they are mostly made up of transfers or students that deferred a semester. Total enrollment is impacted by the growing number of students that are graduating in less than 4 years. We believe GCU will continue to experience annual new student growth on the ground campus each fall, despite its increasing number of graduates because of its significant advantages, including the very low price point, very low average debt levels, % of students completing in less than 4 years, the relevancy of GCU’s academic programs to a fast-changing and modern economy, and having the 20th-ranked campus in the country.
As we discussed on last quarter’s earnings calls, we have made some changes to our marketing and recruitment strategy for GCU’s traditional campus, which accelerated some spend into 2025 and the first half of 2026. Those changes to date are producing positive results as registrations for fall 2026 remain ahead of last year. Even with the macro trends I discussed earlier and a tougher year-over-year comps, we believe we can grow new enrollments significantly year over year, which should get residential students back to growth. Two weeks ago, GCU made a major announcement. As part of its 25,000 student traditional campus, GCU is one of the fastest-growing Honors Colleges in the country.
Mike Ingram, one of Arizona’s most prolific land developers, has made a long-term commitment to the future of the college and has been named the Sheila and Mike Ingram Honors College. GCU expects to have over 3,000 students in the fall with average weighted incoming GPAs of over 4.1. This is one of the highest in the country. The students are coming from all 50 states and are studying across all 10 of GCU’s colleges. Students are getting internships and eventually jobs at many of America’s top companies, healthcare organizations, school districts, counseling centers, engineering firms, et cetera. GCU plans to more than double the student population, making it one of the largest and most impactful honors colleges in the country.
Mr. Ingram is leading an effort to build a very prestigious Honors College council, which will be comprised of highly successful pro-professionals from the worlds of business, entertainment, politics, education, healthcare, and sports. A 55,000 sq ft building is under construction to open in the fall that will be a state-of-the-art facility containing lecture halls, collaboration spaces, maker spaces, and gathering areas for many of America’s best students. We believe the university’s academic brand will continue to accelerate upwards as the Honors College grows, which is another reason we remain optimistic about the future growth of GCU’s traditional campus. Third, Grand Canyon Education’s hybrid campus had an increase in enrollment year-over-year of 18.3% in the first quarter. Excluding the closed sites and those that are in teach out, enrollment increased 20.3% year-over-year.
Hybrid campus new starts in the 1st quarter, excluding those in teach outs, were up 20% over the prior year, which exceeded our expectations. There are two main reasons for this continued growth. One, almost all of our active ABSN partners have responded to the younger students interested in ABSN programs by admitting advanced standing students or in the process of making that change. Students with partially completed degrees haven’t accumulated a great deal of debt and are very interested in nursing careers but didn’t have an efficient way to earn their prerequisite science coursework. GCU created the science courses and some other gen ed courses so that they could be delivered online in eight weeks. Students can access these courses from anywhere in the world. There are start opportunities almost every week.
These courses have been made very affordable, are taught by experienced faculty, class sizes are low, and there’s a tremendous amount of academic support, including an artificial intelligence project which provides students 24/7 access to tutoring. Since implementing these courses, we have already enrolled 23,104 students. We have a waterfall report which allows us to know how students are progressing through their pre-req courses and when they will be eligible to start at one of our ABSN sites. Graduation rate of students who successfully enter the ABSN programs is in the mid-80s, and the first-time pass rate on the NCLEX exam is approximately 90%. Nearly all our partners have responded positively to the change needed to serve the advanced standing students. Our goal is to still have 80 locations with our partners, with 40 of the locations being GCU locations.
We opened 5 new sites in the year ended December 31, 2025, closed 2 sites in which we stopped recruiting new students in 2024, and merged 2 sites that were located in the same market, bringing the total number of these sites to 47 as of December 31, 2025. 3 of the 5 new sites were GCU’s, bringing their ABSN location total to 11. We plan to open 1-2 additional sites in the second half of 2026, while we mutually agreed with 1 partner to stop the recruiting of new students and begin teach out at 3 of its sites during the first quarter of 2026.
A couple of sites that were planned to open in the fall of 2026 are more likely to open in early 2027 as we have previously discussed. We are being more selective on new site openings with a focus on the scalability of the market. We are also expanding our programmatic offerings with our hybrid partners by adding a graduate nursing program with 7 specializations with Northeastern University, which started this past fall. A hybrid occupational therapy bridge to master’s program to the already successful St. Kate’s occupational therapy assistant hybrid program, which will begin in the fall of 2026. An online health science degree with Utica University, GCU launched a BS in occupational therapy assistance program and a speech language pathology program in 2025 at its Phoenix West Valley location.
GCU also plans to add a Bachelor of Science in Medical Lab Sciences program in 2026. Adding additional programs at our hybrid locations is an important component to our business plan. We anticipate this momentum will continue, although with the lower number of new site openings and more of our locations getting to capacity, hybrid enrollment growth will slow a bit while the profitability of this pillar will continue to improve. Fourth, the Center for Workforce Development at Grand Canyon University. GCU now has 4 programs in the Center for Workforce Development, including the Pre-Apprenticeship for Electricians, the CNC Machinist Pathway, the Manufacturing Specialist Intensive Pathway, and the Pre-Apprentice Construction General Pathway, and we’ll be rolling out a fifth program, the Manufacturing General Pathway, in the fall of 2026.
These programs are all built in partnership with companies that are experiencing labor shortages in that area and are excited about hiring GCU’s graduates. These programs are either 1 semester or 2 semester programs. 116 students successfully completed the Electrician Pre-Apprenticeship Program in the fall of 2025, with 5 in the Austin, Texas hybrid location. 15 students completed the Manufacturing CNC Machinist Pathway Program in the fall of 2025 cohort, and 29 students completed the Manufacturing Specialist Intensive Program. These students attend school for 20 hours a week and then work in the facility as a paid employee for 20 hours. At the end of the semester, they receive a manufacturing certificate and become eligible for employment in Arizona’s fast-growing manufacturing industry.
Students in GCU’s growing engineering college are getting experience in this manufacturing facility, which is adding to their engineering education. I started out talking about the relevant programs and creative delivery models that GCE has implemented with its 20 partner institutions. In the 7-plus years since GCE has become a service provider, it has helped its partners accomplish the following. In that time, GCE has helped Grand Canyon University graduate 221,436 students. 59,659 in education, including 27,601 first-time teachers at a time when teacher shortages have created a national crisis. 57,412 in nursing and healthcare professions, including 3,723 pre-licensure nurses at a time when there is a huge shortage of nurses.
46,520 in the College of Humanities and Social Sciences, including thousands in counseling and social work, where there are also huge shortages. The College of Business has become one of the largest business schools in America and has produced 38,823 graduates. The College of Science, Engineering, and Technology has grown by 225% and provided 9,739 graduates. The Doctoral College, Honors College, and College of Theology also continue to grow. In addition, GCE has helped its other partners graduate over 15,000 pre-licensure nurses and occupational therapist assistants. The numbers that I’ve cited have all happened in the past 7 years since the GCU GCE transaction and since GCE has become an education services provider.
This is a great example of a futuristic educational model that is flexible, moves fast, and is capable of great scale. All of this has occurred while GCE paid $627 million in federal and state taxes. While state universities and community colleges pull money out of the tax system, GCE has helped produce over 235,000 graduates while pouring millions of dollars into the system. Service revenues was $308.8 million for the first quarter of 2026, an increase of $19.5 million or 6.7% as compared to $289.3 million for the first quarter of 2025.
The increase year-over-year in service revenue was primarily due to an increase in university partner enrollments of 71.1%, including an increase in GCU online enrollments of 8.8% and university partner enrollments at the off-campus classroom and laboratory sites of 18.3%, and one additional day of ground traditional revenue at GCU of $1 million in the quarter as a result of the shift of one day of revenue from the second quarter to the first quarter as compared to last year’s spring start date, partially offset by a slight decrease in revenue per student year-over-year, primarily due to contract modifications with some of our university partners in which our revenue share percentage was reduced in exchange for us no longer reimbursing the partner for certain faculty costs, which had the effect of reducing revenue per student and a slight decline year-over-year in revenue per student for online students due to the continued mix shift to students that have a slightly lower net tuition rate. A slight decline year-over-year in ground students, which generate a higher revenue per student than online students.
Operating income and operating margin for the three months ended March 31st, 2026 was $95.5 million and 30.9% respectively, as compared to $88 million and 30.4% respectively for the same period in 2025. Net income was $75.3 million for the first quarter of 2026. GAAP diluted income per share for the three months ended March 31st, 2026 is $2.80. As adjusted non-GAAP diluted income per share for the three months ended March 31st, 2026 is $2.86, which is $0.08 above the consensus estimates.
With that, I would like to turn it over to Dan Bachus, our CFO, to give a little more color, 2026 first quarter, talk about changes in the income statements, balance sheets, and other items, as well as to discuss the 2026 guidance.
Dan Bachus, Chief Financial Officer, Grand Canyon Education: Thanks, Brian. Included in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC, we have included non-GAAP net income and non-GAAP diluted net income per share for the 3 months ended March 31st, 2026 and 2025. We believe the non-GAAP financial information allows investors to develop a more meaningful understanding of the company’s performance over time. As adjusted non-GAAP diluted income per share for the 3 months ended March 31st, 2026 and 2025 is $2.86 and $2.57 respectively. Service revenue was higher than our expectations in the 1st quarter of 2026, primarily due to higher than expected enrollments and slightly higher than expected revenue per student.
The first quarter operating margin was positively impacted on a year-over-year basis by the higher revenue and the contract modifications, partially offset by additional spend for 2026 partner initiatives. Our effective tax rate for the first quarter of 2026 was 23.5% compared to 21.6% in the first quarter of 2025, and our guidance of 23.4%. The higher than expected effective tax rate is primarily due to state income taxes and a decrease in excess tax benefits of $1.4 million in the first quarter of 2026 as compared to $2.7 million in the first quarter of 2025.
We repurchased 724,408 shares of our common stock in the first quarter of 2026 at a cost of approximately $120.4 million. Another 202,010 shares were repurchased since March 31, 2026. We have $189.7 million remaining available as of today under our share repurchase authorization. The board and the company intend to continue using a significant portion of its cash flows from operations to repurchase its shares. Turning to the balance sheet and cash flows, total unrestricted cash and cash equivalents and investments as of March 31, 2026 were $251.7 million.
GCE CapEx in the first quarter of 2026, including CapEx for new off-campus classroom and laboratory sites, was approximately $8.1 million or 2.6% of service revenue. We anticipate CapEx for 2026 will be between $30 million-$35 million. Last, I would like to provide color on the guidance we have provided in our 8-K filed today. As a reminder, the guidance that we have provided in the outlook section of our 8-K filed today is GAAP net income and diluted income per share, with the components to adjust the GAAP amounts to non-GAAP as adjusted net income and non-GAAP as adjusted diluted income per share. We have updated full year 2026 guidance to include the first quarter revenue and earnings beats.
We are re-affirming our revenue and operating income guidance previously provided for the rest of 2026, while slightly decreasing interest income and decreasing the weighted average share count as we purchase back more of our stock through today than it was planned. As a reminder, revenue continues to be slightly impacted in 2026 due to the modification of the contract for 1 university partner effective January 1st, 2026, in which we’ll no longer be reimbursing the partner for their faculty costs and due to the teach out of 1 partner’s 3 locations. We estimate that these changes will reduce revenue by $4.2 million in 2026. This slightly lowers the revenue growth rate in 2026, but both are long-term positives for the company and will positively impact margins in 2026.
We continue to anticipate online revenue per student will be slightly down year-over-year due to the mix shift to programs that have slightly lower net tuition rates. The year-over-year changes in the start and end dates of the semesters for GCU’s ground traditional campus move $1 million in revenue from the second quarter to the first quarter and $8.3 million in revenue from the third quarter to the fourth quarter in comparison to last year. The change between the third and the fourth quarter is more significant this year than in past years, as GCU’s fall semester for its ground traditional campus begins and ends six days later this year than last. We continue to anticipate that new online enrollments will be up year-over-year in the mid to high single digits during 2026.
As has been previously discussed, new enrollment growth in the second quarter of 2025 was up in the mid-teens over the prior year, and thus mid-single digit growth in the second quarter would be strong growth. Total online enrollment growth continues to be pressured by increasing graduations and a continued decline in re-entries, students returning to school after a break due to the high retention rates. The revenue range assumes that GCU ground enrollment will range from 8,500-8,800 in the summer and be between 24,900 and 25,600 in the fall. The reported ground number continues to include GCU Hybrid, which continues to grow, and Professional Studies students, which we expect to be flat on a year-over-year basis.
Total ground enrollment continues to be impacted by the lower fall 2024 new start and the growing number of graduates year-over-year as a significant number of ground traditional students continue to graduate in less than 4 years. The new and total enrollment growth rate for the hybrid pillar is predicted to grow on a year-over-year basis in the high single digits to mid-teens during each of the 4 quarters of 2026. As has been previously discussed, the hybrid growth rate is being impacted by the fact that we now have 14 locations that are at or near capacity, and thus we will have little to no growth year-over-year in total enrollments at those locations.
From a new enrollment perspective, 22 locations will not have year-over-year growth in new enrollments on a year-over-year basis in the fall. Although 8 locations are not at state authorized capacity, we started the maximum number of students allowed during fall of 2025. The higher than expected new starts in spring 2026 could also have a small impact in new start growth rates at a few of the locations in the fall due to capacity constraints. We remain hopeful that some of these locations will get local regulatory approval to grow in the future, as they currently have wait lists, and we still have a lot of opportunities at the other locations.
On the expense side, we continue to make investments to support our university partners’ growth goals, but continue to anticipate margin expansion in 2026. As has been previously discussed, the online programs primarily that lead to licensure in which GCU is growing at an accelerated rate either cost us more to service than the traditional online programs or are at a lower net tuition rates, which is putting some pressure on margins. We also continue to observe significant increases in technology services and benefit costs. We have some pressure on margins in the first six months of this year as ground traditional enrollment is down year-over-year and in the third quarter as the GCU traditional campus start and end date moves back this year.
As it relates to the hybrid pillar, we will incur additional costs for the new hybrid locations that have opened in the last year or will open in late 2026 or early 2027. We are experiencing increased site-level profitability due to the increasing enrollments. We are estimating that interest income will decline year-over-year in 2026 due to declining cash balances due to more aggressive stock buybacks and a declining interest rate environment. We continue to believe the effective tax rate for the remaining 3 quarters of 2026 will be 24.9%, 24.9%, and 24.3%, with a full year tax rate of 24.4%.
The effective tax rate continues to be impacted by higher state taxes as we continue to add new sites in states outside of Arizona, which have higher state tax rates and other factors, including the decrease year-over-year and the excess tax benefit deduction due to decline in our stock price. These estimates do not assume a contribution in lieu of state income taxes. If one is made, that will increase G&A expense in the third quarter and decrease our effective tax rate in the second half of the year. Our weighted average shares guidance takes into account the significant amount of stock we repurchased in the last few months.
We anticipate continuing to use our excess cash to repurchase shares as the board believes the stock is materially undervalued based on the metrics it uses to evaluate this including the ratio of enterprise value to adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow yield in comparison to other S&P 500 companies. I will now turn the call over to the moderator so that we can answer questions.
Conference Moderator, Moderator: Thank you. At this time, we will conduct the question and answer session. Please limit to 1 question and 1 follow-up. To ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Jeff Silber from BMO Capital Markets. Jeff, your line is now open.
Jeff Silber, Analyst, BMO Capital Markets: Thank you so much. I wanna focus on the first quarter adjusted operating margin beat. It was pretty sizable this quarter. Maybe we can get a little bit color in terms of what drove that, and was there any expense shift timing between the quarters?
Dan Bachus, Chief Financial Officer, Grand Canyon Education: No, not really, expense shift timing, more just the revenue beat, drove that. We are still managing expenses as tight as we can, and investing where management believes we need to invest. Nothing that really moved expenses between the two quarters. It was really just the revenue and the enrollment and thus the revenue beat and just managing expenses.
Jeff Silber, Analyst, BMO Capital Markets: Okay, that’s helpful. Brian, in your prepared remarks, you alluded to some issues that are going on in the industry in terms of the AI impact on lead generation in terms of where they’re sourcing, and I know you don’t do much of that. Can you just talk about, you know, if it’s had any impact on you at all and what you are doing about it, if that’s the case?
Brian Mueller, Chairman and CEO, Grand Canyon Education: No, it’s a very interesting time, obviously. We had long meetings in here with a lot of people, including Google, Initiative Media, which is the largest media buying company in the world, which has been a partner of ours for a long time. It’s just a general move by the population not to depend on an organization’s website for information on the organization. I mean, AI is taking over. People would prefer to hear other people’s opinions before they make decisions versus the organization’s own website. We’ve got the largest advertising agency in the state of Arizona here at GCE. We’ve got a lot of experience and a huge depth of knowledge, great partners.
This has been happening, you know, in the last 12 months, especially accelerating in the last six months. The web leads, which were a huge part of what we did, highest converting leads. Those are shrinking in number, we’re just spending money in other places to replace those leads. You won’t get as good a conversion rate with those other sources, but you get more leads, you can come out at the same place. You just have to understand what’s happening and be able to make that adjustment. Now, for us, there’s a we don’t have as much pressure because of those rapid changes because we’re getting 30% of our starts now from the working directly with partners across the country.
You know, we’re taking lower-level people within healthcare organizations, within school districts, counseling centers, we’re putting them in baccalaureate and master’s programs. Those students is 30% of our new starts, but more than that from a total enrollment standpoint because their retention rates are so high. As we look forward the next 5 years, you know, we need to start moving those numbers to 40%. They’re just really good students. It puts us in a great place with employers who are benefiting from a workforce shortage perspective by being able to elevate people within their own organization. You know, when we talk about margin expansion, historically, you know, that margin expansion has come from the fact that we’ve been able to reduce our cost per start.
If things go as well as we think they might go in the next number of years, and we get margin expansion, it will come from that place. Obviously, there are no guarantees, but we think we are really well-positioned. You know, one of the moves we’re making with that Honors College, very honestly, is that we want that positioned when people go to ChatGPT and other places. We want that highly positioned because it’s such a strong leading indicator of the university, GCU’s, really strong brand growth. The academic credibility of what is happening and what’s gonna happen, we believe we’re gonna get. Everything else that we do is gonna draft behind that from a quality standpoint.
That might be a lot more than you were asking for, but I hope that helps.
Jeff Silber, Analyst, BMO Capital Markets: It does. Thank you so much, Brian.
Brian Mueller, Chairman and CEO, Grand Canyon Education: Yes, thanks.
Conference Moderator, Moderator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Alex Paris from Barrington Research. Alex, your line is now open.
Alex Paris, Analyst, Barrington Research: Thank you. Thanks for taking my questions. Congrats on the strong quarter. I appreciate all the detail and color. Again, just a couple of follow-ups, starting with GCU Ground. You talked a lot about the Honors College and initiatives that you have planned for it. Last quarter, we talked a bit about, and you touched on it in your prepared comments, the change in the marketing strategy at GCU Ground, shifting some expense from reps in the high school salaries to social media and that sort of thing. You had expected that to continue to be an investment area in the first half. Just wondering if that continues to be the case, maybe just an update on the progress there.
Brian Mueller, Chairman and CEO, Grand Canyon Education: No. Thank you for your question. The, we’re continuing to invest dollars to a greater extent than we have in the past in advertising strategies around our Ground Campus. You know, from the standpoint of where we are, re-registrations are up, housing numbers are up, it’s extremely competitive. You know, it’s always been competitive, it’s never been like this. You know, there are universities that are, very honestly, struggling from a financial perspective, and they’re trying to hang on. You know, it’ll be an interesting last three or four months going up to the fall start. In terms of actual students registered, we are up. In terms of students housing, you know, we are up.
We gotta work hard to maintain that, and depending upon where we come in August, a lot of that will depend on how we invest monies in the future, to grow the Ground Campus. You know that from a Ground Campus perspective, the revenue per student is very high as compared to online students. The investment is worth it, and the return to investors is significant if we’re able to continue to make that thing grow. I think the next step in our in our whole plan around the Ground Campus is to increase the academic excellence and the visibility of that through the Honors College.
In addition to what we’re doing from an advertising standpoint, we want for that Honors College to be extremely visible because it’s right in the middle of one of the most dynamic economies in the country. You know, we’re on I-17 in Thirty-Third Avenue in Phoenix, which is right in the middle of 6 million people. It’s a growing economy, growing manufacturing, the growing manufacturing industry from a chip manufacturing perspective because TSMC is here and everything that they’re bringing to this economy.
To come and study in Arizona in a premier Honors College, and graduate in 3 years and have a chance to get employed by some of the top companies in the country is going to be an extremely strong brand builder for the university and a big part of our strategy. We’ll keep you updated.
Dan Bachus, Chief Financial Officer, Grand Canyon Education: We’re running ahead, you’ve gotta, you know, finishing it out is we gotta finish it out over the next three or four months.
Alex Paris, Analyst, Barrington Research: Just to that point, while the enrollment on GCU Ground was down in the first quarter, the guidance at the midpoint that Dan just outlined, calls for modest growth in the summer and in the fall.
Dan Bachus, Chief Financial Officer, Grand Canyon Education: Yes, that’s correct.
Alex Paris, Analyst, Barrington Research: Yeah.
Dan Bachus, Chief Financial Officer, Grand Canyon Education: Yes.
Alex Paris, Analyst, Barrington Research: Okay.
Dan Bachus, Chief Financial Officer, Grand Canyon Education: we’re very
Alex Paris, Analyst, Barrington Research: And then-
Dan Bachus, Chief Financial Officer, Grand Canyon Education: We’re very excited about the summer trends. That’s looking really good. As Brian said, you know, we still have a few months to go, but we’re optimistic about where fall looks at the moment.
Alex Paris, Analyst, Barrington Research: Great. Thank you on that. Then one other question is really a follow-up from the third quarter conference call. I just thought it’d be reasonable time to get an update on what’s going on with nursing. We talked about it on the third quarter call because a large competitor talked about declines in post-licensure nursing and said that it was really self-inflicted and execution issues. You guys said that, Well, you guys had said that it’s growing slower than the average of your other 350 programs. Just wondering what’s going on there. Has there been any change in enrollment in post-licensure nursing? ’Cause nursing is obviously one of the bigger verticals.
Dan Bachus, Chief Financial Officer, Grand Canyon Education: Actually, Brian can get in more details, but we’ve seen a re-acceleration in RN to BSN rates, so it had a really good quarter. Yes, on the pre-licensure, pre-licensure continues to do very well. Post-licensure, just because of the competitiveness of that market has been growing, but growing at a kind of a low single-digit rate. Although that’s accelerated of late and is actually one of the reasons that we’re getting a little bit of pressure on the revenue per student side. Anything to add to that, Brian?
Brian Mueller, Chairman and CEO, Grand Canyon Education: We have made some adjustments in both the RN to BSN and MSN, you know, in our product, in our pricing, in our placement, in all of that. We’re gonna be very successful in that area the next three or four years. The growth in this quarter’s been good, and we expect that to continue.
Dan Bachus, Chief Financial Officer, Grand Canyon Education: That’s great. I’m glad I asked. That’s all I had for now. Thank you. We have reached the end of our first quarter conference call. We appreciate your time and interest in Grand Canyon Education. If you still have any questions, please contact myself, Daniel E. Bachus. Thank you for your time.
Conference Moderator, Moderator: Thank you for your participation in today’s conference. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect.