Grupo Financiero Galicia Q4 2025 Earnings Call - Asset-quality spike sinks results; 2026 recovery hinges on credit cycle and inflation
Summary
Grupo Financiero Galicia closed 2025 with a sharply weaker bottom line after a surge in retail delinquencies and heavy provisioning. Net income for the year was ARS 196 billion, down 91% year over year, with a Q4 net loss of ARS 84 billion driven by Banco Galicia and Naranja X losses despite profits at the asset management and insurance units. Management says the bank kept liquidity and capital comfortably above regulatory requirements, but profitability was crushed by credit costs and one-off integration charges from the HSBC deal.
Looking to 2026, management is sticking to a recovery script: 25% loan growth, deposits up 15 to 20%, ROE in the low double digits (10 to 11%) and a path for cost of risk to fall toward 8% by year end. Those targets rest on a peak in NPLs in March 2026 and an improving macro where inflation decelerates. The caveats are clear: if inflation or the macro surprise to the upside, the recovery will be delayed and profits compressed further.
Key Takeaways
- 2025 full-year net income ARS 196 billion, down 91% year over year; return on average assets 0.4% and ROE 2.5% (excluding integration expenses net result would be ARS 333 billion and ROE ~4.2%).
- Q4 2025 produced a net loss of ARS 84 billion; Banco Galicia posted an ARS 104 billion loss in the quarter and Naranja X an ARS 49 billion loss, partly offset by Galicia Asset Management and Galicia Seguros profits.
- Retail asset quality deterioration was the main culprit: retail NPLs jumped to 14.3% from 3.2% at year-end 2024; overall NPLs rose to 6.9% from 5.8% quarter over quarter.
- Provision expense surged, up 220% year over year and 42% quarter over quarter; cost of risk spiked to about 12.5% in Q4 for the bank, and management expects cost of risk to fall to ~8% by end-2026.
- Management expects NPLs to peak in March 2026 and provisioning charges to start declining in 1Q 2026, with Naranja X improving more slowly than the bank.
- Financial margin partly recovered in Q4 but was hit in 2025 by reserve requirement changes and a sharp rise in interest rates during the political episode; 2026 bank margin guidance ~16.4% on average (start 17-18% and end ~16%).
- Liquidity and capital are strong: deposits ARS 26 trillion (+4% q/q), liquid assets cover 93.2% of transactional deposits and 59.4% of total deposits, total regulatory capital ratio 25.2% and Tier 1 25.1%.
- Loan and deposit growth in 2025 was large in nominal terms: peso loans ARS 87.6 trillion (+73% y/y), dollar loans $18.2 billion (+83.6% y/y), private sector peso deposits ARS 104.1 trillion (+40.1% y/y). 2026 guidance: loans +25%, deposits +15-20% (peso ≈20%, dollar ≈15%).
- HSBC acquisition integration costs were a material drag; Banco Galicia would have reported an ARS 60 billion profit for the year without those non-recurring charges.
- Cost control and efficiency: management expects administrative expenses to fall roughly 10-11% y/y excluding one-offs and aims for an efficiency ratio below 40% in 2026.
- Market share softened slightly: loan market share 14.3% (-50 bps q/q), deposit share 16.2% (-20 bps q/q) as the bank slows consumer growth to digest asset-quality stress.
- Strategic tilt to commercial lending in 2026, with focus on agribusiness, oil and gas, mining and automotive supply chains; management expects commercial to outpace consumer growth, especially in H2.
- Dividend proposal of ARS 190 billion in pesos, of which ARS 40 billion requires central bank approval.
- Macroeconomic backdrop is mixed: 2025 inflation 31.5% (monthly acceleration in H2 and January 2026 monthly inflation ~2.9%), exchange rate depreciation ~29.5% y/y in Dec 2025; management now models 2026 inflation ~23% and GDP growth ~3.7%.
- Key risk/reward is clear: capital and liquidity buy time, but profitability recovery is conditional on the credit cycle, falling inflation and macro improvement; management is not banking on regulatory relief and will be cautious on dollar lending to non-dollar earners.
Full Transcript
Moderator, Conference Moderator: Looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. federal securities laws and are subject to risk and uncertainty that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed. Investors should be aware of events related to the macroeconomic scenario, the financial industry, and other factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the respective forward-looking statements. Now, I will turn the conference over to Mr. Pablo Firvida, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.
Pablo Firvida, Head of Investor Relations, Grupo Financiero Galicia: Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I will make a short introduction, and then, Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro, our CFO, will have some words. Latest figures indicate that Argentina’s economy grew by 4.4% on average during 2025, and the primary surplus stood at 1.4% of GDP, with an overall fiscal result of 0.2% of GDP. The National Consumer Price Index recorded a 7.9% increase during the fourth quarter of 2025. Inflation for the year stood at 31.5%, significantly decelerating from the 117.8% recorded in 2024 and reaching its lowest level in eight years.
However, monthly inflation accelerated during the second half of the year and displayed a 2.8% increase in December after having reached lows of 1.5% in May and 1.6% in June. In January 2026, monthly inflation rose to 2.9%, while the year-on-year rate accelerated to 32.4%. On the monetary side, the central bank expanded the monetary base by ARS 0.7 trillion in the fourth quarter and by ARS 13.2 trillion over the year, bringing the year-on-year increase to 44.5% as of the end of 2025. In December 2025, the exchange rate averaged ARS 1,448 per dollar, reflecting a 29.5% year-on-year depreciation.
As of January 1, 2026, both the floor and the ceiling of the exchange rate band began to adjust monthly in line with the latest available monthly inflation data. In December 2025, the average rate on peso-denominated private sector time deposits for up to 59 days stood at 26.6%, 6.4 percentage points below the December 2024 average. Private sector deposits in pesos averaged ARS 104.1 trillion in December, increasing by 10.6% during the quarter and 40.1% in the last 12 months. Time deposits rose 4.3% during the quarter and 44.8% in the year. Peso-denominated transactional deposits increased 18.3% during the fourth quarter and 35.2% in year-over-year terms.
Private sector dollar-denominated deposits amounted to $36.4 billion in December 2025, increasing 11.7% during the quarter and 14.6% in the last 12 months. Peso-denominated loans to the private sector averaged ARS 87.6 trillion in December, showing a 10.4% quarterly increase and a 73% year-over-year rise. Private sector dollar-denominated loans amounted to $18.2 billion, recording a 0.5% quarterly decrease and an 83.6% annual increase. Turning now to Grupo Galicia, net income for 2025 amounted to ARS 196 billion, 91% lower than in the previous year, which represented a 0.4% return on average assets and a 2.5% return on average shareholders’ equity.
Excluding integration expenses, the result would have been ARS 333 billion and the ROE 4.2%. The result was mainly due to profits from Galicia Asset Management for ARS 127 billion, from Naranja X for ARS 59 billion, and from Galicia Seguros for ARS 40 billion, partially offset by a ARS 70 billion loss from Banco Galicia. Going to the fourth quarter, net loss amounted to ARS 84 billion as the improvement of the financial margin was more than offset by the impact of asset quality deterioration. In the quarter, Banco Galicia recorded a ARS 104 billion loss, Naranja X a ARS 49 billion loss, while Galicia Asset Management and Galicia Seguros posted profits for ARS 36 billion and ARS 27 billion respectively.
This loss represented a -0.7% annualized return on average assets and a -4.3% return on average shareholders’ equity. The net result from Banco Galicia for the fiscal year was negatively affected by the non-recurring expenses related to a merger with HSBC, without which it would have reported a ARS 60 billion profit. During the year, the financial margin was negatively affected by changes in reserve requirement regulations and by a significant increase in interest rate, which had an impact on the cost of funding. At the same time, loan loss provisions increased significantly compared to 2024, mainly due to the increase in the retail loan portfolio delinquency rates.
The most relevant factors for the deterioration of asset quality were the abrupt increase in interest rate in real terms, the loss of purchasing power of customers, and the disappearance of the dilution effect on installments related to a lower level of inflation. During the quarter, the bank reported a ARS 105 billion loss, decreasing 6% as compared to the loss of the third quarter. Operating income increased, reaching ARS 164 billion, up from the ARS 6 billion recorded in the previous quarter due to a higher net operating income, driven by improvement of financial margin, offset by higher loan loss provisions, which still showed an upward trend. Average interest earning assets reached ARS 25 trillion, 3% higher than in the previous quarter, primarily due to the increase of the average volume of dollar-denominated loans, which grew 9%.
In the same period, its yield increased 130 basis points, reaching 31.4%, 39.7% in the ARS portfolio and 8% in the $ portfolio. Interest-bearing liabilities increased 4% from September 2025, amounting to ARS 22 trillion, primarily due to an increase of the $ denominated deposits. During this period, its cost decreased 220 basis points to 14.3%. Net interest income increased 23% when compared to the third quarter because of a 7% increase in interest income and of a 9% decrease of interest expenses. Net fee income increased 4% from the previous quarter, mainly stood out the fees related with bundles of products and the ones of deposit accounts. Net income from financial instruments decreased 3%.
Gains from FX quotation difference were 29% higher from the previous quarter, including the result from foreign currency trading, and other operating income decreased 8% in the quarter. Provision for loan losses increased 42% in the quarter and 220% when compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Deterioration that was mainly focused in the retail portfolio, in which NPLs rose to 14.3%, up from 3.2% recorded at the end of the previous year, particularly affecting personal loans and credit card financing. Personal expenses reached ARS 178 billion and were 50% lower than in the previous quarter, as during that period, losses for ARS 181 billion were recorded due to a restructuring plan following the acquisition of HSBC business in Argentina.
Administrative expenses were 12% higher than in the previous quarter due to a 13% increase of taxes and to a 23% increase in expenses for maintenance and repairment of goods and IT. Other operating expenses increased 10%, mainly due to a 68% higher charge for other provisions. The income tax charge was positive, as the pre-tax net income was a loss. The bank’s financing to the private sector reached ARS 21 trillion at the end of the quarter, down 2% in the quarter, with peso financing decreasing 1% and dollar-denominated financing down 5%. Deposits reached ARS 26 trillion, 4% higher than a quarter before, mainly due to a 6% increase in dollar-denominated deposits.
The bank’s estimated market share of loans to the private sector was 14.3%, 50 basis points lower than at the end of the previous quarter, and the market share of deposits from the private sector was 16.2%, 20 basis points lower than in the third quarter of 2025. The bank’s liquid assets represented 93.2% of transactional deposits and 59.4% of total deposits, similar levels to those of the previous quarter. As regards asset quality, the ratio of non-performing loans to total financing ended the quarter at 6.9%, recording a 110 basis points deterioration as compared to the 5.8% of the third quarter. As I mentioned before, the deterioration is mainly related to the personal loans and credit card financing portfolios.
At the same time, the coverage with allowances reached 97.4%, down from the 101.5% recorded a quarter ago. As of the end of December 2025, the bank’s total regulatory capital ratio reached 25.2%, increasing 310 basic points from the end of the third quarter, while the Tier 1 ratio was 25.1%, up 330 basic points during the same period. In summary, during the fourth quarter-Financial margin partially recovered and efficiency improved, but still, asset quality and the monetary loss due to inflation had a significant impact on profitability. Despite this, Grupo Financiero Galicia was able to keep liquidity and solvency metrics at healthy levels, and we expect an improvement in profitability during 2026. Now, Gonzalo Fernández Covaro will make some additional remarks. Thank you.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, Chief Financial Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia: Thank you, Pablo. Hi, everyone. Well, looking ahead, I mean, we believe Argentina is entering in a phase of stability, a more predictable policy framework, and renewal potential for great growth. You know, as normalization continues and structural reforms advance, the banking system is expected to play a central role in this, in supporting investment, productive activity, and the long-term economic development. We see a positive trends in for the future for the country. Talking about 2026 specifically, we see inflation a bit higher than our first estimation, now at 23%, and GDP growing at 3.7%. We’re keeping our projections of 25% loan growth for the year, but we see lower, you know, pace at the first half and accelerating in the second half.
That could put some pressure to our revenues. As we said, in prior calls, we expect NPLs in the bank to have their peak in March 2026. During March to be the peak. The cost of risks, we are seeing that we already had the peak in the fourth quarter of 2025, and we started to see credit losses charges to the P&L to decrease in the first quarter of 2026 in the bank. In Naranja X, same trend but with some lower pace, but also same trend. We expect to have the benefit of the restructuring made last year after the HSBC acquisition, and to continue to improve our efficiency ratios and to capture those positive effects during 2026.
We are keeping our ROE guidance for 2026 in the low double digits range, I would say between 10% and 11%, going from low to high during the year. Regarding dividend payments, we are proposing a payment of ARS 190 billion with pesos, which ARS 40 billion are subject to central bank approval as usual. With that, I mean, we are open for questions.
Moderator, Conference Moderator: We are going to start the questions and answers section for investors and analysts. If you wish to ask a question, please press the button Reaction and then click on Raise Hand. If your question has already been answered, you can leave the queue by clicking on Put Hand Down. Our first question is from Mr. Brian Flores with Citi. Mr. Brian, your microphone is on.
Brian Flores, Analyst, Citi: Hi, team, Gonzalo, Pablo, Etienne. Thank you for the opportunity. Gonzalo, just a quick follow-up on the 2026 guidance. Basically, you’re maintaining around 25% real year-over-year growth. In deposits, should it be a bit lower? I think the last notion you provided was around 20%. Just wanted to confirm if these ranges are still valid.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, Chief Financial Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia: Yeah, yeah. I would say deposit between 15 and 20, but close and not material changes, I would say.
Brian Flores, Analyst, Citi: Okay, perfect. Something that caught our attention here is that we saw a strong maybe revision of the growth strategy, right? Because you were growing very fast in the first three quarters, and you slowed down significantly in the last quarter. Just wanted to check if you have changed your focus on growth, if we should see maybe Galicia losing a bit of market share in 2026 as this asset quality is digested, or do you think you will defend and keep it steady during 2026?
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, Chief Financial Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia: No. I mean, our goal is to keep market share and also increase it, try to increase it. I would say that, maybe at a lower pacing, as I said before, in the first half and accelerating in the second half. I mean, the last quarter, yeah. I mean, you saw mainly a slower pace in the consumer lending. We still are in the same, in the same scenario in the first quarter. You know, until we see that is the right time to accelerate again, that will be, we assume, later in the quarters. In the whole year, we expect really to defend market share and to grow market share.
In terms of commercial, we have lending. We have been seeing some lower demand from customer that then in there, you know, as you know, our NPLs in the commercial portfolio, in the wholesale portfolio are okay. We are, you know, working with our customers and trying to accelerate commercial lending where we see also a lot of opportunities. To summarize the answer, the idea is to continue protecting, defending market share and. As we said, we see lower growth in the first half, I would say, than higher growth in the second half of the year.
Brian Flores, Analyst, Citi: Thank you, Gonzalo. If I may, just a very quick follow-up. In terms of potential catalysts, do you think the recovery could come more from the macro filtering to the micro, or do you think regulatory?
Etienne, Executive, Grupo Financiero Galicia: This is more on the regulatory side, than on the economic side.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, Chief Financial Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia: I would say that the macro should start, you know, accelerating, impacting the micro. That’s something that we haven’t seen maybe last year a lot. We are expecting that the macro... I mean, yeah, I think it’s a combination. We of course expect the macro to start accelerating the micro at some point, and we believe that the government should take measures to do that because it’s what the country needs. From regulatory side, I mean, we don’t know what will happen, we are not betting on changes on the regulatory side. Of course, at some point, they may come, that’s something that, you know, we cannot manage, so we are not betting on that one.
Etienne, Executive, Grupo Financiero Galicia: Thank you, team.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, Chief Financial Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia: Thank you.
Moderator, Conference Moderator: Our next question comes from Tito Labarta with Goldman Sachs. Your microphone is open.
Tito Labarta, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Hi. Good morning. Thank you for the call and taking my question. Yeah, my question, you mentioned already provisioning levels should begin to come down in 1Q, although it’s, you know, this quarter was a bit higher than expected, and we’re still seeing that deterioration in asset quality. I guess, how quickly can it come down? You know, what does give you that comfort that, you know, you maintain the loan growth guidance but that, you know, credit quality should improve sufficiently to be able to grow at a faster pace in the second half of the year? Is there anything that you need to see, or you think it’s just getting through the cycle another quarter or two and things should get better, or any other risk to that?
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, Chief Financial Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia: I mean, of course, that’s something that we are assessing and monitoring. Anyway, still 25% is lower than the pace that we have been becoming in the last year. It’s a deceleration from where we were coming. It’s not that we, you know, keeping the growth of the prior years. I mean, we think that it’s part of the cycle, as you said. We are starting, of course, to focus in different scores and different segments than the... That’s where we’re focusing so far our growth, and that’s starting to, you know, to show.
Of course, it’s lower than what we want, than what happened in the first half of last year. We believe that 2 things. First, the cycle is going, is passing. Also, as I said to Brian before, we believe that at some point, the economy, the growth in the economy should start, you know, impacting the micro, and we should start seeing, you know, activity to rebound in different sectors. We should see, not in every sector, but we of course are monitoring, you know, niches of customers and groups of customers where we’ll focus. We believe that that should come.
Of course, that if the economy doesn’t impact the micro, and then we don’t see growth in the impacting the activity, well, of course that that would be more difficult. We expect that that should happen, and that’s where we are seeing the growth. That’s why we are maintaining the growth.
Tito Labarta, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Okay. No, that’s helpful. Thank you. Just on the cost of risk, right? ’Cause it was a little bit elevated compared to the last quarter, and you said it should, I guess, begin to improve already in 1Q. How can you get back to the low double digits, high single digits maybe by the end of the year? Just sort of what kind of magnitude of improvement should we expect from here on the cost of risk?
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, Chief Financial Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia: At cost of risk, we are seeing to end the year in 8%, I would say for the 12 months of the year of 2026. The last quarter was... I’m talking about the bank. Last quarter was 12.5%. We are expecting that, the year was like 10.5% this year. Sorry, 2025 full year, 12.5% the last quarter, which is the highest, we expect to end 2026 in 8%. That would be the projection we are managing. We started to see that in the... We made some updates, you know, of our models, the variables as you know you need to do every year. In the fourth quarter, that contributed also in the growth of the charges.
That’s done, and we expect that the next update that we need to be making by the end of this year won’t be increasing charges. That also explains the peak on the last quarter.
Tito Labarta, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Okay. That’s great. That’s very clear. Thank you.
Moderator, Conference Moderator: Our next question comes from Pedro Offenhenden with Latin Securities. Your microphone is open.
Etienne, Executive, Grupo Financiero Galicia: Hello, Gonzalo, Pablo, Etienne. Thank you for taking my question. Wanted to ask on cost, should we expect some restructuring or acquisition or integration cost throughout the year, or the one-offs are largely behind that?
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, Chief Financial Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia: Hello. No, largely one-off are largely behind, as you said. We’ll continue, of course, you know, looking for the right size of the organization and trying to make our organization more efficient. We may see some things here and there, but not nothing material or that will be treated as one-off as last year. From now on, everything we do is part of our normal operations, we won’t have any big impact like the ones we had last year.
Pedro Offenhenden, Analyst, Latin Securities: Okay, thank you. Do you have some target on efficiency or administrative expenses growth for the year?
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, Chief Financial Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia: I mean, we expected to see a reduction of around 10%-11% year-over-year, excluding the one-off of last year, no? If you don’t see the one-off of last year, the reduction will be higher. Excluding the one-off in the expense line of last year, we see a reduction of around 10%-11% year-over-year, and we see efficiency a bit below 40% for the year.
Pedro Offenhenden, Analyst, Latin Securities: Okay. Super clear. Thank you.
Moderator, Conference Moderator: Our next question comes from Yuri Fernandes with JPMorgan. Your microphone is open.
Yuri Fernandes, Analyst, JPMorgan: Thank you all. Very briefly on margins, if you can help us understand a little bit the trajectory, because I guess the risk-adjusted message is clear, right? This was likely the peak and NPLs still could iterate a little bit in the first quarter, but the cost of risk is lower. I’d like to understand the margins, because if your cost of risk improves, maybe we could see, you know, better risk-adjusted NIMs this year. Maybe just asking, could you see NIMs more stable or not? Like, what is the view given the mix shift towards commercial lending? My second question is regarding, I feel like there are two big debates in Argentina, right?
One is the ROE recovery, the second one is growth, right? Like, when growth will pick up. Like, would we see more than 20% real growth or not? How confident are you on those twos? You know, like, if you were to pick just one for 2026, are you more comfortable that ROEs, they should recover to more normalized level, or are you more comfortable with growth? Thank you.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, Chief Financial Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia: Okay. Let’s go. I think the first question was NIMs. I mean, we see, as you know, last four quarter, we saw in December NIMs recuperating. Remember that October, November, we are still recoping from the higher, the spike in interest rates of the elections period. For the year, we see around 16.5% the margins for the bank. Total margin for the bank, 16.4%. Maybe starting a bit higher, around 17%, 18%, and ending in 16% year-end data. On average for the year, with the mix we are expecting, we see margins around 16.4% for the year.
I mean, talking about growth and ROEs, I mean, I would say that we are determined to protect our share in the market. We are focusing a lot in... I mean, it’s difficult to answer which the ones are more sure in an economy that is still recouping and that we still depend on the economy evolution for the growth, of course. I mean, we need the economy to growth as expected, and that the macro impacts the micro, as we were saying before, and that families salaries in real terms starts to recoup, which we expect that to happen, but it’s something that we depend, so it cannot be guaranteed.
I would say that our guidance is we maintain the guidance because we believe we can achieve both. Of course, we depend on the how the economy evolves and not having any surprise like we have, for example, last year in the third quarter with the interest rate spike or stuff like that. I would say that still it will depends on inflation. Remember that in inflation accounting for Argentine banks is a big thing. The lower the inflation comes, and interest rates goes down, I would say that in relative terms, the higher the impact is when we compare with other banks in the region, for example, no?
At some point, we may end with an inflation of 15% or 12% and still booking inflation accounting, where other country with 8% inflation are not booking it. If you see, it’s a big portion of our P&L. At some point, when that disappear, I would say that hopefully in 2028, that will help the Argentine financial system to improve ROEs significantly. On top of that, I would say that we can get to ROE levels above 15% next year. Low double digits this year, but including inflation accounting, we can achieve above 15% next year.
After 2028, without inflation accounting, I would say that the consolidation of the, of the higher ROEs will be easier and more stable for the banks in Argentina, because you won’t have that drag on the inflation accounting that, as you know, it’s a, it’s a big burden for us. In summary, I would say that we think that we can maintain both, but of course, in both cases, we depend on how the economy continues, also in the growth, in the top line, but also in the NPLs and the cost of risk that, of course, we are counting this to continue to improve because we see the economic growing and the families with enough disposable income, et cetera, et cetera.
Yuri Fernandes, Analyst, JPMorgan: No, super, super clear. If I may just on the growth, just to touch on deposits. I think the guidance is 15%-20%, right? Can you break down USD and ARS on this? I don’t know, like we have another tax kind of flexibilization, right? Like the USD under the mattress kind of debate. Can this be helpful for deposits to grow this year? Just checking if funding could be, you know, another point of this equation for growth. Thank you.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, Chief Financial Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia: Yeah. Regarding the dollar deposit growth, we may see something with this change in the legislation. We don’t expect to be as high as the prior effect that we had with the tax amnesty that we have, you know, between last year and the year before. Some effect it may have. Remember that today our dollar deposits are almost half of our deposits. Our goal of course, is to get more profits out of the dollar, so we are seeing how to, you know, get more margins on those. I mean, trying to increase the dollar lending. As you know, we have some restrictions in terms of who we can lend, but that’s something that we are focusing a lot because it’s increased.
I’m not sure if you remember the growth divided by dollar deposits and peso deposits.
Pablo Firvida, Head of Investor Relations, Grupo Financiero Galicia: It was basically we concentrated in the peso one, around 20%. Dollars is more sensitive to political environment, this type of legislation, as you said. As we are not really making a good profit on dollar deposits, we really don’t pay that much attention in a way, no. We forecast more the peso finance, financing and funding more than the dollar one that perhaps is also, we cannot manage it as much as the peso funding. The peso was 20%. The dollar, I think it was something like 15%, but take it as a bulk number.
Yuri Fernandes, Analyst, JPMorgan: Oh, super clear. Thank you very much for the clarifications.
Pablo Firvida, Head of Investor Relations, Grupo Financiero Galicia: Mm-hmm.
Moderator, Conference Moderator: Our next question comes from Mario Estrella with Itaú. Your microphone is open.
Mario Estrella, Analyst, Itaú: Hi. Thank you for taking the question. Well, I guess you already answered, I mean, with the, I mean, the evolution for the next quarters. I believe, well, the next quarter is gonna be relatively better than 2025, going from lower rates to higher as we move towards the end of the year, right? I understood that the drivers for that of course are gonna be, you know, less pressure on the cost of risk. Because I mean, the full quarter results, I mean, in terms of NII, I believe they weren’t, you know... actually they were not that bad, I would say.
My question is, I mean, with the inflation trend that we’ve seen, you know, the first quarter was, you know, more inflationary than expected. I mean, what are the downside risks that you see for your guidance if inflation, you know, keeps, you know, surprising in the output, right? You know, taking into account, you know, that monetary correction loss that, you know, that the full quarter was actually higher than the third one, right? That kind of shows you the potential downside risk that we can see from much inflation, from more inflation, right?
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, Chief Financial Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia: Yeah. I mean, the downside of course as you just mentioned, is more inflation. That of course affects our balance sheet. That’s, that could be if inflation is higher than expected, that could be a downside. I would say that we are, you know, focusing all our efforts in improving the cost of risk, you know. It’s as you can see easily from our results, margins are okay. I mean, costs are okay. I mean, efficiency, but of course that the thing that is, you know, putting some sticks in the wheel for profitability is the cost of risk. That’s the main focus we have. I mean, and that’s of course for the good and for the bad.
I mean, we have a lot of room for improvement there, but also if the improvement is lower than. We will see an improvement. I mean, that. Well, we cannot guarantee anything, you know, but my point is we are seeing the improvement. I would say that the risk could be that the improvement is at a lower pace than expected, and that could impact results, you know. Not getting the improvements in as fast as we expect during the year, I would say that that could be a downward risk that we’re facing.
We, so far, January, we came where we’re expecting, but of course the year is long and we depend on a lot of things on how economy evolves, et cetera, et cetera, that I mentioned before. On the other hand, the top line is important. I mean, if even though margins are still healthy, we depend of course in growth and in growing the top line and of course that if we don’t see the demand of lending because the economy has any deceleration or whatever, well, that could also, I would say that both, those two could be downwards risks. It’s not our base case. We are expecting that the economy should help on that. Those two are downward risk.
In the cost side, I think we are okay. We have done a good job in restructuring, as you know, last year, you know, more than 2,000 people from the HSBC acquisition. We continue to look for more alternative to continue improve efficiency. We continue in that work to always find and adjust the right sizing of the organization. I think those are more predictable or manageable by us. The other two top line and NPLs of cost of risk, in our base case, those should come as expected. Of course, if we have different, you know, evolution of the economy and also, as we were discussing before, how the macro impacts in the micro, we start.
We need to start seeing that the activity, you know, in more sectors, moves faster. That could be a downwards risk, of course.
Mario Estrella, Analyst, Itaú: Yeah. That’s very helpful. Thank you. I understood that the ROE evolution for this year would be something around high single digits and for the 2027, something around 15%, right? I mean, based on improvement in asset quality, right? Is that right?
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, Chief Financial Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia: Yeah, yeah. Yeah, this year we’re saying low double digits or as you know, or high single. It’s close also. Yeah, you’re on the moon, right, but the idea is between 10, 11 this year, and next year around 15 or above. To, you know, stabilize those in 2028 without inflation accounting. What... You are on the spot what you just described, yeah.
Mario Estrella, Analyst, Itaú: Okay. Thank you. Thank you so much, guys.
Moderator, Conference Moderator: Our next question comes from Bruno Kenji with UBS. Your microphone is open.
Bruno Kenji, Analyst, UBS: Hi. Thank you for taking my question. It would be a follow-up regarding the recovery that you expected for results on next this year. When we look to Naranja X and lower ROE levels that we saw in those fourth quarter results, should the recovery on the metrics such as NPL and cost of risk be on the same pace of the bank, or it could have a little delay in terms of the recovery and if that also reflects on the ROEs?
Do you think that there might be a lower acceleration of loans considering the portfolio of Naranja X for the first half, and then an opportunity to have a quicker recovery in second quarter if the economies have some space for personal loans and retail, and when we compare to the bank? Thank you.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, Chief Financial Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia: I would say that the We’re seeing improvements in business in Naranja, but at a lower pace than the bank, you know, that’s what we are seeing. Still expects also improving during the year. The scenario, the growth scenario is similar to the bank. We are seeing also higher growth in the second half. As you know, we still are stabilizing the portfolio in Naranja, which is of course 100% consumer, so we don’t have a commercial portfolio to go there. We are growing, of course, selectively growing, but at a lower pace during the first months of the year. We expect us in the bank to, you know, regain as we stabilize the portfolio, regain the growth, the faster growth.
We will growth of course, but the faster growth, closer to the midterm of the year or something like that, yeah.
Bruno Kenji, Analyst, UBS: Super clear. Thank you.
Moderator, Conference Moderator: Our next question is from Santiago Petri with Franklin Templeton. Your microphone is open.
Mario Estrella, Analyst, Itaú0: Can you hear me?
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, Chief Financial Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia: Yeah.
Mario Estrella, Analyst, Itaú0: Okay. Thank you. Hi, guys, for the presentation. Can you help us understand in which segments are you expecting to grow this year, this 20%, 25%? Is it commercial, consumer? Within commercial, which sector do you see that you can lend to?
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, Chief Financial Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia: I mean, we are growing. I mean, I would say that, we were growing in the first half. Today the mix is more 45 consumer, 55 companies, the total in the bank, our mix. I would say the first half we are focusing a bit more in commercial. Maybe, you know, by the end of the year we will maybe, you know, 60/40. This year we may see is more growth in the commercial than the consumer, but of course we are growing. We are going to grow both portfolio, but more towards the commercial portfolio mainly because in the first half we are where we are lending at a higher pace than in the consumer side as I said before.
In the commercial portfolio, of course, we are picking, you know, segments, I mean, that are less affected or not affected by the, you know, the change in the economics or the imports opening and everything. We know that is suffering. We are strong, and we are focusing a lot in the agribusiness. As you know, we are one of the main banks in that sector, and we continue to do that. Our expectation is this year to continue strongly there. We are also, you know, lending in the oil and gas sector, and not just the big loans, but because you know, local bank doesn’t have the balance sheet, but also all the supply chain and all the, you know, value chain in oil and gas.
In mining, we are also making, you know, deals with, you know, supply chain in that sector. We see, we also see the automotive industry doing okay, so we are also, you know, focusing on that and part of the value chain. You know, We divided our wholesale operations in verticals. You know, We have oil and gas, we have automotive, we have agribusiness, and we are going through all the value chains. We see commerce, you know, retail commerce that at some point, some sectors, not doing that good, so, you know, we are, you know, not growing in those ones.
We are doing a very, you know, you know, good and deep analysis in which sectors we believe that are going to be the winners in this, in these changes that the economy is doing or at least in this transition. The sectors I mentioned are ones that we see growth, and there are others like, you know, technologicals and a lot of SMEs that, you know, do services, provide services that we see them strong, that we are also, you know, helping them in the growth path. We see room for growth in the commercial portfolio. Of course that, as you know, there are sectors that are not doing good, and we are, we have them very clear, and we are not growing in those ones.
Mario Estrella, Analyst, Itaú0: Excellent. Thanks. A follow-up if I may. There are some conversations or I don’t know how to name it, about the possibility of banks expanding their U.S. dollar lending to non-U.S. dollar revenue-generating entities. It is something that you see with good eyes? Are you comfortable with this changing in regulation?
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, Chief Financial Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia: I mean, two things. Regulation could change, then we’ll see if we apply it or we use it or not. I mean, I would say that for us that would be on a very cautious way. We don’t believe that going massive in lending dollars to non-dollar producer will be something safe. Of course that would be more focused in the commercial side, the wholesale side. If we have big local companies that are very strong or international, but big companies that even though they are not dollar producer, we see that they could bear a devaluation or whatever, that will be on a case-by-case basis. But no, not...
We are not seeing anything massive that we will start lending massively if the regulation change massively to non-dollar producers. My answer would be, we will evaluate it cautiously and do it on a case-by-case basis, but nothing massive. At least it’s what we are seeing now, this year, with the how the economy is evolving in the future. If Argentina start being more, you know, dollarized or how the dollar start being more important in the daily trading, well, we may change our mind. So far, our first reaction is that if this happen, we will do it on a selective basis and cautiously basis.
Mario Estrella, Analyst, Itaú0: That’s fair. Thanks. Tony back.
Moderator, Conference Moderator: The questions and answer section is over. We would like to hand the floor back to Pablo Firvida for the company’s final remarks.
Pablo Firvida, Head of Investor Relations, Grupo Financiero Galicia: Okay. Thank you, everybody, for attending this call. As always, we are available if you have any further questions. Good morning and good afternoon. Bye-bye.
Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, Chief Financial Officer, Grupo Financiero Galicia: Bye-bye.
Moderator, Conference Moderator: Grupo Financiero Galicia conference is now closed. We thank you for all participation and wish you a nice day