Connection Q1 2026 Earnings Call - Record Backlog Driven by AI Adoption and Supply Chain Constraints

Josh, Conference Call Coordinator, Connection: Good afternoon, and welcome to the first quarter 2026 Connection earnings conference call. My name is Josh, and I will be the coordinator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference call is the property of Connection and may not be recorded or rebroadcast without specific permission from the company. On the call today are Tim McGrath, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Tom Baker, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to the company.

Samantha, Legal/Compliance Officer, Connection: Thanks, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. I will now read our cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements. Any statements or references made during the conference call that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. Various remarks that management may make about the company’s future expectations, plans, and prospects constitute forward-looking statements for purposes of the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of the company’s annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31st, 2025, which is on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission, as well as in other documents that the company files with the commission from time to time.

In addition, any forward-looking statements represent management’s view as of today and should not be relied upon as representing views as of any subsequent date. While the company may elect to update forward-looking statements at some point in the future, the company specifically disclaims any obligation to do so other than as required by law, even if estimates change. Therefore, you should not rely on these forward-looking statements as representing management’s views as of any date subsequent to today. During this call, non-GAAP financial measures will be discussed. A reconciliation between any non-GAAP financial measure discussed and its most directly comparable GAAP measure is available in today’s earnings release and on the company’s website at www.connection.com. Please note that unless otherwise stated, all references to first quarter 2026 comparisons are being made against the first quarter 2025.

Today’s call is being webcast and will be available on Connection’s website. The earnings release will be available on the SEC website at www.sec.gov and in the investor relations section of our website at www.connection.com. I would now like to turn the call over to our host, Tim McGrath, President and CEO. Tim?

Tim McGrath, President and Chief Executive Officer, Connection: Thank you, Samantha. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for Connection’s Q1 2026 conference call. I’ll begin this afternoon with an overview of our first quarter results and highlights of our performance. Tom will then walk us through a more detailed look at our financials. We’re pleased to announce a solid start to 2026 as we continue to execute with discipline and agility despite ongoing supply challenges and a dynamic economic landscape. Our Connection Business Solutions and Connection Enterprise Solutions segments delivered strong growth and consistent execution. Each improved both net sales and gross profit performance. The increase in net sales was driven by growth in endpoint devices, networking, services, and software, including cloud and security. This performance helped offset the expected year-over-year decline in our Connection Public Sector Solutions and highlights the resilience and diversification of our model.

As we discussed in our call last quarter, public sector results reflected the impact of a large non-repeating project that straddled both Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. On a consolidated basis, gross billings grew 4.3% to $1 billion, compared to $978.9 million in the prior year quarter. We also delivered total net sales of $721.9 million, representing a 3% increase year-over-year. Gross profit increased 4.3% year-over-year to $132.7 million. Gross margin expanded by 20 basis points to 18.4%. This reflects our disciplined pricing strategy and strong execution in navigating this dynamic cost environment, along with favorable shifts in both product and customer mix.

Industry-wide memory constraints and related price increases have been widely discussed across the market, and we began to see an impact in the first quarter. In response, we proactively engaged in comprehensive planning sessions with our partners and customers, positioning ourselves to navigate these supply chain constraints effectively. We saw a range of customer responses, including advanced purchasing in some cases, while others took a more measured approach given budget considerations and project timing. As expected, the impact varied for each sales segment, which we will discuss in detail as we progress through the call. With that, let’s turn to our segment performance. Connection Business Solutions delivered another solid quarter. Net sales increased 6.6% to $275.6 million, while gross profit rose 3.2% to a record $67.5 million.

Gross billings grew 9.3% to $446 million. Gross margin declined by 80 basis points year-over-year to 24.5% due to a shift in customer mix. The Connection Business Solutions segment experienced double-digit growth across networking and software, including cloud and security solutions. While some customers pulled orders into Q1, others were impacted by product availability constraints. Overall, we believe these dynamics had little net effect on our business. In Connection Public Sector Solutions, net sales were $99.8 million, down 31% from a year ago, mostly due to the large federal contract that we have discussed. Excluding this non-recurring item, underlying performance remains stable and we expect conditions to improve as we progress through the balance of 2026. Gross billings were $135.7 million, reflecting a 21.2% decline year-over-year.

Notably, gross margin expanded 140 basis points to 15%, driven by favorable shifts in customer and product mix. Enterprise Solutions delivered outstanding top-line growth, with net sales increasing 16.3% to $346.5 million, driven by strong demand for endpoint devices. Gross profit grew 18.7% to $50.2 million, while gross billings increased 10.3% to $439.6 million. Gross margin was 14.5%, up 30 basis points year-over-year, reflecting changes in product mix. Enterprise Solutions was the most affected by supply chain dynamics this quarter. Some customers moved orders into the quarter, while a portion chose to delay ordering during Q1 due to their own fixed IT budgets.

Overall, we believe that the pull-ins benefited enterprise revenues in the low to mid-single digits on a % basis. We also had other enterprise customers make aggressive commitments to secure supply ahead of their needs. While not affecting our revenue and profit, this resulted in increases in inventory. Enterprise Solutions also ended the quarter with a record backlog, positioning us well for continued momentum throughout the year. I’ll now turn the call over to Tom to discuss additional financial highlights. Tom?

Tom Baker, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Connection: Thanks, Tim. In the first quarter, SG&A declined modestly year-over-year, driven by lower marketing costs due to timing of activities and a decrease in payroll expenditures, partially offset by higher variable compensation. We continue to operate with a high degree of expense discipline and executed over the past two quarters, including a net reduction of headcount by 3% year-over-year. At the same time, we’ve been deliberate in reallocating those savings, maintaining targeted investment in our highest priority growth areas. We took action at the end of January to further streamline our cost structure, resulting in a $3.1 million severance charge. These actions further align our expense structure with our strategic priorities and position us to drive enhanced operating leverage as demand continues to build.

SG&A was 15.2% of net sales, down 50 basis points year-over-year, reflecting our continued focus on efficiency and scale. Operating income increased by 39.3% to $20.2 million. Excluding severance expenses and other charges, operating income increased 33.4% to $23.3 million year-over-year, demonstrating strong operating leverage as we continue to balance expense discipline with targeted investment in areas of our business that will drive future growth. Operating income margin improved to 2.8% compared to 2.1% last year. Excluding severance expense and other charges, operating income improved to 3.2%. Interest income for the quarter was $3.4 million compared to $3.9 million last year, primarily a function of a lower interest rate environment.

Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 27%, down from 27.1% in the prior year. As a result, net income for the first quarter increased 27.8% to $17.2 million year-over-year. Excluding severance expense and other charges, net income increased $3.8 million or 24.6% compared to last year. Diluted earnings per share were $0.68, an increase of 33.4% or $0.17, while adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.77, an increase of 28.3% or $0.17 compared to the prior year.

On a trailing twelve-month basis, adjusted EBITDA was $132.3 million compared to $123.1 million a year ago, an increase of 7% resulting from improved earnings. During the quarter, we continued to return capital to shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases. We paid a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share and repurchased approximately 42,000 shares at an average price of $57.70 per share for a total cost of $2.4 million. As of today, we have $81.2 million remaining for stock repurchases under our existing stock repurchase program, providing ongoing flexibility. We also announced today that our board of directors declared a $0.20 per share dividend. The dividend is payable on May 29, 2026 to shareholders of record as of May 12, 2026.

Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow. Operating cash flow for the first quarter was $14.3 million, reflecting targeted working capital investments to support growth. This included a $50.7 million increase in inventory and a $13.7 million increase in accounts receivable, partially offset by a $58.1 million increase in accounts payable. The increase in inventory was planned as we strategically procured ahead of anticipated price increases and to ensure continuity of supply in support of customer deployments. The increase in accounts receivable was primarily due to the timing of customer deliveries. Cash used in investing activities totaled $3 million, driven by $54.3 million of new investment purchases and $2 million of purchases of property and equipment, partially offset by $53.2 million in investment maturities.

Cash used in financing activities was $8.2 million, reflecting our ongoing share repurchase activity of $2.5 million and dividend payments of $5 million to shareholders. We ended the quarter with strong liquidity position, $411.4 million in cash equivalents, and short-term investments, providing significant flexibility to execute on our strategic priorities and continue returning capital to shareholders. I will now turn the call back over to Tim to discuss current market trends.

Tim McGrath, President and Chief Executive Officer, Connection: Thanks, Tom. Our momentum was evident in Q1 across our key vertical markets. In retail, net sales grew 20% and gross profit increased 17% year-over-year, driven by investments in productivity, operational efficiency, and security. In healthcare, net sales and gross profit grew 15% year-over-year as health systems prioritized scalable infrastructure, services, and cost efficiencies. In financial services, net sales were up 17% and gross profit increased 12% year-over-year, reflecting continued investment in modernization and security. The value we deliver continues to be recognized by our strategic partners. We’re proud to have been named the 2026 Dell Technologies Titanium Black Partner, the highest designation within Dell’s partner program. In addition, America’s Rising Star Partner of the Year for 2025 for VMware by Broadcom, highlighting our accelerating momentum in this critical ecosystem.

Zebra Technologies 2025 Partner of the Year for top revenue growth among national solution providers. We’re executing with discipline against our three-part business strategy: data center modernization, digital workplace transformation, and supply chain solutions. We remain focused on accelerating our solutions-led business, deepening customer relationships, and driving profitable growth in cloud, cybersecurity, AI, and integrated solutions. We continue to see strong customer engagement as organizations modernize infrastructure and increase investments in AI, data, and security-driven technologies, areas where we differentiate and where demand and pipelines continue to build. While some timing variability may persist due to supply chain uncertainty, we are partnering closely with our suppliers and customers to minimize its impact. Importantly, the long-term trends supporting our business remain strong and we believe position us well for sustained growth. Our confidence in the business is underpinned by key technology trends driving pipeline and customer activity.

The PC refresh cycle continues through 2026 as customers modernize aging fleets and adopt AI-enabled solutions that deliver higher performance, stronger security, and better user experiences. Data center modernization remains a core priority as customers optimize hybrid environments to improve cost predictability, enhance security, and increase performance while reducing energy consumption. AI-driven demand is expanding across endpoints, data center, edge, and security as customers shift from experimentation to adoption, creating significant opportunities for integrated solutions. We continue to expand our technical services organization to support end-to-end customer needs, and we are investing in training and tools to ensure our teams are fully equipped to guide customers through AI adoption and next-generation architectures at scale. As we move forward, our backlog is at its highest level since mid-2022, providing a positive outlook for our future.

We will continue to invest in sales capability, integrated solutions delivery, and systems to capture this demand while maintaining strong cost discipline. We’re positioning Connection for sustained long-term growth, and we expect to continue to outperform the U.S. IT market by 200 basis points this year. In today’s AI-driven IT environment, demand is accelerating as customers advance refresh and modernization initiatives, driving infrastructure growth and security remaining as a top priority. As customers rethink how they deploy and manage technology, our strategy meets them where they are. We help them navigate the complexity, modernize with purpose, and make confident, informed decisions that drive real business outcomes. In a world where technology changes fast, expertise wins, and that’s where Connection continues to differentiate. We’ll now entertain your questions. Operator?

Josh, Conference Call Coordinator, Connection: Thank you. Our first question comes from Adam Tindle with Raymond James. You may proceed.

Adam Tindle, Analyst, Raymond James: Okay, thanks. Good afternoon. Tim, I wanted to start, you know, kind of those, the end of the comments there. You mentioned how backlog is, I think, the highest since mid 2022. I wonder if you might just double-click on why you think that’s the case right now. The reason that I’m asking is, you know, there’s some concern, if you rewind back to 2022, there was a lot of orders being placed by customers across the entire channel. Some may have been double orders, you know, and things like that. I wonder if you’ve seen any evidence of that going on that might describe the backlog trends. It might be, you know, also helpful for Tom to weigh in on some of the policies that you guys have on backlog. Is it cancelable?

Could customers be double ordering? Just double-click on, you know, that aspect of the demand environment. Thanks.

Tim McGrath, President and Chief Executive Officer, Connection: Thanks, Adam. We’ve been looking at that very closely. As you know, compared to 2022, our suppliers and us, we all have better tools and really much better visibility into our markets. I don’t think there’s any evidence at all of double orders. I do think that, you know, customers are being a little aggressive on the ordering side, trying to get ahead of the, you know, potential future shortages and potential future price increases. I’ll let Tom talk to our policy. Tom?

Tom Baker, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Connection: Yeah. Adam, typically, the way this works is across the business, you know, we are going to require non-cancelable POs before we make a commitment for product, and unless we can return the product. I think we’re, you know, historically, we have always been pretty well insulated from that, and I think we continue down, you know, to deploy those same policies. You know, if you go back to 2022, we had virtually no issues. I don’t see a reason why this shouldn’t be any different. When you look at the elevated backlog in our Connection Business Solutions, there were some orders that we couldn’t fulfill just because of availability. You know, as we said in our prepared remarks, you know, we think there was probably.

It’s a little harder to figure out than enterprise, but we think there probably was a little bit of pull-in of demand. We kinda said, Hey, that’s, you know, close to a net neutral. On the enterprise side, we did see people committing more. We took in the POs. We got the backlog. In some cases, we brought in the inventory and, you know, that will roll out through the year. We, you know, as we said in the remarks, you know, we think the impact of that was, you know, low to mid-single digits of enterprise revenue in the quarter in terms of net pull-ins.

Adam Tindle, Analyst, Raymond James: Got it. That’s helpful. Tim, I think you also, you know, alluded to price increases, which I think we’re hearing across the board and is understandable. Probably an impossible question, but just wondering, you know, if there’s any way to characterize, like, how much is already kinda embedded in what you’re seeing right now? How much is still to come in terms of additional price increases from here? Any observations on elasticity dynamics, as that, those price increases are rolling through? What’s happening to unit trends as those price increases happen? Just a quick follow-up for Tom. how you think, you know, as Tim describes this and as you think about backlog and everything that you have, how this plays out in the back half of the year?

I know you’re not providing, you know, formal guidance for that, but we’re just trying to figure out, you know, if we might see a difference in growth trends into the back half of the year. Thanks, guys.

Tim McGrath, President and Chief Executive Officer, Connection: Thanks, Adam. Those are really good questions. I’ll give you my best thinking at the time, noting that throughout the year it is subject to change. You know, as we meet with our customers and our suppliers, it’s really clear that the memory shortage is gonna continue to drive inflation. What we’re seeing with that inflation is that the price is going up and in some cases the unit counts are going down. However, the inflated prices a little more than offset the reduction in units, at least at this time. More than that, you know, we made comments about transformation into more AI. Customers are putting AI into productivity.

A great example would be, you know, Q1 a year ago, less than 40% of our endpoint devices were AI chip-enabled. Today, our customers purchasing just a little under 70% AI chip-enabled. What we’re seeing is that our customers are all adopting, I wouldn’t say all, many of them are adopting AI on-premise. They’re using Copilots, they’re using other AI tools because they realize that it’s just the inflection point around AI is so great that they can’t outrun it, they can’t wait it out, especially if their competitors are engaging in these technologies that are offering efficiencies. Very hard to sweat the asset, again, because of the AI capabilities that are needed. We’re seeing our customers really lean in with us and plan to upgrade just based on these technology changes.

I’ll ask Tom to give us a little more.

Tom Baker, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Connection: I think in terms of, you know, rolling out the backlog, I think, you know, between Q2 and Q3, some of that backlog will come down and some of the inventory will certainly come down as we roll out some of these customer commitments. I think we’re kind of at the point where we’re not confident enough yet to, you know, say, "Hey, you know, 2026 is going to be a lot better in total than the, you know, we had thought." Our current thinking is maybe there’s a little bit of softening in the back end of the year. It’s really hard to predict because, you know, these pricing dynamics are fluid all the time.

Frankly, we’re getting, you know, a range of, you know, speculation from suppliers and partners on, you know, how long this whole memory shortage is gonna persist. You know, some people are saying, you know, through, you know, even into, you know, 2028, 2029, and others are saying, you know, through 2026. I think it’s a little bit of a wait and see.

Tim McGrath, President and Chief Executive Officer, Connection: Yeah. Finally, Steve, a little more color on customers’ AI adoption and usage. Copilots, for example, which is one measure, is approaching triple-digit growth for us in the quarter. Clearly, customers are adopting the technology and using the technology.

Adam Tindle, Analyst, Raymond James: Makes sense. Thank you, guys.

Tim McGrath, President and Chief Executive Officer, Connection: Thank you.

Josh, Conference Call Coordinator, Connection: Thank you. Our next question comes from Anthony Lebiedzinski with Sidoti. You may proceed.

Anthony Lebiedzinski, Analyst, Sidoti: Yes, good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. You know, nice to see the better than expected start to the year. I guess just to follow up on the previous question in regards to pricing, I know there’s a lot of moving parts, but any way to frame as far as what pricing versus unit volumes was in the first quarter? Just, you know, wondering about that.

Tom Baker, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Connection: Yeah. Anthony, we definitely did see an increase in pricing, obviously. I think that’s pretty pervasive across the board. Yes, we did see a decline in unit volumes. You know, we haven’t really gone out and disclosed that at this point. That’s what we’re seeing. In terms of the dynamics, you know, every partner’s handling this a little bit differently, you know, in terms of giving us, you know, windows in which our customers can commit inventory and the windows by which time they have to take delivery, or else it becomes subject to another, a potential pricing adjustment at that point. You know, some windows are 14 days, some windows are a month, you know. It’s a little bit all over the place.

In general, what we’re seeing is prices are up and unit counts are coming down.

Anthony Lebiedzinski, Analyst, Sidoti: Oh, that’s very helpful context. Okay. Then in terms of the PC refresh cycle, where are we, you know, in terms of that? I mean, you know, like how do you guys think this will play out as you look at the balance of the year?

Tim McGrath, President and Chief Executive Officer, Connection: Anthony, thanks. And appreciate your comments. You know, we saw in 2025, the refresh was a little underwhelming. It was a little below industry expectations. That refresh is gonna continue into 2026. Obviously, with the inflation in price, due to the memory shortage, customers have to think through the timing of that. By and large, our customers are coming to a realization that, sooner is better than later because the back half of the year promises continued inflation in price. I do think, we’re gonna see the PC refresh continue, through most of 2026. I think a little more weighted toward the front end of the year if we have our way.

Anthony Lebiedzinski, Analyst, Sidoti: Understood. Okay. Switching gears to SG&A. I know you guys did some restructuring in the quarter, but just overall, how do we think about the dynamics between your gross profits and your SG&A? I mean, here, you know, we had overall gross profit up more than 4%, and your SG&A was down slightly. How do we think about that as we look to update our models for the rest of the year?

Tom Baker, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Connection: I think, Anthony, this quarter, we were benefited, I think I said in our prepared remarks, you know, we have lower, you know, marketing, advertising, and MDF expenses in the quarter. That’s just due to the timing of some events. That was a bit of a tailwind for us. I think, you know, believe it or not, salaries overall were down because our headcount was down, that was somewhat offset by increase in variable comp due to the gross profit. I think as a percentage of gross profit, you might see a small uptick for the rest of the year, it’s not gonna be, you know, hugely significant.

Anthony Lebiedzinski, Analyst, Sidoti: Gotcha. All right. Well, thank you very much, and best of luck.

Tim McGrath, President and Chief Executive Officer, Connection: Thank you.

Tom Baker, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Connection: Thanks. Thanks, Anthony.

Josh, Conference Call Coordinator, Connection: Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Timothy McGrath for any closing remarks.

Tim McGrath, President and Chief Executive Officer, Connection: Well, thanks, Josh. I’d like to thank all of our customers, vendor partners, and shareholders for their continued support, and once again, our coworkers for their efforts and extraordinary dedication. I’d also like to thank those of you listening to our call this afternoon. Your time and interest and Connection are greatly appreciated. Have a great evening.

Josh, Conference Call Coordinator, Connection: Thank you. This concludes the conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.