BBVA Argentina 4Q25 and FY2025 Earnings Call - Provisions spike as NPLs peak, but market share gains and $150m IFC line cushion growth
Summary
BBVA Argentina closed 2025 with clear contradictions. Inflation-adjusted net income plunged 43.2% year-over-year to ARS 267.4 billion, driven primarily by a sharp rise in loan loss provisions as retail delinquencies deteriorated. At the same time the bank kept gaining share: private loans and deposits grew strongly, market share in loans moved to 11.91% and private deposit share climbed to 10.04%. Management closed a $150 million IFC facility for SME lending and completed acquisition of 50% of FCA Compañía Financiera, both moves that beef up growth capacity.
Management sees the worst of the credit cycle landing in Q1 2026, expects cost of risk and NPLs to fall thereafter, and is sticking to aggressive loan growth guidance of 25% to 30% real for 2026 while targeting a low to mid-teens ROE and a 46% efficiency ratio. The picture is one of tactical resilience, not full recovery: net interest income was hit by lower rates, provisions remain elevated, and several regulatory and liquidity caveats could shape execution this year.
Key Takeaways
- Inflation-adjusted net income for 2025 was ARS 267.4 billion, down 43.2% year-over-year; annual ROE was 7.3% and ROA 1.1%.
- Q4 2025 net income was ARS 59.3 billion, up 44.5% quarter-over-quarter, producing a quarterly ROE of 6.5% and ROA of 0.9%.
- Loan loss allowances rose 181.2% year-over-year and 31.3% quarter-over-quarter, driven by deterioration in retail credit.
- Cost of risk jumped to 8.11% in Q4 2025 and averaged 5.54% for the year, reflecting elevated provisioning needs.
- NPL ratio on private loans was 4.18% at December 2025, below the system average of 5.29%, supporting management claims of prudent origination.
- Private sector loans totaled ARS 14.8 trillion, up 7.6% quarter-over-quarter in real terms and 47.6% year-over-year; consolidated private loan market share rose to 11.91% from 11.27% a year ago.
- Net interest income fell 29.4% year-over-year due to lower rates and inflation, but Q4 NII recovered 20.2% quarter-over-quarter to ARS 758.9 billion as assets repriced; losses on the net monetary position declined and partly offset the NII drop.
- Total NIM in Q4 was 17.5% (up from 15.2% in Q3), with peso NIM rising strongly to 20.2% q/q while dollar NIM fell to 4.8% due to higher rate-bearing dollar liabilities.
- Deposits reached ARS 16.7 trillion, up 3.1% q/q and 29.7% y/y; private deposit market share rose to 10.04% from 8.60% a year ago.
- Loans-to-deposits ratio increased to 88% from 78% in December 2024, and loan participation in assets rose to 57%, the highest since 2020.
- BBVA secured a credit line up to $150 million from the International Finance Corporation on December 22, 2025, to expand SME financing.
- The bank closed the acquisition of 50% of FCA Compañía Financiera on December 10, 2025; the transaction had an ARS 1 billion P&L impact and FCA is included in balance sheet figures, but market share metrics in the report exclude FCA.
- Capital position strengthened, with a CET1 ratio of 18.3% in Q4, supported by a recovery in the fair value of sovereign bonds held through OCI.
- Liquidity ratios stood at 44.2% total, with local currency liquidity at 37.7% and foreign currency liquidity at 55.2%; management says reserve requirements can be met with bonds and do not materially hit NIM, though operational constraints remain.
- Guidance and outlook: management maintains 2026 loan growth guidance of 25% to 30% real, expects to grow deposits 15% to 20% (both to outpace the system), anticipates dollar loans rising to roughly 25% to 27% of the book with ~40% real growth in dollar loans, and targets a 46% efficiency ratio.
- Management expects the credit cycle peak in Q1 2026, with NPLs and cost of risk improving thereafter and cost of risk reverting toward 2024 levels by year-end 2026 if conditions normalize.
- ROE guidance is unchanged at low to mid-teens for 2026, but management states it is too early to be precise given macro and rate uncertainty.
- Dividend policy: last year payout was about 25% of 2024 net income; management expects to pay dividends again but keep a lower payout to preserve capital for growth, and timing will depend on FX/regulatory clarity expected around March.
- Exit from inflation-adjusted accounting is now expected around end 2027 or early 2028, later than the prior view which targeted end-2027.
- Asset-quality nuance: deterioration is concentrated in retail segments; management expects commercial portfolio credit quality to remain stable, and intends to favor corporate and commercial lending in early 2026 while retail demand recovers later in the year.
Full Transcript
Moderator/Operator, BBVA Argentina: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to BBVA Argentina’s 4Q25 and fiscal year 2025 results conference call. Today with us are Mrs. Belén Fourcade, Investor Relations Manager, Diego Cesarini, IRO, and Mrs. Carmen Murillo, CFO, who will be available for the Q&A session. This presentation and the 4Q25 earnings release are available on BBVA’s Investor Relations website, ir.bbva.com.ar, and will also be available for download in the chat. First of all, let me point out that some of the statements made during this conference call may be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions found in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 under U.S. Federal Securities Law. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements.
Additional information concerning these factors is contained in BBVA Argentina’s annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year 2024, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. During the company’s presentation, all microphones will be disabled. At this time, we are going to open it up for questions and answers. If you have a question, please write it down in the Q&A section or click on Raise Hand for audio questions. You will then receive a request to activate your microphone. Please activate it and pick up your headset to provide optimum sound quality when posing your question. I will now turn the call over to Mrs. Belén Fourcade. Please go ahead.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: Good morning. Thank you all for joining us today. After a third quarter that was marked by political instability with its consequent monetary and exchange rate tensions, the results of the midterm legislative elections reaffirmed support for the government’s fiscal reform and order policy. This translated into a rapid normalization of financial variables, which returned to pre-event levels. BBVA Argentina continues to consolidate its growth strategy, reflecting its commitment to being a key player in Argentina’s recovery of activity. This was achieved despite a year ultimately marked by interest rate volatility in the second half and the progressive deterioration of credit quality within specific segments of the retail portfolio. In this line, on December 22, 2025, the bank secured a credit line of up to $150 million from the International Finance Corporation.
These funds allow BBVA to expand its financing capacity for small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby reaffirming its commitment to the productive sector. BBVA Argentina’s non-performing loan ratio on private loans reached 4.18% as of December 2025, a figure that remains below the system average of 5.29% for the same period. The bank stands out for having consistently lower delinquency ratios than the sector average, which reflects the quality of its credit risk management and its prudent approach to portfolio origination. Before diving into numbers, it is important to mention that on December 10, 2025, the transaction through which BBVA Argentina acquired 50% of the share capital of FCA Compañía Financiera has been closed. This had an ARS 1 billion impact in the P&L, and all balance sheet figures include FCA, including loans and deposits.
Nonetheless, market shares expressed in this report and on this call do not include FCA, as the consolidation was made as of the last day of December. Moving to slides 2 to 5 of the webcast presentation, I will now comment on the bank’s fourth quarter 2025 and 2025 fiscal year financial results. BBVA Argentina’s inflation-adjusted net income in 2025 was ARS 267.4 billion, decreasing 43.2% versus 2024. This implied an accumulated ROE of 7.3% and a cumulative ROA of 1.1%. The year-over-year decline in results is mainly explained by the deterioration of loan loss allowances in a context of high delinquency ratios in the financial system.
In spite of observing a 29.4% lower net interest income as a result of lower interest rates and inflation, this should be considered in comparison to lower losses from the net monetary position, which more than offset the lower NII. It is worth noting the 36.9% increase in net fee income, thanks to a proactive approach in improvements, and also in foreign currency and gold gains, the latter explained by an increase in activity after the partial lift in FX controls on April 14, 2025. In the Q4 of 2025, net income was ARS 59.3 billion, increasing 44.5% quarter-over-quarter. This implied a quarterly ROE of 6.5% and a quarterly ROA of 0.9%. Quarterly results were mainly explained by higher income along with lower expenses.
Increase in income is mainly due to, one, better net interest income, and two, an increase in results from write-down of assets at amortized cost and OCI, the latter due to the sale of bonds classified in the OCI model. Expenses improved mainly on the side of personal expenses and administrative expenses. These were negatively offset by, one, loan loss allowances, two, an increase in operating expenses mainly due to turnover tax, and three, lower net fee income in the quarter. Net income from the net monetary position was 32% higher quarter-over-quarter, explained by a higher quarterly inflation. Net interest income in the quarter was ARS 758.9 billion, increasing 20.2% quarter-over-quarter. After the uncertainty surrounding the midterm elections wore off, average market interest rates declined.
With liabilities repricing at a faster pace than assets, we observed the reverse effect from the one seen in the third quarter of 2025, with income from public securities and loans increasing and expenses from funding increasing, but to a much lower extent. In the year, net interest income decreased 29.4%, as mentioned before, more than offset by the lower losses on the side of the net results from the net monetary position. Loan loss allowances increased 31.3% in the quarter and 181.2% accumulated year-over-year, explained by the deterioration of non-performing loans, in particular on the retail book, which implied higher provisioning.
The effect of loan loss allowances can be observed in the evolution of the cost of risk, which reached 8.11% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 5.54% on an annual basis. During 2025, personnel and administrative expenses decreased by 11% and 12.6% respectively. This was achieved thanks to the active pursuit of efficiencies during the year. During the fourth quarter of 2025 in particular, total operating expenses were ARS 537.5 billion, remaining stable quarter-over-quarter. Both the efficiency ratio as well as the fee to expense ratio evidence the stability and improvements that are taking place on these lines of the income statement, and we expect them to improve even further for 2026.
Going on to slides 6 and 7, private sector loans as of the fourth quarter of 2025 totaled ARS 14.8 trillion, increasing 7.6% in real terms quarter-over-quarter and 47.6% year-over-year. In the quarter, growth was mainly driven by an increase in loans in pesos. In total currency, the products that increased the most were mostly commercial loans, such as financing of projects and exports and discounted instruments. On the peso portfolio, discounted instruments, pledge loans, and credit cards stood out. Pledge loans are mainly affected by introduction of FCA into the loan book. In the case of consumer loans, currency policies taken in a context of higher deterioration of non-performing loans were noticeable on this line, with a 2.2% quarter-over-quarter decline.
BBVA Argentina’s consolidated market share of private sector loans reached 11.91% as of the fourth quarter of 2025, improving 64 basis points from 11.27% a year ago. As for asset quality, the NPL ratio of BBVA Argentina on private loans reached 4.18% as of December 2025. As mentioned before, BBVA is renowned for presenting delinquency ratios consistently below the sector average, which reflects the quality of its credit risk management and its prudent approach to portfolio origination. By the end of 2025, total gross loans and other financing over deposits ratio was 88%, above the 78% in December 2024. Participation of total loans over assets is 57%, the highest since 2020 and above the 51% recorded in 2024.
As of the 4th quarter of 2025, the total NIM was 17.5%, higher than the 15.2% in the 3rd quarter of 2025 and below the 20.2% in the 4th quarter of 2024. While the NIM in pesos increased by 277 basis points to 20.2% quarter-over-quarter, the NIM in dollars fell 91 basis points to 4.8%. In the quarter, the increase in NIM is mainly explained by a better yield on public securities and loans in pesos, while the drop in dollar NIM is explained by a higher volume and rate of interest-bearing liabilities.
In the accumulated annual comparison, although the total NIM presents a considerable drop, it should be understood that this is a consequence of the rapid decrease in inflation and therefore the level of rates, and is more than offset by the lower cost of inflation adjustment. This can be seen in the adjusted NIM, which dropped from 17.30% to 13.75%. On the funding side, as of the fourth quarter of 2025, total private deposits reached ARS 16.7 trillion, increasing 3.1% quarter-over-quarter and 29.7% year-over-year. The bank’s consolidated market share of private deposits as of the fourth quarter of 2025 reached 10.04% from 8.60% a year ago.
Private non-financial sector deposits in pesos totaled ARS 10.5 trillion, a decrease of 1.4% quarter-over-quarter, explained by a decrease in time deposits and in other deposits, including interest-bearing checking accounts.
This effect was partially offset by an increase in savings accounts. Private non-financial sector deposits in foreign currency expressed in pesos increased by 11.6% quarter-over-quarter. This is mainly due to an increase in savings accounts and in time deposits. In hard currency, U.S. dollar loans increased 12.7% quarter-over-quarter and 26.6% year-over-year. As of the fourth quarter of 2025, capital ratio reached 18.3%. The quarterly increase in the ratio was due to a 9.4% increase in Common Equity Tier 1, mainly impacted by the recovery in the value of government bonds at fair value through OCI.
Public sector exposure excluding Central Bank totaled ARS 3.9 trillion, implying a 15.5% exposure below the 16.4% recorded in Q3 2025 and 17.9% in Q4 2024. For the year, the drop in exposure is mainly explained by the increase in assets, led by the growth of loans over that of financial instruments. It is important to highlight that more than 90% of the national treasury’s public debt portfolio in ARS is at TAMAR floating rate. These bonds represent approximately 65% of the bank’s sovereign portfolio, and in the context of higher real interest rates in the second half of the year, added value to the financial margin. In the quarter, the liquidity ratio reached a level of 44.2%.
The liquidity ratio in local and foreign currency reached 37.7% and 55.2% respectively. In line with our commitment of generating value for our shareholders, the bank continued the payment of dividends corresponding to the 2024 fiscal year in 10 installments, having paid 9 of the 10 installments required by the central bank’s regulation up to the date of this report. This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now take your questions. Operator, please open the line for questions.
Moderator/Operator, BBVA Argentina: We are now going to start the Q&A session for investors and analysts. To ask a question, please click on Raise Hand for audio questions. You will receive a request to activate your microphone. Please pick up your headset to provide optimum sound quality. Our first question comes from Tito Labarta with Goldman Sachs.
Tito Labarta, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Hi. Good morning. Thank you for the call and taking my question. Guess my main question is really on asset quality and how that continues to evolve and what that could mean for loan growth for 2026. We, you know, we kind of expected already that you’re still not out of the credit cycle, but, you know, it seemed provisions jumped a bit more than expected. NPLs went up a bit. I mean, do you still think 1Q, 2Q should be the worst of it? You know, do you think that can get delayed and the credit cycle can last a bit longer? I just wanna understand how comfortable you feel on credit quality stabilizing and potentially improving and what could that mean for loan growth.
You have pretty good loan growth in the quarter, but is there some risk to your ability to grow loans if credit quality does not improve? Thank you.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: Hi, Tito. Good morning. Hi, everyone. This is Carmen Morillo. Thank you for your question. Related to asset quality growth, we think that these are the main questions for this year. First of all, I would like to highlight that during 2025 we have been able to gain market share in a quite solid way. This 11.91% market share that means 60 basis points increase in market share is quite solid. In terms of credit risk, we’ve been under the system ratios. Having said that, we believe that first quarter will be also a tough one.
From them on, what we believe is that credit indicators should go downwards. For us, the peak should be in first quarter in terms of NPLs for sure, and in terms of cost of risk also. In terms of growth, maybe it’s too soon to answer this question. What we believe is that depending on what the financial system growth is, what we still believe is that we are. Our strategy is to gain market share. We see the credits in the system growing around 18% in real terms, so we should be growing above that. Our guidance was to grow between 25% and 30% for 2026.
We think it’s too early to change our guidance. We would maintain these figures to grow faster than the system. Also in terms of deposits, we believe that our strategy is the good one in that sense. We’ve been growing also in deposits during 2025. We’ve been able to gain.
to have a better participation in the transactionality of our clients. In that sense, we will be also beating the system in deposits. I hope I could have answered your question. Thank you.
Tito Labarta, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Yeah, no, that’s helpful, Carmen. Thank you for that. How do you think that translates to profitability for 2026? I mean, do you think you can achieve a double digit ROE? Can you start getting to like the low teens by the end of the year, or does that also get delayed a bit and, you know, we could see some pressure on profitability? Thank you.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: I think we have been very consistent in our guidance. In terms of ROE, we were talking about low to mid-teens for the last quarters. It’s as I mentioned, and all of you know, the environment is not so easy to predict. We think it’s early to change this guidance. We are confident we will be able to achieve a better profitability than the one we have done this year, which by the way, is much better than the systems one and other peers. We are happy with that performance.
In relative terms, of course, we have faced a lot of difficulties this year and I think the year is a very positive one in this environment. For next year we hope to be, yeah, above low to mid-teens. Too early to say low or mid-teens, but I believe we should be achieving this goal.
Tito Labarta, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Okay, great. Thank you very much, Carmen.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: You’re welcome.
Moderator/Operator, BBVA Argentina: Our next question comes from Brian Flores with Citi.
Brian Flores, Analyst, Citi: Hi, Carmen and team. Thank you for the opportunity. Carmen, I wanted to maybe expand a bit on deposits because I think your market share gains were very relevant. You’re above the double digit maybe for the first time in some time, so I think it’s a very important point. Just wanted to see your strategy, right? Because I think given the conditions that are very tight, maybe the competition for funding intensifies, you know. Just wanted to ask you what’s your strategy here and how do you prevent maybe a spike in the cost of funding?
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: Hi, Brian, this is Diego Cesarini. I will take this question. Well, it’s true, we have been growing on deposits much faster than the system. Last year, we grew 32% in real terms, while the system grew around 12%. Our gains in market share have been huge. Here, we have been working on many fronts. On one side, we have seen a recovery on retail deposits. You know, retail term deposits, for example, represented a couple of years ago before Milei took over, before the 2023 presidential elections represented around 30% of our deposits in pesos. After a year and a half, they just represented 10%.
When last year we started to see a recovery in the investors’ appetite for bringing that kind of deposits. We put a lot of focus on trying to make them grow faster. Now they represent around 15%. We have also been very active on companies, on SMEs deposits. We were out of that market a couple of years ago because we didn’t need that funding. We are back on that market. We are putting a lot of aggressive targets to work in our commercial forces. We have also succeeded a lot in growing very fast on SMEs deposits. The last, I guess, that the last leg of this strategy are wholesale deposits.
Institution, as you know, they still represent a huge amount of Argentinian market. Again, two years ago, we didn’t need those deposits. After we started growing, well, we were going for them again. We are on every front. Of course, in dollar deposits, we have also been growing market share. We are also active on that market, and we still think that we have room to keep growing there.
Brian Flores, Analyst, Citi: Well, thank you. Super clear. A follow-up on Tito’s question. Just to summarize, basically, you’re envisioning growth, as Carmen was saying, 25%-30% in real terms. I don’t know if you could elaborate a bit on the composition, because I know you’re a bit more on the commercial side in terms of the mix, right? The deposits, do you think they grow above or in line with loans? ROE you mentioned already, maybe low double digits. I have maybe another question on asset quality. Do you think cost of risk could be at some point, maybe at the end of 2026, closer to the end of 2024, which is closer to the 5% rather than the 7% we’re, you know?
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: Starting with
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: No
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: ... starting with your latest questions, yes, we think that by the end of this year, it could be reaching the 2024 levels. Of course, it will start at levels that are similar to the end of last year, as Carmen said before. Regarding the composition of our portfolio, I think that maybe in general terms, it will be similar to the one that we have right now. Of course, at the beginning of the year, probably during the first semester, we will be much more focused on big corporations because, well, for obvious reasons. The retail market is still not recovering. Probably consumer loans or credit card loans could suffer a little during the first part of the year. Probably in the second semester, things will return to normality.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: Yeah. The point is when the situation in the retail side is safe enough to come back to credit cards and personal loans and all that. Having said that, we will be in mortgages, in pledge loans. In the retail side, we see these products as the main ones in our strategy at the beginning of the year. Of course, as the situation gets better, we will be back in all products as we used to be. In the commercial side, we are not expecting a higher deterioration.
That’s why we think we will maintain, as we always mention, in the mix we have nowadays.
Brian Flores, Analyst, Citi: Well, super clear. On deposit, just to clarify, do you expect to grow above or below the loan growth?
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: Sorry.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: The loan.
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: Above or below what?
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: The loan growth. No?
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: No, I guess the below loan growth.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: On the system.
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: Above the system probably, but below loan growth. Just because, well, of course, equity also grows. There are other liabilities that also grow. We need to grow less in percentage terms in deposits than in loans. That’s just mathematics. As I said before, we still think that we have room to grow. Even if deposits were behaving not so good this year, we still are liquid. We still have bonds in excess. We have a public sector portfolio in excess of what we need to comply with reserve requirements, so we still could use some liquidity in order to keep growing.
Brian Flores, Analyst, Citi: Perfect. If we think of, let’s say a 20% real terms in deposits, that makes sense, right?
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: Yes. Between 15% and 20% could make sense in a scenario where we grow in loans between 25% and 30%.
Brian Flores, Analyst, Citi: Super clear. Thank you, team.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: In both cases, gaining. The strategy is to gain market share. It will depend on what the system does.
Brian Flores, Analyst, Citi: Perfect. Thank you.
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: You’re welcome.
Moderator/Operator, BBVA Argentina: Next question from Carlos Gomez-Lopez with HSBC.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez, Analyst, HSBC: Hello, Carmen Morillo, Diego Cesarini, Belén Fourcade. First, congratulations on the good result and the gains in market share, which is what you wanted to achieve, and the stability of the results. To ask a few things which are different. First, the dividend for 2025, do you expect it to be able to pay in a single or a discrete number of payments, or will you still have these 10 different payments that you have had in 2024? What level of payment are you thinking of doing? Second, on taxes. When you look at the last 3 years, you’ve been paying about 34% on average, over the last 3 years.
Is that the level that you expect for the future, or should we go back to the statutory rate around 30%? Finally, can you give us an update about when we might move away from inflation accounting? Is that 2028, or do we have to wait longer? Thank you.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: Hi, Carlos. Thank you for your words. Related to your question. First one was dividends. We still don’t know how are we gonna be able to pay the dividend. I don’t have an answer on that question. We believe we need to have information in the following, during March, I would say. We will know that soon. Related to the amount, we ended with this capital ratio of 18.3%, 2025. As I mentioned, we want to grow for the next years, we prefer to pay a small... We will be paying dividend, but it will be something similar to what we did last year.
To maintain a lower payout ratio and grow faster. Your second question was.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez, Analyst, HSBC: It was on the taxes and inflation. By the way, what was the payout in the end last year?
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: Sorry?
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: Last year payout.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez, Analyst, HSBC: The payout last year.
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: Was, around 25% of our 2024 net income.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez, Analyst, HSBC: 25%. Okay.
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: That was last year dividend.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: Yeah. Inflation. A couple of months ago, we were thinking about 2027, by the end of 2027 to be the end of this adjustment. Now we changed a little bit our projections of inflation. I think it would be prudent to say that 2028 should be the year to go out of this adjustment. It will be, yeah, end 2027, beginning of 2028, something like that.
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: Almost just to add a piece of information, according to the FX regulation that is in place, we could access, in theory, to the official FX market to pay dividends this year.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez, Analyst, HSBC: Yes. Right.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: Okay. Then in terms of taxes, you were asking. I don’t see a reason why they should come back to so other percentages. I don’t have here the information, let me take a look on that and come back to you.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez, Analyst, HSBC: Sure.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: Yeah. I believe... we should be at that levels then, if we see something else, I will come to you.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez, Analyst, HSBC: That level meaning the 30% statutory? As I said, this year, almost every quarter you have had 34%-41% in my numbers. Maybe I’m doing something wrong.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: No, I mean 35.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez, Analyst, HSBC: Thirty-five.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: Yeah.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez, Analyst, HSBC: Around 35. All right. Thank you.
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: Logically it should be around 35.
Carlos Gomez-Lopez, Analyst, HSBC: 35. Okay, thank you.
Moderator/Operator, BBVA Argentina: Next question from Pedro Offenhenden with Latin Securities.
Pedro Offenhenden, Analyst, Latin Securities: Yo, team. Thank you for taking my question. Wanted to ask on cost, how should we think about personnel and administrative expenses in during this year?
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: Hi, Pedro. Thank you for your question. This year meaning 2026, I believe.
Pedro Offenhenden, Analyst, Latin Securities: Yes.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: ’ve seen during this year, we believe we will be also improving in 2026. The trend should continue, not only in terms of being quite aggressive in not growing in expenses, but also due to our better net interest margin from fees and commissions and so on. The efficiency ratio should go downwards
Pedro Offenhenden, Analyst, Latin Securities: Okay. Do you have a target on the efficiency ratio for the year?
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: Around 46%.
Pedro Offenhenden, Analyst, Latin Securities: Okay, perfect. Thank you.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: You’re welcome.
Moderator/Operator, BBVA Argentina: Our next question comes from Marcos Buscaglia with Allaria. Marcus, you can open your microphone. I believe you’re having some technical issues. We’re gonna go ahead with the next person in the queue, which is Matías Cattaruzzi with AdCap.
Matías Cattaruzzi, Analyst, AdCap: Hi. Good afternoon. How’s everyone? I have a question about the, as we have seen, in the first quarter, dollar liquidity in the system is improving, and government is signaling to probably changing regulation in dollar lending to non dollar-producing clients. How do you see Devvar in this field? Do you intend to lend in USD to non dollar-producing clients? Which sectors do you think would be best?
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: Hi, Matías. This is Diego. Well, first of all, I would like to say that in the case of BBVA, we are pretty comfortable with the amount of lending we are producing in dollars right now with the current regulation. You know, we are growing. We have a lot of demand in our pipeline. If you ask me by the end of this quarter, even if we are growing a lot in deposits and other kind of dollar funding, we would really be short of liquidity. We are gaining market share in loans, and everything is being done under current regulations. We are not in the need of a change in this regulation. Having said this, if regulation changes and opens to more sectors, of course, we have to evaluate very carefully the sectors.
It’s difficult to establish a general policy because we all have in mind what happened in Argentina 25 years ago, where USD lending was open for anyone. That kind of unhedge are very difficult to manage in case of devaluation. This is basically our view of the situation. If the regulation changes, we will analyze if there are any sectors specifically or special cases where we can relax a little our policy. I think that the most important is that we are really lending at full with the current policy. Right now, we don’t need the change. In our case, we don’t need a change in regulation. Besides, it’s...
When you look at the loan-to-deposit ratios in foreign currency, you will see that in our case it’s around, right now it’s around 55%, probably will be 60% in a couple of months. Reserve requirements are really high in this currency, are around 23%. We also have to keep some bank notes in our branches. We have faced, what is, of course, it’s a public information that we have faced, banks have faced a very sudden and deep runs on our deposits many years ago, so we still have to be very careful regarding our customers’ behaviors in this kind of deposit. We still have to keep important amounts of liquidity in dollar terms.
Of course, Central Bank cannot lend dollars to banks in case of need. This is our approach to this subject.
Matías Cattaruzzi, Analyst, AdCap: Okay. Thank you. A follow-up question. Do you have a guidance in net interest margin for 2026?
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: We do not have a formal guidance on net interest margin, but we think that we like to measure this indicator in real terms, you know? Because of course, if you compare 2024 to when 2025, the net interest margin fell, but of course, because inflation fell and interest rates also decreased very sharply. On the other side of our balance sheet, in our net income, you see that the cost of inflation also decreases a lot. We have to see this in net terms. In general terms, we have seen that last year, we didn’t lose margin. It was our net margins was similar to the previous year.
For next year, for 2026, we are seeing a similar situation. We are probably our net interest margin will fall a little in real terms. That will be offset by growth in activity. This is not an issue for now for the bank.
Matías Cattaruzzi, Analyst, AdCap: All right. Thank you so much.
Moderator/Operator, BBVA Argentina: Our next question comes from Marcos Buscaglia with Allaria.
Marcos Buscaglia, Analyst, Allaria: Hi. Sorry, I was having trouble with my microphone before. I wanted to ask, in first place about personal expenses. How is explained the decrease in this quarter while head count has increased? Then about your guidance, I wanted to know if you could share the assumptions behind that guidance about inflation, GDP growth in 2026 and the effects. The last one is, do you know about how much of the growth in loans and deposits, is in pesos and in dollars? Thank you.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: Okay. Thank you, Marcus, for the questions. Related to the first one, personal expenses. There’s some provisions we decided to return, that’s why you see this is true, no? That you see a different evolution between head count and expenses. It’s a one-off. This is the short answer for that. Related to the guidance, I think so.
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: Regarding inflation, we are expecting right now, our research department is expecting a 22%. Regarding GDP, 3% growth. Regarding effects, around 1,700. Regarding the mixing growth in loans and pesos and dollars, we are still expecting dollar loans to grow a little above peso loans. you know, dollar loans right now represent around 23% of our book. Probably that will reach 25%-27%. Dollar growth should be around 40% probably in real terms or a little more.
Marcos Buscaglia, Analyst, Allaria: Okay. Thank you. Just one question. Do you think that the personal expenses charge of this quarter can be adjusted by inflation in order to project the followings or which number could be a normalized number?
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: I’m not sure if I get your question right, Marcus. Sorry.
Marcos Buscaglia, Analyst, Allaria: It’s, if you think that the personal expenses charge of this quarter, in order to project it, will it growth as inflation growth or which?
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: ... growth do you expect for that, charge?
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: I would say that first, efficiency rate, ratio is gonna be lower than this year. Second, the growth in expenses as a whole should be very linked to inflation. With this couple of.
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: Okay.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: Okay.
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: Thank you. Thank you very much.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: You’re welcome.
Moderator/Operator, BBVA Argentina: Our next question comes from Brian Flores with Citi.
Brian Flores, Analyst, Citi: Hi, team. Thank you for taking the question. Just wanted to ask you, because everyone, I think not only you, but other peers have been mentioning about the potential recovery of the consumer. Just wanted to ask you your view, what are the catalysts here for us to see a recovery and also for them to start, as you mentioned, you know, recovering not only in the demand of credit, but also maybe on deposits? I think that would be great color. Thank you.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: Thank you for the question. The short answer should be, so, interest rates need to be stable and lower. That’s one issue, which is important. The other one is, the micro, no? The stability. Macro policies are going in the right direction, and we believe this is, so in the right path. We still need to see what happens with the companies, with the retail, with the salaries in real terms. It’s more complicated than only, interest rates. We believe, something else need to be happening in the country to go back to consumer loans.
Brian Flores, Analyst, Citi: Thank you, Carmen. Anything on the regulatory side that you think could really help on either side, either supply or demand of credit?
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: A lot of the bad regulations have already been addressed. Of course, everybody is aware that last year, Central Bank monetary policy was very restrictive. Our reserve requirements skyrocketed. I think that Probably we will need some flexibility on that side from Central Bank in order to keep growing, and we think that that will come with time. I think that right now, of course, inflation has gone a little above the expected levels. Once that issue is again under track, I think that Central Bank is going to act and start to be less restrictive. I think that’s the main issue right now.
Brian Flores, Analyst, Citi: Thank you, team.
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: Welcome.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: Welcome.
Moderator/Operator, BBVA Argentina: Next question from Ignacio with Investir en Bolsa. You can open your microphone. Ignacio, you can open your microphone.
Brian Flores, Analyst, Citi0: Do you hear me?
Moderator/Operator, BBVA Argentina: Yes.
Brian Flores, Analyst, Citi0: Okay. Hi, Carmen, Diego. My, my question was regarding reserve requirements, but Diego just answered that. It was if you are expecting or seeing the Central Bank lowering those, but you mentioned that it will depend on the evolution of inflation. Sorry, it was already answered, and thank you very much.
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: Yes, I can elaborate a little more. Let me tell you that, in the case of reserve requirements, what Central Bank did last year, they raised, of course, these levels, but the. We can comply those requirements in bonds, so it doesn’t represent a cost for our NIM. It’s not affecting our net income, of course, but of course we need those funds in order to keep growing in loans if there is enough demand. Besides that, we need a little more. We are asking for a little more flexibility because, you know, last August, we had to comply with those requirements on a daily basis. That was, from the operational side, it was very difficult for us.
They have relaxed somewhat those daily requirements, but still there are some minor issues that we think that should be addressed. We are asking, but That doesn’t have a really an impact on net income. That’s the general view on the subject.
Brian Flores, Analyst, Citi0: Okay. Thank you. Diego, one more question. Do you think that wallets and fintechs that, well, banks already won the battle of salaries and being deposited in banks, but do you think that they will eventually strike back to that, to potentially reverse that?
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: Anything can happen, but I think that the main issue is that the biggest one, Mercado Pago, has already asked for a banking license. We should guess that in any time in the future, they will get that banking license, and they will be able to offer the product. We need to be ready. Our products need to be competitive and have a good user experience in order to be in a good position to keep our share. We’ve been growing on wallet, on pay per share. We have around 15% of the total market. We have been growing consistently through the past years, so I think that we have a good offer for our customers.
Brian Flores, Analyst, Citi0: Okay. Thank you very much.
Diego Cesarini, IRO, BBVA Argentina: You’re welcome.
Moderator/Operator, BBVA Argentina: Thank you. The Q&A session is over. Now I would like to pass the word back to BBVA’s team for final remarks.
Carmen Murillo, CFO, BBVA Argentina: Thank you. Thank you all for attending the conference. Just to highlight that, despite the challenge of the environment, we’ve been going through this year, we believe BBVA Argentina has proven resilience and effective management in the year. Credit growth and non-performing loans levels below the system average and a very solid position in solvency and liquidity are the key issues of our strategy. We are committed to keep growing in the following quarters and to maintain our efficiency and generate profitability for our shareholders.
Moderator/Operator, BBVA Argentina: Thank you. This does conclude today’s presentation. You may now disconnect and have a nice day.