AXTA April 30, 2026

Axalta Coating Systems Q1 2026 Earnings Call - Record Mobility Sales, Refinish Stabilization, and $600M Merger Synergy Confidence

Summary

Axalta Coating Systems delivered a resilient Q1 2026, posting adjusted diluted EPS of $0.56, which beat expectations by 12%, driven by disciplined cost execution and a record-breaking Mobility segment. While net sales declined 1% year-over-year due to volume headwinds in performance coatings, the company stabilized its Refinish business and saw Mobility achieve record sales of $452 million with a 17.5% EBITDA margin. Management highlighted a strategic pivot toward index-linked pricing in Mobility and robust cost controls that shielded margins despite macro uncertainty and geopolitical inflation risks.

The most significant narrative driver remains the pending merger of equals with Akzo Nobel. Management reaffirmed its confidence in capturing $600 million in annual run-rate synergies, citing seamless integration planning and clean team progress. Looking ahead, Axalta expects a gradual inflection in Refinish volumes and commercial vehicle demand in the second half of 2026. The company maintained its full-year guidance, projecting adjusted EBITDA margins around 22% and free cash flow exceeding $500 million, supported by a projected drop in interest expense and a net leverage ratio expected to fall below 2.0x by year-end.

Key Takeaways

  • Adjusted diluted EPS of $0.56 beat consensus estimates by 12%, underscoring the durability of Axalta's operating model amid macro volatility.
  • Mobility Coatings achieved a record first-quarter net sales run rate of $452 million, with Adjusted EBITDA margins expanding 100 basis points year-over-year to 17.5%.
  • Refinish sales stabilized at $498 million, with net body shop wins increasing 10% year-over-year, signaling a bottoming out of destocking trends and claims activity.
  • Management confirmed a strategic shift toward index-linked pricing, with over 50% of Mobility revenue now tied to raw material indices to hedge against cost volatility.
  • The pending merger with Akzo Nobel is on track for a shareholder vote by early July, with management reiterating confidence in delivering $600 million in annual run-rate synergies.
  • Cash from operations hit a first-quarter record of $68 million, while free cash flow improved $35 million year-over-year to $21 million, driven by working capital discipline.
  • Net leverage ratio stands at 2.3x, with management targeting a reduction to below 2.0x by year-end as most free cash flow is deployed to pay down the term loan.
  • Interest expense declined 14% year-over-year to $34 million, with full-year 2026 interest costs expected to drop more than $25 million to approximately $150 million.
  • Commercial Transportation Solutions (CTS) emerged as a bright spot, offsetting a 26% market decline in Class 8 trucks with only a 6% drop in Axalta's sales due to new business wins.
  • Management expects Refinish pricing to move mid-single-digits in 2026, with positive price mix inflecting in Q2 and carrying through the back half of the year.
  • Global auto production forecasts were lowered to 91 million builds, but Class 8 commercial vehicle production expectations were raised 10% to 274,000 units for 2026.
  • Axalta has shifted its procurement strategy from 60% spot buys to 60% contracted spend, providing greater visibility and reducing exposure to spot market inflation spikes.

Full Transcript

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research0: Thank you for your continued patience. Your meeting will begin shortly. If you need assistance at any time, please press star zero and a member of our team will be happy to help you. Thank you for your continued patience. Your meeting will begin shortly. If you need assistance at any time, please press star zero and a member of our team will be happy to help you.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research1: Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Axalta Coating Systems Q1 2026 earnings call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the presentation by management. In the interest of time, we ask you please ask one question. Today’s call is being recorded and a replay will be available through May 7, 2026. Those listening after today’s call should please note that the information provided in the recording will not be updated and therefore may no longer be current. I will now turn the call over to Colleen Lubic, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Please go ahead.

Colleen Lubic, Vice President of Investor Relations, Axalta Coating Systems: Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss Axalta’s first quarter 2026 financial results. I’m Colleen Lubic, Vice President of Investor Relations. Joining me today are Chris Villavarayan, our Chief Executive Officer, and Carl Anderson, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, please turn to slide 2 for our forward-looking statements and non-GAAP disclosures. We posted our first quarter 2026 financial results this morning. You can find today’s presentation and supporting materials on the investor relations section of our website at axalta.com. Our remarks today and a slide presentation may include forward-looking statements reflecting our current views of future events and their potential impact on Axalta’s performance and with respect to the proposed merger of equals between Axalta and Akzo Nobel. These statements involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results and outcomes may materially differ. We are under no obligation to update these statements.

Our remarks and the slide presentation also contain various non-GAAP financial measures. We included reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our filings with the SEC for more information. With that, I would like to now turn the call over to Chris.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Thank you, Colleen. Good morning, everyone. Turning to our first quarter highlights, we delivered strong results and exceeded expectations across our financial metrics. In the quarter, we generated net sales of $1.25 billion, Adjusted EBITDA of $259 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.56, which came in 12% above expectations. These results reflect disciplined execution and a focus on the levers within our control. We also set meaningful cash generation records this quarter. With $68 million of cash from operations and $21 million of free cash flow, an improvement of $35 million year-over-year. This period marked the twelfth consecutive quarter of year-over-year profitability improvement in our industrial business, while Mobility achieved a first quarter net sales record and Adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.5%, reflecting solid execution and cost discipline.

We saw stabilization in Refinish at nearly $500 million in sales, consistent with the last five quarters. Innovation has always been and remains an important differentiator for Axalta. During the quarter, we received six Business Intelligence Group Innovation Awards and three prestigious Edison Awards. NextJet, a collaboration with Dürr and XAAR, enables OE manufacturers to provide next-generation personalized exterior finishes at production scale, shifting from a fixed palette to unlimited customization without sacrificing quality, durability, or efficiency. Elasta E-Pro FG Black, a powder coating engineered for thermal stability and secondary fire protection in electric vehicle battery systems. NextJet and Elasta E-Pro FG Black were both acknowledged with Gold Edison Awards. TintMaster AI, which was acknowledged with a Bronze Edison Award, is a breakthrough in tint manufacturing using advanced AI to address the challenge of color variability in paint manufacturing.

Edison Awards honor technologies that are redefining industries, solving complex customer challenges, and shaping the future. I want to recognize the smart and talented people at Axalta for developing and bringing to market advanced solutions with real-world impact. Let’s turn to slide 4. Against a backdrop of macro uncertainty and elevated volatility, we remain focused on managing through what we can control. While recent developments have increased uncertainty across cost and supply availability, our actions over the past several years have positioned us well to mitigate raw material inflation. We’re closely monitoring developments across energy, logistics, and the broader supply and demand landscape as it relates to the evolving situation in the Middle East. From a purchasing perspective, we delivered 12 consecutive quarters of year-over-year improvement in variable cost due to strong productivity projects as well as focused implementation of procurement best practices.

We now have approximately 60% of our direct spend under contract rather than spot buys. Many of our strategic supplier agreements are stronger and incorporate indexation, which is helping reduce volatility and improve visibility. As it relates to pricing, we plan to move quickly to offset the impact of inflation. We’re driving solid discipline across the portfolio. In Refinish, we expect to implement mid-single-digit pricing in 2026, reflecting the value we deliver. In Mobility, more than 50% of our revenue is now tied to raw material indices, which provides a natural hedge against cost volatility. Mobility has delivered six consecutive quarters of positive year-over-year price mix, reinforcing our ability to offset inflation. Across the rest of the portfolio, we’re prudent and proactive with the pricing actions and surcharges in place where appropriate to help protect margins.

From a transformation and cost discipline standpoint, we continue to tightly manage our operating expenses. In the first quarter, SG&A declined 7% year-over-year on a constant currency basis, and we exceeded our operational productivity targets. Even amid top-line pressure, our Adjusted EBITDA margins have exceeded 20% for 9 consecutive quarters, underscoring the durability of our operating model. Supporting all of this is our resilient supply chain and cost structure. Approximately 90% of our direct buy is locally sourced where variable costs represent about 60% of COGS. Inventory levels remain at roughly 115 days on hand, which helps limit the impact of inflation, particularly as we enter the second quarter. Let’s turn to slide 5. We see solid execution across all our businesses.

In Refinish, net body shop wins increased 10% year-over-year and generated net sales growth in the first quarter in three out of our four regions. We’re also expanding with leading MSOs, which remain a key focus for the business. In Industrial, our most diversified portfolio, the weak local macro has been the story for the last few years. However, we are starting to see signs of recovery. We delivered five consecutive quarters of net sales growth in Asia, driven by our Energy Solutions business, drove volume growth in Europe during the quarter with share gains in our E-Coat business, and we’re seeing positive price mix for seven straight quarters. In Mobility, we delivered record net sales in the first quarter of $452 million and growth in three out of our four regions.

Commercial Transportation Solutions, which was a bright spot in 2025, also delivered record first quarter sales, driven by continued success with new business wins. Overall, new business wins and excellent operational performance across the portfolio are helping us offset the headwinds in North America, where the macro environment has been tempered by economic anxiety, elevated consumer costs, and higher for longer interest rates. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Carl to discuss our financial results.

Carl Anderson, Chief Financial Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Turning to slide 6, net sales were $1.254 billion, a 1% decrease year-over-year, primarily driven by lower volumes in performance coatings. This was partially offset by favorable foreign currency translation, largely due to a stronger euro. These dynamics were expected and contemplated in our 1st quarter guidance. Gross margin was 33%, down slightly from last year, driven primarily by unfavorable mix from lower volumes in North America. Net income was $91 million, a decrease of $8 million from the prior year period. This was driven primarily by $22 million in transaction costs associated with the pending merger with Akzo Nobel. These costs were partially offset by a $17 million discrete income tax benefit and a reduction in interest expense. SG&A was down slightly as we continued to aggressively manage our cost structure.

Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $259 million, resulting in an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.6%. While both metrics were lower year-over-year, we did perform above expectations as reductions in operating expenses and variable costs helped to offset lower volumes in performance coatings. Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.56, exceeding our outlook by 12%, supported by lower interest expense and stronger overall earnings in the quarter. Our momentum and cash generation remained strong. Cash provided by operating activities was $68 million, a company first quarter record. This was an increase of $42 million year-over-year. Free cash flow of $21 million was another first quarter record for Axalta and improved by $35 million versus the prior year period. This was primarily driven by improved working capital and lower interest payments.

Performance coatings first quarter net sales declined 2% year-over-year to $802 million. This decrease was driven by lower volumes primarily in North America and unfavorable price mix. These impacts were partially mitigated by favorable foreign currency translation and contributions from our acquisitions in our refinish business, which we continue to execute as part of our distribution strategy outside of North America. Refinish net sales declined 3% to $498 million, reflecting lower claims activity and shifting customer order patterns as anticipated. Industrial net sales declined 2% year-over-year to $304 million, with volume pressure in North America and Latin America partially offset by price mix and foreign exchange. Notably, Europe and China delivered volume growth in the first quarter.

First quarter performance coatings Adjusted EBITDA was $180 million, down from $197 million a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased by 170 basis points to 22.4% due to lower volumes and unfavorable price mix, which was partially offset by a reduction in operating and variable expenses. We do expect that price mix will inflect positively beginning in the second quarter and carry on through the rest of the year. Mobility Coatings delivered record first quarter net sales coming in at $452 million, an increase of 3% from the prior year period. Light Vehicle net sales increased $9 million, driven by favorable foreign currency and organic growth in 3 of our 4 regions, including continued momentum from new business wins in Brazil.

As planned, sales in China declined in line with lower auto production in the region. Commercial vehicle net sales were also up 3% year-over-year, supported by favorable foreign currency impacts, new business wins, positive price mix, and record Commercial Transportation solution sales, which together helped offset the effect of lower Class 8 truck production. Mobility coatings Adjusted EBITDA totaled $79 million in the first quarter, compared to $73 million a year ago, reflecting benefits from lower variable costs, favorable foreign currency, and reduced operating expenses. Adjusted EBITDA margin increased 100 basis points year-over-year to 17.5%. In the first quarter, we delivered another period of consistent cash generation, which underscores the durability of our operating model.

Interest expense declined 14% year-over-year, and during the quarter, we repaid $54 million of gross debt and ended with a net leverage ratio of 2.3 times. For full year 2026, we expect interest expense of approximately $150 million, representing an improvement of more than $25 million versus last year and nearly 27% lower than 2024. For the rest of the year, we are planning on deploying most of our free cash flow to pay down our term loan and expect that our net leverage ratio will be below 2 times at year end. As we turn to our outlook on slide 10, I’ll start with the macro assumptions underlying our 2026 guidance. External forecasts and key performance indicators remain relatively consistent with how we entered the year.

That said, geopolitical developments, including the situation in Iran and broader Middle East tensions, have increased uncertainty across global markets, impacting energy prices, inflation, and consumer sentiment. While the ultimate duration and economic impact of these developments is unclear, the heightened volatility has the potential to create additional pressure on both demand and cost in the back half of the year. In refinish, we are seeing signs of a more stable market as destocking trends are abating and claims activity is sequentially expected to improve. Auto insurance premiums have moderated meaningfully. Used vehicle prices are rising and miles driven are trending favorably. At the same time, consumer sentiment inflation concerns are more challenged. All this being said, we are planning for second half volumes to improve compared to last year. In industrial, we were encouraged by the results we saw in the first quarter, particularly in Europe and Asia.

However, we remain cautious about the pace and timing of recovery in North America this year. Overall, our business is positioned very well for an eventual market recovery in North America as we are performing at record margin levels and have significantly improved our operational efficiency. In mobility, we are now assuming global auto production of approximately 91 million builds, down from our prior outlook of 92 million units. In commercial vehicle, external forecasts for North America Class 8 builds have increased, and we now assume approximately 274,000 units, up 10% from previous expectations. With respect to the second quarter, we expect net sales to be roughly flat with adjusted EBIT on the range of $280 million-$290 million and adjusted diluted earnings per share of approximately $0.65, roughly in line with a year ago.

For the full year, we are maintaining our previous guidance expectations for revenue, EBITDA, earnings per share and free cash flow. At this point, we are tracking closer to the lower end of EBITDA and EPS guidance given the demand signals we are seeing at this time. We also continue to expect to deliver adjusted EBITDA margins of approximately 22%, in line with last year as our pricing and cost actions are expected to help offset the incremental inflation we anticipate. Overall, our outlook reflects disciplined execution and continued focus on margin protection, cash generation and confidence in our ability to perform yet again in any type of environment. Turning to slide 11, I’ll provide an update on the pending merger of Akzo’s with Akzo Nobel. The transaction continues to progress very well, and we remain firmly on track with all of our key strategic work streams.

Both teams are highly aligned and are working together seamlessly as we prepare for the shareholder vote, regulatory approvals and day one readiness. A critical pillar of this combination is the substantial synergy opportunity we have identified. We remain confident in our ability to deliver $600 million in annual run rate synergies. Integration planning between both companies is well underway with dedicated clean teams established to identify and accelerate these synergies designed to capture value quickly and deliver a seamless transition at close. On the regulatory front, filings are underway, including the U.S. and the EU. We have filed a confidential Form F-4 with the SEC and are progressing as planned. In parallel, we are maintaining active and constructive engagement with shareholders, and we expect the shareholder votes for both companies to take place by early July.

Overall, we are excited and energized and remain confident in our ability to deliver meaningful, substantial, and sustainable value creation through the combination with Akzo Nobel. With that, I will turn it over to Chris for closing remarks.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Thanks, Carl. We’re executing well and delivering consistent performance while maintaining strong operational focus. At the same time, we made significant progress towards our combination with Akzo Nobel that we expect will strengthen our portfolio, enhance our financial profile, and create significant long-term value for shareholders. The transformational actions we have taken across procurement, fixed operating costs, and network optimization have fundamentally improved the business and protected margins to prepare for the upside. We have built a solid foundation, which is strengthened with the Akzo combination, and we will be ready when the macro rebounds. Thank you for joining us today. I will now turn the call over to the operator to open the line for Q&A.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research1: Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your keypad. To leave the queue at any time, press star two. In the interest of time, we ask you, please ask one question. Once again, that is star and one to join the queue. We will take our first question from Ghansham Panjabi with Baird. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Ghansham Panjabi, Analyst, Baird: Yeah. Thank you, operator. Good morning, everybody.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Good morning.

Ghansham Panjabi, Analyst, Baird: Good morning, Chris. You know, I guess just given the abrupt spike in raw material costs, has that dynamic changed the destocking dynamics impacting auto refinish, especially North America? Could you just update us on your view for that timeline for volumes in that business, just like tire and, you know, just broader question as it relates to whether that dynamic might start to intersect with just a broader economic slowdown given the spike in inflation and the impact on the consumer, et cetera. Thank you.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Sure, Ghansham. I’ll start, and maybe I’ll turn it over to Carl. You know, as we see it right now, we’re certainly seeing stabilization. You know, as April is closing and as we look at Q2, I would say, you know, we’re showing a bit of an increase in volumes in Q2, or let’s call it sales in Q2, and we’re certainly seeing that come through. I would say the market is pretty stable and we’re heading towards a recovery. If you look at Carl’s last slide, if you look at all the indicators, they’re all positioning the right way. Miles driven is up. Insurance costs are starting to abate, and we can start seeing that flatline. Also the used car pricing is trending the right way. All of this dynamic is heading the right way.

For us, the incremental benefit here is also what’s happening with destocking. Destocking is starting to abate, and you can start seeing that in our results in Q2 or our guide for Q2. We’re essentially seeing price mix start turn markedly positive, and it’s really driven by that.

Carl Anderson, Chief Financial Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Ghansham, just to add, in addition to all that, especially as we think about the 2nd half on price mix with some of the price actions, the teams are executing, as Chris said, that will imply positively, 2nd half, and you probably will see that in the 2nd quarter as well. We are also seeing the benefit from some of the more recent M&A transactions come through as well for the full year.

Ghansham Panjabi, Analyst, Baird: Yeah. Thank you.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: You’re welcome.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research1: Thank you. We will move next with Michael Sison with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Michael Sison, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Hey, good morning. just curious, when you think about the second half of the year, you know, third quarter, fourth quarter, you have, you know, more headwinds with raw material costs and such. You know, to get to the midpoint of guidance, you’re gonna need a not much stronger, but a stronger second half as first half. Can you sort of walk us through how you get that ramp into the third and the fourth how you think the raw material situation gets sort of handled during that time period? Thank you.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Sure, Mike. I think a very good question. If I look at Q1, you can see that, you know, we had a good quarter. We had pockets of improvements across all three businesses. You know, if you look at industrial, we had strong performance in Asia. We actually saw Europe return, which was good news. Again, one quarter doesn’t certainly set a standard here going forward, but we’re seeing positive momentum even as we look at April in industrial. Now moving to Refinish, again, we’re starting to see sales inflect and our performance, especially with destocking coming out, is a positive here too. In Mobility, the real story here is the return of CV and our performance also in CTS.

The Commercial Transportation market, if you look Q1 to Q1 of this year, was actually down 26%, we’re only down about 6%, it’s really our performance in the growth on the CTS side. Now if you project that forward, what’s driving the benefit? It’s three or four things. The first thing is we’ve already gone through with pricing across all three businesses. Then if you look at how we’re normally structured, it’s usually 48% in the front half and about 52% in the back half. If you look at us now, it’s like 45, 55. What’s the difference? It’s really three things. The first one is with destocking coming out, we expect that positive price mix in Refinish to inflect and continue through the back half. The next element of this is really the CV volumes coming back.

Again, with commercial vehicle coming back in the back half, that strengthens us in the back half, really drives good margin performance. As you know that those margins are higher and closer to our Refinish margin. The last element that we have here is a little bit of a pickup in Rev, or let’s call it markets. We expect Industrial to be up slightly and also Refinish to continue to inflect through the back half. Those are the 3 things that are driving the positive momentum in the back. Again, the offset is certainly the inflation, which we have already priced for.

Michael Sison, Analyst, Wells Fargo: Thank you.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: You’re welcome.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research1: Thank you. We will move next with John Roberts with Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Edlain Rodriguez, Analyst, Mizuho: Thank you. This is Edlain Rodriguez for John. Good morning, everyone. I mean, Chris, you talked about the 50% of mobility revenue that’s tied to the raw materials index. Can you talk about any lag, if there, if there’s any in there? Also for the remaining 50%, will prices come on time to not have any negative impact in the second half of the year?

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Yeah, that’s a great question, and it’s, you know, reflective of what I would say the team has performed. If you look at the last three years, as you know, this isn’t the first time we’ve been here. I mean, if you look through the tariffs, if you look through the Iran-Russia relations, if you look through hyperinflation, this team over the last three years has had to deal with this many other times. I think this is the innate muscle that we’ve changed at Axalta, and it’s really about driving that pricing discipline when we see it. I would say, you know, in terms of mobility, on the other 50%, we’ve already gone out with pricing. There’s a three to six-month lag with indexes, but you also get the positive on once this starts inflecting the right way.

Overall, as you can see our margins and what we’re laying out as our guide for Q2 and the rest of the year, it shows the positive performance because we absolutely believe we can capture this not only through pricing, but also the cost actions from a productivity and a purchasing initiative standpoint that we have out there. You put all that together, the whole company will be running at about almost 22 points of margin, but this business will be running at 17-18, probably some of the best performance we’ve seen in the last five, six years.

Edlain Rodriguez, Analyst, Mizuho: Okay, thank you.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research1: Thank you. We will move next with David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Emily Fusco, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Good morning. This is Emily Fusco on for David Begleiter. Just kind of turning back to Refinish and the trends you’re seeing, your competitors that have already reported have suggested share gains. Just kind of how would you characterize your positioning today or any more color you could give? Thank you.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Yeah, I think, you know, I’ve obviously stayed away on commenting with what our competitors do. Maybe I’ll give you about 3 or 4 perspectives here. The first one is specific to, I think, some of the commentary that have come out in this quarter. You know, it’s easy to show a improvement from double digits down to up double digits, so maybe it’s net zero. Moving from that and being more specific to us, we measure net body shop wins. As I described it in our Q1 performance, we saw that go up 10%, that is a record quarter for Axalta. How are we growing?

If you look at this data also over a 3 to 4 year look, you’d notice we went from about 85,000 body shops to close to north of 95,000 body shops. We continue to grow, and we can see that. Conceptually, one of the things that we are growing more is in the economy space and mainstream space. This was obviously driven by our CoverFlexx acquisition, which we did almost a year ago. That’s really enabling us to grow in this region or this area. We used to have about 9% market share. We moved north of 11%, so this has been a good story for us. As I look to the rest of the year, we believe, especially with MSOs in North America, where we can also start seeing that we’re expanding.

We already have nine out of the 12, with those MSOs, we continue to win more body shops. On top of that, as I look at the economy mainstream, I believe this is going to be a very strong year for us.

Emily Fusco, Analyst, Deutsche Bank: Thank you.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: You’re welcome, Emily Fusco.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research1: Thank you. We will take our next question from John McNulty with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research4: Hey, good morning. This is Caleb on for John. Just given some of, like, how much, like, the chemical spot rates have moved this year, can you help us understand a little bit better, like, why the inflation headwind is only, like, mid-single digits this year and not higher like many people thought? Maybe just kind of like what the raw material headwind will be as you’re exiting Q4. Thank you.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Sure. Good morning. I’ll start, and maybe I’ll hand it over to Carl. I would say there are probably about three or four things that maybe we’re similar or differentiate us from others or peers than what we’re seeing. I think first one is geographic mix. If you look at the impact, which is more European and Asia. From an Asian impact, China’s about 10% for us. Asia is, you know, let’s call it, just north of 15 points % for us. In terms of impact, it’s less for us from a geographic perspective. The second part of this is if you think about our buy, 60% of our COGS is PCOGs, and of that, about 40% to 50% are tied to oil. We’re slightly better in this case as well compared to some of our peers.

The third element of this is something that we’ve been working on for quite a while, for the last 3 years, is really our purchasing initiatives and how we have driven our material buys. We used to be 60% on spot buys. We’re now 60% on contracts. So we have a natural hedge here based on indices and the ability to manage this, at least with some visibility through the full year. I think those are 3. The incremental benefit we also have is the inventory levels. We’re sitting on 115 days. That puts us at around 4 months. If you really think about it’s different by business, and it gives us the ability to manage to push forward pricing faster or a little bit slower.

In terms of a Q2 impact, we’re seeing this to be low single digits and increasing through the back half of the year. I would say, you know, as we get through the back half of the year, this might feel like high single digits, but we will certainly be out there with pricing when we see that effect come through. Maybe I’ll turn it over to Carl.

Carl Anderson, Chief Financial Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Yeah, just maybe to add to that, you know, if you look at just 2026, obviously first quarter we performed better, we were low single digits. That benefit as we think about our raw material performance, as Chris referenced, we do expect that for the full year to be mid-single digits. It’s really gonna be a focus and more of a where we’re gonna be going as it relates to what oil is gonna be doing a little bit longer term.

Whether it’s mid-single digits or potentially a little bit higher, that is, we’re exiting the year, as we look at the business, we expect to continue to drive productivity within how we manage our purchasing spend, as well as other cost measures that we look to deploy.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research4: Okay. Thank you.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: You’re welcome.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research1: Thank you. We will take our next question from Adeo with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research3: Hi, you have Rock Hoffman on for Matt. I think your slides had called out mid-single-digit pricing for Refinish. Is that a full year comment or a 2Q to 4Q comment? How can I kind of square that away with the negative price mix you saw in 1Q? Also, any updates on kind of the Axalta Irus Mix rollout would be helpful as well.

Carl Anderson, Chief Financial Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Yeah, sure. Thanks for the question. If you think of the first quarter, pure price was about low single digits, up about 2% on a year-over-year basis. Most of what you saw as far as in the quarter related to the negative impact was on mix. As we look forward, some of the pricing actions the team is putting into place here in the second quarter as well as in the second half. Those numbers would be for what the full impact would be with the total gross pricing that we’re going after specifically for our Refinish business. Really as relates to Irus Mix, we’re pretty excited about that. The teams are executing very well. We’re nearing a 1,000 in total installations.

It will continue to be a big focus for Refinish team as we look to get, you know, that out more broadly here in North America.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research3: Thank you.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research1: Thank you. We will take our next question from Michael Harrison with Seaport Research Partners.

Michael Harrison, Analyst, Seaport Research Partners: Hi, good morning.

Carl Anderson, Chief Financial Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Morning.

Michael Harrison, Analyst, Seaport Research Partners: Was hoping that Chris, maybe you could give us a little more detail on what you’re seeing in commercial vehicle. Just some thoughts on the timing of this big swing in Class 8. Maybe some more detail on what’s going on in Commercial Transportation solutions. I assume that that’s kind of the fruit of several quarters’ or years’ worth of effort to build out that business, but maybe give us some more detail on the momentum you’re seeing and any specific customer wins or markets or applications you would call out.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Sure. Thanks, Mike. Great question. I’d love to. You know, as we look at commercial vehicle and obviously, you know, coming from my past, it’s certainly very cyclical and as it goes down and goes below a replacement demand, you always expect it in a few, let’s call it few quarters later to always pick up, and we can certainly see that pick up. Q1 was very weak. As you can see from many of the OEs that have reported, if you do a Q-over-Q comp, you can see the decline. As we get into Q2, we can already see those numbers pick up in terms not only from a from a forecast perspective, but also what we see in April.

One of the things that we did is, you know, as we got into the business and certainly a credit to the mobility team, you know, in terms of we had such a strong presence and such leadership on the OE side of Class 8. We wondered, the team wondered why we could take that technology and certainly match it in everything that’s CTS. If you think about this space, it’s really what we do in specialty, what we do in off-highway, what we do in military, and also whatever we do in RVs or the recreational space. They set a plan to really grow in this, in this space. Just to give you a perspective, the overall market is about $3.5 billion, and we only have about 7% market share.

We saw this as a great opportunity to grow. That’s certainly the fruits of all that work is what you’re seeing coming through in Q1. It will certainly continue to come through as we go through the rest of the quarters. I’m not here to probably provide what our targets are gonna be for the rest of the year, but I just wanna point out, you can see the performance again, as I said earlier, coming through in Q1. The market’s down 26 points. We’re just down 6 points. That offset really happened from all the wins that we had on the CTS side. Now going forward, the additional space, the opportunities here is this isn’t just focused in North America. We’re also looking at how we can really expand this globally.

This is certainly, I think, something that’s a bright star in our mobility business. The incremental difference we also made here was add capacity. Our CTS and our Refinish business actually come out of our Refinish lines and our Refinish plants. We needed to add capacity and really make sure that we were ready once we took this volume that once CV returned, that we can ensure that we can protect and perform for those customers. We’ve certainly done that. You know, the record capital investments that you have seen, part of that was to ensure that we’re structurally in the right place for this business. I think there’s far more upside here in this business as we go forward, and I look forward to tell you more about it as the rest of the year progresses.

Michael Harrison, Analyst, Seaport Research Partners: Sounds good. Thanks very much.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: You’re welcome.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research1: Thank you. We will move next with Patrick Cunningham with Citi.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research2: Hey, guys. Good morning. This is actually Rachel Lee on for Patrick. I know that you’re still guiding to greater than $500 million for the full-year free cash flow. Given the potential for mid-single-digit inflation and working capital requirements, how are you managing inventory levels and receivables through the balance of the year?

Carl Anderson, Chief Financial Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Yeah, thanks, Rachel, for the question. I think maybe we’ll start in the first quarter. You know, we were pleased with the performance. If you think about our cash conversion cycle, we improved by about 6 days year-over-year in the first quarter. As I think what is in front of us for the rest of the year, as Chris said, we are pricing. If I look at kind of what the impact’s gonna be at DSOs, we’re gonna get out in front of that a little bit. I think it’s even with the mid-single digit inflation kind of running through and getting into inventory, we’re, you know, we still feel very, very confident in our ability to deliver on free cash flow.

You know, we’re gonna have lower interest expense this year on a year-over-year basis. We continue to look to improve overall cash conversion cycles. You know, building off what we did in the first quarter, and I’m hoping that we will be able to improve that even a little bit more on a year-over-year comparison as we move throughout the year.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: I just wanted to add to that.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research2: Yeah.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Maybe just to add to a few more comments. I think really wanna add to the performance that we saw in Q1, really a credit to the finance team and Carl for just driving some enormous performance in interest rates, and obviously we’ll get that tailwind for the rest of the year.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research2: Thank you very much.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: You’re welcome.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research1: Thank you. We will move next with Chris Parkinson with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research: Great. Thank you so much. I realize you can’t necessarily jump the gun in terms of the Akzo deal, but in terms of your own cost execution and just navigating what I think most of us would characterize as fairly difficult markets over the last few years, is there any kind of update on your thoughts or the trajectory of the synergy target with the companies? Presumably, you’ve still been in touch with them, you’ve been executing on your own. Just any quick update there would be very helpful. Thank you.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Good morning, Christopher. Good question. Certainly, you know, I think on both sides, we’re managing costs. I would say, you know, Greg and I have been working with a clean team environment. We’ve had 2 exceptional teams on both sides work on this, especially as we get closer to the vote and also start heading towards close to really define what is the work streams. We’ve hired the help of some external consultants so that we can keep this very clean and also look at what actions. The more and more time both of us spend on this, we can really get comfortable with the actions and be able to reiterate that the $600 million is just the floor.

I would say, you know, as we get past the vote, we’re going to spend far more time on really driving the action so that we can hit a gate running when we close. I would say, you know, every day we spend, and we’re on calls weekly, we get more and more comfortable with the fact that this will create enormous value. I mean, I. You think about all the different multitude of buckets that we can focus on. In terms of scale in purchasing, we go from $2 billion to $6.5 billion plus. There’s an enormous ability here from scale, what we’re doing right, what they’re doing right, what the overall scale can provide.

Then from that, you can move to supply chain synergies, what we can do jointly from the fact that between the two of us, we have almost 400 warehouses and locations, and how we could improve all of that and drive utilization, how we’re approaching the same customers. Then you go into the duplicity of everything that you have in SG&A. Finally, you know, even beyond that, the incremental opportunities when you look at indirect and all the other cost buckets. I would say there’s just a basket that is provides a great opportunity to work on once we become together as a combined company.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research: Thank you.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: You’re welcome, Chris.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research1: Thank you. We will move next with Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research5: Hi, this is Matt.

Lucas Beaumont, Analyst, UBS: Thank you.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: You’re welcome.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research1: Thank you. Our next question comes from Joshua Spector with UBS. Please go ahead.

Lucas Beaumont, Analyst, UBS: Good morning. This is Lucas Beaumont in for Josh. I mean, it seems like there’s kinda been a shift amongst, I guess, both you guys and the rest of the coatings peers towards like greater index linking the pricing to raw material shifts. I guess that’s probably happening more in the coatings businesses that seem to have less pricing power compared to those with more. I guess while it sort of might reduce shorter-term earnings volatility at the front of the cycle, I mean, it then seems like it’s set up to kinda give the pricing back on the back end and might like reduce the net price cost benefit that you’re capturing over the full cycle.

I mean, I probably would have said this was like a feature as opposed to a bug in the sense that you’re getting more price cost over time, and it’s helping kind of drive your earnings growth in the medium term. Do you think this shift is one maybe just give us your view on how you see this shifting or not shifting overall? I mean, how do you think that supports or I guess impairs medium-term earnings growth of the cycle? Thanks.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Well, maybe I’ll start and then hand it over to Carl. I would have to disagree with that a bit in primarily because of my view on what the indexing provides. What the indexing provides is more visibility and control so that you can price. As I look at our business model in two of our, out of our three businesses, this let’s call it the indexing, is not tied to that. When we talk about our refinish business and when we talk about our industrial business, the best part of what we do is we see the visibility from a purchasing aspect, and then we are able to go right in and price. As you can see with what we have already defined in terms of pricing, both in our industrial and refinish business, we’ve already done that.

We’ve already priced in Q1. We’re already seeing the results. That’s why we can already target almost 22 points of margin for Q2. Moving into our mobility business, that’s where there’s indexing tied for 50% of the business to RMI indexing. Here your comment is valid with the exception of the fact that you do get it through the on a lag basis. On the rest of the business, we are able to price, and we have done it consistently through what I would call it, through the last three risk factors that we have faced in the last three years. You know, whether it’s the inflation that we saw because of the tariffs, whether it was the just the pure hyperinflation that we saw in North America or whether it’s the Iran conflict or for that matter now, the Middle East conflict.

My simple perspective here is we set a target that was 300-400 basis points higher than where we were just 3 years ago. In our A plan, we set a target of 21 points of margin, we have been performing at that margin even through all these 4 crises at north of 21%-22% for the last. Certainly that is reflective on our EBITDA performance for the last 3 years. Now I’ll turn it to Carl if I missed something.

Carl Anderson, Chief Financial Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: I didn’t think you missed anything, but just as a reminder, during this whole time period when we really started to increase the overall RMIs we had in place in our mobility business, we more than doubled the margin during that time period. If you look back over the last, probably four or five years, the overall margin profile of Axalta has expanded 600 basis points. We invest in best margins in the business, in the coatings business. We feel very good with our strategy and how we’re executing.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research1: Thank you. At this time, we have reached our allotted time for questions. I will now turn the call back over to Chris Villavarayan for closing comments.

Chris Villavarayan, Chief Executive Officer, Axalta Coating Systems: Well, to everyone, thank you for calling in and certainly for your interest. I certainly wanna start by congratulating the team for a good Q1, a solid Q1. We’re certainly looking forward to Q2, we believe that we have great plans to execute here, including working with Greg and the Akzo team towards our merger. With that, thank you.

Chris Parkinson, Analyst, Wolfe Research1: Thank you. This brings us to the end of today’s meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.