Axia Energia Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Call - Turnaround Declared Complete, BRL 8.3bn Dividend and Capex Ramp to BRL 12-14bn
Summary
Management said the company’s traditional turnaround is complete, and 2025 marked a transition from repair mode to growth mode. Axia paid a record BRL 8.3 billion in dividends, closed the Eletronuclear stake sale, recognized BRL 2 billion of deferred tax assets, and reported adjusted income and EBITDA gains driven by portfolio management, transmission wins, and a large uplift in investments. Capital spending rose to BRL 9.6 billion in 2025 with a clear plan to lift annual investments to BRL 12-14 billion in 2026-27.
Still, the call carried caveats. Several one-off and timing items affected quarterly results, daily price volatility and sub-market risk are rising, and AI has only marginal impact on cost savings so far. Management stresses disciplined capital allocation, a five year view for dividends and buybacks, and a measured approach to new auctions including batteries, while moving to Novo Mercado to tighten governance and broaden investor access.
Key Takeaways
- Management declared the company’s turnaround concluded, and the 2026 budget reflects that shift from restructuring to growth.
- Axia paid record dividends of BRL 8.3 billion for 2025, a level management framed as a landmark distribution.
- Investments jumped to BRL 9.6 billion in 2025, company guidance now targets BRL 12-14 billion annually for 2026-27 driven by transmission works and reinforcements.
- Axia completed the sale of its Eletronuclear stake and divested remaining thermal plants, actions management says reduce investor perceived risk.
- Deferred tax assets of BRL 2 billion were recognized in the quarter, contributing materially to the headline income increase.
- Adjusted net income for the quarter rose to BRL 1.2 billion, up 141% year on year, driven by higher generation margins and lower P&MSO versus prior periods.
- Regulatory/operational noise drove Q4 items: BRL 250 million wind reimbursement, BRL 225 million quarter-to-quarter transmission variation, BRL 108 million higher profit sharing, and BRL 60 million rebranding cost.
- Company won multiple transmission auction lots, with committed NL capex of BRL 1.6 billion that should yield RAP of about BRL 140 million per year.
- Trading and generation strategy benefitted margins, generation margin reached roughly BRL 101 per MWh, but comparisons are muddied by timing and contract mix differences.
- Management cautioned that rising intra-day price modulation is structural, driven by intermittent supply and demand volatility, and hydrology will keep near-term prices sensitive.
- AI’s current contribution to PMSO reduction is small, management flagged large untapped potential but no material savings realized yet.
- Employee ownership program enrolled 1,644 employees, about 22% of staff, with most participants holding only Axia shares and a three year lockup, signaling internal confidence.
- Axia plans to propose migration to Novo Mercado to unify share classes, improve governance metrics, and potentially enhance liquidity and investor access; shareholder meetings targeted for April 1.
- The company is actively participating in capacity, transmission, and upcoming battery auctions, with a >4 GW battery pipeline under development but management said it is too early to size bids or assume economics.
- There is a reconciliation friction between published allocations using MRE/GSF assumptions and realized sales each quarter, management attributes this to assured energy conventions and contract GSF clauses, and expects easing by 2027.
Full Transcript
Unknown, Conference Moderator/Operator, AXIA Energia: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Axia Energia’s conference for the discussion of the results of the fourth quarter of 2025. Present here today are Mr. Ivan de Souza Monteiro, President of Axia Energia; Mr. Eduardo Ayama, Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations; Mr. Antônio Varejão de Godoy, Executive Vice President of Operations and Security; Ms. Camila Araújo, Executive Vice President of Governance and Sustainability; Mr. Élio Wolff, Executive Vice President of Strategy and Business Development; Mr. Ítalo Freitas, Executive Vice President of Commercialization and Energy Solutions; Mr. Juliano Dantas, Executive VP of Technology and Innovation; Mr. Marcelo de Siqueira Freitas, Executive VP of Legal Affairs; Mr. Renato Carreira, Executive VP of Learning, People, and Services; Mr. Robson Pinheiro de Campos, Executive VP of Expansion Engineering; and Mr. Rodrigo Link, Executive VP of Regulation, Institutional, and Markets.
We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded and will be made available on the company’s investor relations website, along with the presentation being shared today, both in Portuguese and English. To view the presentation of the slides in your preferred language, select the corresponding tab located in the upper left corner of the screen: Portuguese screen for Portuguese or English screen for the English version. For those who require simultaneous translation, a tool is available via the globe icon labeled Interpretation, located at the bottom center of your screen. Upon selecting it, please choose your preferred language. For those listening to the video conference in English, there is an option to mute the original audio in Portuguese by clicking Mute Original Audio.
For the Q&A session, if you would like to ask a question, please use the Q&A icon at the bottom of your screen, providing your name, company, and question. As per our standard procedure, your name will be announced so that you can ask your question live. At that time, a request to unmute your microphone will appear on your screen. If you prefer not to open your microphone live, please inform this in the Q&A field so that our operator can read it aloud. Before we proceed, we would like to clarify that any statements made during this conference call regarding the company’s business outlook, projections, operational and financial targets, constitute the beliefs and assumptions of Axia Energia’s executive management, as well as on information currently available to the company.
Forward-looking statements are not guarantee of performance, as they involve risks and uncertainties, and therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors should understand that general economic conditions and other operational factors may affect the results expressed in such forward-looking statements. We now invite Mr. Ivan Monteiro, President of AXIA Energia, to begin the presentation. Please, you may proceed.
Speaker 0: Good morning, everyone, thank you for attending AXIA’s conference call for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the year 2025. This was a year marked by a series of accomplishments and the construction of what we call a base for the company’s sustained growth. In the executive boards, the feeling is that the turnaround, the traditional turnaround is concluded. The budget for 2026 already reflects the conclusion of this turnaround. Let’s talk a little bit about the deliveries during 2025. There was a consistent reduction of liabilities and the trajectory of the reduction of the compulsory loans and the liabilities related to that, as well as PMSO. Here, I’d like to make the first comment about PMSO.
The contribution we have today in the use of artificial intelligence in the reduction of PMSO is still small, there’s a huge potential to be tapped into in the coming years. We also began to change the level of investments. The company that invested around BRL 2.5 billion-3 billion per year, five years ago, has a growth trajectory, consolidating at a level above BRL 10 million, BRL 9.6 million in 2025, and now more than BRL 10 million in the projection for the coming years that we released earlier this morning. Another landmark in this consistent deliveries was the agreement with the government and the sale of our stake at Eletronuclear.
Those were the two important moves in what we call the reduction of risk perceived by our investor when they decide to acquire assets, both by buying shares or fixed income assets by AXIA. Another important evolution relates to energy allocation and portfolio management and our relationship with the customers. Those are the highlights. In capital allocation and growth, I’d like to point out the volume of dividends paid out this year related to the results of 2025, BRL 8.3 billion. Just to give you an idea, BRL 8.3 was the nominal value or the nominal market value of the previous known Eletrobras in 2016.
Another important challenge in this acceleration of investments is the formation of a pipeline that is robust, in which we express low, very low inorganic growth, but that also becomes part of our vision for the future, and a growth in the assets that we know very well, our own assets, that we already have environmental licenses for. We know the behavior of those assets, bringing modernization through the reinforcement and improvement investments that we’re making as a consequence of the win in the transmission auction. We continue to seek the incorporation of new technologies available to improve the management, not only of the assets, but all of the set, and the future protection in our relationship with customers and the management of our energy portfolio, where I highlight the small contribution in the PMSO reduction through the use of AI.
Going to the stage that takes a little bit longer, that’s the cultural transformation phase, I’d like to point that this change that we promoted in the name, now the company Axia, it’s not a change of name only. It’s not only transforming and having a new logo. It’s a change in posture, it’s a ownership culture, a management that is fully focused on generating value, creating value. Finally, maximizing and reaffirming our commitment to governance, we have a proposal to migrate to Novo Mercado, with the meetings expected to take place, where the shareholders, holders will discuss the director’s proposal. I thank all of the company’s employees and the market’s trust, and the performance of the company’s shares in 2025 and the beginning of 2026, and I now turn the floor to our financial director, our CFO, Eduardo Haiama. Thank you. Thank you, Ivan.
Good morning, everyone. Before we begin the presentation on slide seven, I would like to point, as Ivan just mentioned, that for us, it’s the conclusion of the turnaround and a step moving forward, reflects in the publication of the annual results. I think it must have been the first time that the company was able to publish with quality, the results in the month of February. When our results have always been published at the end of March or by mid-March, of course, this is not only an accounting... a work of the accounting department, but it’s a huge work done by the entire company, generating controls, processes, getting things to flow more smoothly, and that results in this publication and this release in the month of February.
Getting into slide 7, the key highlights part was already mentioned, the allocation of the energy portfolio and the execution of the capital allocation methodology, with record dividends of BRL 8.3 billion, also the consistent increase in investments, winning again, a series of lots in the transmission auction in 2025, and reaching the highest investment level since 2015 in the company. In terms of portfolio management, we completed the sale of the thermal power plant and executed the sale of our stake at Eletronuclear. In efficiency, in addition to PMSO, that Ivan already discussed, we are developing supplier chains that are international, we are certain that we’ll be a lot more resilient when this investment level grows further, as we foresee.
In people and culture, something we’re very proud of, and I’ll talk more about later, was the launch of the first stock purchase program with a very high participation of our employees, showing their confidence in the path that the company is following. Finally, today, 100% of our managers already have goals aligned with our strategy, thinking always in the medium and long term. On slide 8, getting into the financial highlights, investment in the quarter reached almost BRL 4 billion, the growth of up almost 30% year-on-year. In a generation margin, there was growth again, reaching BRL 101 per megawatt hour, in line with our strategy that we talked about in the first quarter of 2025. That was by protecting a potential drop in prices because of rains that were approaching at that time.
Starting in March, the scenario changed, and at that time, we said that we would then be able to reap the optimum results in the second and to fourth quarter that consolidated what we talked about in the first quarter. This quarter, we recognized BRL 12 million in the activation of tax assets. Everything, with the conclusion of the turnaround phase and a more constructive view that we have in the generation segment, shows our view in terms of future profitability and the use of these assets, so this tax credit, over the year, as the company’s profitability increases. The transmission auction that I mentioned, we won some lots with the investment. The investments, the NL numbers are BRL 1.6 billion, and once that’s concluded, that’s the RAP of BRL 140 million per year.
Finally, our adjusted income reached BRL 1.2 billion, up 141% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. On slide nine, talking a little bit about our revenue. It grew in transmission. Part of it is a reflection of the adjustment, portions that were lower, but also an increase in the reinforcement and improvement revenues. In generation, there was a decrease, but it’s more due to the sale of the thermal plants that were still in operation in 2024. In 2025, in the month of October, there was one single thermal plant still operating. In terms of our EBITDA, we present here an increase, and this is a result of the increase in contribution margin and generation, excluding thermal plants of almost BRL 400 million, as well as the reduction of our PMSO costs.
On slide 10, we show the same EBITDA of BRL 5.7 million, showing basically four items that we did not adjust in the results, but generated a lot of questions previously. Basically, the lower revenue with the reimbursement of wind farms in the fourth quarter, that’s basically when the wind plants that have contracts with distributors, they produce less. We end up having to pay back the larger, higher revenue that you made. That’s BRL 250 million end of fourth quarter of 2025. There’s a variation of BRL 225 million in transmission revenue from the third to the fourth quarter of 2025. These are revenues that are temporary. They come in and out. We receive more, but then when we get to the following adjustment, it goes back. It’s kind of transient.
As for cost, to align it even further, all of the company’s workforce and work to seek exceptional performance, we expanded the potential range of the profit-sharing payment and the long-term incentive program for the company. Considering the targets, that was a very good year for the company. That resulted in an increase of BRL 108 million in this line, compared to, for example, 2024, with the old previous metrics. Finally, with our change in brand, our rebranding in the quarter, when we implemented this rebranding, we spent BRL 60 million. If we excluded these events, we would have achieved a regulatory EBITDA of almost BRL 6,000,400. On slide 11, talking about income, I think the main highlight here is the recognition of the deferred tax asset that I mentioned, of BRL 2 billion.
Considering this a fact, our income growth would have been 140%. Slide 12, we show, as Ivan discussed, the evolution of investments over the years, and look at how interesting this is. In 2022, we invested BRL 5.4 million in reinforcement and improvement of the grid or the network, the transmission grid. The investments we’re making now at the plants exceed that amount already. We invested BRL 9.6 billion, and we are expecting for 2026 and 2027 to reach an annual level between BRL 12 million and BRL 14 million as a result of the beginning of the works of the auctions we have won in recent years, and the growth that should continue in the line of reinforcements and improvements in transmission.
Moving to trading on Slide 14, we demonstrated we have our resources in each of the sub-markets, this is interesting to understand how the seasonality behaved in all of these over the quarters, already including purchases and subtracting those long-term contracted sales, the ACR sales. That reflects, when we look at Slide 15, in the evolution of our generation margin. The generation margin, when we look at the fourth quarter of 2024, excluding this aspect of the reimbursement of wind plants, that in the comparison is not...
It’s apples and oranges, of BRL 250 million, we would have had an increase of 25% in our generation margin, and that we have to exclude thermal power plants in the 4Q 2024 and January, on the 4Q 2025, showing here that it’s a very well thought out and executed strategy to trade or sell our generation portfolio. On Slide 16, I won’t get into details of the chart on the left. I think it’s a reflection of what we discussed in the previous slide. To show you a little bit for 2026, considering our plans and the physical guarantees that we have with them, using GSF, the expected GSF, according to CCEE expectations and the physical guarantees, as, in seasonality based on MRE.
As you can see, in the first quarter, we have basically almost 14 gigawatts of energy going to a valley in the third quarter of 2026 to 8. This is mainly due to the expected GSF for the second half, starting to grow again in the fourth quarter to 11 gigawatts. Moving on to slide 18, with the culture and ESG agenda. As I had talked about, we launched the first share purchase program, where we had 1,644 employees becoming new shareholders of the company, and that represents 22% of our total employees. What’s interesting, when we look into it, these people, 54% of them, more or less, of the people who bought shares, only have AXIA shares. They only own AXIA shares. This 1,600, it’s the first time, well, almost 40%...
It’s the first time almost 40% of them bought shares. That shows a strong element of our employees’ confidence in the company’s long-term strategy, and these shares remain restricted during a period of 3 years, okay? It’s not a short-term version, it’s a long-term view. As for the compensation program, as was already discussed, we’ve updated this program to reinforce the alignment between performance, value generation, prioritizing the company’s strategy. Both this and the previous, our opinion reinforces that what we’re seeking is this sense of ownership from each person. On slide 19, talk a little bit about the ESG agenda. We’ve proposed the migration to Novo Mercado, we’ll talk a little bit about this in the next slide. With that, I think we’ll improve greatly our governance, which was already good. It’s going to get even better.
We launched a calculator available for anyone to measure their GHG emissions, also providing solutions to help reduce or neutralize them. We’re very proud to say that we are now on the A list of the CDP, which is a global benchmark for corporate environmental assessment, very much in line with our Net Zero 2030 trajectory. Again, we also made it in The Sustainability Yearbook 2026 of S&P Global. Slide 20, finally, just to detail that we’re going to have our meeting in the 1st of April this year to discuss the entry, the migration to Novo Mercado, the highest governance level at the Brazilian stock market, B3. With that, the shareholders will have a right to vote, all the same political rights and the same economic rights and dividends, with no distinction.
In our opinion, by doing that, we improve our optimization to reach the capital allocation, improve attraction for potential new investors with better ESG and ratings as well. By combining the different share classes, we improve liquidity and the overall risk perception. I believe with this, we can move on to the questions and answer session. Thank you. We will now begin the questions and answer session for investors and analysts. If you would like to ask a question, please provide your name and company via the Q&A icon located at the bottom of your screen. We kindly ask that you present all of your questions at once, and wait for the company’s response. To submit a question in writing, simply use the Q&A icon and include your name and company. Our first question, Daniel Travitzky Safra. Daniel, you may go ahead.
Hello, thank you for this opportunity. I have two questions on my side. The first, about the very high income that you reported this quarter. I’d like to ask how this result may reflect in future dividend payouts and capital allocation for the company? That would be my first question. The second question: looking at the auction pipeline that we have this year, both in generation LRCAP in March, in the future for batteries, and the transmission auctions that will be very relevant this year, I’d like to understand how the company sees these opportunities. If you can give us some color on how you see that. Thank you. Thank you, Danielle.
To begin, in terms of capital allocation and dividends, we worked a lot in the company’s structural result and its predictability, and that makes us very comfortable with what we may come to capture and what we did capture in terms of energy price. Those conditions that were under the management’s, the director’s management, were worked on, and the prediction for the future don’t give a lot of highlights for the net income of the fourth quarter. I would like to mention the company’s consistent results since it was privatized, with a capture an intense work to reduce liabilities, reduce PMSO, adjust the strategy, and also a change in culture that was a lot, detailed a lot by Ailma.
I’ll turn the floor to him, and then Helio, to talk a little bit about our strategy in the future auctions, both in battery and capacity auctions, and transmission. Ailma, please. Thank you, Danielle. As for dividends, considering what happened with the activation and what was acquired, it doesn’t change with our capital allocation methodology. Since we have that capital allocation in dividends, and buyback, or new investments, we always look at a 5-year horizon based on a prediction of cash flow, leverage, always using conservative prices for the uncontracted energy part. With that, we check whether or not we have room for that to allocate more capital, paying more dividends, or buybacks, or more investments.
The income itself, that was due to this IR activation, it’s just a constructed view in the very long term for the company, not on the short term. On the short term, this methodology is what goes. I mean, as Ivan talked about, we have a lot of things that help in our risk perception, but profit or income alone is not the driver to pay out more or less. That’s our view. It’s always from the 5-year view. Thank you, Danielle. Good morning, everyone. We mentioned in the past that the transmission auction activity is a continuous activity that we do. Since 2023, we’ve been actively participating in the auctions. If you have an order of magnitude, we offered about 39 lots transmission since 2023.
The group, the AXIA group, participates, always being competitive with a lot of responsibility and a strong focus on value generation. We participated in 34 of these 39. We study all of them. If not all, we may not participate in some. We always do that based on technical objective factors. In the 34 that we participate, we succeeded in 9. That’s the recent history. Of course, that this background, the future is not based on that. That shows how competitive we are. We’ve been growing our capacity to be competitive, especially in terms of engineering and supply. That’s essential. The company’s DNA with its engineering capacity. That is something we bring to 2026, of course. In 2026, we generate, in a more organized way, at least 3 auctions, maybe even 4, 5. In March, there are 2 already we counted, right.
The first one is the capacity auction, where we are able to participate on the hydropower plant. We see that in a very good line. Ivan Monteiro mentioned that about the pipeline. In the hydropower capacity alone, we look at the potential income in the medium long term, maybe even exceeding 6 gigawatts. A portion of that, of course, will participate and try to enable these projects in the auction of March 18. Transmission, it’s the same line as we mentioned. We always study all of the lots. There’s an auction now, March 27. Another pre-scheduled for October. There may be a sub-auction or something with a different player that may occur in April or May. We may look at it as well. This is a continued activity. We’re always looking into it and studying.
Once we get close to the auction, we decide how we’re going to participate or which lots we’re going to actively bid on. We always say that very comfortable, always focused on value generation. Finally, without a date yet, but already expected, there will be the battery auction that we’re also looking. We have been studying it since the pipeline. We already exceeded with 4 gigawatts of pipeline in batteries. We want to see the rules and understand how much of these 4 gigawatts we are actually able to offer. The group has been increasing its pipeline progressively to be able to enable this with discipline, value generation, and the auctions are a wonderful opportunity to materialize those investments. I think that’s it. Thank you, Helio. Thank you. Next question, Bruno Amorim. Yes, from GS. Bruno, please go ahead. Good morning, everyone.
Congratulations on this results. Thank you for the opportunity. I have two questions. The first one about the energy price dynamics. I understand that there is a view that structurally, the energy price is going up, and it may continue to increase, but on the other hand, we are having a drier year. In the cyclic point of view, that puts prices at a higher level. My question is: How have you been operating in this environment? Are you making the most of the cyclic dynamics when it’s more favorable, or is the strategy still to wait for a materialization of higher prices looking forward? How do you think about the cycle in the short term and the long term? The second question is to understand, as you can open this, but how do you see the opportunities coming from data centers?
If you see, if you want to have discussions going on, or if you understand this as an opportunity for the country and the industry, the demand of electricity over the next 3 to 5 years, or is it too soon to tell? Thank you. Thank you for your question. I’ll turn the floor to Pedro to talk about this view. OPSMG, I’d like to hear from Italo as well, and he can complement to our strategy for data centers. Thank you for your question. Thank you, Bruno. Good morning. Actually, we have been facing, in recent years, a change in the dynamics of price in the energy market, and some period in 2022, 2023, until mid 2024, price, a vision of prices very close to the lowest levels, including lower, longer term view.
Starting in the second half of 2024, we saw a big change and something that didn’t exist so much in our industry as the volatility in the same day. In terms of reliability, flexibility, the prices ended up not reflecting that. There was no hour metering, but even in the first few years, we didn’t have this perception. I also think that the move to reduce subsidies, going in the right decision to have a better signaling of prices, have also contributed to this change of perception in the market. We came from a very different level that the industry saw in 2023 and 2024 for coming years, compared to what we have today. We see that not only in this current year, but in one, two, three.
Naturally, for this year, as you said, we’re a little bit more pressured in terms of price because of the hydrology. Until January, we had a weak rain season. In February, we had an increase that I think brought some a break for the industry, more reliability for the year, but nothing so far that brings any structural transformation in terms of prices throughout the year. On our side, in portfolio management, we do consider all of these scenarios. It’s a fact that now we have a lot more volatility than we had in the past, and that means that prices in the next 1, 2 months may shift up and down strongly. A point that we consider with a lot of attention in our portfolio management is the sub-market that you know in our portfolio.
We have it very well distributed in the sub-markets, with part of our energy in the north and northeast. We do pay a lot of attention. In January, February, having higher prices, it was very much similar to the sub-markets. March is a month where we will probably see more of a distance of higher than BRL 100. We adopt a position that protects us from this volatility, from this sub-market risk. In the long term, we do see a bigger price perception. We’re always open to discuss with customers and long-term proposals and long-term prices. As we integrate and them negotiations make sense, we move forward. Thank you. Pedro, please. Thank you, Bruno. Good morning.
Just to add to what Limp said, in terms of prices, I think Brazil now is entering a new phase in the electricity sector with this volatility. A lot due to a lack of capacity to meet or make up for the flexibility of the system with the intermittent, for example, especially in distributed generation, and this tends to grow naturally as a technology that has been permeating this new electrical system in Brazil. It’s a structural aspect that we see a price increase until there is the exception of a technology that may stabilize the system. You will naturally see a price trajectory, especially considering Brazil, with a hydrology-dependent matrix, as Limp clarified, and in a year like that, where January was tight, already puts some price pressure.
In this sense as well, of course, we see this curtailment problem, especially in the Northeast. In this condition, the need for the power is huge in that region, and that makes it an interesting environment for those data centers that you mentioned, Bruno. We are talking to some data center players, large, major players. The question is, today, all of the infrastructure challenge that Brazil needs to adapt in order to be able to receive this big load data center, a large data center, hyperscale, more than 500 mega or 1 gigawatt or 1.5 giga, brings operational challenges to the system, especially in the application. If it’s a training application or inference. If it’s training, it may simply stop overnight. The frequency of the system may go down. ONS is not prepared for that.
There is a structural challenge that must be adjusted to receive these big loads. Naturally, Brazil, especially the Northeast, it’s a region that will help a lot to have a large load. We are talking to some players and looking at all of these points, the operational points that need to be adjusted. Excellent. Thank you. Noting that in order to ask questions, click on the Q&A icon at the lower part of the screen, and inform your name and company. Next question, Fillipe Andrade, Itaú BBA. Please, Fillipe, go ahead. Good morning. I’m here with the AXIA team. I’d like to address 2 topics, if I may. First, talking about trading. The company presented a contribution market on the ACL, the short-term market, close to BRL 300 per megawatt hour.
In our view, that is closer to BRL 30 per megawatt hour. Considering the price level that we’re seeing in the first quarter of 2026, what is the level that the company sees in terms of modulation? The same level or any change? How do you see the impact of El Niño in the prices in the second half of the year? Finally, also, if you can talk about the best expectation of the management for a potential conclusion of the Novo Mercado migration process. Thank you. Felipe, thank you. As for relating to trading, I will ask Limpey’s, I’m sorry, Raiama’s participation for Novo Mercado’s migration. Raiama, Camilla, please feel free. Felipe, first, you were asking about modulation.
In the fourth quarter, we even have in our presentation, in the attachments, that the fourth quarter generated close to BRL 15 per megawatt hour for the hydropower plants. When you sell that to energy, that we have allocated, it will run at around BRL 300 million, maybe a little bit less in the quarter. The trend going forward, obviously, as the system is have more insertion, as Italo said, with more intermittent sources and demands that may have peaks due to heat waves, and it may grow over time. Going forward, I’d like to ask the expert to talk about this a little bit more. Yeah, even as I mentioned earlier, today, we have an increasing presence of this daily modulation, the price volatility at different hours of the day. For example, in February 4th, that was a very atypical time.
At this time, it got to BRL 1,600, and modulation exceeded BRL 40. Today, we’re looking, on average, BRL 15-BRL 20, a slight increase in this first quarter compared to the fourth quarter, and the trend is for it to grow in the next few years. Of course, that new technologies, capacity auctions, storage systems in the future end up maybe attenuating or mitigating this in a relevant way. Today, the price indication and the daily PLD results bring this effect in modulation. That’s always positive for hydropower plants because of the role they play and the characteristics of that source that is the only one, in fact, that provides this flexibility that the system requires so much, and this must be valued.
Now talking about Novo Mercado, Felipe, our expectation in April 1st is to have the general meeting with the Class A, B, preferred shares, and common shares. I think the market showed a little bit of what the meeting should be. I think it was very well-received. The share prices went up, I think even you and the analysts present here, I think everybody understood this movement, that it’s part of the normal, natural move in the company’s current stage. We are relatively confident with this process, expecting to be able to unify these, but only with the future agenda going forward. Camilla, if you would like to add? I think Raiama mentioned it well. We believe in the model that we are using for the approvals. The meeting in April 1st, it’s April Fools, but it’s a real deal.
We’re going to hold the three meetings with a positive expectation, considering the results we’re seeing and the comments we’re receiving about this move. Thank you. Excellent. Thank you. Our next question, Raul Cavendish from XP. Please, Raul, you may go ahead. Good morning, can you hear me well? Can you hear me now? Well, good morning. Yes, we do. Please go ahead. Thank you for the call. I have a question here. Thinking about the energy allocations that you disclose in your materials and considering GSF and so on, I’ve been noticing a difficulty to reconcile the volume of energy sold in the quarter versus the allocations that you published ahead of time.
Is there any elements that is not captured in the disclosure of allocation that impacts the energy sale volume, we’re not able to model, for example, trading activities or something like that, to help us be more accurate in our modeling over the quarters, even if the annual view doesn’t really change that much? Thank you, Raul. I’ll turn to Eduardo Haiama. Thank you, Raul. There’s an information here that’s very confidential, that’s our assured energy. When we disclose the information, we disclose what’s in the MRE. That’s what we’ve included in the slide even. From physical assurances allocated with the projected GSF, that’s a difference that occurs. As of 2027, this difference won’t be there anymore, that’s going to be easier.
In addition, and we have to look at how you’re modeling it, remember that our contracts that are on the ACR, the long-term contracts with the distributors, all of them have the GSF, some 92%, others 100%, and that, of course, has an impact when we do this calculation. That may be generating some description when you make your projections compared to what’s realized. Without that, everything that we release in the liquidation and sales is what’s in fact happening, but there may be these differences here from the projection to what we see. I don’t know if it’s clear, Raul? Yes, it is. Thank you. Excellent. I think finally, an additional question: In addition to the LRCAP of the hydro product, we have the storage.
Maybe I’d like to take Helio’s and his team’s perspective and the group’s mindset about the storage auction, if it makes sense, and if this recent discussions about the battery, if it’s on this range of BRL 1.2-BRL 1.7, if you think it’s adherent, or do you see any discrepancy considering the CapEx of batteries that. Anyway, to hear a little of your view. Thank you. Thank you, Raul. Please, Helio. Okay, good morning, Raul. Thank you. This is a topic about this auction, this capacity auction, what we see is that the system needs more and more power. That’s the first auction to be objective. It’s not the end of it. There will be others, other opportunities to sell our capacity and our potential pipeline here.
Batteries, it’s still too soon to fine-tune or what we may or may not consider. It’s different. There’s a lot of suppliers. We’ve been working alongside a lot of them for a year or two, trying to develop this, and we will evolve in the way we participate and, of course, as long as it makes sense for the group. It’s still too soon to discuss this on the battery. The questions and answer session is concluded. We would like to turn the floor to Mr. Ivan Monteiro to deliver the company’s closing remarks. I would like to thank you all for your participation. Any additional doubts, please contact Axia’s IR department. Thank you. Axia Energia’s conference is now closed. We thank everyone for their participation and wish you all a good day.