AIRO Group Holdings Inc Q1 2026 Earnings Call - Drone Backlog Holds Steady as Company Pivots to Pure-Play Drone Strategy

Janine, Conference Operator: Thank you for standing by. My name is Janine, and I will be your conference operator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to AIRO 1st quarter 2026 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker’s remarks, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad, and to withdraw your question, please press star 1 again. I would now like to turn the call over to Dan Johnson, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Dan Johnson, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations, AIRO Group Holdings, Inc.: Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. first quarter 2026 earnings call. We appreciate you joining us today and look forward to sharing an update on our progress and performance. With me on the call are Dr. Chirinjeev Kathuria, our Executive Chairman, Captain Joseph Burns, our Chief Executive Officer, and Dr. Mariya Pylypiv, our Chief Financial Officer. Replay information for today’s call can be found in our earnings press release issued earlier this morning. Today’s call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor Provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including, but not limited to, statements relating to AIRO’s 2026 outlook. Forward-looking statements represent our management’s beliefs and assumptions only as of the date made. Information on factors that could affect the company’s financial results is included, and it’s discussed non-GAAP financial measures.

These non-GAAP financial measures are in addition to and not a substitute for or superior to measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures and a discussion of the limitations of using non-GAAP measures versus their closest GAAP equivalent is available in our earnings release. Additionally, we plan to discuss drone segment backlog, a definition of which can be found in our earnings release. With that, I’ll turn it over to our Executive Chairman, Dr. Chirinjeev Kathuria.

Dr. Chirinjeev Kathuria, Executive Chairman, AIRO Group Holdings, Inc.: Thanks, Jack. Thank you all for joining us today. First, I will begin with a brief strategic overview before turning it over to Joe to walk through the business. 2025 was a foundational year for our company, and we believe the first quarter was another step in creating the key infrastructure that we can leverage throughout the remainder of this growth year. We continue to execute on our vision for a differentiated, integrated aerospace and defense platform positioned at the intersection of defense mobility, security, and training. I am proud of our team’s effort as we refine our strategic focus on opportunities that best align customer demand, operational timelines, and durable long-term value. This focused approach allows us to deploy capital more effectively, accelerate platform development, and scale the business in a disciplined manner as a newly public company.

Our call today will highlight a few key points that I want to emphasize before turning it over to Joe. First, as Joe will note further, we are repositioning the business to focus on the drone market. This is intentional and part of our strategy to diversify our product portfolio. In doing so, we recently introduced several new platforms, including the RQ-70, which complements the RQ-35 with extended range, higher payload capacity, upgraded sensors, and a competitive price point. We also recently unveiled the JC-250 and the JX-250 drone aircraft, designed to achieve over 1,000 miles of range and 16 hours of endurance in the ISR configuration. Together, these platforms broaden our addressable market and reinforce our focus on scalable, mission-ready drone solutions. Second, we are reaffirming our expectations to achieve Blue UAS certification in the second quarter of 2026.

Third, demand remains stable with the total drone backlog exceeding $150 million as of April 30th, and we’re reiterating our full year guidance of 2026 revenue growth guidance of 15%-25%. Consistent with that outlook, our first quarter top-line results were in line with internal expectations. We believe this first quarter performance sets the stage for stronger execution and growth across the remaining quarters of the year. With that, let me turn it over to Joe to discuss our segments and the market. Joe?

Captain Joseph Burns, Chief Executive Officer, AIRO Group Holdings, Inc.: Thank you, Chirinjeev. It’s great to be with you all here today. I am pleased to report a solid start to the year, highlighted by disciplined investment to build out our operational infrastructure. Top-line results were in line with our internal expectations, and the quarter reflects the revenue lumpiness inherent in our business model. Despite this variability, we remain highly confident in our ability to deliver within the full-year guidance ranges we previously provided. Mariya will walk you through the financial details later in this call. Our NATO business is typically driven by larger country-specific orders, which can create quarter-to-quarter variability in delivery timing. This does not impact our full-year performance, as these orders are generally fulfilled within the calendar year tied to funding. While supply chain dynamics can also influence timing, these effects have historically normalized within the year and are reflected in our planning assumptions.

As a result, our confidence in our full-year outlook remains strong. At the same time, we’re actively working to reduce quarterly variability by expanding our international and domestic revenue base. We have invested in business development, scaled manufacturing across Denmark and the U.S., and advanced key initiatives such as Blue UAS certification and new product introductions. Over time, we expect these actions to improve revenue balance, reduce volatility, and support continued backlog growth. Against this backdrop, I want to be very clear, we are executing on a strategic shift in how we position our business. We are sharpening our focus around the drone market, where we see the most significant and immediate opportunity, while positioning us for long-term growth. AIRO’s flight heritage, engineering expertise, and operational know-how position us extremely well to capitalize on this momentum.

As part of this effort, we are continuing to optimize our portfolio, including evaluating strategic alternatives for our training business. We see ongoing underlying demand across the training market, and CDI remains a valuable, albeit asset-heavy operation. That said, we are assessing its long-term role within our portfolio as we scale our other segments. We expect to discuss this in more detail later in the call. At the same time, we are continuing to strengthen our core drone offerings. Over the past several quarters, we have been developing new products and solutions that expand our addressable market, build on our core capabilities, and further strengthen our competitive advantage relative to other drone manufacturers. We are concentrating our efforts on a large cargo drone platform and an ISR variant. These programs leverage a common foundation, can be developed at a fraction of the cost, and face significantly lower regulatory hurdles.

We believe this approach enables more predictable, diversified revenue streams, and represents the most efficient deployment of our resources. This focus meaningfully differentiates AIRO from many public peers and positions us as a pure-play drone company with scalable demand over time. It also aligns tightly with our mission and positions us to move faster, scale more efficiently, and create durable shareholder value. All said, I am proud to share that we’ve unveiled two new drone variants this past week at AUVSI’s XPONENTIAL 2026 conference in Detroit, the JX-250 and the JC-250. In the ISR configuration, the JX-250, the drone is expected to achieve over 1,000 miles of range with up to 16 hours of endurance.

We are targeting first flights later this year and expect these aircraft to be operationally ready and commercialized in 2027, consistent with our prior expectations. These drones leverage our unique patented IP for slowed rotor technology and are complementary of our existing drone products. This represents another step in diversifying our product portfolio, and we believe we are still in the early innings of that effort. Turning to our broader product lineup, the RQ-35 Heidrun continues to serve as our core platform today. At the same time, we are very excited about several new platforms we plan to introduce over the coming months. One such platform is the RQ-70 Dainn, which is complementary to the RQ-35. The RQ-70 Dainn addresses a distinct operational profile with enhanced capabilities, most notably being a significantly extended flight range. It also offers higher payload capacity and upgraded sensor options.

We also expect the RQ-70 to be highly competitive from a pricing standpoint, coming in below many legacy competitor systems. As a result, we believe this platform is well-positioned to gain market share quickly following its introduction. Another key differentiator is our AI integration, which is directly enhancing the value we deliver to customers. As I have mentioned on previous calls, our goal at AIRO is to embed AI across every product we build, including both drones and avionics. We are already marketing and selling the AI-enabled full-stack RQ-35 Heidrun. Over the course of the year, we will roll out additional onboard AI applications leveraging our existing platform infrastructure. For example, our onboard AI enables real-time identification and classification of enemy assets and threats while strengthening navigation, situational awareness, mission execution, and autonomy. This drives faster, more informed decisions in the field. This is just the beginning.

Our roadmap extends across the entire fleet, with AI enhancing autonomy and mission performance, especially in GPS-denied environments. These capabilities further set AIRO apart with strong customer validation to date. We are building on that momentum with new AI initiatives and will continue to provide updates in the quarters ahead. We are also reaffirming our timeline to achieve Blue UAS certification in the second quarter of 2026. As I’ve alluded in prior calls, the Blue UAS certification is a key milestone for AIRO that is finally within reach. This incredible opportunity significantly expands our total addressable market as it provides us the chance to support the U.S. Department of Defense, plus aiding in rapidly scaling domestic adoption. Being Blue UAS certified is a key priority for the AIRO team.

Receiving the green light for Blue UAS certification supports our Made in America expansion strategy, and the AIRO team has experienced fully assembling RQ-35 Heidrun drones in our U.S. manufacturing facility in Phoenix, Arizona. Turning to avionics, Aspen, our core avionics business, performed in line with our top-line expectations for the quarter. Segment margins were impacted primarily by upgrade-related pricing programs, as well as the timing of operating expenses during the period. Neither of these factors change our long-term view of the strength and trajectory of that business. We continue to see consistent demand for Aspen products, particularly driven by performance, reliability, and technological differentiation of our sensor and GPS offerings. Additionally, we maintain a solid pipeline supported by multiple multi-year OEM agreements while continuing to invest in the development and innovation of the Aspen product portfolio. Innovation remains a core priority for Aspen.

We are actively advancing next-generation sensor and navigation solutions, which we displayed at the AUVSI XPONENTIAL Trade Show this past week. These generation systems are designed to expand functionality, improve performance, and further solidify Aspen’s leadership position in avionics sensing and GPS technology. Strategically, Aspen continues to play a critical role within our broader company profile, with meaningful synergies yet to be unlocked. We see compelling opportunities to integrate Aspen Avionics more deeply into our drone business. Over time, we also anticipate increased internalization of avionics systems on board our unmanned platforms. Synergies like this have the potential to streamline our operation, reduce supply chain complexity, and ultimately strengthen our long-term gross profit margin profile. These dynamics reinforce AIRO’s long-term competitive advantage. On to our training business. Performance for the period was largely as expected but also reflects the variability that can characterize this segment.

As I alluded to earlier, we continue to see underlying demand across the training market. However, many of these task orders that are available are not yet favorable to CDI, yet. CDI remains a valuable asset, and we continue to see the long-term potential in the segment. That said, the training business carries a more asset-heavy operating model, and as a result, we are assessing its strategic fit and longer-term role within our broader portfolio, particularly as we further develop and scale our operating agreements. Looking ahead, we are well-positioned to pursue several upcoming long-term close air support training opportunities. At the same time, we are exploring a range of strategic alternatives for this segment, including maintaining our current approach.

We believe that a greater emphasis on unmanned systems, combined with operational efficiencies and synergies across our other businesses, may offer stronger alignment with AIRO’s long-term vision of capital and allocation priorities, and we are evaluating the most effective path forward to support that strategy. Turning to capital deployment, our strong balance sheet with minimal debt gives us flexibility, and we are being deliberate in how we use it. We continue to evaluate inorganic opportunities with discipline, focusing on acquisitions that would be accretive within 12 months and that strategically enhance our drone and avionics platforms. We do, however, see a fundamental disconnect between our stock price and the underlying value of the business, and at current levels, we view share repurchases as an attractive and flexible way to return capital and drive long-term shareholder value long term.

At the same time, we remain committed to a balanced capital allocation framework and will continue to evaluate disciplined inorganic opportunities that support our core platforms. Overall, our approach is deploy capital in a way that maximizes long-term shareholder value with selective M&A playing a vital role. In closing, the initiatives, discipline, and efforts we have employed to date bolster our strategy of delivering mission-ready ISR systems that can be reduced, upgraded, and supported at scale. With that, I will turn it over to Maria, who will walk you through the financial results and provide more context on the puts and takes to our guidance ranges.

Dr. Mariya Pylypiv, Chief Financial Officer, AIRO Group Holdings, Inc.: Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. For the first quarter of 2026, revenue was $8.9 million, compared to $11.8 million in the first quarter of 2025. This decrease in revenue was as expected and modestly ahead of our internal expectations. These fluctuations reflect expected business top-line variability with timing-related customer shipments. Gross profit for the quarter was $2.4 million, representing a gross margin of 26.6%, compared to gross profit of $6.9 million and gross margin of 58.8% versus the same period last year. This decrease in gross margin year-over-year is not reflective of our true underlying demand. Rather, the margin compression is a result of revenue mix shift solely in Q1 towards drone upgrades.

Our internal estimates do not assume that upgrades will be the dominant driver of drone revenue in the remaining quarters this year. Instead, we assume pure drone deliveries will be the leading driver of revenue in Q2 and in the remaining quarters, favorably impacting margins going forward. Operating loss for the quarter was $17.2 million, versus $3.1 million in the first quarter of 2025. This year-over-year decline is a result of lower revenue, higher cost of sales, and higher operating expenses due to the post-IPO investments that we have previously communicated. We remain disciplined in our cost control efforts and our continued focused deployments of investments in key areas to build up the required infrastructure to support our demand.

Our first quarter net loss was $15.5 million, up from $2 million in the first quarter of 2025 due to the factors we just discussed. First quarter 2026 EBITDA was negative $14.3 million, compared to positive $2.7 million in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was negative $12.8 million, compared to just about break even in the first quarter 2025. This reflects the same product mix dynamics and continued investments in scaling the business. We do have ample levers in our arsenal that allow us to moderate or accelerate spending when needed, though we believe we are at the point in our growth journey where spending in an efficient but deliberate manner is the correct path forward as we build the necessary infrastructure to succeed in our next chapter as a public company.

Turning to cash flow and liquidity. As of March 31, 2026, we had $54.2 million in cash on the balance sheet with little debt. As of April 30, 2026, we had more than $150 million in drone backlog, showing stability from the $150 million we reported on our fourth quarter call just over a month ago. We expect the majority of this backlog to convert to revenue within the next 12 months. As a reminder, this excludes any U.S. backlog, which will provide considerable upside to our backlog estimate once included. We intentionally view our backlog as conservative, and alongside a robust sales pipeline, this positions us to generate incremental top-line contribution beyond the revenue embedded in our current backlog. We continue to define this metric as backlogs that we expect to reasonably convert over the next 12 months.

Given we are looking at 12 months from today, this provides visibility into more than just first quarter of 2027. While this backlog represents demand over the near term, our total pipeline continues to grow and is reflective of the long-term demand we have highlighted throughout this call. Given our visibility for the remainder of the year, we expect a record second half, and more specifically, a record fourth quarter, providing strong momentum heading into 2027. That said, for 2027, we expect revenue growth to outpace what we have projected for 2026, with further outperformance coming from U.S. demand. Turning to our outlook. Based on our current order pipeline and demand environment, we are reiterating our full year 2026 revenue growth of 15%-25% year-over-year.

Despite a year-over-year decrease in revenue this quarter due to reasons Joe outlined earlier, we are extremely confident that AIRO will achieve our guided revenue growth expectations and ultimately believe we have a very strong opportunity to outperform this guided range. Let me provide some additional color on our internal assumptions. First, we expect this first quarter to be the low water mark for the year with respect to both top and bottom lines. We expect a roughly 40-60 first half, second half split, with the third quarter sequentially lower versus the second quarter. Those expectations reflect our current visibility of large drone order deliveries as a part of our typical order of business. Second, we expect low single-digit gross margin compression compared to fiscal year 2025, largely driven by first quarter dynamics, which again included a higher percentage of drone upgrades versus our internal assumptions.

Third, the ramp-up in our investments needed to scale our operations, impacting both R&D and sales and marketing, will be partially offset by a decrease year-over-year in our G&A costs. As a reminder, we are deliberately accelerating our investments to build the foundation for our future as a high-growth company. Turning to profitability. As we continue to invest in buildings infrastructure to support our long-term growth, we’re initiating full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance in the negative mid to high teens dollar range. We expect the majority of the EBITDA loss to occur in the first half of the year, with the first quarter performance in line with or modestly better than the second quarter. We are still in the early stages of our growth phase, and we are deliberately accelerating investment to support long-term expansion.

At the same time, we remain disciplined in our cost management and retain significant flexibility to adjust our cost structure as needed. In closing, and to reiterate, we are actively making investments now to reduce our quarterly variability going forward, most notably on the top line. We’re specifically diversifying our revenue base, scaling manufacturing and accelerating new product introductions. As these products ramp up and contribute to a larger share of revenue, this will translate into reduced quarterly volatility with improved backlog growth. This ultimately reinforces our long-term confidence. With that, operator, we’re ready for questions.

Janine, Conference Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. I would like to remind everyone for 1 question, 1 follow-up. Our question comes from the line of Andres Sheppard from BTIG. Your line is open.

Andres Sheppard, Analyst, BTIG: Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I wanna ask first on the Bullet and Nord JVs. I mean, what’s the latest there? Have they officially closed? And if so, you know, what could we expect in the way of financial contribution, maybe not this year, but into 2027?

Captain Joseph Burns, Chief Executive Officer, AIRO Group Holdings, Inc.: Thank you, Andre. It’s Joe. Appreciate the question. You know, we’re still working through the regulatory issues for those two particular joint ventures, we’re making great progress outlining terms, we hope to close them in a very timely manner. The partnerships and JVs are a compelling route for us because they really can expand our access to multiple markets beyond just the U.S. or beyond the host country where they happen to be. We’re also evaluating other partnerships as well, continuing to look at those opportunities and platforms where there are really clear strategic alignment. All that said, you know, we’re still details to finalize, basically, as we said before, around the regulatory environment.

As soon as we get that finalized, we will absolutely be in a position to notify everyone that these things are solidly signed. Maria, any follow on for that?

Dr. Mariya Pylypiv, Chief Financial Officer, AIRO Group Holdings, Inc.: No, Joe, you answered it perfectly. Thank you.

Andres Sheppard, Analyst, BTIG: All right. That’s helpful. You know, I wanna talk about pipeline. You obviously, you know, indicated that it remains very robust. Is there any kind of quantitative color that you can provide there to characterize the pipeline?

Dr. Mariya Pylypiv, Chief Financial Officer, AIRO Group Holdings, Inc.: Andres, in terms of a backlog, currently, we are just discussing it from our best visibility in the next 12 months. We are actively building our pipeline, and it’s expanding monthly across multiple geographies and customers. What I will add is our current backlog is, as we mentioned on the call, it’s next 12 months and only focused on our out of U.S. Sky-Watch drone orders, and it does not include our, you know, the backlog we’re building in U.S. and for other products that we are unveiling. Joe, do you wanna add anything?

Captain Joseph Burns, Chief Executive Officer, AIRO Group Holdings, Inc.: Yeah. To further clarify that, as I’d mentioned a little earlier, we are very much on track for our Blue UAS certification in the U.S. Part of that involved investing heavily, as you saw in our OpEx numbers for the first quarter, heavily in our factory in Phoenix. Once the factory was up and the process hoops have been gone through, we feel very confident in getting our final Blue UAS certification. As soon as that happens, obviously that opens us up for UAS sales of the RQ-35 within the U.S. As those sales come in, we will adjust any earnings guidance or numbers as appropriate based on that. We wanna be conservative and are waiting for that particular trigger to happen.

Andres Sheppard, Analyst, BTIG: Got it. Got it. I guess on that point, as you await Blue UAS certification, you know, I know you guys were previously had your eyes set on Drone Dominance. As we look down the road to further phases of that program, I mean, are you considering future bids? If so, like, maybe what do some of your proposals look like? Are you partnering with somebody? Is there any color you can give there as to where you’re at?

Captain Joseph Burns, Chief Executive Officer, AIRO Group Holdings, Inc.: Sure. I think Drone Dominance has taken a very interesting path, right. The initial ones we saw were kind of, there was a lot of concern with the way the bid process went out. I think that the government came back and refined it to a much more solid process. They still have some issues, we believe, in the actual bidding itself. Yes, we are involved in this as a sub right now. We know we have the manufacturing capability to work these. We’re excited about the future of it. We’re doing a lot of internal design of airframes as well to help further enhance our ability to produce, you know, the large part of the Drone Dominance around what’s known as NDAA compliance.

In other words, ensuring that there are no Chinese components in the particular airframes. We’re very confident of our supply chain and our ability to provide a, an aircraft that’s largely U.S. manufactured, if not 100%.

Andres Sheppard, Analyst, BTIG: Got it. Joe, Maria,

Captain Joseph Burns, Chief Executive Officer, AIRO Group Holdings, Inc.: We do see more phases for Drone Dominance coming out as well in the near future.

Andres Sheppard, Analyst, BTIG: Got it. I appreciate the color there, Joe and Maria. I’ll hop back in the queue. Thanks so much.

Dr. Mariya Pylypiv, Chief Financial Officer, AIRO Group Holdings, Inc.: Thank you, Andre.

Janine, Conference Operator: Thank you. Again, should you have a question, please press star one. There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.