Atlas Energy Solutions Q1 2026 Earnings Call - Power Push and Logistics Rebound Signal a Strategic Inflection

Operator: Greetings, and welcome to the Atlas Energy Solutions first quarter 2026 earnings call. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Kyle Turlington, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Kyle Turlington, Vice President of Investor Relations, Atlas Energy Solutions: Hello, welcome to the Atlas Energy Solutions conference call and webcast for the first quarter of 2026. With us today are John Turner, President and CEO, Blake McCarthy, CFO, Tim Ondrak, President of Power, and Bud Brigham, Executive Chair. John, Blake, and Bud will be sharing their comments on the company’s operational and financial performance for the first quarter of 2026. After which, we will open the call for Q&A. Before we begin our prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that this call will include forward-looking statements as defined under the U.S. securities laws. Such statements are based on the current information and management’s expectations as of this statement and are not guarantees of future performance. Forward-looking statements involve certain risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict. As such, our actual outcomes and results could differ materially.

You can learn more about these risks in the annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC on February 24, 2026, and our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the first quarter, and current reports on Form 8-K and our other SEC filings. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligations to update these forward-looking statements. We will also make reference to certain non-GAAP financial measures such as Adjusted EBITDA, adjusted free cash flow, and other operating metrics and statistics. You will find the GAAP reconciliation comments and calculations in yesterday’s press release. With that said, I will turn the call over to John Turner.

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Thank you, Kyle. Before turning to the quarter, I wanna frame where Atlas stands today. On the sand and logistics side, the West Texas market is turning. Trucking rates have moved meaningfully off their lows. Logistic margins expanded from low single digits in January to mid-teens by March. Completion activity is building, and our mining operations are effectively sold out. On the power side, we have signed a global framework agreement with Caterpillar, securing 1.4 gigawatts of generation capacity, and we have just announced our first private grid power purchase agreement, a 120 megawatt deployment drawn from our initial 240 megawatt November order with Caterpillar. The strategic and commercial momentum heading into the balance of the year is the strongest it has been in some time. Turning to our first quarter results.

Atlas generated revenue of $265.5 million and EBITDA of $28.4 million, representing an EBITDA margin of 11%. Results were impacted by severe winter weather, elevated maintenance at our Kermit facility, and higher third-party logistics costs. Each of these items has been resolved, and we expect underlying margins to normalize beginning in the second quarter as the headwinds roll off and contracted volumes ramp. The clear signal of the demand recovery is in our own book of business. Customer volumes have moved our mining operations to a sold-out position for the second quarter at current production rates. We expect our plants to remain very busy for the balance of the year. As contracts roll off or if we elect to increase production, additional sand sales this year should come at higher pricing. The macro backdrop is supportive.

WTI is hovering near $100 a barrel. The 2027 strip has moved higher. We want to be clear that our outlook is anchored in customer commitments and completion activity we can see today, not at any single price level holding. While the West Texas sand and logistics market has been in a rut for the better part of 2 years, Atlas never stopped investing in our infrastructure. When the markets get tight, our investment in our plants, logistics network, and last-mile equipment reinforce our position as the most reliable supplier in the Permian. Now let me turn to power, where we are deploying capital with the same operating discipline that built our sand and logistics franchise and where we believe Atlas’ industrial capabilities translate directly.

We have intentionally structured our power strategy differently from some peers by pursuing full scope power purchase agreements in which Atlas owns and operates the complete solution, including balance of plant. This creates stickier, longer-term customer relationships, provides significant advantages at contract renewal, delivers superior reliability compared to the grid in many cases, allows for greater pricing flexibility once equipment costs are recovered, and creates high barriers for competitors due to the sunk costs and complexity of the facility. With grid constraints likely to persist for years, we believe this PPA model is the right long-term strategy for our shareholders. In November, Atlas placed an initial order with Caterpillar for 240 megawatts of power generation equipment, sized in response to specific customer projects.

As commercial momentum built early this year, we recognized the generational nature of this opportunity and entered into a separate global framework agreement with Caterpillar that secures an additional 1.4 gigawatts of power generation assets for delivery between 2027 and 2029. Together with the initial 240 megawatt order, these commitments support our objective of owning and operating more than 2 gigawatts by 2030. The announcement of a global framework agreement immediately elevated our commercial position. Our commercial team went from hunting deals to being hunted. With power generation equipment in short supply, our secure supply chain and our ability to offer surety of delivery have moved us from medium-sized industrial projects into serious contention for data center deployments.

On April 1, we announced our first private grid power purchase agreement, a 120 MW deployment that will be supplied from the initial 240 MW November order. The PPA carries an initial 5-year term with 2 additional 5-year extension options. Equipment delivery and construction are expected to begin later this year, with commissioning targeted for the first half of 2027. We expect this 120 MW deployment to generate approximately $50 million-$55 million of adjusted free cash flow on an annualized basis once fully deployed. To support the customer during construction and commissioning, we have already begun providing bridge power with mobile generators.

The combination of these bridge deployments and other recently executed microgrid deployments is expected to contribute approximately $35 million in the incremental Adjusted EBITDA over the remaining nine months of 2026, weighted toward the back half of the year as deployments ramp. Finally, in April, we successfully priced $450 million of 0.5% convertible senior notes due 2031. Concurrently, we entered into a capped call transaction with initial cap price of $22.32 per share, a 28% premium over last Thursday’s closing price of $17.38. We used a portion of the $386 million in net proceeds to pay down our outstanding balance under our ABL and outstanding advances under our master lease agreement and interim funding agreement.

We intend to use a portion of the remaining net proceeds to finance the initial 240 MW order. On a cash coupon basis, this transaction reduces cash interest expense of this quantum of capital from high single digits to 0.5%. The capped call meaningfully mitigates dilution up to the cap price, though we recognize residual equity optionality remains embedded in the structure. In summary, Atlas is well-positioned to grow our power business from expected deployments of roughly 550 MW next year to approximately 2 GW by the end of the decade. Combined with a recovering sand and logistics business, this trajectory would meaningfully transform our cash flow profile and create substantial long-term value for our shareholders.

With that, I will now turn the call over to our CFO, Blake McCarthy, who will review our financials in more detail and provide an update on our sand and logistics operations.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Thanks, John. At the time of our Q4 call, we were probably a bit more bullish about the prospects for oil than most industry prognosticators as we were forecasting global oil supply and demand coming into balance later this year. Regardless, we were aligned with most forecasts that called for slightly flat to down U.S. activity levels in 2026. As is par for the course in the oilfield, the backdrop has changed in a hurry. The turmoil in the Middle East and its impact on global oil trade flow have led to a rapid recalibration of oil prices. While none of us are sure how the current conflict will end, hopefully peacefully and quickly, we’re increasingly confident that the floor on oil prices over the medium term has risen significantly. The commodity markets are signaling an increase in the call on U.S. unconditional production.

While we’ve seen some signs of customers bringing activity schedules forward, the number of true completion crew additions in the Permian remains in the low single digits thus far. The potential recovery in West Texas activity in 2026 will likely look quite different from the recovery post-COVID. Customers aren’t sitting on a massive inventory of DUCs like they were coming out of the pandemic. Honestly, the service industry doesn’t have the ready-to-go idle equipment stock it did at that time. Instead, ramping production will require rig additions. Rigs that will need to be recruit. Completion spreads that will require crew ups and likely capital upgrades and ancillary services will need to be secured. Current pricing levels for all of these just don’t justify the investments service providers will need to make to meet incremental customer demand.

We are likely at the front end of a pricing recovery across the North American services complex. It’s still very early. The wild volatility we’ve seen in the commodity tape based on who’s tweeting what certainly doesn’t inspire extreme confidence. The realities of the impact the current geopolitical events are having on physical global inventories are becoming increasingly self-evident. The strip always eventually responds in kind. While we expect the larger operators to take a more cautious approach to activity additions in the near term, the universe of smaller operators will likely front run the big boys, as they historically have always moved to maximize their value capture during bull markets. The West Texas oil patch is a small community that thrives on industry chatter. We’re starting to hear the right things about activity increases in the second half of the year.

Thus far, we have seen a few operators take advantage of an elevated strip to accelerate what remains of their drilled and completed inventory, which directly led to us adding 1 million tons of incremental allocated volume through year-end. The limited response by most public E&Ps to date is not all that surprising, as they will likely evaluate the 2027 curve around mid-year prior to making capital allocation decisions. It’s not gonna take many crew additions for sand supply to get tight. Today, we estimate approximately 75 frac crews operating in the Permian. Due to the increase in sand intensity of completion processes over the past few years, we believe a 10% increase in frac activity would conservatively add north of 7 million tons of incremental sand demand.

Based on what we know about the market, it’s gonna be tough for the industry to produce enough to meet that demand, much less transport it to the well sites. While we haven’t seen meaningful improvement in pricing just yet, you can feel the stage is getting set. While we remain cautiously optimistic on higher mine gate pricing, we have already witnessed higher logistics pricing. Last year was the perfect storm for poor logistics pricing. Post Liberation Day, we saw both falling activity in the Permian along with weakening trucking rates nationally. Add in the impact of the Dune Express ramping mid-year, and trucking rates fell below the levels we saw during COVID in the second half of last year. Margins for third-party trucking rates turned negative in the fourth quarter.

That rubber band finally snapped in early January as a small ramp in activity exposed the fragility of the logistics network in the Permian. We saw a spike in trucking rates even before the Iran conflict. Late February, higher diesel prices led to another round of rate increases. In the over-the-road market nationwide, tender rejection rates in March were approximately 14%, defying typical seasonal dips. This signifies a tighter, more expensive freight market, with rates holding more than 800 basis points higher than 2025 levels. Rising rates nationally will pull rates higher in West Texas, as carriers must now keep up with the over-the-road market. Although there was always a lag in passing those higher rates through to our customers, we did witness mid-teen logistics margins in March compared to the low single-digit margins in January and February.

Higher trucking rates can also be a tailwind for higher mine gate pricing. Disadvantaged mines that are several mileage bands further away from activity sites are less competitive when hauling rates normalize. Higher rates also make the value proposition of the Dune Express even more obvious. Trucking rates in West Texas likely have more room to run, as rates in the Permian are still about 10% below national over-the-road rates. Historically, Permian trucking rates are usually at a premium to over-the-road market due to the wear and tear of driving on leased roads. Increased logistics pricing typically front runs increased mine gate pricing, so the improvements we are seeing now are very welcomed.

Moving to our financials, first quarter 2026 revenue of $265.5 million broke down to the following: proppant sales totaled $105.6 million, power equipment sales $3.3 million, logistics $139.1 million, and power rentals added $17.5 million. Total proppant sales volume was up sequentially to 5.7 million tons, which does not include approximately 130,000 tons of third-party sand purchases. Our logistics business set a quarterly delivered record of 5.5 million tons. Our average sales price for proppant for the first quarter was approximately $18.19 per ton, not including shortfall revenue of $1.9 million.

For the second quarter, we expect volumes to be up sequentially, with the average sales price to be slightly below $18 per ton. We are effectively sold out for Q2. First quarter cost of sales, excluding DD&A, were $214 million, consisting of $74.7 million in proppant plant operating costs, $2.1 million for power equipment costs, $127 million of service costs, $5.9 million in rental costs, and $4.3 million in royalties. For the first quarter, per ton proppant plant operating costs were approximately $13.86, including royalties, up sequentially from the fourth quarter. Higher expenses related to maintenance activities following winter storm at our flagship current facility were the primary driver of the elevated OpEx per ton. Q1 cash SG&A, excluding litigation and non-recurring items, was $23.3 million.

SG&A, excluding litigation expenses, is expected to average approximately $21 million-$22 million for the remainder of the year, per quarter. Growth CapEx for the quarter was $7 million, the majority of which was tied to our power segment and maintenance CapEx of $24.6 million. Q1 will represent the high watermark for capital spending in our sand and logistics business for 2026, as spending was primarily tied to essential equipment and preparatory work ahead of the Twinkle dredge deliveries. We are adjusting our 2026 CapEx guidance to approximately $350 million-$375 million due to bringing the 240 megawatt purchase on balance sheet with the recent convertible offering.

Maintenance CapEx of approximately $45 million is planned, with approximately $305 million-$330 million dedicated to growth, the vast majority of which is tied to the build-out of our private grid power business. Looking ahead to the second quarter, we are forecasting sequentially improved sales volume. We are effectively sold out of our productive capacity for the second quarter, as a step-up in production would likely require incremental personnel that current sand prices do not justify. Additionally, our visibility to second half activity levels and consequently volumes is improving rapidly. Due to the increased fixed cost absorption and improved production efficiency, OpEx per ton is forecasted to decline in the second quarter to approximately $12.75.

OpEx per ton is expected to continue improving over the remainder of the year as new operating processes have begun bearing fruit at our fixed mines. In the first quarter, our logistics business was impacted by a spike in third-party trucking rates and a late quarter increase in diesel prices. However, as mentioned, logistics margins improved progressively throughout the quarter from low single digits in January to mid-teens by March. We are currently forecasting mid-teens logistics margins for Q2. Additionally, as previously mentioned, Atlas’s power business is building contracting momentum rapidly. During the first quarter, the company executed multiple contracts spanning upstream and midstream microgrid projects and bridge power deployments in the commercial industrial market. We expect to generate approximately $35 million in incremental Adjusted EBITDA over the remaining 9 months of 2026 from bridge and microgrid deployments.

Looking at the current run rate for March EBITDA and with the incremental contributions coming from our power segment, we expect Q2 EBITDA to be approximately $50 million. I will now hand the call over to our Executive Chairman, Bud Brigham, for some closing remarks before we turn the call over for some Q&A.

Bud Brigham, Executive Chairman, Atlas Energy Solutions: Thank you, Blake. First, I’m going to start with some context for my comments. It was 35 years ago, as a young geophysicist, that I stepped out on my own with a small amount of capital and founded Brigham Exploration. Our plan was ambitious: to leverage cutting-edge technology to out-innovate the competition and create lasting value for shareholders. By hiring exceptional people, aligning them tightly with our investors, and empowering them in an entrepreneurial, innovative culture, that model delivered 3 IPOs and numerous successful exits. Along the way, our E&P companies drove several industry transforming advancements. In the 1990s, we pioneered the use of 3D seismic, delivering unprecedented exploration success rates, leading to our first IPO in 1997. In 2004, we were an early mover with horizontal fracking in the oil plays and built a position in the Bakken.

In 2007 and 2008, we began outperforming peers in the Bakken, in part by increasing frac stages. In 2009, we completed the first successful 2-mile long lateral with over 20 frac stages, which extended the Bakken play more than 70 miles to the west and accelerated development across all the major U.S. shale basins. In 2014 and 2015, Brigham Resources successful wells extended the Delaware Basin significantly to the south. In 2017, we founded Atlas and brought that same innovative spirit to oil field services with 4 more firsts. First, our team designed, permitted, and built the industry’s first and only long-distance sand conveyor system, widely believed impossible at the time, which reliably delivers premium proppant 42 miles into the heart of America’s most prolific producing region.

We were also the first autonomously truck proppant, the first with double and triple trailered configurations in U.S. oil fields, and the first and only company to dredge mine proppant in the Permian Basin. As John and Blake have shared, we’re only getting started. Our proven ability to innovate and execute large, complex infrastructure projects gives us a unique advantage in addressing today’s energy challenges. Of course, over that 35-year career, I’ve experienced many cycles and disruptions, but I’ve never seen demand inflections as powerful as the ones we’re witnessing today. As the largest premier proppant logistics provider in the world, we stand ready to respond. We are exceptionally well-positioned to support the delivery of incremental oil supply to meet global demand which has only intensified with the recent Middle East disruption.

As in the prior upcycles, we are positioned to deliver strong cash flow growth via proppant and logistics over the next several years. What makes this cycle strikingly different for Atlas is that we’re also optimally positioned to help meet America’s rapidly expanding power needs. Our recently announced power contract, combined with the global framework agreement we just signed with Caterpillar, gives us both surety of supply and the scale to be a leading player in the fast-growing private power market. With these milestones, and those still to come, we are clearly signaling our capabilities to both investors and customers facing acute grid constraints across Texas and the United States. The future for Atlas and power is here, and I believe we’re emerging as a leader in this critical market. Thank you for joining us today. I’ll now turn the call over to the operator for Q&A.

Operator: Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please while we pull for questions. The first question is from James Rollyson from Raymond James. Please go ahead.

James Rollyson, Analyst, Raymond James: Hey, good morning, everyone. John, maybe start with you on a question on power. If we go back just a quarter ago, you were kind of focused on the commercial and industrial space, obviously targeting a specific customer with the original 240 MW. As you’ve upped that ante by a pretty large amount with the global framework agreement with Caterpillar, and you guys mentioned that people are now calling you instead of the other way around. I’m curious if that end customer has shifted over to the data center guys or not, just given the magnitude of the power you guys are looking to add.

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Yeah. Thanks, James. I’ll start, then Tim, you can add to this. Yeah, James, you’re right. I mean, the GFA or the global framework agreement has had a profound impact, you know, on Atlas’ commercial opportunity set. You know, before the agreement, our pipeline was weighted towards, you know, smaller industrial deployments. The combination of, you know, secured supply and access to the premium equipment from Caterpillar has changed the customer conversation. It’s really been overnight. Both the size of the deployments we’re being invited into and the quality of the counterparties has significantly changed as well. Then, you know, like I mentioned on my call, I mean, reverse inquiries are now active. You know, we’re having a lot of reverse customer inquiries now on a daily basis.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: You know, that’s a meaningful part of why we’re so optimistic about our path forward with power. Tim, do you wanna add anything to that?

Bud Brigham, Executive Chairman, Atlas Energy Solutions1: Yeah. I think, you know, as John mentioned, you know, we’re getting a lot of inbounds. You know, the goal of signing the global framework agreement was to secure power for the opportunity sets that we had in front of us, which were, you know, heavily weighted towards, you know, as John mentioned, smaller industrial deployments. When I say small, you know, they’re 50 to a couple hundred megawatts. Since signing the global framework agreement, we’ve started to get some inquiries from some of the bigger data center projects. I think our, you know, our queue going into that, as far as an opportunity set was roughly 4 megawatts or 4 gigawatts.

I would say since signing that agreement, that queue has grown to, you know, somewhere between probably 8 and 10 gigawatts. These are, you know, quality projects where we’ve gone through, you know, a stage of vetting to see if they’re real and, you know, have determined that as the project moves forward, we would like to participate.

James Rollyson, Analyst, Raymond James: Wow. Sounds like you could place a lot of equipment with a smaller number of customers.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Right

As a follow-up, kind of switching gears over to the sand logistics business. Blake, you talked about incremental opportunities and kind of how, you know, we’ve heard this earnings season some of that early indication of recovery of activity in the U.S. land, and obviously the Permian will be part of that. I’m curious, as you think about incremental sand volumes where you’re sold out today, what kind of price level do you need for sand to actually consider adding to your capacity, mining capacity to actually provide that sand?

Yeah, that’s a good question, Jim. I think that that question basically assumes that at any one point a player has control over the price of sand, which as you know, I mean, it is such a hyper volatile commodity, where, you know, as we talked about in the past, right? Supply gets a little bit over demand just on a, you know, a macro basis, and it quickly falls to that, you know, marginal price of production for the industry. Which is where it’s been at for, you know, over 18 months now. The thing about sand is though, you know, it is, you know, the critical raw material to the completion process. It gets a little bit undersupplied, and it doesn’t just move $3, $4 bucks. It moves up in a hurry.

you know, I think that, you know, as the largest player, you know, right now, you know, say, like there hasn’t been a lot of movement in price. You know, we’ve seen some stuff around the margins. I think one encouraging thing we’ve seen is some of the more astute operators have tried to move forward their like move forward their RFP processes, where, you know, typically, we’re not talking about this stuff until November. Some of the smarter guys are doing exactly what I would do, which is like, "Hey. you know, the writing’s on the wall on this. Things are gonna tighten up.

If I could, you know, lock in now, that’d sure be good for my, well costs, you know, come 2027 and going forward. You know, I think that from where we stand is like, hey, we’re, you know, more than happy to, you know, help you secure your volumes, but, you know, we’re not going to, you know, lock in these prices for the long term. You know, that’s, you know, a bit of give and take. In terms of adding production, you know, for us, like, you know, if you look at where we’re at now versus what our, you know, nameplate is, like there’s still some upside. You know, that really would, you know, require, you know, adding, you know, shifts and, probably some minimal capital investment.

It’s just something that, you know, we’re not really gonna be doing until you get to north of that, you know, $23-$25 range on sand pricing, ’cause that’s really where, you know, the industry starts earning its cost to capital. You know, in a perfect world, we keep sand in those type of, you know, normalized prices. That’s really a sweet spot for Atlas, it doesn’t encourage incremental supply. You know, sand always moves. You know, when it goes down, it goes down in a hurry. When it goes up, it usually goes way higher than we ever expect. You know, it’s something that we’re watching very closely.

Bud Brigham, Executive Chairman, Atlas Energy Solutions1: I think one thing to note is, you know, back in 2021, sand was around $20 per ton. When we got to March of 2022, it was north of 30, and it’s been at $40 a ton. Like Blake said, I mean, sand prices swing wild. I mean, they obviously very volatile. When that supply-demand balance, you know, when we’re undersupplied, when that shifts, it shifts quickly.

James Rollyson, Analyst, Raymond James: Yep. I recall. Appreciate all the context, guys.

Bud Brigham, Executive Chairman, Atlas Energy Solutions1: Thanks, Jim.

Operator: The next question is from Derek Podhaizer from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Derek Podhaizer, Analyst, Piper Sandler: Hey, good morning, guys. Encouraging to hear all the comments around the logistics margins going from the low single digits to it’s about the mid-teens here and guiding that for the next quarter. On the trucking rates specifically, how should we think about what a 10% uplift in the Permian activity would do to those trucking rates, which appear to be already tightening? Blake, I think you said they’re still 10% below the national average. Maybe just some additional color around where you think trucking rates can go if we do get an uptick in activity here.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Yeah. That’s a great question, Derek. I Apologies in that, you know, trying to pin down where trucking rates are right now is like, you know, trying to hold onto a greased pig. There’s a lot of moving variables. You know, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, you know, the typical relationship with over the road is like over the road national freight right now versus Permian rates is inverted. Typically you need rates at like a 10%-20% premium to over the road to incentivize drivers and truck owners to beat up their assets in the oil field. Currently, Permian rates are still at a discount. The other thing that we’re really watching is diesel.

You know, that’s a direct hit in the wallet for trucking owner-operators. While most of our customers have been quick to work with us on passing those costs through, we have heard quite a few anecdotes of certain operators refusing to accept those passthroughs or only accepting a percentage of that. You know, in my opinion, that’s really short-sighted, as trucking margins were already razor thin across the industry, if not in the red for the smaller trucking companies. Forcing them to eat the rapid diesel inflation just invites a trucking crunch. We’re starting to see that, as industry watchers can tell you that, several trucking companies are choosing to park assets versus operating at a loss. You know, that’s continued tightening in the trucking market. That’s something we’re certainly watching.

As the higher trucking rates go, the more important the location of your mines and the breadth of your logistics network becomes. So, you know, the combination of our mobile mines in the Midland Basin and of course, you know, the logistical advantages provided by the Dune Express for our fixed mines that service the Delaware puts us in a really strong position versus many of our competitors’ mines. Actually, you know, probably adds to our ability to push mine gate pricing.

In terms of what it means in terms of like, you know, hey, you see a 10% move in trucking rates and what that does to our margin profile, you know, that advantage, that margin advantage provided by the Dune Express, you know, that just throws gas on that fire, right? If you’re thinking those trucking rates are being forced by cost inflation to the owner-operators, yes, we get hit on that on the, you know, the final haul from like end of line or from the state line facility to the well site. It’s such a smaller percentage of the overall logistical haul because of how much of that chunk of that haul is covered by the Dune Express. It becomes, you know, it really starts to push our incrementals.

You know, we were encouraged to see the improvement from the, you know, low single digits into the mid-teens. You know, we’re watching that now and, you know, expecting it to kind of be, you know, that mid-teens margins through this quarter. As we move into the back half of the year, it’s certainly something we’re gonna start pushing.

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Yeah. I think the diesel prices, I mean, that’s obviously a big tailwind on the Dune Express because that’s electric moving that sand, you know, 42 miles via an electric conveyor. That’s also big. I also think there’s also a shortage of trailers, lead time on those trailers. You know, now a lot of your trailer manufacturing comes from Mexico. There’s a tariff on it. I think you’re gonna start seeing shortages in a lot of places here as we move into the rest of the year.

Derek Podhaizer, Analyst, Piper Sandler: Got it. That’s all really helpful color. Sorry. We talked about the demand side of proppant. Maybe thinking about the supply side. I think in previous calls, we talked about the tier 2, tier 3 sand mines out there. I think we’ve had something around like 20% of supply coming out of the market. If there’s gonna be this call on demand around, I think you said 7 million tons for this year if we start adding completion crews back, how do you think about those mines being incentivized to come back to the market? When these mines shutter, they never truly shutter or come out of the market, and they can come back to life pretty quickly.

Have you surveyed and kind of looked around the supply stack to see which mines have the ability to come back, maybe some that have been truly taken out of the market? Just maybe some comments and color around the supply stack as you see it today and what it could And how it could respond if there is a big call on demand.

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Yeah. You know, I can start with that. I mean, we can only go by experience of what we’ve seen in the past. You know, back when prices really started, when we saw this change flip in supply, the supply and demand balance, you know, I think a number of mines that had been open had closed, were slow to open their doors and commit a lot of capital until they had longer term contracts. I think that’s really gonna impact that. I also think your proximity mines are gonna be in a lot more advantaged position here because of where diesel rates are and where the trucking rates are. You wanna add anything?

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Yeah. That interplay between the, you know, just the logistics haul, right? Like it’s, it’s not just their cost to produce at the mine, but it’s also how, you know, mines that are, you know, located at the kind of the fringes of the plays. You know, if you got a mine that’s to the extreme south or something like that, like with what you’re seeing in terms of diesel inflation, those hauls become really cost prohibitive. You really need to see mine gate pricing move in a big way to incentivize those mines to gear up.

Like John said, like it’d be a little foolhardy to do it like without, you know, hey, I can get a spot sale here at this X price, which would, you know, if I extrapolate that out 2 years, it incentivizes that capital investment. But if you don’t have a contract, that’s a heck of a bet.

Bud Brigham, Executive Chairman, Atlas Energy Solutions: Well, related to all that, we should also mention personnel.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Yeah.

Bud Brigham, Executive Chairman, Atlas Energy Solutions: I mean, it’s a real challenge to find, you know, labor that can operate, you know, these plants. So that’s gonna be a challenge as well.

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Really the data center boom that’s going on.

Bud Brigham, Executive Chairman, Atlas Energy Solutions: Yeah

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: what I would call Central Texas, maybe Central West Texas a little bit, around Abilene and places like that, is really pulling a lot, a lot of workers out of the oil field right now. Because there’s all this, you know, construction.

Bud Brigham, Executive Chairman, Atlas Energy Solutions: Trades

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: trades and things like that

Bud Brigham, Executive Chairman, Atlas Energy Solutions1: You know, typically where we go to pull our, you know, our manpower from, it’s making it difficult to hire. There’s a lot of other factors going on here than there were back when these mines opened in 2022, right? I mean, there’s a lot more going on.

Scott Gruber, Analyst, Citigroup: Demographic shift too.

Bud Brigham, Executive Chairman, Atlas Energy Solutions1: Yeah.

Derek Podhaizer, Analyst, Piper Sandler: Yeah. No, a lot has changed. Extremely helpful, guys. Really appreciate it. I’ll turn it back.

Bud Brigham, Executive Chairman, Atlas Energy Solutions1: Thanks, Derek Podhaizer.

Operator: The next question is from Sean Mitchell from Daniel Energy Partners. Please go ahead.

Bud Brigham, Executive Chairman, Atlas Energy Solutions0: Good morning, guys. Thanks for all the color. Maybe turning back to power, can you guys talk about the specific equipment that Cat is providing to you in this global framework agreement and why these units are probably well suited for the microgrid versus other options?

Bud Brigham, Executive Chairman, Atlas Energy Solutions1: Yeah. Morning, Sean, this is Tim. I’ll take that question. The assets we’re purchasing from Cat are really 2 engine platforms. One is a, you know, medium speed engine, one’s a high speed engine. Those are both, you know, designed to operate in continuous duty. The medium speed is it’s a 4 megawatt unit. The high speed engine is a 2.5 megawatt engine. You know, we feel like these are assets that, you know, we wanna own and operate for, you know, for decades. You know, they each have different characteristics that help support our customer needs. Really, you know, kind of project specific on what units we would put on specific projects.

Our confidence is not only in the history of those engines, which, you know, I think one of them has not had a design change in 20 years, which tells us it’s, you know, it’s out doing the work and will continue to. The other has had some design changes, and there are some different models available to us under that agreement. We can, we can use those models to kind of match the customer demand, you know, just depending on what their load does on a operating basis. I think what excites us about both of those is just the fact that they’re with, you know, probably the most respected OEM in that space. You know, and really in several spaces in Caterpillar.

Just the backing that we get from that, you know, helps us to predict our maintenance costs, helps us to address issues quickly should they pop up, and ultimately lends itself to us having a, you know, tier 1 portfolio of assets that we’re out operating for customers.

Bud Brigham, Executive Chairman, Atlas Energy Solutions0: That’s helpful. Thank you.

Operator: The next question is from Scott Gruber from Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Scott Gruber, Analyst, Citigroup: Yeah, good morning. Maybe turning to the OpEx side, you know, on your sand production business. I want to double-check the OpEx per ton guide embedded in the 2Q EBITDA guidance. I think I heard $12.45 per ton, so I wanted to check that. You know, obviously improvement will come with the new dredges. You know, where do you think OpEx per ton lands now on a normalized basis, and when do you think you can get there?

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: The correction on that, Scott, that the OpEx per ton guide for Q2 embedded in the Q2 guide is $12.75.

Scott Gruber, Analyst, Citigroup: Okay. Thank you.

Bud Brigham, Executive Chairman, Atlas Energy Solutions1: Yep. Thanks for clarifying. I have a tendency to trip over my own tongue. Yeah, I think that, you know, obviously it’s a fixed cost absorption business and so, you know, now that we’re starting to get closer to sold out, that, you know, sold out for Q2 at the current productive capacity, that’s obviously a tailwind. You know, we’re still in the process of commissioning the new dredges at the flagship Kermit Mine. Once we get those on, that’s gonna lower our variable cost. That’ll start to flow through in terms of operating leverage. As, you know, as we push forward, you know, through the year, that’ll continue to trend down.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: You know, we’ll probably get an 11 handle on it, in the, in, you know, towards the kind of the, I’d say conservatively the kind of the September-October timeframe. Obviously that continues to be based around, you know, there’s the volumetric aspect of that. You know, I think longer term, you know, we’re, you know, very much. You know, our mines have been operating kind of at an elevated OpEx for a while now. We still got, you know, our goals to get back to, you know, kind of the high 10s, on a full run rate basis once we get them optimized.

Bud Brigham, Executive Chairman, Atlas Energy Solutions: Across the company.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Across the company. We’ve got, you know, I think there’s a lot of stuff going on under the hood that we’re very excited about in terms of process improvements at the plants, more efficient maintenance and things like that. We’re really making some real headway there. I think it’d be continue to be a positive trend as we work through the rest of the year.

Scott Gruber, Analyst, Citigroup: Then turning back to logistics, you know, obviously, encouraging trends on the trucking side, and you mentioned. Is there a positive influence on Dune Express pricing? I’m wondering kind of the timing, you know, around that pull. You know, are your Dune Express volumes, is the pricing on those volumes locked in for the year? Or could those, you know, reset at some point this year?

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: You know, a lot of those contracts have either biannual or quarterly pricing visits. You know, right now, like I said, it’s still early, you haven’t seen much movement in terms of actual sand pricing. You have seen movement in trucking rates.

With the Dune Express volumes, we really look at those kind of as a, you know, total cost of delivered tons. Like, you know, we add those together through the lens that we want the operator to look at, because that’s certainly gonna be to our advantage as we move through this cycle. It’s probably more, you know, as later in the year, might be a slight tailwind. For those bigger contracts, it’s gonna be a bigger tailwind as we move into 2027.

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Our trucking pricing resets a lot more.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Yeah

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: more frequently than sand pricing does.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Yeah.

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Yeah. It’s quarterly on the sand pricing. I mean, on the trucking prices, sorry.

Bud Brigham, Executive Chairman, Atlas Energy Solutions: Yeah. Yeah, gotcha. With those kind of integrated deliveries, the upside really comes next year on the margin front.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: That’ll probably be the biggest lever.

Scott Gruber, Analyst, Citigroup: Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Okay. Appreciate the color. Thank you.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Thanks.

Operator: The next question is from Keith Mackey from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Keith Mackey, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Hey, thanks, good morning. Maybe just sticking on the sand price theme. Can you just comment on your contract durations and contract amounts? You know, roughly how much of your sand could reprice between now and the end of the year based on the contract or agreement schedule that you currently have in place?

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Yeah. Yeah, we tend to try to contract as much of our sand as possible through the RFP process. I think that there’s probably, you know, in terms of stuff that’s, you know, fully, you know, free flow to spot, if you look to the back half of the year, we could probably reprice, you know, up to, you know, 20-25% of our contract portfolio. You know, on top of that, you know, as people look to, you know, lock in tons for 2027, that probably opens the conversation to, "Hey, let’s, you know, move the entire contract to a, you know, move levels there." So there is some upside to pricing as we move through the rest of the year, but it’s really to reprice the entire contract portfolio.

It’s gonna be kind of, as you move into that, you know, full 2027 RFP season.

Keith Mackey, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Right. Got it. Okay. Okay. Makes sense. Then, can you just run us through a little bit more on the dredge implementation and the timelines there for the new, the new Twinkle dredges that you’ve got coming in? Just how does that align with the OpEx per ton guidance that you’ve been running us through, Blake?

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: You know, on the timing, you know, the first Twinkle dredge is on location. It’s built. They’re digging the pond right now. You know, we would expect that dredge to be floated probably by the end of the quarter. When I say quarter, end of the second quarter. The second dredge arrives here, I believe, starts arriving here probably in June sometime. Then I think, you know, they’ve got to construct the dredge on-site. I would say that, you know, we probably won’t see a full impact from the dredge probably until end of the year, right? Fourth quarter, maybe.

I mean, you know, because I don’t think we’ve While they’ll both be floated probably in the third quarter, I think it’s gonna be give some time for us to commission them and get them running where they need to be. I mean, the guidance that we’ve given, I don’t think it incorporate this.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: There’s no impact from that in Q2.

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Yeah.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: You know, the way to think of that from a, you know, model mechanic standpoint is that, you know, right now that variable cost of sand is you’re, you know, closer to, you know, $5.50-$5.75. When those dredges get running, that number has a poor handle on it. So that, really starts to flow through in terms of, like I said, the variable cost operating leverage.

Keith Mackey, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Got it. Appreciate the color.

Operator: The next question is from Don Crist from Johnson Rice. Please go ahead.

Don Crist, Analyst, Johnson Rice: Morning, guys. Thanks for letting me in here. On the Global Framework Agreement, I just wanted to ask about the delivery schedule. Is it pretty constant over the 27-29 period, or is it more back-end weighted? Just kinda any color around the delivery schedule on that GFA.

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Don. The delivery schedule on 2027 is, you know, kinda last 3 quarters of the year. You know, we’ve still got 120 megawatts from our first sort of, kind of pre-framework agreement that we expect to be able to slot in there. In 2028, it’s fairly constant and accelerates as far as overall size of megawatts in our delivery slot.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: I think it’s, you know, it’s more weighted to 27 and 28, with a lesser commitment in 29. As, you know, as, you know, Tim and John, you know, talked so enthusiastically about, like, as, you know, as we, as we move forward and actually start to contract some of these assets, you know, We have, you know, the ability to upsize that commitment at the later stages of the contract, and it’s something that we’re gonna be exploring.

Don Crist, Analyst, Johnson Rice: Okay. Just from a kinda contract timing, I know it’s very fluid, and these things have to go through boards and all kind of things, but just is your goal to have that contracted, that incremental capacity contracted, say, nine months before it is delivered, or is that too aggressive?

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Yeah.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Go ahead.

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: I mean, I think, you know, what we found out with and that’s obviously with what others have found out, is that talking about timing on these contracts, you know, is very difficult. You know, our goal is to get it contracted as soon as we can. You know, I don’t wanna put out any timelines out there.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: They take time.

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: They take time.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Yeah, they do.

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: These are very, you know, complicated contracts, and it takes a while for negotiation. You know, because we’re talking about 15-20-year power agreements with counterparties. We don’t wanna put a timeline on that with our goal. I mean, we just wanna make sure that it’s contracted when we start deploying it.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Yeah. The one thing I will say is that, you know, compute power is, you know, a real bottleneck. There is a lot of urgency to move from this customer base. You know, obviously there’s urgency on our end. It’s like, "Hey, we wanna get these contracts." There’s a lot of urgency from them that’s like, "Hey, I need this power, and I need this timeline." You know, there is a, you know, considerable construction runway to where you actually go from, "Hey, we signed the contract," to where there’s actually, you know, providing power or, we’re providing power to them. It is at to both parties’ advantage for these negotiations to move as quickly as possible.

As John said, they’re really complicated negotiations through big contracts, so each one is like a, you know, an M&A transaction. You know, when you’re signing contracts of this term, you know, it’s infrastructure. You wanna make sure you get it right ’cause you gotta live with those contracts for a very long time.

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Yeah. I think the, you know, the other element that has, you know, kind of changed the dynamics around those discussions is, you know, just the number of inbounds we’ve gotten in the counterparties. You know, when we look to build a contracted business that’s, you know, 15, 20-year commitments, you know, I think we, I think we did a great job on asset selection in the global framework agreement. I think we’ve got a great team. You know, the other part that makes a good deal is a good counterparty that we wanna work with for that period of time.

you know, given what’s in our pipeline and how quickly it’s expanded, you know, we’re in a very fortunate position where, you know, we’ve got a little more say in who our counterparties are gonna be for those contracts. you know, obviously something we’re all looking forward to and we’ll share details as they come.

Don Crist, Analyst, Johnson Rice: I appreciate the color. When a 500 megawatt contract can be well over $2 billion, it’s understandable that it takes a while to get across the finish line. Rootin’ for you. Thanks for the color. Thanks.

Blake McCarthy, Chief Financial Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Thank you.

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Thanks, Don Crist.

Operator: There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to John Turner for closing comments.

John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer, Atlas Energy Solutions: Thank you, operator. You know, I wanna thank everyone for all the questions today. Before we close, I wanna step back from the quarter and tell you why I believe Atlas looks fundamentally different 2 years from now than it did or than it does today. Start with, you know, what we announced last month, the 120 MW power deal, the power purchase agreement that we signed on April first, which is expected to generate $50 million-$55 million of annual adjusted free cash flow once it’s fully deployed. You know, returns on individual contracts will vary. They will, you know, depend on the customer and the market, term length, contract structure, et cetera. You know, we would not expect every megawatt across our portfolio, our broader portfolio to deploy at these same economics.

This contract is a meaningful proof point of what, you know, the model can produce, and it represents a small fraction of the 2 GW, 2 GW we expect to own and operate by 2030. You know, we’re not a company adding power at the margin. We’re building a long-duration contracted cash flow stream on top of a sand and logistics franchise that is self-inflecting at this time as well. We are doing it with secured supply from Caterpillar, you know, at a moment when Caterpillar is a great counterparty, and it’s at a moment when generation equipment is one of the scarcest assets in the U.S. economy. You know, sand and logistics business is the engine that funds this transformation. That engine is accelerating.

We’re effectively sold out, as we’ve talked about, for the second quarter. We talked about our logistics margins are now running in the mid-teens with that strength expected to carry through the second quarter, and we are guiding to approximately $50 million of EBITDA in the second quarter, which is a roughly 76% sequential increase from the first quarter. You know, the conditions Blake described, limited completion crew availability, tight equipment, and rising trucking market rates, you know, historically reward the most reliable supplier in the basin, and that is Atlas. And we’ve seen that in the past. You know, we’ve also recently positioned our balance sheet to fund this growth without compromising returns.

We talked about that through the convertible pricing. As Bud noted in, you know, his 35 years in the industry, he’s never seen two demand inflections of this magnitude converge at the same time, with surging global oil demand on one side and the acute U.S. power constraints on the other. Atlas is, you know, positioned itself to serve both of those. With, you know, we have the assets, the contracts, the supply chain, and the capital to deliver, and we intend to. Thank you for your time and your questions, your continued support. We look forward to updating you guys on our progress next quarter.

Operator: This concludes today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.