The U.S. dollar experienced a slight decrease on Friday, positioning itself for the most notable weekly decline since June 2025, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions that have adversely affected U.S. assets. As of 04:00 ET (09:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a weighted basket of six major currencies, edged down marginally to 98.170. This movement marks approximately a 1% loss for the week and represents the dollar's most substantial weakening since mid-2025.
Investor sentiment toward the dollar has been notably bearish, largely reflecting concerns about the evolving global political dynamics and perceived deteriorations in diplomatic relations between the United States and its European allies. Despite the administration's recent agreement on access to Greenland, which mitigated threats of trade sanctions and military action, the deal has left European officials displeased. This tension was evident at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reportedly exited a prominent dinner following a speech by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, whose remarks included pointed criticisms of Europe.
According to analysts from ING, three main themes dominate current foreign exchange market behavior: an optimistic global economic outlook for 2026 (risk-on sentiment), expectations of dollar value erosion, and concerns about fragile fiscal positions. The analysts highlighted that "The dollar looks on the wrong side of the ledger for all three themes," indicating that the currency is currently disadvantaged across these critical factors. ING further noted that the trajectory depends significantly on whether these themes persist. While improved U.S. consumption and economic activity data might delay Federal Reserve rate cuts and temporarily bolster the dollar relative to other G10 currencies with low yields, the firm anticipates the dollar's decline becoming more pronounced from the second quarter onward.
In European currency markets, the British pound (GBP/USD) inched upward by 0.1% to 1.3497, approaching a two-week peak. This gain follows stronger-than-expected retail sales data released for December, which revealed a 0.4% increase in sales volume from November — the first rise since September — surpassing forecasts that anticipated a 0.1% decline. Complementing this economic indicator, consumer confidence, as measured by market research company GfK, reached its highest point since August 2024, driven by improved household sentiment regarding personal financial outlooks.
The euro (EUR/USD) retreated marginally by 0.1% to 1.1742, falling back from a three-week high hit earlier in the week despite solid activity levels for the Eurozone. The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for January stood at 51.5, signifying modest expansion and mirroring December's results. ING analysts remarked that resistance levels around 1.1770 to 1.1780 represent key barriers during intraday trading, and any unexpected breach above 1.1810 could prompt a reassessment of their neutral stance on the euro-dollar exchange rate for the current quarter.
Across Asia, the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen (USD/JPY) saw relatively stable trading around 158.37. This occurred after the Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.75%, aligning with market expectations. The central bank also modestly upgraded its inflation and growth forecasts for fiscal years 2025 and 2026, attributing anticipated improvements partly to increased government spending. Despite this positive outlook, the yen failed to gain meaningful support, as investors remain concerned about Japan’s considerable fiscal pressures. Furthermore, Japanese government bonds underwent notable selloffs amid speculation about additional fiscal strain following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s announcement of a snap election scheduled for early February. Recent consumer price index statistics showed that headline inflation in Japan fell to its lowest point since early 2022, even though core inflation remains above the Bank of Japan’s targeted annual rate of 2%.
The Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) declined slightly by 0.1%, settling near 6.9644. This movement followed the People’s Bank of China setting its daily yuan midpoint below the 7 yuan threshold for the first time since 2023, signaling institutional backing for the currency's strength. Additionally, the Australian dollar (AUD/USD) experienced a minor increase to 0.6841, while the New Zealand dollar (USD/NZD) dropped 0.4% to 0.5900, reflecting modest fluctuations within the broader currency market landscape.