Currencies December 31, 1969

South Korea's Won Forecasted to Strengthen as Equity Market Remains Undervalued, President Lee States

President Lee anticipates the Korean won will firm to approximately 1,400 against the dollar in the coming months, while highlighting ongoing undervaluation in the domestic stock market despite a strong recent rally.

By Avery Klein
South Korea's Won Forecasted to Strengthen as Equity Market Remains Undervalued, President Lee States

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung indicated expectations for the won to strengthen to about 1,400 per US dollar within the next couple of months. Despite various domestic policy efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market amid historic lows for the won, Lee acknowledged that these measures alone cannot fully counter depreciation influenced by broader regional currency weaknesses, particularly in the Japanese yen. Meanwhile, the South Korean stock market, which achieved notable gains last year and continues to advance due to optimism around emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors, remains undervalued in international comparisons due to lingering structural concerns referenced as the "Korea Discount."

Key Points

  • South Korean authorities foresee the won strengthening to about 1,400 per US dollar within one to two months.
  • Despite policy interventions, domestic measures alone cannot fully stabilize the currency due to influences from regional currency movements, notably the Japanese yen.
  • The South Korean stock market remains undervalued compared to global peers due to structural issues known as the 'Korea Discount', although recent strides have been made in addressing related concerns.
  • The KOSPI index has experienced significant gains, driven largely by optimism in semiconductor and automobile sectors tied to artificial intelligence advancements.

South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung shared insights on Wednesday regarding the outlook for the domestic currency and equity markets, emphasizing both anticipated currency appreciation and perceived undervaluation in the stock market.

During a press briefing, Lee conveyed that officials responsible for currency policy expect the Korean won to strengthen to a level around 1,400 won per US dollar within the next one to two months. Following his remarks, the won appreciated by as much as 0.5%, reaching approximately 1,468.8 against the dollar, after earlier hitting its weakest point since December 24 at 1,481.4.

Market participants noted that the dollar-won exchange rate dropped sharply as traders adjusted their long dollar positions in response to the president’s comments. This adjustment underlines the sensitivity of the won to policy signals and market sentiment.

Since late last year, South Korean authorities have implemented various measures designed to support the currency, which had declined to levels not seen in about 16 years. These efforts reflect concerns that the won’s depreciation was not fully justified by economic fundamentals.

However, Lee cautioned that these domestic initiatives would be insufficient as standalone solutions to reverse the won’s recent weakening, partly because the won’s performance is linked to developments in the Japanese yen. He noted that comparatively, the won has held up better against the yen, despite regional currency challenges.

The president affirmed his commitment to continuing efforts aimed at discovering sustainable policies to stabilize exchange rates over the longer term.

Turning to the equity market, Lee addressed the persistent issue of the "Korea Discount," a phenomenon where South Korean equities trade at lower valuations relative to global counterparts. Factors historically contributing to this undervaluation include concerns related to national security, domestic political conditions, corporate governance standards, and certain market practices. Lee noted that progress has been made in addressing some of these issues.

Reflecting on recent market performance, the benchmark KOSPI index surged 15% so far this month, fuelled notably by strong advances in semiconductor firms and automobile manufacturers. This bullish momentum has been linked to growing enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence technologies, following the KOSPI's remarkable 76% rise last year—the best since 1999.

As of Wednesday, the KOSPI hovered around 4,880 points after offsetting earlier declines. Lee commented that the index appears positioned to exceed the 5,000-point mark, driven by factors that were previously unforeseen, specifically the substantial impact of AI and semiconductor sector growth.

These developments reflect the dynamic interplay between currency movements and equity valuations in South Korea, highlighting the importance of policy and market sentiment in shaping investor outlooks.

Risks

  • Continuing weakness in the Japanese yen may exert downward pressure on the won, complicating stabilization efforts.
  • Structural challenges such as national security risks, domestic political dynamics, and corporate governance issues could persist, maintaining the undervaluation of South Korean equities.
  • Currency market volatility remains a risk given the interconnectedness of regional currencies and the limits of domestic policies to counteract external factors.

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