The U.S. dollar stayed under pressure on Thursday, hovering close to a four-year low as markets digested the Federal Reserve's decision to keep its policy rate steady and weighed political developments that have unsettled currency traders.
At 04:30 ET (09:30 GMT) the Dollar Index - which measures the greenback against a basket of six other currencies - was trading 0.2% lower at 96.080, extending a recent period of heavy selling that left the currency near its weakest level since 2022.
Fed pause, upbeat tone
The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75% as widely expected. Chair Jerome Powell described the U.S. economy as "solid" and signalled lower risks to both inflation and employment. Traders interpreted the tone as implying rates could remain on hold for a period, which provided some support after earlier steep declines in the dollar.
Brian Storey, Head of Multi Asset Strategies at Brinker Capital, said the Fed's statement modestly upgraded the Committee's view on the labour market and appeared slightly less concerned about inflationary pressures. He noted that although the Fed did not publish a revised "dot plot" at the meeting, financial markets and Fed funds futures showed a degree of alignment around the prospect of one to two quarter-point rate cuts by year-end.
Political pressure and questions over central bank independence
Currency moves this week have also reflected worries about political interference with monetary policy. The dollar's slide to its lowest level since 2022 and an approximate 2% drop so far this year came amid concern over inconsistent policymaking by U.S. President Donald Trump and anxiety about the central bank's independence.
Those concerns were sharpened after the Trump administration opened a criminal investigation into Powell relating to a long-running renovation of the Fed's buildings. Powell described the probe as politically motivated and declined to respond to questions about it at the post-meeting press conference.
Euro slides back below 1.20
EUR/USD traded 0.2% higher at 1.1971 on Thursday, a move supported by dollar weakness but leaving the pair back below the 1.20 level after it briefly broke through that threshold earlier in the week. The single currency's recent appreciation has prompted concern among European Central Bank policymakers about a potential dampening effect on inflation - a factor that could influence the outlook for monetary policy in the region.
Analysts at ING cautioned that ECB pricing had not yet reflected shifts tied to the euro's strength and suggested markets might await remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde at next Thursday's meeting before committing to that narrative. They added that a further push above 1.20 could increase volatility, with the 1.208 high from Monday potentially in play, while noting that a meaningful break below 1.190 would be needed to conclude the momentum had turned.
Other major crosses
GBP/USD edged up 0.1% to 1.3817, just under levels last seen in October 2021 during the prior session.
USD/SEK rose 0.2% to 8.8460 after the Swedish Riksbank kept its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% for the fourth consecutive month. ING noted the Riksbank has signalled that only major data surprises or significant external events would prompt near-term adjustments and reiterated its long-standing view that the Swedish krona is materially undervalued.
In Asian trade, USD/JPY traded 0.1% lower at 153.27 as the Japanese yen held recently gained ground amid speculation about renewed intervention to support the currency. The pair remained close to a three-month low after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned against excessive volatility in the yen. Reports suggesting U.S. and Japanese officials were considering joint action to buttress the yen kept investors cautious about short positions against the Japanese currency.
USD/CNY was largely unchanged at 6.9462, near its lowest level since May 2023.
AUD/USD climbed 0.5% to 0.7069, approaching a near three-year high. The Australian dollar's strength followed hotter-than-expected Australian inflation data, which increased market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia could consider another interest rate hike.
Market posture and outlook
Currency markets remain sensitive to a mix of central bank commentary, domestic political developments and data surprises. The Fed's more sanguine language combined with a lack of immediate policy action has been read by market participants as supportive of a period of rate stability, while political headlines and coordination talk around the yen have added layers of uncertainty.
Where moves extend will depend on follow-up comments from central bankers and any confirmation of coordinated policy action among governments. For now, traders appear to be balancing the prospect of policy patience in the United States against signs of tightening or intervention elsewhere, producing volatile but directional moves across the major FX crosses.
Summary of moves at a glance
Dollar Index - 96.080, down 0.2% at 04:30 ET
EUR/USD - 1.1971, up 0.2%
GBP/USD - 1.3817, up 0.1%
USD/SEK - 8.8460, up 0.2%
USD/JPY - 153.27, down 0.1%
USD/CNY - 6.9462, largely unchanged
AUD/USD - 0.7069, up 0.5%