The dollar was mostly unchanged on Wednesday as market participants parsed comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that the military campaign against Iran might be concluded within two to three weeks. Initial safe-haven flows into the greenback receded as traders reacted to a mix of messages coming from U.S. and Iranian officials that have kept uncertainty elevated.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar pulled back from earlier lows. The yen, having earlier hit 160.46 per dollar this year, moved back across the psychologically sensitive 160 mark and strengthened to 158.55 per dollar. That move eased some market concerns about potential intervention by Japanese authorities after the currency had tested levels that previously raised such worries.
The euro climbed to its highest level in over a week, trading at $1.1576, up 0.21% on the day. The dollar index - which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the euro and the yen - slipped 0.03% to 99.70 as those shifts materialized.
Tokyo's data provided a modest backdrop for the yen's recovery. The Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan survey showed that business sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers improved in the three months through March. The survey's results suggest that, at least so far, rising uncertainty from the Middle East conflict has not materially eroded corporate morale in Japan.
Sterling also firmed, rising 0.21% to $1.3247. Commodities-linked currencies moved higher against the greenback as well: the Australian dollar strengthened 0.35% to $0.6924, while New Zealand's dollar increased 0.19% to $0.5756.
Since the conflict began in late February, the greenback has attracted a degree of safe-haven demand. The United States' position as a net energy exporter was cited as a factor that leaves it relatively better placed than some other nations to handle potential oil supply disruptions, a dynamic that has supported the currency at times during the recent market turmoil.
Market strategists cautioned, however, that headlines have produced only transient moves so far. "While the headlines were worth a bit of a jump in risk assets, the state of the war and its impact on fundamentals haven’t materially changed yet and the overnight moves are liable to quickly reverse," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.
Trump's remark on Tuesday that military operations against Iran could end in two to three weeks followed a Wall Street Journal report saying the president told aides he was prepared to end the campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, with unclear plans on how to reopen it later. The White House announced that Trump would address the nation at 9 p.m. EDT on Wednesday (0100 GMT on Thursday) to provide an update on Iran.
At the same time, senior U.S. defense officials signaled a more cautionary tenor. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the coming days would be decisive in the campaign and warned Iran that the conflict could intensify if Tehran did not reach an agreement, pointing to signs consistent with escalation.
All of this unfolds ahead of a key domestic macroeconomic release for the United States: Friday's March jobs report. Economists surveyed by Reuters have a median estimate that payrolls increased by 60,000 in March, following an unexpected loss of 92,000 jobs in February. A sharp weakening in the labor market would likely increase expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, an outcome that has been largely priced out as rising oil prices tied to the Iran conflict have raised inflation concerns.
In digital assets, bitcoin edged down 0.03% to $68,177.08, while ethereum slipped 0.08% to $2,103.76.
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