Bank of America has adjusted its foreign exchange forecasts to account for what it describes as "more continued near-term USD strength," moving anticipated dollar outperformance from the first quarter into the second. The bank now forecasts EUR/USD at 1.14 and USD/JPY at 160 by the end of the second quarter.
The revise follows market reassessments of the economic effects stemming from the Middle East energy disruption. BofA cites the combination of higher oil prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty as forces that have supported demand for the U.S. dollar.
In a note from the bank's FX strategists led by John Shin, they said: "Higher energy prices have helped guide USD higher, especially as markets have priced in more hawkish central banks focusing on inflation, including the Federal Reserve." The strategists also highlighted that the war in Iran has changed both near- and medium-term currency outlooks, increasing the potential for further dollar gains, particularly versus currencies of economies that are more dependent on energy imports.
BofA's commodities team contributed to the outlook by revising its crude projection, now expecting Brent crude to average close to $80 in 2026. That anticipated oil price environment is cited as a reinforcing factor for inflationary pressures that have influenced central bank pricing.
Central bank expectations have shifted materially, according to the strategists. Markets are pricing around 10 basis points of additional Federal Reserve tightening in 2026, while pricing for other G10 central banks has moved toward expectations of two to four rate hikes. The strategists noted: "Whether these expected hikes are realized or not will be a key factor for FX, at least through mid-year."
Although BofA has brought forward the period in which it expects the dollar to be stronger into the second quarter, the bank retains a longer-term view that the U.S. currency will likely weaken over the course of 2026, provided energy markets normalize. On that basis, BofA still forecasts EUR/USD at 1.20 by the end of 2026.
The strategists underscore that risks to their FX outlook remain closely linked to the trajectory of the energy shock. A prolonged disruption to supply would probably sustain additional dollar upside as risk premia and inflation pressures persist. Conversely, a faster resolution of supply-related tensions would be likely to see some of the recent dollar gains unwind as war-related risk premia are removed.
Context for markets and sectors
The bank's revised forecasts and the factors it highlights have implications across several market segments. Energy markets are central to the analysis, with crude price expectations feeding into inflation and central bank expectations. Financial markets, including FX and interest rate pricing, are responding to both commodity developments and shifts in anticipated policy paths from major central banks. Economies with high reliance on imported energy are identified as especially vulnerable to currency weakness versus the dollar in this environment.