Currencies April 3, 2026

Asia FX Edges Cautiously as Middle East Tensions Keep Dollar Firm; RBI Measures Support Rupee

Thin holiday liquidity and war-related headlines leave Asian currencies trading in narrow bands while market attention turns to U.S. payrolls data

By Maya Rios
Asia FX Edges Cautiously as Middle East Tensions Keep Dollar Firm; RBI Measures Support Rupee

Asian currencies traded in narrow ranges on Friday as investors remained cautious amid heightened tensions in the Middle East and reduced market liquidity for the Good Friday holiday. The U.S. dollar held steady after a prior session gain, while policy steps from the Reserve Bank of India helped the rupee recover some ground during the week. Market participants awaited U.S. nonfarm payrolls later in the day for further direction on the Federal Reserve outlook.

Key Points

  • Geopolitical tensions involving Iran and comments from the U.S. president kept investors cautious, supporting the dollar and constraining Asian FX moves - impacting currency and oil-sensitive markets.
  • Market liquidity was thin due to the Good Friday holiday, which contributed to subdued intraday volatility across major Asian currency pairs - affecting FX markets and short-term trading strategies.
  • Reserve Bank of India measures capped banks’ net open FX positions and barred non-deliverable forwards, prompting an unwinding of speculative positions and supporting a weekly rupee recovery - relevant to Indian financial markets and import-dependent sectors.

Asian currency markets showed limited movement on Friday, with trading confined to tight ranges as thin holiday liquidity and concerns over potential escalation of the Middle East conflict kept investors on edge.

The U.S. dollar maintained its recent strength, holding broadly steady after advancing 0.4% in the previous session. That earlier uptick followed comments from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Iran, which prompted a pickup in global risk aversion.

Geopolitical headlines remained the dominant influence. President Trump said Washington could step up military action in the coming weeks and, in a separate late post, warned U.S. forces might target critical infrastructure including bridges and power plants. Those remarks left markets on alert for further developments.

There were, however, some signs of restrained easing in market fears. Iran said it was coordinating with Oman on a framework to manage shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that reduced some worries about supply disruptions along an important oil transit route.

Currency moves across the region were generally muted. The Japanese yen traded flat against the dollar, with USD/JPY around 159.63 yen and hovering near the psychologically important 160-per-dollar level. Japan's finance minister cautioned that authorities stood ready to intervene against speculative activity in the foreign exchange market as volatility rose.

Other major Asian pairs showed limited volatility. USD/KRW and USD/SGD remained largely unchanged, and AUD/USD traded close to flat for the session.

The Indian rupee, which earlier in the week hit a record low of 95.22 per dollar, was slightly weaker on the day with USD/INR at 92.71, a 0.3% move. Despite that intraday weakening, the rupee was on track to finish the week more than 2% stronger against the U.S. dollar after policy steps from the Reserve Bank of India helped stabilize the onshore market.

The RBI introduced measures that capped banks' net open foreign exchange positions and prohibited them from offering non-deliverable forwards to clients. Those steps forced an unwinding of large speculative positions and prompted dollar selling in the onshore market, supporting the rupee's recovery across the week.

China's onshore dollar pair, USD/CNY, inched down about 0.1% on Friday. Data released earlier showed a slowdown in Chinese services-sector growth for March: the Ratingdog Services PMI slipped to 52.1 from February's 33-month high of 56.7.

With regional markets operating in subdued conditions for the holiday, investors shifted focus to upcoming U.S. labor market data. Nonfarm payrolls due later in the day were expected to offer additional information relevant to the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook and could influence dollar direction.


Market context

  • Thin liquidity related to the Good Friday holiday contributed to smaller-than-normal price swings across Asian currency markets.
  • Geopolitical statements from the U.S. president on Iran kept risk sentiment cautious, sustaining earlier dollar gains.
  • Reserve Bank of India interventions removed some speculative pressure on the rupee and were a key factor in its weekly recovery.

Risks

  • Escalation in the Middle East conflict could amplify risk aversion and drive further dollar strength, with potential consequences for global currencies and commodity-linked markets.
  • Market sensitivity to political or regulatory intervention, such as the RBI's recent actions or warnings from Japan’s finance minister, could trigger abrupt moves in currency markets if perceived as unexpected.
  • Upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls data may alter expectations for Federal Reserve policy and influence dollar direction; a surprise reading could increase volatility across FX and interest-rate sensitive sectors.

More from Currencies

Pound Slides as Dollar Strengthens Amid Middle East Escalation and Bailey Remarks Apr 2, 2026 Trump’s Stark Warnings on Iran Trigger Broad Risk-Off Move in Markets Apr 2, 2026 RBI’s Move to Block NDF Sales Raises Exit Costs for Banks Holding Arbitrage Trades Apr 2, 2026 Asian Currencies Slip as Dollar Strengthens After Trump Signals Escalation in Middle East Apr 1, 2026 ING Sees Greater Downside for UK Rates Than Eurozone, Flags Energy Shock as Key Factor Apr 1, 2026