By Ajmal Hussain
Bernstein's research team is optimistic that Bitcoin has passed its most acute phase of correction and is positioned for upside, according to a note released Tuesday. Analyst Gautam Chhugani wrote that the firm believes "Bitcoin has found its trough and is now heading higher," and the firm has kept its year-end 2026 price objective of $150,000 for the token.
The note underscores the role of Strategy, described as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, in providing a form of market stability during recent drawdowns. Bernstein points to Strategy's scale, noting the firm now controls 3.6% of the total Bitcoin supply, which the report says is equivalent to $53.5 billion in net asset value.
Bernstein highlights how Strategy navigated the pullback from Bitcoin's $125,000 peak in late 2025. The analysts argue that fears about potential forced balance-sheet liquidations were misplaced. Instead, the research states that "Strategy has further scaled its Bitcoin treasury," backing that claim with data showing Strategy raised $7.3 billion year-to-date in 2026 through issuances of common and preferred equity even as Bitcoin declined 19% over the same period.
A central feature of Strategy's capital plan is its preferred instrument, STRC. Bernstein notes that STRC "offers low volatility (below 2%) with high fixed coupon paid monthly," and adds that increasing trading volumes help reduce dilution pressure on Strategy's equity.
The firm also points to Bitcoin's relative performance during the Iran conflict, saying the token has outperformed gold by 25%. Bernstein attributes that outperformance to Bitcoin's "global cross-border portability and censorship resistance," as cited in the note.
On Strategy's equities, Bernstein retains an Outperform rating and a $450 price target. The firm's outlook for Bitcoin and its endorsement of Strategy reflect a thesis that corporate adoption and well-capitalized treasuries can act as supportive forces for the market.
Context and implications
Bernstein's stance ties a bullish medium-term view on Bitcoin to the continued strategic accumulation of the token by a large corporate holder. The report emphasizes capital-raising activity and preferred instruments as mechanisms that allowed Strategy to increase its holdings without triggering the sort of forced sales that some market participants had feared.
While the note projects upside, it is grounded in observable metrics: a retained $150,000 year-end 2026 Bitcoin price target, Strategy's 3.6% share of total supply equating to $53.5 billion NAV, $7.3 billion raised by Strategy in 2026, and the 19% decline in Bitcoin over the same timeframe.
Bottom line - Bernstein presents a cautiously optimistic case: Bitcoin has likely bottomed according to its analysis, and Strategy's balance-sheet actions are central to that view.