HOUSTON, March 26 - Officials from the United States government used the annual CERAWeek industry conference to convey confidence that the recent spike in fuel prices tied to the war in Iran would be temporary, highlighting record U.S. energy production and steps to expand supply. Attendees from Asia, the Middle East and Europe painted a contrasting picture, warning that damage from the conflict has produced the worst oil and gas disruption in decades and that the supply shock could persist.
The divergence in tone at the Houston conference reflected differing political calculations. In Washington, senior cabinet members emphasized the capacity of American consumers to weather a short-lived price shock. Their messaging also seeks to blunt domestic political pressure on the White House as the president’s popularity has weakened while he continues to assert that the war is essentially won and that the financial pain will be brief.
Outside the United States, executives and government officials described a more troubling reality on the ground. Iran has continued to strike neighboring states with missiles and drones and has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. The closure has stopped about one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies from moving through a key chokepoint, lifting world oil prices above $100 a barrel and already slowing the global economy.
Some economies in Asia that rely heavily on Middle East energy have confronted tangible fuel shortages and have adopted emergency measures such as encouraging employees to work from home. European countries are bracing for shortages to extend into next month. Industry executives warned that the disruption from the conflict could outlast the fighting itself because Iranian strikes and countermeasures have damaged refineries, liquefied natural gas facilities and other critical infrastructure.
Political ramifications at home were on display as well. The president’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest level since his return to the White House, according to a recent national poll, amid widespread public discontent over rapidly rising pump prices and unease about the war. The governing party faces a hard fight to preserve narrow congressional majorities in the upcoming midterm elections, and affordability has become a central campaign issue.
Speaking at the conference, the U.S. Energy Secretary emphasized market dynamics and policy actions intended to bolster supply. "Markets do what markets do," he said in a keynote address, adding that price increases send signals for producers to raise output and that prices have not yet risen enough to trigger significant demand destruction. The secretary outlined plans to expand U.S. liquefied natural gas exports, discourage the retirement of coal-fired power plants, and streamline regulatory processes for new nuclear projects.
"Every day our mission remains clear: grow energy, improve American lives, strengthen American security and strengthen the world," the secretary said.
The Interior Secretary, speaking on the sidelines, acknowledged the burden higher fuel prices are placing on households but characterized the effect as transitory. "President Donald Trump is super empathetic, as we all are, about the fact that there’s been a temporary increase in pricing," he said.
Voices from the rest of the globe sounded a different alarm. Senior energy executives and foreign officials warned that even if hostilities subside, repair of damaged facilities and the restoration of normal flows could take months. "This is raising the cost of living for those who can least afford it and slowing economic growth everywhere. From factories to farms to families around the world, the human cost is mounting by the day," said Sultan Al Jaber, chief executive of Abu Dhabi’s state energy company, speaking by videolink. He noted that the UAE and other Gulf states have been targeted by Iranian missiles and drones and have curtailed exports because they cannot use the Strait of Hormuz.
Across Asia, officials outlined acute measures to manage constrained supplies. Japan’s vice minister for international affairs called emergency responses "not enough" to ease market strain and said Tokyo had asked the International Energy Agency for an additional release from strategic petroleum reserves. Japan is also tapping public funds to subsidize rising gasoline costs and is considering interventions in oil futures markets to support the yen.
Other governments have taken more urgent steps. The Philippines declared a state of emergency after officials reported the nation had only 45 days of oil on hand as of March 20. South Korea urged residents to conserve energy by shortening showers, charging phones during daylight hours, and running high-power appliances like vacuums on weekends to spread demand.
Industry chiefs warned that disruptions would ripple toward Europe if the conflict persisted. "Countries cannot have national security without energy security," the chief executive of a major oil company said, cautioning that shortages would reach Europe in April if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed. Consultancy estimates presented at the conference suggested that repairing war damage to refineries, LNG plants and other facilities could cost roughly $25 billion, and that even undamaged facilities would take months to restart.
Operational recovery timelines varied by producer. Kuwait’s oil company chief said the country would need three to five months to return crude output to pre-war levels. The CEO of a large U.S. oil company remarked that the market tightness resulting from the strait’s closure had yet to be fully reflected in forward oil prices and warned that it would take time for the market to rebalance.
Firms across the U.S. shale sector also signaled limits to how quickly American production could expand in response. Executives noted that most operators have locked in capital spending plans for the year and that sustained prices above $100 a barrel would likely need to persist for months before many companies would alter drilling programs to materially increase output.
The exchange of views at CERAWeek underscored a core tension in the current energy landscape: U.S. officials advocating a message of near-term resilience and domestic supply growth, while global industry and foreign government representatives cautioned that infrastructure damage and the closure of a critical maritime route have produced a supply shock with potentially long-lived effects.