Global liquefied natural gas production is expected to experience a significant upturn beginning in 2026, signaling the end of stringent supply constraints that have persisted following disruptions since the 2022 conflict in Ukraine. Market analysts indicate that this influx of additional LNG volumes will depress prices, which may in turn drive increased consumption among emerging economies and established importers alike.
The year 2026 represents a critical transitional point in the LNG sector, where market tightness is anticipated to give way to abundant availability. Expert commentary from Kpler highlights that despite the advent of the winter season and associated storage demands, especially in Europe, the supply level should remain sufficient to meet market requirements.
Major consultancy groups including S&P Global Energy, Kpler, and Rystad Energy project that new LNG capacity additions will amount to no less than 35 million metric tons in 2026 alone. These expansions predominantly originate from large-scale projects situated in the United States and Qatar, contributing to a year-over-year global supply increase estimated at around 10%. The forecasted total supply range for 2026 spans from approximately 460 million to 484 million metric tons, as reported by Kpler, Rystad, ICIS, and Rabobank.
Key contributors to this supply growth include the Golden Pass LNG facility on the U.S. Gulf Coast and the extensive North Field expansion project in Qatar. Additionally, increased production will be seen from U.S.-based projects Corpus Christi and Plaquemines LNG, alongside Canada’s LNG Canada facility and offshore projects such as Greater Tortue Ahmeyim located between Senegal and Mauritania.
The anticipated supply surplus is expected to exert downward pressure on global LNG prices. Price forecasts from Rystad, Kpler, and Rabobank suggest that the Asian spot LNG price could average between $9.50 and $9.90 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2026, a decline from an estimated average of $12.45 per mmBtu in 2025. Similarly, European gas prices benchmarked at the Netherlands’ Title Transfer Facility (TTF) are predicted to decrease to a range of $9.50 to $9.74 per mmBtu this year, falling from an average of $14.20 in 2025.
This narrowing price differential between Asian and European LNG and the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark is expected to compress U.S. LNG export profit margins. Analysts from Vortexa, Rabobank, and S&P Global Energy observe that this compression occurs alongside rising feedgas input costs, presenting challenges to U.S. exporters.
On the demand side, Asian LNG consumption, which contracted in 2025 due to sensitivity to prices and competition from alternative energy sources, is forecasted to rebound by roughly 4% to 7% in 2026. This recovery is largely driven by increased imports from China and India, fueled by the affordability of spot LNG and strategies involving fuel switching and inventory rebuilding, according to outlooks from Rystad, Kpler, and S&P Global Energy.
New import contracts are set to contribute further to rising demand. Kpler analyst Nelson Xiong projects that Chinese LNG consumption could rise by 6 to 7 million tons, while India could see growth of about 5 million tons. A significant portion of this contracted supply is anticipated for domestic use within these countries.
China’s import volumes in 2025 declined due to subdued industrial activity, the impact of U.S. tariffs, and strengthened domestic and pipeline gas supplies. Although imports are expected to increase by 12% to around 76.5 million tons in 2026, this may remain below 2024 levels as China emphasizes boosting its domestic production capabilities. Rystad Energy’s Ole Dramdal suggests that while China’s contracted LNG capacity will exceed 80 million tons annually, a considerable surplus volume is likely to be returned to the market, potentially benefiting countries such as Turkey, Malaysia, and Taiwan, whose imports collectively are anticipated to increase by 6.2 million tons in 2026.
Europe, having emerged as a significant consumer of LNG following reductions in Russian gas supplies after Russia’s large-scale military actions in Ukraine, is expected to further increase its LNG intake. Projections from Kpler anticipate European imports to grow by 22 million tons in 2026, with Rystad estimating a 20 million-ton rise, and Energy Aspects and ICIS expecting increases near 13 million tons.
The boost in European LNG demand stems from various factors, including the need to replenish inventories following a low winter stockpile, heightened gas consumption domestically due to moderated average TTF prices, increased demand from Turkey, and Europe’s pivotal function as a balancing market for the rising volumes of LNG emerging from the Atlantic basin.
As Europe continues to phase out Russian piped gas and LNG during 2026, LNG shipments previously destined for projects such as the Yamal LNG facility in Russia are poised to be redirected, likely to markets including Turkey and Egypt. Meanwhile, Europe intends to compensate for the lost Russian volumes primarily through augmented imports from the Atlantic basin supply sources.