Stifel's recent analysis estimates that UK North Sea gas production provided approximately
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Stifel calculated that, in 2025, domestic North Sea output contributed about 45% of the United Kingdom's gas supply. Norwegian piped deliveries supplied roughly 35%, and imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) accounted for the remaining 20% of the gas mix that year. Using Office for National Statistics and Department for Energy Security and Net Zero data, Stifel found that, over the past three years, imported LNG cost on average 18 pence per therm more than gas priced at the UK National Balancing Point.
Looking at a longer window from 2018 through 2025, imported LNG averaged 91 pence per therm while UK NBP gas averaged 80 pence per therm, a premium for LNG equivalent to about 13%. That sustained differential is the basis for Stifel's calculation that North Sea production saved the country around
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Stifel also said that savings tied to domestic supply are likely to grow in 2026 if global LNG prices climb in response to the Persian Gulf conflict. The firm highlighted that reforms to the government's windfall tax on North Sea producers could help stabilise near-term production; in prior research Stifel estimated that tax reform might unlock an additional
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Energy demand projections cited by Stifel and official bodies indicate gas will remain a material part of the UK energy system even under net zero planning. The Climate Change Commission's projection cited in the analysis forecasts UK energy consumption of about 12 billion barrels of oil equivalent by 2050 under a net zero scenario. Stifel points out that only 25% of current UK gas is consumed for electricity generation, meaning the government's Clean Power 2030 ambitions alone will not remove the need for gas.
Official planning assumes a continuing role for gas to back up variable renewables: the government projects the UK will need around 35 gigawatts of gas-fired capacity beyond 2030 for system support. Complementary modelling from the National Energy System Operator - its Holistic Transition Net Zero scenario - suggests that even with more than 180 gigawatts of renewable generation by 2035, the UK would still require some 40 billion cubic metres of gas each year.
At the same time, the UK is preparing to expand LNG import capacity, while retaining the windfall tax applied to domestic gas production. Those twin trends - bolstering import infrastructure while keeping domestic taxation in place - are likely to shape the balance between dependence on imported supplies and incentives for local production.