OPEC+ is widely expected to maintain its halt on further oil production increases for March when the grouping convenes on Sunday, several delegates said. The announcement comes as crude benchmarks trade above $70 a barrel and Brent approaches almost $72, its strongest level since August.
Those speaking about the meeting - five delegates in total, with three of them noting the scope of likely action - said they did not anticipate decisions extending beyond March. The delegates asked not to be identified because they were not authorised to speak publicly.
The meeting brings together eight OPEC+ members that together account for roughly half of global crude output: Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman. Earlier, these eight producers increased production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day covering the period from April through December 2025 - a volume roughly equivalent to 3% of global demand - and subsequently froze any further planned increases for January through March 2026, citing seasonally weaker consumption.
Also scheduled for Sunday is a session of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), a separate OPEC+ panel that reviews market conditions. The JMMC does not have formal decision-making authority over production policy, delegates said. OPEC and authorities in Saudi Arabia and Russia did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Market participants point to heightened geopolitical risks as a driver of the recent price rise. Crude strengthened on concern that the United States might carry out a military strike on Iran, an OPEC member. U.S. actions have included intensified pressure on Tehran over its nuclear programme, threats of military action and the deployment of a U.S. naval group to the region. Washington has also imposed extensive sanctions aimed at curbing Iranian oil revenue, which is a crucial source of state funding.
In related developments, U.S. sources said on Thursday that President Donald Trump is weighing targeted strikes on security officials and senior figures in Iran, measures described as intended to stir unrest and potentially weaken the country's ruling system. Such possibilities have added to concerns about supply security in oil markets.
Price support has also been evident from supply-side disruptions in Kazakhstan, where the oil sector has faced a series of operational interruptions in recent months. Kazakhstan announced on Wednesday that it was restarting the large Tengiz oilfield in stages, reflecting a phased recovery from those disruptions.
Traders and analysts will be watching Sunday’s meetings for any change in tone or signal about policy beyond March, but the current expectation from several delegates is that the pause will remain in place at least through the near term.