Oil futures declined in Asian trade on Tuesday amid a market split between geopolitical risk tied to the U.S.-Iran standoff and concerns over weather-related production losses inside the United States. While recent sessions had seen crude climb on worries about disruption, fresh supply signals helped curb gains.
Price movements
By 21:20 ET (02:20 GMT), Brent crude for March delivery was down 0.6% at $65.22 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate futures fell 0.5% to $60.33 a barrel.
Geopolitical developments focus attention
Market participants were watching the Middle East after a U.S. aircraft carrier and multiple destroyers arrived in the region over the weekend. The deployment followed comments by former President Trump that the U.S. had an "armada" en route to Iran - comments he said he hoped would not need to be acted on. The movement of naval assets came amid threats from Trump directed at Iran to "stop killing protesters" during nationwide demonstrations. Those protests have been reported as cooling in recent weeks, and Mr. Trump has reportedly softened his tone toward the country.
U.S. winter storm and production losses
At the same time, a severe snowstorm in the United States caused operational disruptions over the weekend. The storm was seen as taking as much as 2 million barrels of oil production offline and also put strain on the country's electric grid. Traders and analysts were focused on whether any extended outages would materially tighten overall crude supplies.
Kazakhstan signals restart at Tengiz
Kazakh officials said on Monday the Tengiz field - the country's largest oil producing facility - is set to resume output after a fire and power outage halted production. Reporting from Reuters indicated that initial production volumes at Tengiz were expected to be low, and the restart comes while a force majeure on CPC Blend exports remains in place.
Kazakhstan was described as the world’s 12th largest producer of oil, and is also a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies. The group is slated to leave production levels unchanged at an upcoming February 1 meeting. According to the reporting, the OPEC had hiked production steadily through 2025 and then announced a pause late in the year to address prolonged weakness in crude prices.
Market balance
In short, the market is balancing near-term disruption risks from geopolitical tension and U.S. weather against signs of returning supply from Kazakhstan. Traders appear to be weighing whether restarts such as Tengiz can offset storm-related outages and whether diplomatic developments will alter risk premia tied to Middle East supply.
Note: Coverage is based on available reports and official statements referenced in market reporting; the article does not introduce additional data or claims beyond those sources.