Commodities February 4, 2026

Oil jumps after reported breakdown in planned U.S.-Iran talks

Crude benchmarks climb as diplomatic standoff over meeting format raises geopolitical risk

By Derek Hwang
Oil jumps after reported breakdown in planned U.S.-Iran talks

Oil prices climbed sharply after reports indicated planned talks between the United States and Iran were at risk of collapsing over disagreement on the meeting format and location. U.S. crude rose about 3.5% to above $65.30 a barrel and Brent gained roughly 3.4% to $69.60 a barrel as of mid-afternoon ET. The reported impasse follows heightened tensions after a U.S. military engagement with an Iranian drone and comments from U.S. leadership about potential military action.

Key Points

  • Reported disagreement over meeting location and format between the U.S. and Iran pushed oil prices higher.
  • U.S. crude rose about 3.5% to above $65.30 a barrel; Brent rose about 3.4% to $69.60 a barrel as of 1:35 p.m. ET.
  • Sectors likely affected include energy markets, regional maritime and defense operations, and oil-sensitive financial instruments.

Oil markets moved higher on Wednesday following reports that negotiations scheduled between the United States and Iran might not proceed as planned, pushing U.S. crude and Brent prices up by roughly 3.5% and 3.4%, respectively.

By 1:35 p.m. ET, U.S. crude had climbed $2.12, or about 3.5%, trading above $65.30 a barrel. Global benchmark Brent increased $2.28, or 3.4%, to $69.60 a barrel.

The rise in prices followed an Axios report that said the two countries disagreed over where and how a meeting set for Friday would be conducted. Both sides initially agreed to an Istanbul meeting with other Middle East countries participating as observers, the report said. Tehran subsequently sought to change the arrangement to a bilateral meeting in Oman. U.S. officials reportedly considered that proposal but ultimately rejected it, and Iran was said to be unwilling to return to the original Istanbul format.

Axios added that talks could still occur this week or next if Iran consents to revert to the earlier plan for the meeting.

Market participants noted the diplomatic stand-off comes amid elevated regional tensions. U.S. military authorities reported on Tuesday that they had shot down an Iranian drone that approached the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier. Separately, the U.S. President has warned of possible military strikes against Iran should Tehran fail to accept terms governing its nuclear program.

The combination of a potential diplomatic collapse and recent military incidents appears to have lifted near-term risk premia on oil, contributing to the midafternoon gains in crude benchmarks.


Summary of events

  • Reported disagreement over meeting location and format between the U.S. and Iran prompted a spike in oil prices.
  • U.S. crude rose $2.12 to above $65.30 a barrel; Brent rose $2.28 to $69.60 a barrel as of 1:35 p.m. ET.
  • Heightened tensions include a U.S. military downing of an Iranian drone and presidential warnings of military action if Iran does not agree to nuclear terms.

The situation remains fluid. According to the reporting, a rescheduled meeting could still take place if Tehran agrees to the original Istanbul format.

Risks

  • Diplomatic talks could collapse entirely if Iran and U.S. cannot agree on meeting format, sustaining higher oil price volatility - impacting energy markets and inflation-sensitive sectors.
  • Escalation following military incidents, such as the reported downing of an Iranian drone near the USS Abraham Lincoln, could further disrupt oil markets and regional shipping routes.
  • Uncertainty around the timing or format of negotiations creates ongoing price risk for commodity and financial markets dependent on stable oil supply expectations.

More from Commodities

U.S. Gasoline Inventories Climb to Highest Level Since June 2020 Feb 4, 2026 Russian Oil Receipts Collapse to Five-Year Low in January Feb 4, 2026 AI-driven shakeup widens tech divergence as retailers and commodities react Feb 4, 2026 Venezuela Aims to Be Known for Output, Not Just Reserves, Adviser Says Feb 4, 2026 Senators Move to Reauthorize Ex-Im Bank with $70 Billion Boost to Back Critical Minerals Push Feb 4, 2026