Commodities March 31, 2026

Oil Holds Near $104/bbl as U.S., Iran Signal Possible Exit While Hormuz Stays Restricted

Markets weigh mixed diplomatic cues after U.S. president signals withdrawal timeline even as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed

By Nina Shah
Oil Holds Near $104/bbl as U.S., Iran Signal Possible Exit While Hormuz Stays Restricted

Oil prices remained close to multi-year highs in Asian trade as investors digested conflicting messages about a possible end to the Iran conflict. Benchmark crude contracts rose modestly, while market participants balanced hopes for a ceasefire against continuing supply disruptions from a sharply reduced flow through the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Points

  • Benchmark crude futures rose modestly in Asian trading: June Brent at $104.47/bbl (+0.5%) and May WTI at $102.21/bbl (+0.8%).
  • Conflicting political signals: U.S. president indicated a potential withdrawal within "two to three weeks" and willingness to end the campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed; Iranian state media said President Masoud Pezeshkian signalled readiness to end the war while reiterating key demands.
  • The Strait of Hormuz disruption - affecting roughly a fifth of global oil supply - and comments from the American Petroleum Institute CEO that reopening the strait is "the critical piece" underpin ongoing supply concerns; sectors impacted include energy markets, shipping/logistics and major oil-consuming regions.

Oil traded near multi-year highs in Asian hours as traders parsed contradictory signals about the Iran conflict and its implications for global supply.

As of 20:18 ET (00:18 GMT), Brent futures for June delivery were up 0.5% at $104.47 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery gained 0.8% to $102.21 per barrel.

In the prior session, the May Brent contract had settled roughly 5% higher at $118.31 a barrel, while the May WTI contract closed lower at $101.62. Market participants noted that Brent posted a record monthly increase of more than 63% in March, a performance driven by concerns around prolonged supply interruptions.


Political signals were mixed. The U.S. president said on Tuesday that Washington could withdraw from the conflict within "two to three weeks," and added that "Iran doesn't have to make a deal to end the conflict." A separate report indicated the president told aides he was prepared to conclude the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

On Tehran's side, state media quoted President Masoud Pezeshkian as saying Iran was prepared to end the war, while he reiterated several key demands. Those remarks suggested that negotiations could take place but would be subject to conditions.

Despite the diplomatic chatter, price movements were muted as traders balanced the potential for a ceasefire against ongoing disruptions to supply. The Strait of Hormuz - a vital conduit responsible for roughly a fifth of global oil flows - has experienced a dramatic collapse in tanker traffic amid the conflict, sharply curtailing exports and maintaining upward pressure on prices.

Adding to concerns about structural supply risk, Mike Sommers, chief executive officer of the American Petroleum Institute, highlighted the central importance of reopening the strait. Sommers called reopening the strait "the critical piece" to stabilise global markets, warning that without restored flows oil prices would continue to rise across major consuming regions.


The combination of sustained reductions in physical flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of a phased U.S. military withdrawal has left oil markets navigating a complex mix of optimism and caution. Traders are therefore weighing near-term diplomatic developments against the immediate impact of constrained exports.

With prices elevated, market-watchers are monitoring both the pace of any diplomatic progress and indicators of actual restoration of tanker movements through the strait. Until flows visibly recover, the structural supply risk flagged by industry leadership is likely to remain a key driver of market direction.


Note: This report reflects market prices and quotes cited above and statements attributed to public figures and industry officials in the context provided.

Risks

  • Continued closure or constrained traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could sustain upward pressure on crude prices, affecting energy producers, refiners and end consumers in major consuming regions.
  • Diplomatic progress that remains conditional may not immediately restore tanker flows; uncertainty about the timing and completeness of any reopening poses risk to market stability.
  • A premature expectation of a rapid resolution could be met by persistent physical supply disruptions, creating volatility for commodity markets and related financial exposures in energy-focused portfolios.

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