Commodities March 25, 2026

Oil edges up as Tehran reviews U.S. proposal amid persistent uncertainty

Brent and WTI gain in Asian trade while markets weigh mixed signals on de-escalation in the Middle East

By Derek Hwang
Oil edges up as Tehran reviews U.S. proposal amid persistent uncertainty

Oil prices ticked higher in Asian trade on Thursday as Tehran considered a U.S.-backed plan to halt hostilities, yet persistent ambiguity kept market nerves taut. Brent for May delivery rose to $103.02 a barrel and U.S. crude climbed to $91.20, recovering from steep losses the previous session even as Iran denied direct talks with Washington and key differences remain.

Key Points

  • Brent futures for May rose 0.8% to $103.02 per barrel; WTI gained 1% to $91.20 per barrel at 20:31 ET (00:31 GMT). Sectors impacted: energy, commodities trading.
  • Iran is reportedly reviewing a U.S.-backed proposal to halt hostilities but has not formally accepted it and denied direct negotiations with Washington. Sectors impacted: geopolitics, energy markets.
  • Market volatility remains high after recent disruptions to Gulf energy flows and a prior surge in Brent above $119 a barrel. Sectors impacted: shipping, oil and gas supply chains.

Oil markets moved cautiously higher in Asian trading on Thursday as reports emerged that Iran was reviewing a U.S.-backed proposal intended to end the conflict, though major uncertainties persisted.

At 20:31 ET (00:31 GMT), Brent futures for May delivery were up 0.8% at $103.02 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude gained 1% to $91.20 per barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen by more than 2% in the prior session.

Reports that Tehran was examining a U.S.-supported plan to halt hostilities tempered some of the recent geopolitical risk premium built into crude. Iran has not formally accepted the proposal, yet officials stopped short of an outright rejection. That ambiguous response has left traders hopeful for a route toward de-escalation while remaining cautious.

At the same time, Iranian authorities publicly denied engaging in direct negotiations with Washington and indicated that significant differences between the parties endure. That lack of clarity kept volatility elevated and trading subdued on Thursday.

Market participants have experienced pronounced swings in prices in recent weeks after the conflict disrupted energy flows from the Gulf, a key region for global crude supplies. Brent had climbed above $119 a barrel earlier this month amid concerns over potential supply outages.

Attention remains focused on the Strait of Hormuz, an essential shipping lane that carries roughly a fifth of the world\'s oil shipments. Any further threat to transits through that waterway is widely seen as likely to prompt additional price spikes.

Prices eased on Wednesday after reports of possible negotiations reduced part of the geopolitical risk premium that had been factored into crude. Investors are also watching signals out of Washington, where officials have warned that stronger measures could follow if Iran does not engage constructively. Those warnings add another layer of uncertainty to the outlook.


Bottom line: A tentative review of a U.S.-backed proposal in Tehran nudged oil prices higher on Thursday, but conflicting statements and unresolved differences have left the market on edge.

Risks

  • Persisting ambiguity over Iran's position and unresolved differences could sustain price volatility and uncertainty for energy markets. Affected sectors: oil producers, traders, refiners.
  • Any renewed threat to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly a fifth of global oil shipments, could trigger further price spikes and disrupt supply chains. Affected sectors: tanker operators, global oil supply.
  • Potential for stronger measures from Washington if Iran does not engage constructively adds policy risk that could influence market sentiment and trading. Affected sectors: financial markets, energy investment planning.

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