Commodities January 27, 2026

Oil Edges Higher as U.S. Cold Snap Curtails Output and Dollar Weakens

Extreme winter weather in the United States and a softer dollar lift crude; markets also watch U.S.-Iran tensions and a key Fed policy signal

By Maya Rios
Oil Edges Higher as U.S. Cold Snap Curtails Output and Dollar Weakens

Oil prices ticked up in Asian trading after extreme cold across the United States disrupted production and exports, tightening near-term supplies. A weakening dollar supported commodity demand, while geopolitical remarks about U.S. deployments to the Middle East and an impending Federal Reserve policy statement kept markets alert.

Key Points

  • Severe winter weather in the United States disrupted crude production and forced U.S. Gulf Coast exports to slump to zero, tightening near-term supply.
  • Brent March futures rose 0.1% to $67.66 a barrel and WTI rose 0.2% to $62.53 a barrel by 20:49 ET (01:49 GMT), supported by supply concerns and a weaker dollar.
  • Broader market drivers include a softer dollar and geopolitical remarks about additional U.S. deployments to the Middle East; the Federal Reserve's imminent rate decision and forward guidance are also being closely watched. Sectors impacted include oil and gas producers, commodity markets, and currency markets.

Oil markets advanced in Asian trade on Wednesday, building on gains from the previous session as severe winter weather in the United States curtailed production and pressured exports, underpinning expectations of tighter supplies in the near term. A sliding U.S. dollar added support to crude, even as traders monitored geopolitical remarks about additional U.S. forces headed to the Middle East and awaited guidance from the Federal Reserve.

Prices and trading

Brent futures for March gained 0.1% to $67.66 a barrel - a level described as a near four-month high - while West Texas Intermediate front-month futures rose 0.2% to $62.53 a barrel by 20:49 ET (01:49 GMT).

Weather-driven supply tightness

Market participants attributed much of this week's price appreciation to a severe winter storm that swept across broad sections of the United States and disrupted crude production in several regions. The storm brought heavy snowfall and subzero temperatures to large swathes of the country, creating operational challenges.

Export activity from the U.S. Gulf Coast was hit particularly hard, with flows reported to have fallen to zero as the weather forced shutdowns. Reuters estimates indicated roughly 2 million barrels per day were affected over the weekend, a scale of disruption that prompted traders to reposition for notable drawdowns in U.S. oil inventories in coming weeks.

Inventory data and expectations

Wednesday evening attention focused on industry inventory signals following a surprise draw reported by the American Petroleum Institute. API data released on Tuesday evening showed U.S. oil inventories unexpectedly declined by about 0.25 million barrels last week, contrasting with market expectations for a build of 1.45 million barrels. The API figure is typically followed by an official government inventory release, which was due later on Wednesday.

Currency moves and central bank watching

Oil prices received further support from a weaker dollar, which fell to a near four-year low on Tuesday. A softer greenback tends to make dollar-priced commodities more attractive to holders of other currencies, broadening demand. The dollar's slide occurred amid investor unease over U.S. economic uncertainty, the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and the administration's intermittent trade and geopolitical policy actions.

The Federal Reserve was widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the end of a meeting later in the day, with market attention centered on any signals from Chair Jerome Powell about the likely path of policy through the year.

Geopolitical backdrop

Beyond weather and macro considerations, market attention was drawn to remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump indicating a second armada was being sent to the Middle East. Traders continued to weigh the potential for heightened tensions in the region when assessing risk premia in crude prices.

Overall, the combination of weather-related supply disruptions in the United States, a softer dollar, and geopolitical developments contributed to the upward pressure on crude during early Asian trading on Wednesday.

Risks

  • Further production disruptions from extreme winter weather could continue to tighten supplies and pressure energy producers and logistics operators.
  • Escalation of geopolitical tensions linked to reported U.S. deployments to the Middle East could add a risk premium to crude prices, affecting upstream and trading sectors.
  • Volatility around the Federal Reserve's policy signals and the dollar's movement may influence commodity prices and currency-sensitive financial positions.

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